Men or mice: will VW grow a pair & have diesel in '19 lineup ?

[texnkeroburner]

I went by Dodge just to show my wife the eco diesel 1500, nope gone just one year of production and they gave up on it. I didn't even know they had cancelled it already.

 

[Tin Man]

Hmm....
www.fuelly.com results:
2014 BMW 320i: 27.4 mpg with premium gasoline
2014 BMW 328i: 39.2 mpg with ULSD
difference: 11.8 mpg
www.fueleconomy.gov results:
2014 BMW 320i: 28 mpg
2014 BMW 328d: 36 mpg
difference: 8 mpg

This is only one indication of how deceptive EPA figures are to naive consumers, thinking gassers are "almost" as good as diesel. There is nothing of the sort, even with choked off motors with uber-pollution controls.

TM

 

[Matt-98AHU]

I went by Dodge just to show my wife the eco diesel 1500, nope gone just one year of production and they gave up on it. I didn't even know they had cancelled it already.

That's because they're having their own mini dieselgate scandal concerning the 3.0L V6 diesels like the one that was found in the Ram 1500...

The witch hunt has expanded far beyond VW, but I suspect none of the penalties will be anywhere near as severe as what VW had to endure.

 

[flargabarg]

EVs need more infrastructure, more range and faster charging/battery replacement times to really target the diesel crowd.

Sent from my XT1097 using Tapatalk

Maybe. Some of the diesel crowd is the '80 mile daily commute' crowd, and for those folks a Bolt and the wall outlet they already have in their garage might just do it. If they have charging at work it will make even more sense as the electricity is sometimes a perk of employment. EVs can replace a lot of vehicles out there as the costs fall in to line, and that's dominated by the battery which is getting cheaper by the day.

 

[VWMark]

Unfortunately, the EVs have a long way to go to replace IC engines for mainstream customers, and especially diesel customers. The range of most of the reasonably priced EVs is only a bit over 100 miles, which gives most people severe range anxiety. Even if that works for most peoples commute, what happens when you need to go further? You need another car, or you have the hassle of renting something. Financially, it doesn't make sense. Also, once the range gets to the 200 mile mark you need a dedicated charger installed at your house for another $1000+, and most people don't have access to chargers at work.

I still think electric vehicles are the future, but it's going to take a while. Seems every week there is some news article about a huge battery breakthrough that will double battery range and drop the price by half, but it never happens. And yes, I do have firsthand experience. I leased a Nissan Leaf for 3 years, and was happy to give it back last year. Looking at the current Leaf, it's pretty much the same car, with a a few extra miles of range, no thank you. When you can get a reasonably priced EV that has 300 mile range, I'll take a look again. And how about an onboard charger so I can just have an electrician install a 240v outlet instead of spending even more money on a proprietary charger?

 

[kjclow]

In the compact car segment, the diesel was starting to not make sense at its price point and the fact that its efficiency wasn't as far above immediate competitors like hybrids and some of the modern turbo DI gas engines like they used to be.

But if VW wants to hit a niche that could help their sales significantly in the U.S.,

If VW really wanted to reign supreme, in addition to the diesel SUVs, they needed to bring over the smaller diesels to be the hybrid killers. I've always contended that the Polo would make an ideal entry level car. Similar in size to the Prius C and a lot better mileage. On the European cycle, the Polo diesel is rated at 3.8 100 l/100 km or about 62 mpg. The Prius C is rated at 48 city and 43 highway.

However, as someone else pointed out, as long as fuel prices remain around $2, there is little incentive to buy an economy car.

 

[kjclow]

I went by Dodge just to show my wife the eco diesel 1500, nope gone just one year of production and they gave up on it. I didn't even know they had cancelled it already.

Fiat-Chrysler pulled all the light duty diesels off the sales lots until they are done with their turn in the fiery pits of EPA/CARB. Hard to determine at this point is they will come out lightly toasted or charred beyond all recognition.

 

[CraziFuzzy]

The use cases where diesel ends up being the best option continue to dwindle with every model year. Considering the extensive emissions systems required, it just makes less and less sense to spend the R&D money on it.

There will be a time when nearly all new passenger cars sold will be either BEV, or Series Hybrids. The pure mechanical efficiencies are just too great for other tech to truly compete, and they are actually simpler powertrains to design.

 

[r11]

Mining of REMs is bad. They are raping the planet, plain & simple. Disposal of those batts will be equally bad, we are not yet facing that issue due to EVs being rather new & few and far between.

Generation is about 19% renewables in US, between solar, wind and HEPP. Nuclear is almost gone. Rest is steam, probably more polluting, per mile driven, than our TDIs.

