Is The Diesel Dead?

[jchull]

FUD of the day: The Diesel Engine is Dead

Number one - the diesel engine is dead. Thanks to high fuel costs, tough-to-meet emissions targets and growing competition for scarce fossil fuel resources, the engine once championed for its efficiency and cost-effectiveness is finished. Number two: you are what you eat. And in the case of the oil-burning powerplant, which chomps through a by-product of long-since-extinct dinosaurs… Well, you get the drift.

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/autoexpressnews/221172/dan_strongs_column.html

 

[GoFaster]

Perhaps it should be rephrased "The diesel engine as we have known it for generations is dead" - and given developments in the auto industry, that's already true.

Diesel engines and gasoline engines have been converging in their technologies. Gasoline engines are getting variable cam timing and direct-injection (hardware not unlike diesel common-rail) and high EGR to improve their efficiency. Diesel engines are getting EGR and are throttled and electronic common-rail injection which is moving towards more homogeneous combustion in order to reduce their emissions. Variable cam timing in the interest of being able to control ignition characteristics is not far off. Gasoline engines have knock sensors, diesels are getting cylinder pressure sensors.

I really don't care what the technology is called (or what fuel it runs on) as long as it achieves its objectives as efficiently as possible.

 

[Blinder]

That, and his whole "350/year more than on gas" quip... what is he driving that the gasser version gets better mileage than the Diesel?

 

[Odie]

I smell a Hybrid owner!!!!

 

[GoFaster]

Given that this was from the UK, that's unlikely. Hybrids went over like the proverbial lead balloon there.

I think he is more referring to the possibility that Mercedes DiesOtto system, and similar systems that are compression-ignition but run on gasoline, are likely to be significant factors in the future.

 

[nortones2]

Seem to be selling well despite their price premium: http://www.motortrader.com/25989/Hybrid-car-sales-soar-in-UK.ehtml

Helped by free passage into London: exempt from the Congestion charge, currently.

 

[Hvatum]

Uh... that guy can't even do basic math?

The Diesel gets 45.1MPG, the petrol gets 35. Was he just planning on driving less with the petrol and not going as far?

What an idiot.

And they're going to run tankers on lower sulfur fuel, great now we have even fewer sulfides in the atmosphere, as if global warming weren't proceeding fast enough. Long term though this shouldn't result in much of a rise in diesel prices, since diesel will obviously be more profitable, more petroleum will be diverted to diesel refining. Gas and Diesel prices will rise however. Meanwhile oil companies will reap even greater profits.

A hugely costly conversion with minimal environmental benefit, no surprise that this plan comes from a Democrat (Barbara Boxer), the same one who opposes nuclear energy but tacitly supports the coal industry.

Step one: Pass lots of expensive laws which do squat to actually help the environment.
Step two: ???
Step three: The environment is saved!

 

[Odie]

I was refering to the poster...not where the article was from. I'll try and type slower next time ( so everyone can keep up)

 

[icecap]

Number one - the diesel engine is dead. Thanks to high fuel costs, tough-to-meet emissions targets and growing competition for scarce fossil fuel resources, the engine once championed for its efficiency and cost-effectiveness is finished. Number two: you are what you eat. And in the case of the oil-burning powerplant, which chomps through a by-product of long-since-extinct dinosaurs… Well, you get the drift.

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/autoexpressnews/221172/dan_strongs_column.html

Most interesting in light of the fact that diesel is predominantly the fuel that powers the wheels of industry worldwide. In case you have trouble knowing the difference, your ass is behind you about mid body and has a crack in it and your elbow is part of your left and right arm where it bends .

 

[sno_duc]

Most interesting in light of the fact that diesel is predominantly the fuel that powers the wheels of industry worldwide. In case you have trouble knowing the difference, your ass is behind you about mid body and has a crack in it and your elbow is part of your left and right arm where it bends .

Exactly, do with out everything that diesel fuel didn't in some way; grow , manufacture, or deliver. What's left??

 

[NFSTDI]

Hmmm, just today I noticed a bus on the freeway sooting! I'm thinking, perhaps it's time we take issue with that. Not that I want smog checks on my car but that could be happening soon anyway.

Realistically, diesel is far from dead. I don't think anyone is going to replace their big rigs with anything else in the near future. Heck, they won't even be replacing them with new diesels any time soon. What with all the trucks, trains, boats, and generators that run on diesel it's gonna be with us for a while. Never mind the fact the BMW, Honda, and Subaru are gearing up to produce diesel passenger cars for the US market. My money is on the future of diesel for at least another ten to twenty years, probably more like thirty. After that I'll be contemplating when to stop driving anyway.

 

[al in seattle]

There is a cost to any of these engines...

The plug in hybrids (coming soon) need electricity, and other than in the NW, where we have cheap hydro (at a cost of losing our salmon), in most places that means funding coal or nuclear for your "cheap" hybrid. Wait until the electric bill comes due for that side of the equation. That is, until someone gets on the ball and declares that every house south of the Mason Dixon Line requires solar panels.

