Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

[VeeDubTDI]

Tesla updated their Supercharger location map this week with their planned sites for 2018. The network is growing rapidly, and most of the additions in 2018 will be new Supercharger stations in and around major urban areas. http://www.tesla.com/findus

Additionally, Tesla has announced a new type of Supercharger for these urban installations. The new unit is significantly smaller in size and provides 72 kW of dedicated power to the vehicle that is plugged into it. That is compared to the existing highway Superchargers that split power their between two stations. https://electrek.co/2017/09/11/first-look-tesla-new-supercharger-station/

I'm going to use pkhoury as an example for the expanding Supercharger network, since in the past, he has expressed interest in Supercharger locations around him. There are currently 7 active Supercharger sites within 200 miles of his location:

• Junction, TX: 81 miles
• San Marcos, TX: 98 miles
• Three Rivers, TX: 136 miles
• Flatonia, TX: 151 miles
• Ozona, TX: 171 miles
• Columbus, TX: 185 miles
• Victoria, TX: 185 miles

Coming in 2017 and 2018:

• Fredericksburg, TX: 51 miles
• Walden Meadows, San Antonio, TX: 52 miles
• Downtown San Antonio, TX: 68 miles
• Dilley, TX: 98 miles
• Austin, TX: 133 miles
• Cedar Park, TX: 153 miles
• San Angelo, TX: 177 miles
• Laredo, TX: 182 miles

By the end of 2018, it should be possible to travel nearly all of the continental US via the Supercharger network. Tesla also plans to build out the entire Trans Canada Highway in 2018, enabling travel from Vancouver to Nova Scotia.

 

[bizzle]

Perhaps you should. Compared to an EV, it probably isn't as cheap to run as you may think it is.
If we rounded up the EPA average on your car 40 MPG combined, that's 6,250 gallons of diesel. Even at 2 bucks per gallon; that's $12,500 in fuel alone not counting oil changes, filters, timing belts, etc.
I went though all my old bills on my Audi A4 before I sold it. My fuel and engine-related maintenance brought my operating costs to about $25K over the 110,000 miles I drove it.

FYI, I have an eGolf, as well and a 5kW solar system.

Just using your numbers above, however, the cost of my 20 year old car would be slightly higher than $17,500. The $12,500 figure is not accurate since I get 50mpg+ but $2 dollars per gallon is low relative to average costs in California so we'll go with that. Timing belts add another $1500 and oil changes @30 dollars x 25 is an additional $750. I hardly think timing belts and oil changes are worth mentioning as I've pointed out here and other threads. For a group of gear heads the time and/or expense is among the weakest reasons to justify the expense of an EV. Case in point, the EVSE wipes out any savings by itself.

In any case, all of that brings us up to a grand total of less than $20K. My eGolf was $30K. Even with the federal incentive I still paid more and that's without calculating the cost of electricity (.12/kwh flat, we don't have tiers where I live and I believe my solar is calculated at .10/kwh).

Incidentally, I think a far more accurate number to estimate my "savings" is to compare my eGolf to a non-eGolf. I've driven a grand total of 12K miles in my eGolf since the lease began. Compare that at my utility rates and you'll find I "saved" about $500 dollars in fuel costs over the life of my eGolf but after the expense of paying about $10K more than a comparable fuel Golf.

 

[turbobrick240]

I'm surprised Austin doesn't already have a supercharger station. I see quite a few Tesla's when I'm down there. There are lots of other EV chargers though, so maybe it wasn't made a top priority. For instance, all of the HEB grocery stores in Austin (at least the ones I've been to) seem to have EV chargers in the parking lots.

 

[bizzle]

I'm surprised Austin doesn't already have a supercharger station. I see quite a few Tesla's when I'm down there. There are lots of other EV chargers though, so maybe it wasn't made a top priority. For instance, all of the HEB grocery stores in Austin (at least the ones I've been to) seem to have EV chargers in the parking lots.

If it's not there already it's on the 2017 map.

Keep in mind, though, that superchargers aren't intended to serve local travel so they're supposed to be spaced out and not necessarily in the middle of a major metro like you'd otherwise expect based on a slower charging network infrastructure.

