Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

[bhtooefr]

I don't think it's a problem to make EV taxes roughly equivalent to the road use portion of gasoline taxes that the average gasoline car would incur in a year... but often EVs are charged the whole thing, or even more than that. Note that the Kochs are behind a lot of these incredibly high EV taxes, in an attempt to kill EVs.

 

[kjclow]

A lot of states are contemplating EV taxes, but it's just a bunch of bull****. We pay through property and general taxes, just like other drivers. Gas taxes don't pay the majority of road costs. In California use taxes only cover about 20% of the costs:https://taxfoundation.org/gasoline-taxes-and-tolls-pay-only-third-state-local-road-spending/

Most of the numbers I've seen (for other states) estimate gas taxes cover between 35 - 40% of the total needs. 20% is really low but then again it is California.

 

[VeeDubTDI]

Yeah, I read an article that despite the $36k claimed starting price, the one they tested was a whopping $59k, and that would be closer to the only available versions for a little while. Talk about a bait and switch, LOL. That is a SUBSTANTIAL jump. The Audi A4 starts at $36k, too, and in order to get one tarted up to over $60k you'd actually have to step up to an S4 Prestige and even then have to add a few options.
They'll sell them, though. And the lesser priced ones may even have a longer delayed availability because the higher end ones will be selling I bet. At least for now, without any direct competition.

Your comparison to the A4/S4 is very interesting. Both base cars start at about the same price with similar features, similar power output, similar 0-60 times and two-wheel-drive. The options seem to scale pretty similarly, as well... add premium options to the Audi and you get about the same $5,000 increase as you do on the Tesla. We don't know Tesla's price for dual motor yet, but I suspect it will be similar to AWD on the Audi.

A big difference with the Tesla's AWD is that it will likely double (or close to it) the power output of the vehicle. Single motor is 258 hp and dual motors will likely be closer to 450 or 500 hp. Even the S4 at 354 hp is down on power in comparison to the dual motor Model 3. That probably doesn't matter for most buyers, but people comparing the Model 3 to an S4 or an M version of a similar BMW will probably take that into consideration.

To be fair, the optional Audi interiors will probably be a bit nicer than Tesla's premium interiors. The S4 also has optional adaptive damping (+$2,500) that isn't available on Teslas. So there are some differences, but overall, a pretty fair comparison between the cars.

Now let's compare to a BMW 3 series... starting price for the base 320i is a bit lower at $33,450, but it's 1.5 seconds slower 0-60. The best comparison is probably the 330i, which starts at $38,750. 330e iPerformance starts at $44,100 with the top-of-the-line 340i xDrive starting at $49,900. BMW paint options other than white are all $700. With a lot of (but not all) options, the 3 series BMW tops out at around $60,000, similar to both the Audi and the Tesla.

 

[bhtooefr]

And then there's interior size and cargo volume to consider.

Edmunds will be the source of all stats except for the Model 3 stats (which are coming from Tesla), and the 330e and 530i cargo volume stats (which are coming from the EPA).

I included a selection of traditional RWD luxury sedans, Audis, and the Model 3 and S. I also included higher efficiency variants, in the case of the 328d (diesel), 330e (PHEV), and GS 450h (conventional hybrid) - those cars may well be cross-shopped by Model 3 and S buyers.

Note that hatchback cargo volume measurement is poorly standardized in the US, so using it for the A7 and Model S could be confusing relative to everything else.

 

[Owain@malonetuning]

Was really hoping the cargo volume would be higher on the model 3, at least it's leading in-class but a disappointment compared to the S. 328D wagon seems like the logical option in that price range.

 

[nwdiver]

Was really hoping the cargo volume would be higher on the model 3,

Gonna have to wait for the Tesla Tardis.

 

[bhtooefr]

Unfortunately, their decision to eliminate the rear cross beam at the C pillar, for headroom reasons, made a hatch impractical. I suspect if it had one, the numbers would at least look a lot better, even if it didn't actually have any more real space. And, it'd be a lot more versatile.

