Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

[Mark SF]

+1

And while the comparisons of pollutants, like NOx and CO2 are made, realize that the higher CO2 from marginally more fuel consumption doesn't materially change what is a high CO2 per mile figure. It is still going to be about half a pound per mile. The growing electric competition pushes closer to .3 lbs per mile (@3mp_kwh, on a 1,000lb/MWh US electric mix).

The point vs. electrics would be that you always need a second car for longer trips. In my case, I could have an electric car for commuting, and another car for the weekends - or I can have one car, the TDI. Considering all the energy that goes into making a car, I'm pretty sure that having one efficient vehicle comes out ahead.

 

[bhtooefr]

Well, there are plug-in hybrids as well. And, sure, a better one (let's use the 2016 Volt) will probably do a little worse on regular unleaded (assuming a depleted battery) on the highway than a diesel, but a diesel also puts out about 14% more CO2 per gallon, and I doubt the 2016 Volt will do 14% worse fuel economy than a post-recall CBEA/CJAA. (At 42 mpg highway for the Volt, the TDI would need to get nearly 48 mpg. Sure, the Volt's a hybrid, and it might not get 42 mpg highway in reality, but I'd also not expect a post-recall CBEA or CJAA to get 48, I'd expect closer to the EPA ratings of 40-43.)

Then, there's city mileage that should be much better for something like the Volt, and then there's 53 miles of electric range at electric (low) CO2 emissions.

 

[Mark SF]

That's why I bought a Volt.

I thought about the Volt, but the high sticker price put me off, and the fact that it's based on the GM Astra - hardly a car with a reputation for being inspiring to drive. I think the VW TDIs sell partly because of their driving dynamics.

I read that the battery on electric cars typically adds a premium of about 50 g/km of CO2, as they are so energy-intensive to manufacture.

 

[bhtooefr]

That premium would be amortized over the life of the battery, though, so really we need what the actual CO2 cost of the battery is, not a "g/km" figure.

 

[Mark SF]

That 50 g/km was the figure when the energy taken to make the battery was amortized over the battery life. Or are we saying the same thing?

 

[bhtooefr]

We're saying the same thing, but what's the battery life estimate, and what's real-world battery life?

 

[Mark SF]

Good question.

I'm pretty convinced that the TDI made sense, for my mix of driving conditions, as I bought it. Whether it continues to make sense after VW have finished with it, is another matter. The fact that it was fun to drive was a major factor. I find it hard to imagine joining the hybrid set, given how most of them drive. It's like they've never done it before. The fact that I didn't need to putz along at 55 mph to get good fuel economy, or drive around on a 120 degree day with the windows open because my battery range is so marginal (saw this the other week, a $120K Tesla in 105 degree heat and he's driving with all the windows open), were major factors for me. TDI is the efficient car for people who can drive.

 

[SageBrush]

I read that the battery on electric cars typically adds a premium of about 50 g/km of CO2, as they are so energy-intensive to manufacture.

Amazing what one can read on the internet.

 

[Mark SF]

Are you saying that large batteries are not energy intensive to produce?

Here's a report, the picture is quite complex as it depends on the electricity generation mix used to make the car, and to power it :

http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/electric-car-emissions

One point : a Volt is the worst case really for manufacturing emissions, as its a gasoline car with a large battery.

 

[SageBrush]

Are you saying that large batteries are not energy intensive to produce?

I am saying that 50 gram CO2e/mile emissions due to the battery in EV use is FUD.
Lots of source data is available for free reading. E.g.,
http://www.environment.ucla.edu/media/files/BatteryElectricVehicleLCA2012-rh-ptd.pdf

Based on our findings in Ishihara et al., Nemry et al., and Staudinger and Keoleian, we determined that battery recycling required 31 MJ/kg, which, with a 300 kg battery per vehicle and operating under the assumption of 1 battery with partial replacement per vehicle life, equates to 13950 MJ of energy required to recycle the battery. We calculated, based on an emission intensity of energy of 1.51 kg CO2 per kg of battery, that this would lead to emissions totaling 680.76 kg CO2.

For context, a diesel emits around 10 Kg CO2 per gallon.

OR


Argonne National

For a unitary example then, a grid that produces 1 pound of CO2 per kWh generated (3412 btu) would thus lead to (65/3412 = 0.01905041) pounds per mile from battery related lifecycle costs. This works out to 8.64 grams per mile of CO2.

 

[Mark SF]

What has a table showing the energy required to re-cycle a battery, got to do with the energy required to make a battery? You do understand the difference between making and re-cycling, don't you?

Here is the nearest thing I can find to an unbiased report :

http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Shades-of-Green-Full-Report.pdf

They are assuming that an electric car costs 70 g/km to make, and a gasoline one costs 40. The conclusion is that an electric car, over its lifetime, emits the same carbon as a gasoline car that does 43 mpg, based on US electricity mix. That would be the same as a diesel car doing about 50 mpg, I think.