 

[VeeDubTDI]

If it's not there already it's on the 2017 map.
Keep in mind, though, that superchargers aren't intended to serve local travel so they're supposed to be spaced out and not necessarily in the middle of a major metro like you'd otherwise expect based on a slower charging network infrastructure.

As I just posted, that philosophy is changing and Tesla is planning to rapidly expand into urban areas so that they can serve people who don't have the capacity to charge their cars at home.

 

[bizzle]

As I just posted, that philosophy is changing and Tesla is planning to rapidly expand into urban areas so that they can serve people who don't have the capacity to charge their cars at home.

I don't agree that their philosophy is changing. It's not that Tesla has changed its opinions about how to use the traditional supercharger network, but rather that they are building out a different network. My response was to someone pointing out he was surprised there wasn't a traditional supercharger in Austin and wasn't a general commentary on how Tesla thinks about charging in general now or something that would be relevant to long-term goals of theirs.

 

[VeeDubTDI]

I don't agree that their philosophy is changing. It's not that Tesla has changed its opinions about how to use the traditional supercharger network, but rather that they are building out a different network. My response was to someone pointing out he was surprised there wasn't a traditional supercharger in Austin and wasn't a general commentary on how Tesla thinks about charging in general now or something that would be relevant to long-term goals of theirs.

It's the same network, with slightly different hardware.

 

[bizzle]

I understand what it is and that doesn't have any bearing on what we're talking about regardless.

The point is that a new rollout is for the upcoming Model3s and doesn't really have anything to do with their traditional supercharger network and, more to the point, the reason there is no traditional supercharger in Austin is because those traditional superchargers are not intended for short commute patterns.

I'm not sure why you are banging on this drum since Tesla introducing a lower charging capacity network is a non-sequitur to my answer to him.

 

[VeeDubTDI]

I understand what it is and that doesn't have any bearing on what we're talking about regardless.

The point is that a new rollout is for the upcoming Model3s and doesn't really have anything to do with their traditional supercharger network and, more to the point, the reason there is no traditional supercharger in Austin is because those traditional superchargers are not intended for short commute patterns.

I'm not sure why you are banging on this drum since Tesla introducing a lower charging capacity network is a non-sequitur to my answer to him.

OK bizzle, I'm sorry I upset you. You're right that there was no Supercharger in downtown Austin because the network was originally designed to enable highway travel. I never disputed that, but I'll swap my drum out for a fiddle. As I said, that is changing and urban areas will be getting Superchargers in the next year.

 

[bizzle]

I was never upset, just confused why my answer to the guy was turning into an argument and the point was getting lost in the weeds.

 

[VeeDubTDI]

I was never upset, just confused why my answer to the guy was turning into an argument.

Not an argument - an observation about what's to come. My apologies for quoting your post.

 

[bizzle]

I think the issue is that since Musk has opted to call these new chargers part of the "Supercharging" network he's muddying the waters and implying, as you put it, a change in philosophy that doesn't actually exist. He should have called the lower cap chargers the "Charging" network or whatever because as is drivers are likely to revert back to the behavior Musk has been actively trying to discourage where Tesla owners are using the high capacity superchargers for daily, short term commutes.

The comments at the bottom of the page you linked about the new network already hint at some of the issues where drivers are asking how they're going to be able to differentiate between these and "normal" superchargers since presumably these are going to be accompanied by steep parking costs.

 

[nwdiver]

You're both correct in a way... Superchargers are not intended to be used for local charging AND Tesla is starting to provide SCs intended specifically for local use.

Not sure how this one will play out... IMO L3 charging isn't sustainable at scale. A L3 charger costs >20x more than L2. Using a Supercharger for daily charging is a band-aid not a solution. I'm afraid Tesla might make things worse by enabling people. I know I'd be A LOT more motivated to push for L2 charging where I work, shop or live if I was having trouble keeping my car charged.

I think the issue is that since Musk has opted to call these new chargers part of the "Supercharging" network he's muddying the waters and implying, as you put it, a change in philosophy that doesn't actually exist.