 

[turbovan+tdi]

Oh man, tell me about it. I LOVE the roundabouts... IF people actually knew how they worked. Which, most Americans, do not. They'll know all about Caitlin/Bruce Jenner and what is the latest iPhone, and who is going to get booted off Big Brother this week though.
A PSA campaign would I think work wonders for things like roundabouts.

Agreed, its amazing how many people fail at them!!!

And, of course, the fact that a lot of states have been dumbing down drivers license testing and eliminating road testing couldn't possibly have anything to do with that . . . .

It really chaps me when expensive technology gets rammed down my throat instead of just accepting that some people just don't have what it takes to deserve being licensed, and denying them accordingly!

We give ours out in cereal box's, the driving here is very bad.

That's why I like older cars, can't stand all these camera's, big screens to run the radio, hvac etc and all the power crap, really! Push button starts drive me nuts.

You don't know what it's like until you have driven in Toronto, Canada. I'd swear that there are people here who were riding a water buffalo yesterday and are now driving a car !!!

I think BC is the worst in Canada, especially the Vancouver area.

 

[bhtooefr]

And, of course, the fact that a lot of states have been dumbing down drivers license testing and eliminating road testing couldn't possibly have anything to do with that . . . .

It really chaps me when expensive technology gets rammed down my throat instead of just accepting that some people just don't have what it takes to deserve being licensed, and denying them accordingly!

That's why I like older cars, can't stand all these camera's, big screens to run the radio, hvac etc and all the power crap, really! Push button starts drive me nuts.

OK, hang on a second.

What does "all the power crap" or push button starts have to do with driving ability, which is what tadawson was getting at? Unless you're arguing against power steering and power brakes?

And, for that matter, what do big infotainment screens have to do with driver skill? (Well, OK, they tend to be harder to control blindly, so there is that, but tadawson's post was made in the context of self-driving car technology being imposed, not screens.)

As far as cameras... I'd argue that they're a tool, and it's not like they're expensive. Let me tell you, especially driving a normal-sized car in an area where many drive oversized pickups, it's nice having perfect rear visibility, from the rear of the car, rather than being in the middle of the car and having to look around the vehicle structures (which are rising due to crash safety regulations, but that's another discussion - even a low beltline 80s or 90s design, I'd rather have the camera) and the pickup beds to see what's behind me.

 

[turbovan+tdi]

OK, hang on a second.
What does "all the power crap" or push button starts have to do with driving ability, which is what tadawson was getting at? Unless you're arguing against power steering and power brakes?
And, for that matter, what do big infotainment screens have to do with driver skill? (Well, OK, they tend to be harder to control blindly, so there is that, but tadawson's post was made in the context of self-driving car technology being imposed, not screens.)
As far as cameras... I'd argue that they're a tool, and it's not like they're expensive. Let me tell you, especially driving a normal-sized car in an area where many drive oversized pickups, it's nice having perfect rear visibility, from the rear of the car, rather than being in the middle of the car and having to look around the vehicle structures (which are rising due to crash safety regulations, but that's another discussion - even a low beltline 80s or 90s design, I'd rather have the camera) and the pickup beds to see what's behind me.

If you need camera's on your car to drive, you shouldn't be on the road, seriously.

As for technology, big screens are a part of it, they are a PITA. Drove a 2016 Civic and what a nightmare trying to drive and control the radio and hvac and then when I turned the corner, the screen showed the right front camera, really?
All that crap has to do with driver ability, it dumbs you down, and push button starts to me are deadly, ask some drivers killed when they couldn't shut off their cars. Anyways, going off topic here,

 

[bhtooefr]

Badly implemented pushbutton starts, in combination with drivers not knowing how to select neutral, and stacking floor mats can be deadly, yes. Nowadays, they respond to both multiple presses and holding to shut the car down. Back when there were incidents involving them, only one of those ways worked, and people tried the other way.

In any case, some modern cars, the outward visibility is awful, and the cameras really do help. Even when outward visibility is good, cameras sure as hell don't hurt - it doesn't have to "dumb you down" to get a better view of the road that's impossible to get from the driver seat.

