Hi folks ...
2010 owner over here. FWIW, I thought I'd throw out some info about the reasoning behind the buyback rumours.
Canada follows EPA emissions regs if anyone's wondering why a Canuck is following this.
Canadians bought 1,800 A3 TDIs (via a mass-mailing from Audi Canada), Americans about 8,000 (going from memory), so the total number of affected A3 TDIs in Canada and the US is about 10,000. This model of car represents 1/50th of the total number of affected cars in the region; it's a very minor model.
From a Jalopnik reader,
http://jalopnik.com/well-like-i-said-there-were-two-variants-of-ea-189-a-1752108997
There are two variants of the Rev. 1 TDI engine, CBEA and CJAA. CBEA used a one piece NOx / particulate filter, CJAA used a two piece system. All A3s used the CBEA variant; Golfs were switched over to CJAA mid-2010.
The scuttlebutt here is that the CBEA filter is likely to be a much more complicated fix due to its one piece design. This provides some background on the persistent rumours that Volkswagen is having problems fixing the oldest engines.
A NYT article has some more relevant information that, while not gospel, seems to rise above the makin' stuff up level of discourse we've been hearing for the last few months --
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2016/01/13/business/13reuters-volkswagen-emissions.html
Pulling some pieces from the article for those who don't want to read it ...
Chris Grundler, head of the EPA's Office of Transportation and Air Quality, said regulators will continue to "insist on an expeditious fix that will not only bring these vehicles into compliance but also do so in a way that doesn’t create any adverse impacts for owners. We’re not there yet."
"Mueller [VW CEO] said on Sunday that he believed a new catalytic converter system could be fitted to most affected U.S. vehicles in a solution he believed might satisfy regulators."
My take ...
A simple software fix is not on the table (there are still people around saying, "Why not keep it in test mode all the time?").
VW really, really doesn't want to go with AdBlue. Trying to figure out where to stick a 20 litre (5 gallons or so) tank of AdBlue in a hatchback in such a way that it's easy to service and doesn't interfere with everyday use of the car seems like a steep hill to climb. I'm not even considering the technical challenge of then tying the AdBlue into the car's exhaust system. Given the EPA's stance of avoiding adverse impacts for owners, I think we're pretty safe in saying that AdBlue is off the table -- even if it would likely solve the NOx issue.
I.e., any vehicle that can't be fixed by a new catalytic converter is going to have to be taken off the road.
Given Mueller's statement that most vehicles can be fixed with a new catalytic converter, we can circle back to the CBEA engine which had the one-piece particulate filter and catalytic converter and was used in the minority of affected vehicles.
So ... there's a good chance our cars can't be brought into compliance on emissions. I think it's unlikely, given VW's refusal to admit it had an emissions problem for nearly a year, that the EPA will be feeling generous towards VW and let a minority of vehicles remain out of compliance. That leaves VW with the option of buying back our cars. Depending on how badly the EPA wants the cars off the road, they can likely compel VW to buy them back at well over FMV (i.e., an offer we can't refuse). VW, for its part, would likely use a high FMV buyback as leverage to drive down the cost of the likely fines it will receive.
What would I like to see happen? I'd be fine with Audi Canada making me a very attractive offer on an Etron. I was supposed to buying a green car in the first place. It would also keep me going to the Audi dealership -- and last time I was there, they did not look particularly happy about how Audi Canada was dealing with the issue (our loyalty program launched nearly a month after the US's, contained some sleazy language about changing the terms of the deal without notice, was likely less generous).