Sound Off on Current Diesel Price

[Tom Servo]

Wow, another big jump here in Lower Alabama this morning. Diesel is actually more or less stable at about $3.499. But RUG? Crap. Stations are up another 15¢, and the ones that weren't when I went by at 8am were up by 9am. It went from $3.179 the other day to $3.299 today. That's about a 36¢ jump since the weekend.

 

[lovemybug]

I'm starting to see a number of stations that have RUG at $3.29. D2 is still holding stable at the $3.49-3.59 range.

 

[DWalk]

I had a dilemma today. I was running low on fuel and needed to fill up. I found a Ractrac that has D2 at $3.48. When I pulled up there was a tanker filling up the tanks. The 2 stations nearby were selling it at $3.65.

hmmmm

 

[Derrel H Green]

One Cannot Prove It Here

So instead of D2 running 30-40 cents a gallon more than RUG at the pumps,
I believe this spread will narrow by at least a dime over the next
couple of weeks and probably by another dime by late March.

Do you mean that the RUG and DSL spread will narrow with D2 coming
down or RUG will climb even higher to narrow the spread?

This morning when I went out for breakfast, I saw
$3.859, $3.959, $3.979, $3.999 (3 stations), $4.079, and $4.099 for D2.
Mobil was the highest, followed by Arco, and then the Chevron
and Shells, with the lowest pricing being at another Arco.
USA was $3.859 but since I will not use it, I don't consider it!

With WTI Cushing Spot at $97.38 per barrel @ 14:04 (CST?), what can we expect?

I'm afraid we are going to be paying more, much more!



D

 

[TornadoRed]

With WTI Cushing Spot at $97.38 per barrel @ 14:04 (CST?), what can we expect?
I'm afraid we are going to be paying more, much more!

I don't know where crude is heading, because I don't know whether Libya is producing oil for export, perhaps at 50% of capacity as I have heard. Much depends on what happens with Q'Daffy. And much depends on whether Saudi Arabia has 4 million barrels of unused capacity, and how long it would take to bring increased production online.

As I've pointed out recently, the quote for WTI at Cushing is no longer a good measure of what US refineries are paying for crude. Most of them are paying $10-$15/barrel more -- or closer to the price of Brent crude. Now, as I've also said, Brent is a flawed benchmark. But for the next few weeks, probably, it is a better approximation of what US refiners are paying.

Now I see that Brent nearly touched $120 today, but closed under $111. And WTI reached nearly $103.50 but dropped back below $97.

 

[TornadoRed]

This Week in Petroleum

The spread between Brent crude and WTI at Cushing

http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twiparch/110224/twipprint.html

 

[EJtdeye]

Well, I decided to fill up a day early and was greeted with $3.99 a gallon at my favorite Shell station . Luckily my Ralphs discount let me have my D2 for $3.89 a gallon. Still a .20 a gallon difference from just about 2 weeks ago. I'll definitely be paying well over 4 bucks a gallon on my next fill up. I wonder when it will be hitting that $5.00 mark .

 

[Tom Servo]

I had a dilemma today. I was running low on fuel and needed to fill up. I found a Ractrac that has D2 at $3.48. When I pulled up there was a tanker filling up the tanks. The 2 stations nearby were selling it at $3.65.
hmmmm

Personally, I'd take a chance on it, unless it's a really old location. I've filled when tankers and replenishing the underground tanks and it's never caused any problems. I figure they're delivering gas and not diesel. I guess you could always ask the driver; they usually hang around while emptying their trucks.

 

[Jamos]

Drove by 3 Chevrons today in the Berkeley, CA area -

RUG ranged from $3.69-3.74
D2 was at $4.05 at all stations.

 

[john.jackson9213]

Derrel,

We both know prices are going up. If RUG or D2 goes up faster - what does it matter to us?

Anita uses 15 gal. RUG a week, I use a few, don't know how much gallons of RUG a week. Maybe 5 gal. or RUG a week to run my other two vehicles. Then I fill my TDI every couple or three weeks with 24 gallons of Diesel.

Let's assume we use 20 gals of RUG and 15 gals of Diesel per week. That means something like 15 x 36 mpg for D2 and something like 22 mpg x 20 gals of RUG per week.

At $3.00/gal for RUG that is $60/wk and at 3.50 for D2 that is $47.50 per week. Total about $107.50 a week for fuel.

Now, jump fuel prices up by 50 cents per gallon and it adds 35 x $.50 to my weekly fuel cost. Or just $17.50 a week and $70 a month.

Unfortunately, I am contributing something way more $500 a month to keep my son in house and home. I sure would like to see the national employment picture get a whole lot better rather than see Gas or Diesel prices drop. Low energy prices are an indicator of a bad economy.

Know this will cause some discussion.

I will be 63 in March, so I understand the fixed income problem. Anita is retired, fortunately, on a California state retirement with full medical insurance.

Not so for me. I pay my own medical insurance, 100%. And everything else. (Yes, we could get married and save my medical insurance premium). But that brings some complications for each of our families when we expire, we both dont want to leave behind. So we keep most of our finances apart, except for our agreed joint expenses like food, utilities, the house cleaning, and our combined vacations. Yes we split vacation costs by contributing the same $$ each month to a joint account and keep the rest behind a Chinese wall.