I'm not gonna disagree on the new Civic's infotainment, from everything I've seen, it's not good re: abuse of touch controls. My Prius could be better in this regard, but at least it has a volume knob (although I find the steering wheel volume controls better), and it has actual toggles and buttons for HVAC control.

 

[2015vwgolfdiesel]

.... snip..... I think Tesla, and its cheerleaders, are in for some heavy dosing of reality once 2018 models start rolling off the line.
A lot of states are contemplating EV taxes, but it's just a bunch of bull****. We pay through property and general taxes, just like other drivers. Gas taxes don't pay the majority of road costs. In California use taxes only cover about 20% of the costs]

City, County, State, Federal ~~ All greedy & want your $$$$s

And they will get it

Least we forget the first income tax was 1 % and limited to the first $2,000

My Grandfather paid it ~~ $20 ~~ per year.

Fast forward the MAX rate went to over 90% during the war.

IMHO California will lead the charge on the free riding EVs

 

[VeeDubTDI]

IMHO California will lead the charge on the free riding EVs

http://www.greencarreports.com/news...new-fee-on-electric-cars-in-lieu-of-gas-taxes

Lots of states are introducing alternatives to gas taxes for vehicles that don't use gas.

 

[Mark_J]

oil is heavily subsidized by our military budget...????? Not that this isn't true, but I never heard of this. Here is the allocation of US subsidies. No military.

Allocation of subsidies in the United States
Renewable energy: $7.3 billion (45 percent)
Energy efficiency: $4.8 billion (29 percent)
Fossil fuels: $3.2 billion (20 percent)
Nuclear energy: $1.1 billion (7 percent)

 

[nwdiver]

oil is heavily subsidized by our military budget...????? Not that this isn't true, but I never heard of this. Here is the allocation of US subsidies. No military.
Allocation of subsidies in the United States
Renewable energy: $7.3 billion (45 percent)
Energy efficiency: $4.8 billion (29 percent)
Fossil fuels: $3.2 billion (20 percent)
Nuclear energy: $1.1 billion (7 percent)

The long-term cost of the Iraq war ALONE will be ~$6 TRILLION once you factor in the cost of caring for veterans. Even if you reject the notion that the war was to protect our addiction to petroleum it's difficult to fathom Iraq being a threat without the the revenue they received from oil.

There are also 'hidden' subsidies such as the Price-Anderson act for nuclear power valued at up to $3.5B/yr for the last 40 years. And the fact that fossil fuel generators are permitted to use the atmosphere as a free dumping ground; a subsidy of $70B-$200B/yr depending on the method of removing CO2 from the atmosphere.

 

[Oilerlord]

It baffles me that there are so many people ra-ra-ra'ing the Model 3 and comparing it to a BMW or Audi.

But are "so many people" actually comparing the car to a BMW or an Audi? I see it differently. I think most of the buyers are comparing the car to the Model S, in the same way a BMW buyer would compare a 5 & 3-series. I'm sure most of the hype and cheerleading is happening because the price of admission into the Tesla members club now starts at $35,000.

I think Tesla, and its cheerleaders, are in for some heavy dosing of reality once 2018 models start rolling off the line.

I see that differently too. A Model S is pretty spartan inside, and not nearly as luxurious as an Audi S7. If the build quality is around the same as a Model S, I think the majority will be satisfied with the car, given the existing market of "affordable" 200 mile EVs. The Model 3 looks like a Bentley in comparison to the Bolt.

 

[aja8888]

Just some food for thought

If anybody wants to see how Tesla is running itself as a business, here's a good read on the situation. Note the continued earnings loss, large inventory of turn-ins, the price reduction on the model X, the anticipated use of the $1.5 billion junk bond offering, etc, etc. If you have time, read the comments section at the end of the article.

(nice cars, though!)

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4096869-teslas-q2-10-q-tale-woe

 

[turbobrick240]

Tesla definitely has some hard work ahead, but I would never underestimate them. Just look at SpaceX- at one point not long ago they were just dollars away from bankruptcy. Now they are the industry's dominant launcher, in a league of their own.

 

[aja8888]

Tesla definitely has some hard work ahead, but I would never underestimate them. Just look at SpaceX- at one point not long ago they were just dollars away from bankruptcy. Now they are the industry's dominant launcher, in a league of their own.