The philosophy has changed in response to driver behavior. Superchargers were supposed to be 'free forever'. Elon stated that several times... sadly irrational behavior has forced Tesla to re-examine this policy. If someone buying a ~$100k car was willing to sit on a Supercharger to save ~$10/hr the problem would be FAR worse with a $35k car. The 'mini-Supercharger' is a compromise between Destination chargers and Superchargers. Tesla would still prefer that people charge at home but they recognized that they needed a temporary solution for people that still don't have that option... hopefully it will be 'Temporary' :/

 

[VeeDubTDI]

More workplace L2 charging would be amazing, especially if paired with solar power canopies to reduce peak demand.

 

[CraziFuzzy]

More workplace L2 charging would be amazing, especially if paired with solar power canopies to reduce peak demand.

Talk to your employers... commercial rates are quite often less than residential rates in most areas, so you'd be saving money charging at work even if you had to pay their costs. Plus they gain the 'look how green we are' credits for having charging at their place.

We've got 25 40A chargers at my work. The company had zero problems putting them in, even without the demand for them there right now.

 

[VeeDubTDI]

Talk to your employers... commercial rates are quite often less than residential rates in most areas, so you'd be saving money charging at work even if you had to pay their costs. Plus they gain the 'look how green we are' credits for having charging at their place.

We've got 25 40A chargers at my work. The company had zero problems putting them in, even without the demand for them there right now.

I work at a community college and our campus is planning on installing 4 charging stations in the lower level of the parking garage. Coming soon, I hope.

There are also a lot more EVs showing up on campus. This semester I've seen two Nissan LEAFs and last year I saw a Mitsubishi i-MiEV and a Smart ED. Event attendees routinely show up in Teslas, so demand is definitely growing.

 

[nwdiver]

I work at a community college and our campus is planning on installing 4 charging stations in the lower level of the parking garage. Coming soon, I hope.

Hopefully it's not 'Blink'. They have those here and charge $0.50/kWh

 

[VeeDubTDI]

Hopefully it's not 'Blink'. They have those here and charge $0.50/kWh

They were initially looking at SemaConnect, but they may have opted to go a different route. When we were talking about pricing, they were tossing around numbers like $1-2/hour. $1 would be fine, but $2 is pushing it.

Blink is both expensive and unreliable, in my experience.

 

[nwdiver]

This Facebook post is why we can't have free charging...

'Tesla will be putting in 10 Super Chargers a few miles from my house! This is making the Model S more appealing to me again with its free super charging. So funny that this article came out the same day I had my NEMA 14-50 outlet installed in my garage for my Model 3.'

 

[VeeDubTDI]

This Facebook post is why we can't have free charging...

'Tesla will be putting in 10 Super Chargers a few miles from my house! This is making the Model S more appealing to me again with its free super charging. So funny that this article came out the same day I had my NEMA 14-50 outlet installed in my garage for my Model 3.'

I don't expect free Supercharging to continue into 2018 (except for the vehicles/owners who are grandfathered in). And really, the owners of those vehicle bought into the program already by paying higher prices for their vehicles than what buyers today are paying... so have at it.

 

[bhtooefr]

I'm afraid Tesla might make things worse by enabling people. I know I'd be A LOT more motivated to push for L2 charging where I work, shop or live if I was having trouble keeping my car charged.

The problem is, I think you've got the order of events wrong. Having the charging options is the prerequisite for buying the car, not something that you investigate after buying it.

Also, one problem with workplace charging is that it's not commonplace enough to rely on - an EV driver that's dependent on workplace charging as their only charging is now tying themselves to that employer, restricting their options.

So, basically, if you're having trouble finding places to charge your car on L2 where you work or live (charging on L2 only when you shop will likely be too slow for a lot of drivers), you're not going to push for more L2, you're going to keep driving your fossil instead.

That's not to say that deploying workplace L2 is a bad thing - it's definitely a good thing. However, opportunity L3 at shopping/dining areas helps a lot for owners that can't rely on workplace or home L2, for something closer to a gas station model of usage.

 

[VeeDubTDI]

That's a good point, tooef. There are a lot of people who can't take advantage of workplace L2 charging. Some of those folks might park on the street, take public transportation, or have parking lots that don't have electrical infrastructure readily available for EV charging. In those cases, having more L3 options becomes more important.

 

[El Dobro]

I'd be happy with L1 charging at work, but alas no one at work other than me, is even remotely interested in plugging in.

