Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

[RabbitGTI]

I have to agree with the SpaceX success, but there was little, if any, competition. Plus, their customer base is limited and not anything like dealing against worldwide competition and selling to John Q Public.
It's going to be an interesting time for Tesla and I wish them success. I think Musk is a brilliant person and very charismatic, but those qualities will just buy him time. The company still has to perform.
Remember, Tesla is taking on the auto industry that has survived for 100 years. I wonder what Tesla would do in a real economic downturn since they probably have no real business plan to deal with massively reduced sales of expensive cars.
I'm a little off topic here, but my interest in Tesla is analyzing the business end of it.

For never having made any money, Musk is a master of raising new money. And no, it's not Amazon.

 

[2015vwgolfdiesel]

bhtooer (sp?)


Thank you kindly

 

[turbobrick240]

For never having made any money, Musk is a master of raising new money. And no, it's not Amazon.

The guy is a multi billionaire. I'd say he is doing just fine at making money. He's also a self taught rocket scientist. I really don't understand the amount of animosity so many seem to feel toward him. Maybe it's just an inferiority complex.

 

[RabbitGTI]

The guy is a multi billionaire. I'd say he is doing just fine at making money. He's also a self taught rocket scientist. I really don't understand the amount of animosity so many seem to feel toward him. Maybe it's just an inferiority complex.

There is no animosity. I am talking about Tesla making money, not Musk. My view is shared by many on Wall Street, they cannot believe his ability to raise new funds. It's either going to work or be the biggest short of all-time. There is no middle ground.

 

[turbobrick240]

Tesla has just been recycling all the profits back into the business. It's a necessary business strategy. Apparently there are plenty of investors willing to roll the dice on Tesla. I wouldn't be surprised if much of negativity from wall street (plenty of positivity as well) is coming from folks hoping to short sell the stock.

 

[turbobrick240]

People who invested $100 in Tesla stock in Jun., 2010 have $1400 dollars worth of stock today. Not a bad return.

 

[VeeDubTDI]

Tesla has long had a format of "pay MSRP or bye bye", with one exception - a couple years ago, they had a referral program that would give $1000 off the car to the buyer being referred, $1000 in accessory credit to the referrer. (If either the buyer or referrer was in Ohio or Virginia, it would instead be $2000 to the buyer, and $0 to the referrer, to avoid falling afoul of dealer laws in those states.)

That referral program is still in place and has actually been expanded. In addition to the $1,000 off for you and $1,000 for your friend*, if you use a friend's referral code to buy an S or X through 2017, you will receive free Tesla Supercharging for the life of that vehicle, even if it gets sold to a new owner.

*some exceptions apply, as described by bhtooefr in the quoted post

 

[VeeDubTDI]

There's also another exception to "pay MSRP or bye bye" ... if you check out their inventory listings, you'll see that unsold inventory gets regular price drops based on number of days available and total mileage (some inventory vehicles get used for test drives). In the most extreme example of a Model X P100D that gets used for test drives, the asking price is $23,000 below MSRP (but they still want $149,000 for it).

 

[2015vwgolfdiesel]

There's also another exception to "pay MSRP or bye bye" ... if you check out their inventory listings, you'll see that unsold inventory gets regular price drops based on number of days available and total mileage (some inventory vehicles get used for test drives). In the most extreme example of a Model X P100D that gets used for test drives, the asking price is $23,000 below MSRP (but they still want $149,000 for it).

15 % (?) off MSRP

Of course I do not know the number of miles -- and 149,000 is a little out of my league. X 10 --

Before the windfall of dieselgate, I only got 16 % off MSRP on my 2015 Golf TDi --

 

[VeeDubTDI]

15 % (?) off MSRP

Of course I do not know the number of miles -- and 149,000 is a little out of my league. X 10 --

Before the windfall of dieselgate, I only got 16 % off MSRP on my 2015 Golf TDi --

https://www.tesla.com/new/5YJXCBE48HF051921

Way out of my league, but it sure provided an incredible test drive (not this vehicle specifically, but its twin in Seattle).

 

[aja8888]

Tesla has just been recycling all the profits back into the business.

You really mean all the revenues back into the business. There hasn't been any profits to date.

I really like the guy and his products. I'm just amazed at the latitude Wall Street and his lenders have given him so far.

I'm sure if I drove one of the cars he produces, I would be "willy nilley in love" with it. But I am coasting down into a long (hopefully), and not too expensive retirement and can't see the outlay of that much cash for a short trip car going forward.

 

[turbobrick240]

Tesla isn't the first automaker to adopt no haggle pricing. Saturn also had fixed pricing. Most people actually prefer not to have to negotiate on the price.