 

[turbobrick240]

Mining of REMs is bad. They are raping the planet, plain & simple. Disposal of those batts will be equally bad, we are not yet facing that issue due to EVs being rather new & few and far between.

Generation is about 19% renewables in US, between solar, wind and HEPP. Nuclear is almost gone. Rest is steam, probably more polluting, per mile driven, than our TDIs.

Ever heard of the BP oil spill? Petroleum extraction isn't all butterflies and unicorns either. I think in most regions of the US and Canada ev' s are less polluting than ice. Coal power is largely being displaced by natural gas. There is already an affordable ev with 300 mile range in europe- the opel ampere. I see it like steam locomotives vs. diesel electric locomotives. As cool as steam loco' s are, they were inevitably going to be displaced by the more efficient diesel electrics.

 

[oilhammer]

Ever heard of the BP oil spill? Petroleum extraction isn't all butterflies and unicorns either. I think in most regions of the US and Canada ev' s are less polluting than ice. Coal power is largely being displaced by natural gas. There is already an affordable ev with 300 mile range in europe- the opel ampere. I see it like steam locomotives vs. diesel electric locomotives. As cool as steam loco' s are, they were inevitably going to be displaced by the more efficient diesel electrics.

And in some parts of the world, the steam engines are STILL in operation. Why? Because they are tougher, stronger, and can be kept going almost indefinitely, and so long as you have a water source and something that will burn, they can move their cargo. There are still steam powered locomotives in operation in Africa that were left there when the European settlers vacated nearly a century ago.

The diesel electrics displaced steam in most modern areas because they were easier able to carry their fuel and needed no constant water filling, so once they got up to speed they could go further. Which meant much longer trains, and the end of the small towns spaced out along the rail lines (most of which have since dried up).

Shame, because trucking has now displaced most rail traffic in this country, and that is not a good thing. But the hippies love it because of the aggressive rails to trails program of turning old railroad beds into bike trails. The whole time more and more semi trucks are clogging up the highways.

 

[kjclow]

Hey, I'm one of those hippies! Some of those rail trails are a blast.

 

[RNDDUDE]

Well, I have a 2011 JSW TDI that I bought when my daily commute was 150 miles. I am keeping that car because it has been well maintained and is a great car. Diesel in Los Angeles has been cheaper than RUG for over 2 years. A change in jobs reduced my commute to 66 miles/day, so I bought a BEV (Fiat 500e), primarily to gain access to the carpool lane (I drive the 405 freeway, the busiest in the nation), and to avoid the price of fuel, which in Los Angeles is among the highest in the country. I also have free charging at work, so my cost of electricity is almost zero.

My point is this...each of these cars has an area of brilliance that I need...when I need to haul stuff or travel cross country, I use the JSW. For work commuting and errand running, I use the electric. I only go to the gas station about once a month to fill up the JSW. OH, and I have a BMW 335i convertible for fun....

 

[turbobrick240]

And in some parts of the world, the steam engines are STILL in operation. Why? Because they are tougher, stronger, and can be kept going almost indefinitely, and so long as you have a water source and something that will burn, they can move their cargo. There are still steam powered locomotives in operation in Africa that were left there when the European settlers vacated nearly a century ago.

The diesel electrics displaced steam in most modern areas because they were easier able to carry their fuel and needed no constant water filling, so once they got up to speed they could go further. Which meant much longer trains, and the end of the small towns spaced out along the rail lines (most of which have since dried up).

Shame, because trucking has now displaced most rail traffic in this country, and that is not a good thing. But the hippies love it because of the aggressive rails to trails program of turning old railroad beds into bike trails. The whole time more and more semi trucks are clogging up the highways.

There are still steam loco' s operating in N. America too. And India, and probably a bunch of places. Which is awesome because they are super cool. But for the most part they have been entirely displaced by the diesel electric. The much better thermal efficiency of diesel electric along with lower maintenance costs/down time made that inevitable. I'm sure third world nations will also be some of the last adopters of ev technology.

 

[CraziFuzzy]

Mining of REMs is bad. They are raping the planet, plain & simple. Disposal of those batts will be equally bad, we are not yet facing that issue due to EVs being rather new & few and far between.

What rare earth metals are used in the current crop of BEV's and Hybrids? What components are they in?

Generation is about 19% renewables in US, between solar, wind and HEPP. Nuclear is almost gone. Rest is steam, probably more polluting, per mile driven, than our TDIs.

A power plant is WAY less polluting per unit of usable energy than any ICE vehicle of the same vintage, simply because the controls are more advanced, precise and effective being done on a large scale power plant that runs close to steady state than a mobile small vehicle that covers a large range of operation.

 

[Milehog]

Where do you get you information?