I have to agree with the SpaceX success, but there was little, if any, competition. Plus, their customer base is limited and not anything like dealing against worldwide competition and selling to John Q Public.

It's going to be an interesting time for Tesla and I wish them success. I think Musk is a brilliant person and very charismatic, but those qualities will just buy him time. The company still has to perform.

Remember, Tesla is taking on the auto industry that has survived for 100 years. I wonder what Tesla would do in a real economic downturn since they probably have no real business plan to deal with massively reduced sales of expensive cars.

I'm a little off topic here, but my interest in Tesla is analyzing the business end of it.

 

[VeeDubTDI]

The thing that SeekingAlpha and many analysts are missing is Tesla's infrastructure development. If they weren't investing every single penny in growth, they would be setting themselves up for failure (which is what a number of lobbyists would love to see). If they stopped building out infrastructure (Superchargers, destination chargers, service centers, etc.) they would be massively overwhelmed by the time the Model 3 hit full production. That would spell disaster for Tesla.

So my advice is to not hyper focus on quarterly profits right now. Accept that Tesla needs to invest everything in growing themselves. A year or two from now, they can start racking up profits.

SA is right that Tesla is in a critical make-or-break period. I personally think they're on the right track and I hope the next Year goes according to plan for them.

 

[aja8888]

The thing that SeekingAlpha and many analysts are missing is Tesla's infrastructure development. If they weren't investing every single penny in growth, they would be setting themselves up for failure (which is what a number of lobbyists would love to see). If they stopped building out infrastructure (Superchargers, destination chargers, service centers, etc.) they would be massively overwhelmed by the time the Model 3 hit full production. That would spell disaster for Tesla.

So my advice is to not hyper focus on quarterly profits right now. Accept that Tesla needs to invest everything in growing themselves. A year or two from now, they can start racking up profits.

SA is right that Tesla is in a critical make-or-break period. I personally think they're on the right track and I hope the next Year goes according to plan for them.

Besides manufacturing issues, two things they need to manage "way better" is taking on new debt (i.e. $1.5 B in junk bonds that will cost ~$80 MM in interest payments annually) and control of inventory which they are woefully poor at. Having no dealer network is working against them in used inventory as they are not managing it well (or not at all). Plus, continuing to produce Model S's in the light of slacking demand and a ton of unsold used ones is costly.

I wish them well, but it will be an interesting time for the next year or two, especially if Wall Street abandons him.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program....

 

[Oilerlord]

So my advice is to not hyper focus on quarterly profits right now. Accept that Tesla needs to invest everything in growing themselves. A year or two from now, they can start racking up profits.

SA is right that Tesla is in a critical make-or-break period. I personally think they're on the right track and I hope the next Year goes according to plan for them.

Me too.

Before taking a Model S P90D out for a test drive, I used to call the Tesla community a bunch of fanboys, and cheerleaders too. The company burns cash, will never be profitable, has a limited dealer network, build quality is junk, Musk is more concerned with going to Mars, blah, blah, blah. My guess is the most vocal of the anti-Tesla folks are the ones that have never driven one. I can respect that a lot of people don't like their cars, but I don't understand the hate. If you don't like the car, simple. Don't buy one.

 

[bhtooefr]

Tesla working on the whole apartment problem with more urban supercharging: https://electrek.co/2017/08/10/tesla-major-expansion-urban-charging-network-elon-musk/

 

[kjclow]

Here's some VW news from this morning: https://global.handelsblatt.com/com...elgate-vw-presses-search-for-batteries-810739

From the very bottom of the article, they are exploring alternatives to lithium batteries.

 

[Oilerlord]

Toyota is too. There are challenges designing a battery that doesn't use an electrolyte as a conductor. The company wants to use the technology in 2022 so we'll see where this goes Along with having twice the capacity, the size and weight savings are a big deal. Hope they can make it work.