 

[turbobrick240]

You really mean all the revenues back into the business. There hasn't been any profits to date.
I really like the guy and his products. I'm just amazed at the latitude Wall Street and his lenders have given him so far.
I'm sure if I drove one of the cars he produces, I would be "willy nilley in love" with it. But I am coasting down into a long (hopefully), and not too expensive retirement and can't see the outlay of that much cash for a short trip car going forward.

Yes, you're right. I meant to say earnings/revenues.

 

[Chris]

Tesla isn't the first automaker to adopt no haggle pricing. Saturn also had fixed pricing. Most people actually prefer not to have to negotiate on the price.

IIRC, VW was fair traded back in the 60's

 

[Oilerlord]

Kudos for that sales format
Question please -- Did you place an order?
If so, how was the OTD price arrived at?
In other words, -- Pay MSRP or bye bye??

In Edmonton, we can order most EVs on the market but there are zero dealerships where you can drop in and take one out for a spin. Back in the spring of 2015, we spent a few days in Carlsbad visiting a friend. In SoCal, everything is available.

We took the opportunity to drive a number of EV's including the BMW i3, Chevy Volt, Ford Focus EV, Kia Soul EV, Nissan Leaf, Mercedes B250e, and of course - the Tesla Model S. As much as we would have LOVED to order the $110K Tesla, we bought what we felt was the next best thing - the Mercedes B250e. It's sort of a baby Tesla, with a Model S motor and Tesla battery pack, which gave us comfort that there is some tried-and-true technology in the car. I like that it came with a 36kWh battery, and that only 28kWh of it is being used. I'm hoping that buffer will pay off in the long term against the inevitable effects of battery degradation. The Mercedes also has a decent amount of cargo room which was important for us. The used one we bought had only 6,000 miles on it, and for only $23,000 (less than half of MSRP); it felt like we stole it.

 

[aja8888]

We took the opportunity to drive a number of EV's including the BMW i3, Chevy Volt, Ford Focus EV, Kia Soul EV, Nissan Leaf, Mercedes B250e, and of course - the Tesla Model S. As much as we would have LOVED to order the $110K Tesla, we bought what we felt was the next best thing - the Mercedes B250e. It's sort of a baby Tesla, with a Model S motor and Tesla battery pack, which gave us comfort that there is some tried-and-true technology in the car. I like that it came with a 36kWh battery, and that only 28kWh of it is being used. I'm hoping that buffer will pay off in the long term against the inevitable effects of battery degradation. The Mercedes also has a decent amount of cargo room which was important for us. The used one we bought had only 6,000 miles on it, and for only $23,000 (less than half of MSRP); it felt like we stole it.

Sounds like the Tesla has some formidable competition!

 

[2015vwgolfdiesel]

IIRC, VW was fair traded back in the 60's

Only from poor memory

1957-ish ~~ $1,495 - ish

1958-ish ~~ $1,595 - ish

1959-ish ~~ $1,695 - ish

1960-ish ~~ $1,795 -ish

Waiting list (Tulsa) at least 6 MONTHs -- $100 deposit(?)

10 galllon tank, Air cooled, 38 HP(?) Lasted about 40,000 miles 'til engine replacement - If you were lucky. Cost $300 (?)

Wise money folks got one and had another on the waiting list.

More or less drove "free" for a few years - they were popular

No depreciation, no maintenance, no new tires, batteries etc.

 

[Oilerlord]

Sounds like the Tesla has some formidable competition!

Based on other EVs on the market; not really. I haven't seen the Model 3 in person but I've driven the Chevy Bolt. As much as the Bolt gets compared with the Model 3, if the Model 3 turns out to be a smaller Model S, there is little competition there either.

By far, the Tesla was the one we wanted. If money was no object, a Model S would be in my garage.

Most of the others EVs we drove are called "compliance" cars for a reason. It's obvious that (other than the Leaf & i3) they began life as fossil fueled vehicles, but were the least cost option to convert into EVs for the manufacturers to comply with regulations. My B250e is no different but (for us) had the fewest compromises of the non-Tesla options.

 

[CraziFuzzy]

My fiat certainly doesn't feel like a compliance car (though, yes, I know it is). The engineers really did an amazing job on the vehicle. About the only thing that makes it feel like a gasoline vehicle converted to electric is that the location of the PRND push buttons is huge because it's where the 5 speed stick normally would be, and they didn't manufacture a smaller dash piece for the EV. All of the drive and instrumentation electronics is tailored perfectly for the EV drivetrain.

 

[bhtooefr]

There's also the battery packaging, and how it raised the back seat floor, but let's face it, that back seat wasn't all that useful in the gasser, either.

 

[turbobrick240]

Based on other EVs on the market; not really. I haven't seen the Model 3 in person but I've driven the Chevy Bolt. As much as the Bolt gets compared with the Model 3, if the Model 3 turns out to be a smaller Model S, there is little competition there either.
By far, the Tesla was the one we wanted. If money was no object, a Model S would be in my garage.
.