Bottom line, we whine about fuel costs, because are "cheap" and drive TDI's.

I was born in Scotland. Others said, Scotts were "cheap". My parents told me we Scotts were THRIFTY, not CHEAP.

We Scotts got around the world, so you may have some Scotish blood you don't know about.

Cheers!

Do you mean that the RUG and DSL spread will narrow with D2 coming
down or RUG will climb even higher to narrow the spread?

This morning when I went out for breakfast, I saw
$3.859, $3.959, $3.979, $3.999 (3 stations), $4.079, and $4.099 for D2.
Mobil was the highest, followed by Arco, and then the Chevron
and Shells, with the lowest pricing being at another Arco.
USA was $3.859 but since I will not use it, I don't consider it!

With WTI Cushing Spot at $97.38 per barrel @ 14:04 (CST?), what can we expect?

I'm afraid we are going to be paying more, much more!



D

 

[TornadoRed]

A few points about the relative glut of crude in Oklahoma and the Midwest in general, compared to everywhere else in the world.

One, refineries in the Midwest are running at 95% utilization, compared to less than 85% in the rest of the country and actually only 79.5% in the most recent EIA report. They cannot ramp up operations any further, so they can't buy more crude than they already are.

Two, even at full capacity, Midwest refineries do not produce enough for the region (PADD 2) to be self-sufficient. So the region must import higher-cost products from other regions.

Three, the new supplies of heavy crude from Canada and the Bakken Field in North Dakota are not suitable for every refinery in the region. So the heavy crude surpluses can be reduced only by either sending it elsewhere -- but there are no pipelines nor will any be built until at least 2013 -- or by turning down the flow of oil from the north. Storage tanks in Alberta are already close to maximum capacity.

So, for the time being, there will continue to be relative surpluses of crude delivered to the NYMEX delivery point in Cushing Oklahoma. And the NYMEX contract will continue to be a less-than-perfect hedge against oil deliveries elsewhere in the country. And if consumers in the Midwest wonder why gasoline and diesel cost so much when the benchmark crude price seems relatively low, there are good reasons why that is so.

 

[RichmondKYtdi]

we kind of have the Canadians hands tied, they were foolish enough to think we would want crude oil from them and be encouraging capitalism here in America. Now they are stuck with no place to send the oil. It jumped from 3.40 to 3.69 yesterday. Tornado, i appreciate you at least having economic sense, i hate it when this thread gets hijacked and everyone starts saying that this is just the big oil companies sticking it to the man

 

[nate379]

Went down here. Was $3.84 last week, $3.77 last night.

 

[TornadoRed]

we kind of have the Canadians hands tied, they were foolish enough to think we would want crude oil from them and be encouraging capitalism here in America. Now they are stuck with no place to send the oil. It jumped from 3.40 to 3.69 yesterday. Tornado, i appreciate you at least having economic sense, i hate it when this thread gets hijacked and everyone starts saying that this is just the big oil companies sticking it to the man

The Canadians have one or more pipelines from Alberta to the Pacific Coast; so they are not totally at our mercy, they can sell to others.

Transporting oil by pipeline is the cheapest way, so it makes the most sense to sell to their closest neighbor. There are just a number of complications that need to be worked out.

 

[aja8888]

The Canadians have one or more pipelines from Alberta to the Pacific Coast; so they are not totally at our mercy, they can sell to others.
Transporting oil by pipeline is the cheapest way, so it makes the most sense to sell to their closest neighbor. There are just a number of complications that need to be worked out.

TR: When I was working on the Enbridge pipeline project a few years ago that was going to go from Alberta to the Pacific coast, that project was terminated due to difficulties getting ROWs and agreements with Indian tribes. Has that project been completed? Or can you tell me what company has a crude line to the pacific directly from Alberta?

For the Cushing terminal deliveries from Illinois, Enbridge bought the old Spearhead line from BP/others that ran from Cushing to southern Illinois and re-activated it. At that time, it was engineered to deliver crude to midwest refiners from Cushing. Enbridge turned the line around and set ot up to deliver to Cushing. Quite a nice project.

When crude prices stabilize for a while, and US motorists start conserving again (hopefully), midwest supplies of refined product may get back in line.

 

[XxElitexX]

$3.75 two days ago at an AM/PM. Today its $3.95 :'(

Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk

 

[TornadoRed]

TR: When I was working on the Enbridge pipeline project a few years ago that was going to go from Alberta to the Pacific coast, that project was terminated due to difficulties getting ROWs and agreements with Indian tribes. Has that project been completed? Or can you tell me what company has a crude line to the pacific directly from Alberta?

For the Cushing terminal deliveries from Illinois, Enbridge bought the old Spearhead line from BP/others that ran from Cushing to southern Illinois and re-activated it. At that time, it was engineered to deliver crude to midwest refiners from Cushing. Enbridge turned the line around and set ot up to deliver to Cushing. Quite a nice project.