What rare earth metals are used in the current crop of BEV's and Hybrids? What components are they in?
A power plant is WAY less polluting per unit of usable energy than any ICE vehicle of the same vintage, simply because the controls are more advanced, precise and effective being done on a large scale power plant that runs close to steady state than a mobile small vehicle that covers a large range of operation.

I think you need to check on the rare earth metal in batteries. Parts of Canada are a waste land mining the stuff. Also check out where the battery materials are processed and the batteries are made. Not in our back yard!
Power plants are efficient for the reasons you state, however, your not factoring in line loss. Check for yourself the transmission losses are significant. Now add a poorly supplied and maintained vehicle charging stations and you have a complete mess. Instead of thousands of fuel service stations you now have hundreds of thousands of charging stations. Who maintains these and at what cost. EV is a disaster unfolding.

 

[CraziFuzzy]

NiMH batteries DO use rare earth metals, and early hybrids used NiMH batteries. Li-ion batteries, however, do not.

 

[flargabarg]

I think Lanthanum was the metal. See this interesting bit on rare earth minerals, which are not particularly rare: http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/g282/important-rare-earth-elements/

 

[DieselMann99]

Maybe this is a dumb question, but I assume that VW is not mfg any 2018 "factory fixed" TDIs, correct?

 

[CraziFuzzy]

I think Lanthanum was the metal. See this interesting bit on rare earth minerals, which are not particularly rare: http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/g282/important-rare-earth-elements/

Lanthanum is used in NiMH batteries (as I've mentioned above), such as what was used in the first gen Prius. It is not used in Li-Ion batteries as found in phones, laptops, or current Hybrid and EV cars.

the Mountain Pass Mine (At one point the world's primary source of Rare Earth Metals) reopened a number of years back, in part based on the speculation that the demand for REM's would be high as more hybrid and BEV vehicles are developed. However, with the use of AC motors (not requiring Neodymium magnets) and the transition to Li-Ion batteries (not requiring Lanthanum) the demand was simply not there, and the cheaper to operate mines in China continue to control the market. The mine was quickly closed back down.

 

[CraziFuzzy]

Maybe this is a dumb question, but I assume that VW is not mfg any 2018 "factory fixed" TDIs, correct?

No.. They've been pretty clear they are not producing of developing diesels in the planned future.

 

[ZippyNH]

I think you need to check on the rare earth metal in batteries. Parts of Canada are a waste land mining the stuff. Also check out where the battery materials are processed and the batteries are made. Not in our back yard!
Power plants are efficient for the reasons you state, however, your not factoring in line loss. Check for yourself the transmission losses are significant. Now add a poorly supplied and maintained vehicle charging stations and you have a complete mess. Instead of thousands of fuel service stations you now have hundreds of thousands of charging stations. Who maintains these and at what cost. EV is a disaster unfolding.

+1
Then add to that many diesel drivers love the range....
I like being able to have a car with a huge range and minimal stops...
Short of hydrogen fuel cells, electric will never do it with batteries.
Sure....short city trips aren't bad for EV cars, as are trips along major interstates...
But back roads, long road trips, or pulling a camper?
People dream of EV cars, but the power comes from somewhere....and efficiency is list at each step with an event car, transmission, storage, and use, and the pollution is only shifted to a different location.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Take a look around you next time you're in traffic, and observe the percentage of vehicles that are SUVs and pickups. There's really no point in talking about small car sales in the US as no one really wants them: most manufacturers who sell here consider them penalty boxes for people who can't afford what they really want. There's no point in VW or anyone else investing in making a good small car for this market. I predict the Bolt will be a very low volume seller, in part, because no one wants a small car (except for a few of us here).

If I were to hope for another VW diesel, the Atlas would be the best candidate. A 2.0l engine like in the Euro Passat (225 HP IIRC) would work well in that vehicle. I wouldn't be a buyer for it, but it would probably be a nice vehicle.

Ford has officially announced their 3.0l Powerstroke for mid-2018 launch in the facelifted F150. This is where the future of diesels is in NA.

 

[2015vwgolfdiesel]

Take a look around you next time you're in traffic, and observe the percentage of vehicles that are SUVs and pickups. There's really no point in talking about small car sales in the US as no one really wants them: most manufacturers who sell here consider them penalty boxes for people who can't afford what they really want. There's no point in VW or anyone else investing in making a good small car for this market. I predict the Bolt will be a very low volume seller, in part, because no one wants a small car (except for a few of us here).

.... snip.....