I would definitely agree that the bolt is no competition for the model 3. To me, the model 3 bears a striking resemblance to a Porsche Panamera. The Bolt is just plain homely. I'm not sure what the GM designers were thinking there.

 

[aja8888]

It sounds to me that his Mecedes B250e is more of a competitor to the Model 3 based on his comments:

As much as we would have LOVED to order the $110K Tesla, we bought what we felt was the next best thing - the Mercedes B250e. It's sort of a baby Tesla, with a Model S motor and Tesla battery pack, which gave us comfort that there is some tried-and-true technology in the car. I like that it came with a 36kWh battery, and that only 28kWh of it is being used.

 

[bhtooefr]

The difference is really the range.

People compare the Model 3 and the Bolt because if you want to go over 200 miles on a charge in a new battery-electric, and you want to spend under $40k, those are your two choices.

Interestingly, there are reasons to get the Bolt over the Model 3 - the Model 3 is almost certainly going to be a nicer car in most respects, and it offers the Supercharger network, but if you want a higher-riding vehicle, or you want a hatchback... you're getting a Bolt.

 

[Oilerlord]

It sounds to me that his Mecedes B250e is more of a competitor to the Model 3 based on his comments:

Not really. For compliance reasons, Mercedes contracted Tesla to adapt their technology for use in their existing gasoline / diesel B250 chassis. It's a safe bet they didn't expect (or want) to sell many of them given their $50K price tag and 90 mile range. The B250e was never intended to sell in volume. I'm guessing they lost at least $15,000 per car, but was a necessary car to raise corporate average fuel economy to continue the business of selling profitable SUV's. Since it was introduced in July, 2014, less than 4,000 B250e's have been sold.

With that said, I love driving it. In 14 months, I've put ~19,000 miles on it. It's nearly silent, uses no gas, no oil changes, no issues. Quite often, I charge it up on days from my solar, or for free from public charging sites. For the city car that it is, it's been great.

 

[2015vwgolfdiesel]

I would definitely agree that the bolt is no competition for the model 3.

To me, the model 3 bears a striking resemblance to a Porsche Panamera. The Bolt is just plain homely.

I'm not sure what the GM designers were thinking there.

Cheap

 

[2015vwgolfdiesel]

......snip.....

The B250e was never intended to sell in volume. I'm guessing they lost at least $15,000 per car,

but was a necessary car to raise corporate average fuel economy to continue the business of selling profitable SUV's.

Since it was introduced in July, 2014, less than 4,000 B250e's have been sold. ....snip..... .

The results of loony toon CAFE nutsolla

 

[bhtooefr]

CAFE does some very useful things, though.

First off, it ensures that the profits from inefficient vehicles are ultimately pushed into higher efficiency vehicle development, preventing automakers from stagnating and causing conditions like the 1970s malaise era or the 2008 auto industry collapse.

Second, because it also requires actual sales of the efficient vehicles, it means that the used market is full of them, improving availability of efficient vehicles to used buyers. This means that people aren't entirely screwed when oil prices spike, as they were in 1973 and in 2003-2008. (Just look at how used values for TDIs - and even older diesels - skyrocketed during that time. That's because CAFE was toothless during that time, and there weren't many efficient vehicles, especially nice ones, in the used market.)

 

[2015vwgolfdiesel]

CAFE does some very useful things, though.

First off, it ensures that the profits from inefficient vehicles are ultimately pushed into higher efficiency vehicle development,.... snip....

Second, because it also requires actual sales of the efficient vehicles, it means that the used market is full of them, improving availability of efficient vehicles to used buyers. .... snip....

Points taken

As I am a bottom feeder buyer (like a VW Golf (S) DSG) rather than a 30K+ VW something or another, I personally do profit.

As for the need to own a used car, those days are gone for me (and mine)

Looking forward to 36 months, bumper to bumper, on my new 2017 (or) 2018 Golf (S) TSi

 

[turbobrick240]

Looking forward to 36 months, bumper to bumper, on my new 2017 (or) 2018 Golf (S) TSi

Good call. The TSI will be much happier with the short trip driving that you do. And maybe your present golf will get the chance to roll over 100k miles.

 

[aja8888]

Good call. The TSI will be much happier with the short trip driving that you do. And maybe your present golf will get the chance to roll over 100k miles.

Now that I am fully retired and driving way less (<10 K miles per year), I bought a 2017 Jetta TSI 1.4 liter, autobox. Nice little car and got over 40 MPG on a run to Dallas recently (with A/C on).

If I get tired of it in a few years, I can sell it or give it to one of the kids. I paid less than $15 K for it too.

But I may look for another ALH (I've had 6 so far) to play around with and fix up.