My posting was based on this map:

and this article:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7519

It appears that there is one Kinder Morgan Transmountain pipeline in operation (#5 on the map), plus two more either proposed or under construction.

 

[aja8888]

Thanks, I forgot about the Kidner Morgan lines. The Gateway line of Enbridge was the one I was thinking about as they had said they were stopping the project in 2008 or so. In any event, the vast majority of Canadian crude is destined for lower 48. The stuff going to PAC is supplemental to what's coming out of BP's Alaskan line @ 800,000 BPD. Refineries in Washington, SF/LA area are users of the west coast crude.

 

[Dodoma]

The diesel price will go down when there is no demand for the diesel fuel. That will happen when alternate source of energy comes in the picture. The diesel is extracted from crude oil by the fractional distillation process. This process will end when everything works with solar or wind or fart.

 

[lovemybug]

Just saw a pretty good spike in fuel prices around here the last day or so. RUG is now at about $3.35 with D2 at about $3.65-3.69 for many of the stations I see along my work commute.

 

[DWalk]

Personally, I'd take a chance on it, unless it's a really old location. I've filled when tankers and replenishing the underground tanks and it's never caused any problems. I figure they're delivering gas and not diesel. I guess you could always ask the driver; they usually hang around while emptying their trucks.

That is what I did. They do a lot of diesel biz being 20 cents less than the surrounding stations. I added a little extra B100 and PS just to make myself feel better

 

[El Dobro]

Just about all the places I drove by this morning have ULSD at .50-.60 more than RUG, with the highest being at BP for $3.89.

 

[BolaB4V]

Was dozzing off while listening to Coast to Coast last night ...part of broadcast was about H. -Kissenger Sec. of state at the time, made a deal with Arabs to not produce oil that we have in the US and buy from them if they bought our debt by means of treasury bonds. 30~ years later we're in trouble. Caost to Coast- on YTube. 2/25/11

 

[Jamos]

Chevrons out here now have D2 at $4.12.
Just keeps going up.
I filled up at my local B5 Propel station late the other night, when their price was sitting at $3.73. I figured it would go up the next day, and sure enough, the next day it was up to $3.93.

 

[Derrel H Green]

Too Much

Chevrons out here now have D2 at $4.12. Just keeps going up.
I filled up at my local B5 Propel station late the other night, when their price was sitting at $3.73.
I figured it would go up the next day, and sure enough, the next day it was up to $3.93.

Almost daily increases down South here in the Temecula Valley.
Only one station under $4, a USA at $3.959 which I will not put in my CR TDI.
The other seven station that I view daily range from $4.039 through $4.099, and judging from
all the bad news coming from 'over there' I'm afraid we ain't seen nothing yet!

Oh well . . what can we do?

As an aside, I do not see as many of those jacked-up PUs with 40 inches wheels barreling down
the road at super sonic speeds weaving in and out of traffic at 80 MPH or faster as I used to.
Could it be that the forty cents per mile for D2 has caused these types to have to park them?

Something good is happening because of the higher costs of D2.



D

 

[itchytweed]

Was out this morning running errands. Prices that I saw were $3.59-$3.79. The spread between PUG and D2 was running about $0.05 and RUG/PUG was running about $0.20.

If this keeps up, with Bernanke's QE2 debacle and the price push for oil based on speculation only at this moment (Saudi's claim they will make up for loss of Libyan oil...yea, right), here comes the double dip. And I am not looking forward to the end game on this either.

 

[boutmuet]

Was in DTLA again today. Saw Unleaded sell for $4.299 and Diesel for $4.499. Spending $4.099 on diesel Thursday looks cheap in comparison.

 

[EJtdeye]

I was also running errands today and diesel at my favorite Shell station was now at $4.03/Gallon compared to $3.99 when I filled up on Thursday. Sad part was that every station I passed by had diesel at over $4.00/Gallon.

 

[aywkubttod]

I noticed on gasbuddy sometimes people post prices for stations on the NAS. Are those publicly accessible? They always seem to be cheaper than everywhere else…

There are pumps at NAS Pensacola (the big base) and Corry Station (where they have the commissary and exchange). Neither seem to have a steady stream of customers, so I don't know if I would buy diesel from either. NASP has the National Naval Aviation Museum, which is free and totally ****ing amazing, so [redacted].

The Nex fuel stations are for military personnel only but, from what I've seen, this is loosely enforced... the only times I've ever filled up on a military installation were while driving the (gasoline) duty vans at OCS. These locations might not be updated as frequently on Gasbuddy because I normally see them at or above "market" price.

 

[TornadoRed]

The Nex fuel stations are for military personnel only but, from what I've seen, this is loosely enforced...

If any NEX or AAFES gas station was selling fuel to civilians, the base commanding officer would soon hear about it. The managers of private-sector fuel stations would not appreciate losing customers because prices at the NEX are much cheaper.

I suppose a civilian, driving a vehicle without a base sticker on the windshield, could get away with fueling up there at least once, if he looked like a sailor and did not act in a suspicious manner.

But if you figure that the most you'd save would be maybe $2 on a full tank of fuel, and that it's not something that you could get away with on a regular basis, there is really no point in making the attempt.