We aren't better, it's just different. I just didn't want to drive a hybrid, either it was too small, too bland or just inefficient for driving a couple of hundred miles a week ( I know, I try to work at home but it just doesn't work out).

Diesels are far from dead. The cost difference in diesel is an abarration compared to historical trends. I assume that at some point, probably a year or so out, it will fall back into line with it's historical pricing. (am I missing some part of the equation here?). Hope that's not at $8 a gallon US!

 

[jgilliam1955]

Are Diesel cars dead on arrivel?

I have a 02 TDI Jetta and love it. BUT I hate paying 70 cent more per gallon for diesel. Even though I love the MPG, the consumer will not care. They will run away from the Diesel cars because of the price per gallon. I want a bigger car so my next car will more likely by a Hybrid. Not being able to fit anybody in the back seat is a pain.

 

[TurbinePower]

I have a 02 TDI Jetta and love it. BUT I hate paying 70 cent more per gallon for diesel. Even though I love the MPG, the consumer will not care. They will run away from the Diesel cars because of the price per gallon. I want a bigger car so my next car will more likely by a Hybrid. Not being able to fit anybody in the back seat is a pain.

Prius back seats are a PITA for anyone over about 5'6" to fit into. It was pure hell to put my 6'2" frame into the back seat of one, and I was by myself.

 

[Rod Bearing]

My cost per mile in my Jetta TDI is still lower than a Prius is, even with the gas price where it is compared to diesel. My Jetta takes less fossil fuel and natural and manufactured processes to make as well. When it's life is over as a viable automobile, it costs far less to recycle it too.

And the best part? It's a great all around car for all types of driving, not just a fad niche hypebrid car that 78% of the time is working outside it's design parameters.

 

[LokiWolf]

I have a 02 TDI Jetta and love it. BUT I hate paying 70 cent more per gallon for diesel. Even though I love the MPG, the consumer will not care. They will run away from the Diesel cars because of the price per gallon. I want a bigger car so my next car will more likely by a Hybrid. Not being able to fit anybody in the back seat is a pain.

The Jetta is by far the largest car that gets over 40MPG on the highway even at 75MPH. There are hybrid's that are larger like the Tahoe hybrid that gets 20/20 MPG. While better than the regular Tahoe, that is still half of the Jetta.

 

[velociT]

Have fun with that!

Less demand = cheaper diesel for me

 

[ratmonkey]

My cost per mile in my Jetta TDI is still lower than a Prius is, even with the gas price where it is compared to diesel.

How do you figure this? Current US national average prices (from the EIA):

Gasoline: $4.095
Diesel: $4.645

4.646/4.095 = %113.5 more for diesel

With the average 2008 prius users claiming 46.4 mpg (only .4 mpg higher than the EPA rating on the Prius) that would mean your Jetta would need to get:

1.135*46.4 = 52.6 mpg on average to be equally cost effective as the Prius.

52.6 mpg is just over 10.5 (or 125%) mpg more than the consumer reported 42.1 mpg listed on http://fueleconomy.gov, and 19.1 mpg (or 157%) more than the EPA rating.

My limited experience indicates that the consumer reported mpg are fairly accurate. This is based on my last car, my current car, and my wife's car.

My 2005.0 PD slushbox Jetta has consistently gotten between 40 and 42 mpg so far, which is right in the range of the 40.8 mpg consumer reported ratings are.

I'm just having trouble believing that the average driver with your car is acheiving 53 mpg or more on average. This would make me believe that you've either modified your vehicle or have very conservative driving habits. Applying similar behaviors or comporable modifications to the prius, this may eliminate your cost advantage

Don't get me wrong, I chose a Jetta TDI, because I think they rock compared to the Prius, but I'm really having trouble swallowing the argument that a 2006 PD has a lower cost per mile than a 2008 prius at current prices.

 

[rotarykid]

There are plenty of drivers in 5 spd manual TDI-PDs breaking the 50 mpgUS mark , low to mid 40s on the DSG . I have a friend in southern CA that has trouble breaking 40 mpgUS in her 06 Prius .

I drove the new TDI-CR about 50 miles at speed running around Denver , 50-90 mph . And was able to break the 40 mpg mark without much effort with half the drive up hill pushing it hard not caring about mpgs .

I spent about 2 hours yesterday reading the EPA document that states the current TDI-CR EPA rating is around 25 % low from real world mpgs . If you want that explained search my posted I've created a very detailed description from the EPA data . Using this data and the Transport Canada numbers a pretty clear picture starts to be compiled of how messed up the current EPA rating actually is when it comes to light duty diesels , mainly VW TDIs .