 

[Mark SF]

I am saying that 50 gram CO2e/mile emissions due to battery manufacture is FUD.
Lots of source data is available for free reading. E.g.,
http://www.environment.ucla.edu/media/files/BatteryElectricVehicleLCA2012-rh-ptd.pdf

In figure 7 of the report that YOU reference, it shows a figure of 0.039 to 0.048 kg/mile of CO2, due to battery manufacturing, for the electric vehicle. This is 39 to 48g per mile, very close to the 50 that I quoted.

It's very kind of you to back up my point with solid data.

To put it another way, the CO2 per mile for the total energy for manufacturing the gasoline car is about 13 g/mile. The C02 per mile for manufacturing the electric car is about 55 g/mile.

My point is not that electric cars aren't more efficient, but that they are not as efficient as they seem, purely based on re-charging costs.

 

[bhtooefr]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/...tric-Vehicle-Myths-1-About-that-CO2-Footprint has some discussion of various CO2 footprint questions regarding EVs, for what it's worth. GREET is leaning towards 5.1 kg CO2 per battery kg, and the Volt's battery is 183 kg, for 933.3 kg embodied CO2 in the battery.

That's 104.8 gallons of gas, or 91.95 gallons of diesel, which means that a TDI has a very, very low head start indeed. Let's say the TDI gets 50 mpg (which, after this, it won't, and in the city it never did), that's only a 4598 mi head start.

 

[SageBrush]

What has a table showing the energy required to re-cycle a battery, got to do with the energy required to make a battery?

Everything, if you want to consider a lifecycle analysis.
Assuming every battery sources from raw materials is a flawed analysis, but the results are not *that* different and certainly no where near 50 grams CO2 per mile.

I thought you would complain that the second reference analyzed a PHEV20. I picked it out of personal preference for that auto config, because the study was so well done and written up, and because the only significant manufacturer of huge battery EVs is opening a factory in NV that will be carbon free.

 

[bhtooefr]

Carbon footprint of EVs

This thread was started to continue a discussion from the thread on Volkswagen Clean Air Act violations, and all posts before this point (and a couple from after this point) were merged in from that thread.

I don't want to risk breaking the thread (this is the original OP, and I THINK I can safely delete it, but I don't want to risk it), so I'm leaving this post in.

 

[Mark SF]

Everything, if you want to consider a lifecycle analysis.
Assuming every battery sources from raw materials is a flawed analysis, but the results are not *that* different and certainly no where near 50 grams CO2 per mile.

Table 7. I guess the question is whether 48 is nowhere near to 50.

 

[Mark SF]

Everything, if you want to consider a lifecycle analysis.
Assuming every battery sources from raw materials is a flawed analysis, but the results are not *that* different and certainly no where near 50 grams CO2 per mile.

I thought you would complain that the second reference analyzed a PHEV20. I picked it out of personal preference and because the only significant manufacturer of huge battery EVs is opening a factory in NV that will be carbon free.

Carbon free, eh? So the lithium will magically mine itself and transport itself from the mine to the factory?

 

[VeeDubTDI]

Thank you for posting some solid numbers!

 

[bhtooefr]

It's also worth noting that those CO2 numbers for fuels (which come from the EIA) are merely the CO2 produced by burning the fuel, not counting the CO2 embodied in the production of the fuel.

 

[n1acguy]

That's why I bought a Volt.

Same here. Volt is the local car (ours never needs to run on gas), and the TDI Passat is our distance car.

 

[SageBrush]

Carbon free, eh? So the lithium will magically mine itself and transport itself from the mine to the factory?

Rounded down to carbon free. Look up the relative contribution of mining and then take into account recycling.

Thanks for bringing figure 7 of the UCLA study to my attention. I agree that the range for the battery life cycle contribution is shown as low 40s grams CO2/mile. It does presume a 300 Kg battery manufactured in China, and I am not sure if recycling is considered (although I doubt it.) I'll have to read the study closer and see if those details are clarified.

Sorry for the off-topic posts. I'm happy to continue the discussion in the new thread.

 

[Mark SF]

Rounded down to carbon free. Look up the relative contribution of mining and then take into account recycling.

Thanks for bringing figure 7 of the UCLA study to my attention. I agree that the range for the battery life cycle contribution is shown as low 40s grams CO2/mile. It does presume a 300 Kg battery manufactured in China, and I am not sure if recycling is considered (although I doubt it.) I'll have to read the study closer and see if those details are clarified.

Sorry for the off-topic posts. I'm happy to continue the discussion in the new thread.

Really my original point was intended to be that having a TDI for all driving, rather than having an electric car for the commute AND a TDI for the weekends, has to be more environmentally friendly considering the energy that takes to make my "extra" electric car.

 

[SageBrush]

OK, I reread the UCLA study of BEV lifetime energy consumption with a focus on the battery and a statement by Mike SF in the VW cheater thread that battery manufacture costs 50 grams CO2 per mile over the expected life of the car.