 

[nwdiver]

The problem is, I think you've got the order of events wrong. Having the charging options is the prerequisite for buying the car, not something that you investigate after buying it.

For most people that's true... but there's a certain percentage of condo/apartment dwellers that REALLY want a Tesla OR people that are confused as to the true intent of Superchargers.

My fear is that L3 top ups will gradually become the norm for city dwellers and they won't put enough effort into expanding L2 charging. Long term that's going to be a much bigger headache than not being able to buy an EV today.

In addition to being significantly more expensive than L2 charging L3 is FAR more likely to use more expensive and dirtier daytime power... I doubt many people will venture out at 2am to top up their car when electricity is cheaper and cleaner...

It needs to be made abundantly clear that this IS NOT a solution.

I don't expect free Supercharging to continue into 2018 (except for the vehicles/owners who are grandfathered in). And really, the owners of those vehicle bought into the program already by paying higher prices for their vehicles than what buyers today are paying... so have at it.

If you watch some of Elons presentations from a couple years ago it's clear that the intent was to keep Supercharging free. The cost of electricity is a rounding error compared to the cost of the infrastructure. The problem was that locals were clogging the stations and people traveling had to wait... Elon and JB were surprised by the number of people willing to waste their time to save a few dollars on their electric bill.

 

[rotarykid]

I saw a Tesla SUV today something 90, I don't remember, there was a name on the left and there was a letter, a 90, another letter
with a dealer plate.....

The first of those I've seen.

Also saw a Tesla sedan up on Trail Ridge road last week. In Rocky Mountain park national park @12,000+ ft.

 

[GoFaster]

Probably Model X P90D.

Human nature needs to be taken into account with respect to charging stations. If people can get something for free (to them), they will take it. If that means Level 3 charging stations need to cost something to use them, to encourage people to only use them when they have to ... so be it. If it means building codes have to be amended to force parking garages in apartment buildings to provide Level 2 charging and to force new housing to be built with 240VAC outlets in the garage ... so be it.

 

[SilverGhost]

Benefit of working at one of the two brands to sell EVs - GM and VW. Couple of my last dealers had chargers install. Current boss even said I could charge here if I want. That would work just fine as my commute is about 22 miles round trip and an eGolf can do 85 miles pretty well.

Now just to find a car I can afford.

BTW - I know the cost of operation gas vs diesel vs EV. But I still have to come up with purchase price, and at this point wife is 8+months pregnant. Money has been spent on plenty of other things/

Jason

 

[nwdiver]

BTW - I know the cost of operation gas vs diesel vs EV. But I still have to come up with purchase price, and at this point wife is 8+months pregnant. Money has been spent on plenty of other things/

Have you tried the used market? Probably gonna be A LOT of LEAF owners upgrading next year

 

[turbocharged798]

What's your power company?

Central Hudson.

That's what off-peak and EV plans are for...

Off-Peak electricity in NY is ~$0.04/kWh... that's <$0.02/mile....

See below.

Yeah, but short of two meters, off peak plans frequently are a 'lose' for everything else . . . For me, I office from home in Texas, so AC is the biggest expense by far, so an off peak plan would penalize, not help . . .

^^This. Its great for electric water heating, EVs and lighting at night but a total loose for everything else. Our electric company also increases the base charge. Total loose-loose situation.

How do you figure?

I did a quick check...diesel in upstate New York is ~$2.46 per gallon (at Costco). All-in, my power company's kWh's cost me about 5 cents each. I drove 63km (39 miles) with my EV today for about $0.48.

How much are you paying per kWh?

Just paid $95.37 for 546KW/hr or 18 cents a KW. You are paying nearly a third of what we are paying.

If you run the numbers, diesel at 2.49 a gal and 50mpg nets me around 5 cents a mile. EV at 34KW/100miles and 18 cents a KW/hr comes out to about 6 cents a mile. That's assuming you don't need heat where there is this little thing in NY called winter....

 

[turbobrick240]

50 mpg seems a bit optimistic for an overall average efficiency. I'm happy with 38-40 mpg in the winter, and my car is modded for fuel efficiency. Plus it's much easier for me to make my own electricity vs. diesel fuel.