I firmly believe that the EPA test / rating really needs to be fixed but TDI buyers are a hard core group . We are smart and resourceful so I believe the current under rating by the EPA will have little if any effect on the coming TDI-CRs sales . Consider the fact that VW has NEVER advertised the diesel option in the US since it's reintroduction in 1996 but has sold all they wished to import without a problem to date . And most of these diesel powered cars have been sold at a premium .

If you're here you already know of the rating issue and are not concerned . Word of mouth goes a lot farther than a stupid rigged EPA rating system .....................

 

[rotarykid]

4.646/4.095 = you mean 13.5 % more for diesel

Not saying any of data is wrong or correct but It's actually 13.5 % , I'm sure that was just a mistype on your part . It really helps to at least do the math correctly if you want people to get your point .

And I would say there are so many out that are coming out of 10 or lower -15 mpgUS oil wasters to get into the EPA rated 41 Jetta TDI-CR the price difference of D2 to Prem which many of worst of the oil wastes require is a no biggie .

 

[lovemybug]

The car that I had previous to this one was a '94 Mercury Grand Marquis that would only do about 25.5mpg on the freeway. Now, I'm driving a car that gets around 40 on my daily commute to and from work. Not only that, the lifespan is at least twice what the other was. Even with diesel prices the way they are, I'm still money ahead compared to what I was driving. It's more fun to drive too.

 

[vwmikel]

If people are too stupid to calculate cost per mile then they deserve what they get with the lame hybrid.

The Prius is just so hideously ugly and the mileage really isn't that great unless you spend all of your time driving around town.

Then there's the hybrid SUV's......

"Look at me, I've got a hybrid SUV!"

It's still an SUV, you fail.

 

[bogeyboy99]

If people are too stupid to calculate cost per mile then they deserve what they get with the lame hybrid.
The Prius is just so hideously ugly and the mileage really isn't that great unless you spend all of your time driving around town.
Then there's the hybrid SUV's......
"Look at me, I've got a hybrid SUV!"
It's still an SUV, you fail.

Hilarious. I love the "SUV Hybrids". I'm green because I've got a hybrid. I now get 18 mpg instead of 16. People bought the concept though and they sold a bunch of them.

The hybrids are 'plastic-y' looking and handle like a soap box. I'll take my TDI and sleep well at night knowing I won't have any batteries in a landfill.

 

[lupin..the..3rd]

The Jetta is by far the largest car that gets over 40MPG on the highway even at 75MPH.

Have you forgotten the Passat TDI? B5 has decent back seats, and B4 like mine has cavernous back seats - I fit in my back seat without my knees touching and I'm 6'0".

 

[lupin..the..3rd]

If people are too stupid to calculate cost per mile then they deserve what they get with the lame hybrid.

The Prius is just so hideously ugly and the mileage really isn't that great unless you spend all of your time driving around town.

Then there's the hybrid SUV's......

"Look at me, I've got a hybrid SUV!"

It's still an SUV, you fail.

Lol! x2 on everything you just said!

 

[Dimitri16V]

you guys are missing the point here. D2 price was always lower until couple of yrs ago. With winter rolling in and D2 prices hitting $ 5.50 or more , the diesel car will be dead.

 

[scooperhsd]

Prius back seats are a PITA for anyone over about 5'6" to fit into. It was pure hell to put my 6'2" frame into the back seat of one, and I was by myself.

New Beetle seats are just as bad - If you're over 5'6" you are NOT going to be comfortable in a Beetles back seat.
However - the front seat is a much different matter.

 

[cmitchell]

you guys are missing the point here. D2 price was always lower until couple of yrs ago. With winter rolling in and D2 prices hitting $ 5.50 or more , the diesel car will be dead.

I believe the traditional seasonal highs & lows in the price of diesel will no longer be that much of an issue. We've entered a new arena with fuel prices. There are a whole new set of items contributing to what you will pay in the New World Order of Oil Prices.

As far as a Prius... My neighbor up the road bought a new 2007 last summer. She thought she was getting 45 MPG until I suggested she hand calculate her mileage on a few tanks. She now complains that she's only getting 35 MPG. That's because her driving is all open road. She would have been better off with a TDI. I easily get 47-48 driving around here... up to 54 MPG on long trips. I plan to keep this car for a long, long time.

 

[06SpiceRedTDI]

Have you forgotten the Passat TDI? B5 has decent back seats, and B4 like mine has cavernous back seats - I fit in my back seat without my knees touching and I'm 6'0".

I've owned a B3 and a B5 passat, they were both pretty roomy in the back seat. the B3 actually had a little bit of a recline feature, but I must say the A5 Jetta is very comparable to the rear seat roominess of the B5 and ALOT better than the A4.

 

[Dimitri16V]

the issue is a decline in gasoline consumption will have a bigger effect than a decline in diesel. Refineries have no dificulty unloading their excess D2 to China . And the gas stations will always try to maximize their profit by gouging on D2.