Figure 7 is a range that allows for different battery lives. The median is 120k miles which I accept, so that study finds 43 grams per mile. Fair enough, and not that far from Mike's statement, but it should be remembered that the study presumes that the battery is manufactured in China and then shipped to the US. The Chinese grid is modeled as ~ 80% coal. Use of US grid numbers is I think reasonable today since both Nissan for the LEAF and GM for the Volt; and Tesla in a couple of years, will all manufacture in the states. The US grid varies widely, so just as an example of using the current US grid average of ~ 40% coal, the battery contribution will be in the neighborhood of 1/2, or 22 grams CO2 per mile for a 300 Kg battery.

The current LEAF battery weighs 218 Kg, placing the per mile CO2 from the battery manufacture at (218/300)*22 = 16 grams.
The next Gen LEAF is reportedly around 300 Kg based on the jump in anticipated range.

A domestic PHEV20 would then be in the vicinity of 4.5 grams CO2 per EV mile, a PHEV40 9 grams, etc

 

[El Dobro]

This thread is to continue a discussion from the thread on Volkswagen Clean Air Act violations.
My last post in that discussion:

Very interesting DailyKos article.

 

[SageBrush]

Very interesting DailyKos article.

Hi !

Pretty good article, except for the bit about night time charging. My understanding is that utilities do not want to shut down the plant completely, but they can and do run it at much less than peak capacity with very little or no loss of efficiency. So the notion of running EVs on otherwise wasted electricity is I believe wrong. Certainly there is no such accounting going on in GREET.

A widespread occurrence in Colorado is to have windmills shut down at night because the utilities refuse to buy the power, preferring the coal plant instead. But that is a matter of utility profit. If EVs ramped up night charging at night, the utilities would ramp up the coal plants.

 

[bhtooefr]

It's nuke plants that are really hard to throttle (and there's no inherent CO2 emissions from nuclear fuel (maybe embodied, though), but it is nonrenewable), but as I understand coal is difficult to throttle as well? Calling BKmetz...

 

[chimaera]

Is it fair to consider the battery in an EV comparable to the fuel in a conventional vehicle?

Considering it's a core part of the vehicle with a (relatively) long lifespan, it's probably more appropriate to consider it part of the vehicle's total footprint.

So put 2 brand new vehicles side by side, one EV, one conventional: they're probably going to have similar footprint. That still leaves the EV ahead on the road though.

The big question mark over EVs is whether the power generation grid can cope with replacing a substantial portion of ICEV use with EV use?

(I'm still working through the Daily Kos article so my questions might be answered in there yet)

 

[El Dobro]

The big question mark over EVs is whether the power generation grid can cope with replacing a substantial portion of ICEV use with EV use?
(I'm still working through the Daily Kos article so my questions might be answered in there yet)

This.
http://insideevs.com/dont-worry-us-grid-capable-of-supporting-up-to-150-million-electric-vehicles/

 

[BKmetz]

It's nuke plants that are really hard to throttle (and there's no inherent CO2 emissions from nuclear fuel (maybe embodied, though), but it is nonrenewable), but as I understand coal is difficult to throttle as well? Calling BKmetz...

Toof has called on me because I have 37 years in the fossil fuel power plant industry.

The language in that Dailykos article concerning coal plants taking days to change the burn rate of coal is just facking stupid. The author pulled that one out of his arse. Hours yes, but not days. The rate of change (ROC) depends on too many variables to list but is mostly dependent on the plant design and what generation of controls technology the plant is using.

The other big facking piece of misinformation is that powerplants waste power at night. ALL powerplants (nuke & fossil) drop load at night when the grid load drops. They always have. Fast cycle coal plants will come off line in the evening and cycle back on in time for the morning load pick up. Large coal plants & nukes will ramp down to their minimum load. Gaps in the grid load are picked up on the spot market by most of the gas turbine plants, which usually do not run as base loaded units, but they can if needed.

The off-peak price part of the article is the only thing that is somewhat factual. Every powerplant has start-up and shut-down costs. Costs can run as high as into the tens of thousands in a start up or shutdown. Utilities do want to keep the plants on and at as high a load as possible to maintain maximum efficiency. The problem is that the author only cites 2 markets. Most utilities don't offer an off-peak rate.

Overall I'd rate that article a D for accuracy, for the powerplant information anyway.

 

[Powder Hound]

My son, who lives in Arizona, has an off-peak rate with his power. In the summer in Phoenix, the peak and off-peak periods are due to the large a/c load that everyone has due to the sun coming up.

Here in NH, there is no peak/off peak price difference.

I didn't read the article, but I am sure one of the big problems with price differentials is the cost of capital. That cost is fixed overhead. The cost incurred when they built the plant doesn't change no matter how much power is or is not being generated. And, it must be paid, also without consideration of the amount of power being generated and sold.