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme...rs-new-solid-state-lithium-ion-battery-design

 

[VeeDubTDI]

Besides manufacturing issues, two things they need to manage "way better" is taking on new debt (i.e. $1.5 B in junk bonds that will cost ~$80 MM in interest payments annually) and control of inventory which they are woefully poor at. Having no dealer network is working against them in used inventory as they are not managing it well (or not at all). Plus, continuing to produce Model S's in the light of slacking demand and a ton of unsold used ones is costly.
I wish them well, but it will be an interesting time for the next year or two, especially if Wall Street abandons him.
Now back to our regularly scheduled program....

I currently see 328 CPO and 557 new inventory Teslas across the entire United States. I don't know how that compares to other makes, but I recently heard that Chevy has a >100 day backlog of unsold Bolt EV inventory.

I'll keep an eye on www.teslainventory.com over the coming weeks to see if those numbers go up or down. I've been watching it pretty closely lately, but I haven't been paying attention to total unsold vehicle numbers.

 

[VeeDubTDI]

Me too.

Before taking a Model S P90D out for a test drive, I used to call the Tesla community a bunch of fanboys, and cheerleaders too. The company burns cash, will never be profitable, has a limited dealer network, build quality is junk, Musk is more concerned with going to Mars, blah, blah, blah. My guess is the most vocal of the anti-Tesla folks are the ones that have never driven one. I can respect that a lot of people don't like their cars, but I don't understand the hate. If you don't like the car, simple. Don't buy one.

Interesting observation about how taking a test drive changed your views of the company. I experienced the same thing on my test drive, which was later followed by several more test drives of various Tesla vehicles, including a Model X P100D with ludicrous mode .

Jason and I just got back from a 9-day west coast vacation. We rented a 2013 Model S P85 for the whole trip and ended up driving about 1,400 miles. The idea was not just to rent something that we enjoyed, but to give the Model S an extended test drive to compare it to the Model 3 that we have a reservation for. While the 9 days with the Model S was awesome and has further solidified our desire to buy a Tesla, we'll have to wait until we can actually get into a Model 3 to see how it compares to the S.

 

[Oilerlord]

A couple things surprised me about Tesla, and the Model S. One, like how big it is...like 7-series big. It's amazingly quick for it's size and handles great.

The other surprise is the experience with their "ownership advisor" that rode shotgun on the test drive with us. He was hands down the best car salesperson I've every dealt with, very knowledgeable & professional. He had a genuine excitement about the car, and instead of us dreading the conclusion of the drive where they get you into an office, close the door, and start the hard sell - none of that happened. Right from the onset, he told us he couldn't sell us a car, and that if we wanted one; we'd have to place our order from the website. That immediately put my wife & I at ease. No pressure to buy, no future high-pressure phone calls, just a couple of emails with information we might be interested in. That alone showed me that Tesla is a different kind of car company, and has to be at least part of the reason people want to buy into the experience of owning a Tesla.

 

[2015vwgolfdiesel]

A couple things surprised me about Tesla, and the Model S. One, like how big it is...like 7-series big. It's amazingly quick for it's size and handles great.
The other surprise is the experience with their "ownership advisor" that rode shotgun on the test drive with us. He was hands down the best car salesperson I've every dealt with, very knowledgeable & professional. He had a genuine excitement about the car, and instead of us dreading the conclusion of the drive where they get you into an office, close the door, and start the hard sell - none of that happened. Right from the onset, he told us he couldn't sell us a car, and that if we wanted one; we'd have to place our order from the website. That immediately put my wife & I at ease. No pressure to buy, no future high-pressure phone calls, just a couple of emails with information we might be interested in. That alone showed me that Tesla is a different kind of car company, and has to be at least part of the reason people want to buy into the experience of owning a Tesla.

Kudos for that sales format

Question please -- Did you place an order?

If so, how was the OTD price arrived at?

In other words, -- Pay MSRP or bye bye??

 

[bhtooefr]

Tesla has long had a format of "pay MSRP or bye bye", with one exception - a couple years ago, they had a referral program that would give $1000 off the car to the buyer being referred, $1000 in accessory credit to the referrer. (If either the buyer or referrer was in Ohio or Virginia, it would instead be $2000 to the buyer, and $0 to the referrer, to avoid falling afoul of dealer laws in those states.)