Yes, Golf is a niche sized small unit ~~ works for this ol' geezer

On the other hand, wife demanded a RAV4 after her Camry was 13.5 years old. I choose the LIMITED because that made more sense than an LE or XLE with NAV & other tech added on the the lower models

 

[oilhammer]

Take a look around you next time you're in traffic, and observe the percentage of vehicles that are SUVs and pickups. There's really no point in talking about small car sales in the US as no one really wants them: most manufacturers who sell here consider them penalty boxes for people who can't afford what they really want. There's no point in VW or anyone else investing in making a good small car for this market. I predict the Bolt will be a very low volume seller, in part, because no one wants a small car (except for a few of us here).

If I were to hope for another VW diesel, the Atlas would be the best candidate. A 2.0l engine like in the Euro Passat (225 HP IIRC) would work well in that vehicle. I wouldn't be a buyer for it, but it would probably be a nice vehicle.

Ford has officially announced their 3.0l Powerstroke for mid-2018 launch in the facelifted F150. This is where the future of diesels is in NA.

Excellent post, totally agree. We (common sense folk who just like to use as little consumables as necessary) are a minority here. Interesting how out of touch some people are. Some clown, a "professor" , was on NPR this morning spouting off about how "most Americans" will still want to follow the Paris deal that the president backed out of. Well, if "most Americans" want that, then why is the F150 still the best seller here, and why do Fiestas sit and gather dust on the lot right next to them?

 

[2015vwgolfdiesel]

Excellent post, totally agree. We (common sense folk who just like to use as little consumables as necessary) are a minority here. Interesting how out of touch some people are. Some clown, a "professor" , was on NPR this morning spouting off about how "most Americans" will still want to follow the Paris deal that the president backed out of. Well, if "most Americans" want that, then why is the F150 still the best seller here, and why do Fiestas sit and gather dust on the lot right next to them?

Speaking for myself.

Many 'mericans (in general) have belly full of paying more, sacrificing more, (comparatively)

i. e.

Is it true that some countries do nothing, pay nothing, until 2030?

 

[CraziFuzzy]

Excellent post, totally agree. We (common sense folk who just like to use as little consumables as necessary) are a minority here. Interesting how out of touch some people are. Some clown, a "professor" , was on NPR this morning spouting off about how "most Americans" will still want to follow the Paris deal that the president backed out of. Well, if "most Americans" want that, then why is the F150 still the best seller here, and why do Fiestas sit and gather dust on the lot right next to them?

Be careful with the sales stats by model, and misusing them to determine the desires of 'most americans'. The F150 is NOT the best seller in america - the Ford F-series is. This is lumping 5 different truck models into the same stat. If car stats were done the same way, the 'Honda sedan' might very well be the best selling vehicle in america. The F-series also reflects the most popular commercial/fleet vehicle as well, which does not reflect the desires of 'most americans' for their actual personal purchases.

Then there's also the sheer number of different models of cars and vs. the numbers of trucks. Last year, over 900,000 vehicles were sold in the US. Less than 200,000 of them were trucks, with a large number of those being fleet purchases. Passenger cars still make up the largest category of vehicles sold, though crossovers are a close 2nd. Trucks are 3rd, and SUVs 4th.

 

[oilhammer]

Sorry, you are correct. The 15 MPG F150 gets lumped in with the 12 MPG F250s and F350s, my bad.

Not sure how it is in your neck of the woods, but around here (and pretty much all over the place it seems) there are loads of private use (meaning, NON-commercial) half ton, 4WD, crew-cab, short bed, usually V8 powered, pickups all over the roads. One of the largest Chevrolet dealers in the area, Weber Chevrolet, sells more Silverados than every other vehicle they sell combined. And this is NOT a dealer that is in some rural area with farmers all over. It is smack dab in an upper middle class to upper class suburban area, a stone's through from the places the wealthiest people in the area live. They are literally across the street from the Audi, BMW, Rover, Lexus, Infiniti, Jaguar, Porsche, etc. conglomerate dealership.

F-series sales (since you pointed out it is not JUST the F150) for January of this year almost hit 60k units. In one month. Prius sales that same month (and, to be fair, this includes ALL of the various Prius models)? Less than 8k.

Although Prius sales last month peaked just over 10k... so that's good, right? Oh, but the F-series sailed past 76k units last month.

So tell me again that "most Americans" want fuel efficient cars? That is a laughable statement. Sad, too.

Americans just like to make poor choices.

Oh, and the Honda Accord, a generally good seller, is still out paced by the F-series better than 2 to 1. It got 33k sales last month. Honda's cute little Fit? Barely passed 5k units. And their Insight? Yeah, that is pretty much dead.

 

[peterdaniel]

if you ever want to know the right path to take on just about anything, NEVER EVER EVER listen to the "majority" of Americans.

 

[oilhammer]

if you ever want to know the right path to take on just about anything, NEVER EVER EVER listen to the "majority" of Americans.

Hey I have a driveway full of Volkswagens and one Mercedes, clearly I don't listen.