Who’s going to Tesla after their current TDI?

[IndigoBlueWagon]

You may be right, but with Mach E sales making up only 1.3% of Ford's overall volume in Q1 2021, they have a ways to go. Chevy Bolt sales were up in Q1, but still totaled only about 9,000 units in the period. In the same period GM sold 62,000 Sierras and Ford sold 203,000 F-Series trucks.

I think the transition to electric may happen, but I also think it will be significantly slower than enthusiasts and the industry predicts. I do think plug-in hybrids will gain in popularity, since they can meet all of an owner's needs with one vehicle.

One reason this will take a while, I believe, is that El Dobro's neighbor with 3 Teslas may have $150,000+ in vehicles in his or her driveway. Not many Americans can afford that. Where I live in MA it's not uncommon to see over $100K in cars in local driveways, but I see very, very few EVs. I know of one on my neighborhood, compared to more than a few Audi Q7s, F-150s, Tahoes, and Range Rovers. In those neighbors' minds I don't think a Model 3 replaces a Q7. Automakers need more models that compete with what people are actually buying before owners will make the transition. Audi e-tron sales have been abysmal. Tesla Model X sales are plummeting and it appears they build none of them in Q1. To me the Model Y looks so much like a 3 it's difficult to distinguish them. People want an SUV that looks like an SUV.

I do know a local TDI enthusiast that bought an ID.4 to shuttle his kids to and from school and activities. If I were to buy an EV I'd be much more inclined to get a VW than a Tesla, in part because I would want to buy an EV from a "real" auto manufacturer. Tesla may be learning, but they're not there yet in my opinion, and stories about poor build quality of their cars persist.

More important, I am unwilling to pay $40K+ for any new car. And EVs technology is progressing quickly enough that used ones aren't appealing to me. That's one thing that will need to change before EVs gain wide acceptance: the used market.

I'm clearly an outlier and I don't in any way think I'm establishing or following a trend, but I'm still perfectly happy driving my 19 year old TDI. And the money I'm saving by not replacing it with a new car is nice, too.

 

[turbobrick240]

It's still early days in the transition. Most manufacturers have been half heartedly testing the waters until quite recently, imo. I think they were hesitant to cannibalize profitable ICEV sales with not yet profitable EV sales. When VW saw the writing on the wall and dove right in, that woke up the rest of the industry, imo. Costs are coming down rapidly, incentives going up, and adoption is accelerating. The latest US federal tax incentives on the table will be a huge catalyst. There will probably be more- possibly a major buyback program. We saw how effective buybacks can be when the offer is generous. Something like 75% of tdi owners took advantage of the commonrail buybacks.

We need a competitive EV landscape. Tesla can't do it all alone. No matter how good their vehicles may be, there will always be folks who turn their nose up at them. Maybe they don't like the CEO, maybe they have sworn off American autos, whatever the reason- it's essential that the VW's, GM's, Ford's, Hyundai's etc. bring their A-game to the 21st century.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Let's be accurate, VW didn't see the writing on the wall, the courts required they invest in EVs. We could speculate on whether or not they would have ramped up development or production so rapidly without a court order, but I think it's safe to assume they would not have invested as much in Charge America without the court requirement.

And a level playing field would not include government incentives for EVs, nor would it allow them to escape fuel taxes. I'm not sure how you think costs are coming down rapidly when pricing on comparable EVs (Model 3 and ID.4, for example) haven't really changed in the past few years. Ford recently bragged that they may be able to bring down the cost of power storage by 20% in 10 years. That's not a rapid cost reduction, in my opinion. Compare that to price history of, for example, LED lighting.

One could imagine that Tesla's dominance of the EV market in some ways hurts the fleet transition to EVs. By making EV and Tesla synonymous, people who don't like Tesla may discredit EVs entirely. Although I try to never say never, I doubt I'd ever own a Tesla. I don't like the company and I don't like the negative perception many have of Tesla drivers. Plus, as I posted above, I don't think they make a quality product.

My prediction is that by 2035 or thereabouts, when some manufacturers are now boasting they'll be "all EV", a meaningful percentage of our national fleet (maybe 15-20%) will be EV. Hybrids will be more common, but ICE engines will still be the majority. I think this will happen for several reasons. Pure electric isn't suitable for some applications. New EVs will continue to be too expensive for many to afford. Despite the increase in charging stations, many drivers who don't have home charging capability will stay away, And some people flat out like ICEs.

I've posted this before, If VW had brought the ID.3 to NA I might have been a customer. I have no desire to own something that looks like an SUV, so the ID.4 doesn't appeal to me. But the 3 is the right size and has gotten great reviews in Europe. I could do a lot of my daily driving in that vehicle and save the diesels for road trips. Too bad we're not going to see it.

 

[turbobrick240]

VW, led by Diess, saw the writing on the wall partly as a result of their prior illegal activity and the subsequent court ordered consequences. They could have easily thrown the required monies haphazardly at Electrify America and not furthered their EV development in any significant way. That's exactly what most of the execs/board wanted to do, but Diess had more foresight and fought to advance the EV programs. He deserves a lot of credit for that.

Costs of EV production are absolutely coming down rapidly. The key element, lithium ion batteries, have come down from over $1000/kWh to produce to under $100/kWh over the last decade or so. I imagine that's roughly on par with the cost reductions in LED lighting, flat screen televisions etc. Not that it need match some arbitrary benchmark.

My prediction is that 100% of new passenger car sales in the US will be BEV or PHEV by 2035. I have wagered a substantial portion of my savings on the success of EVs, renewables, and Tesla in particular. So far, they are proving to be very wise investments.

I do understand that many folks have investments in ICEV technology, and I sincerely hope that they manage to adapt with the changing automotive landscape.

 

[Poor King]

Imo all manufacturers are bringing their A game; case in point the new Ioniq, mustang, i3, bolt, etc... The trend (as with all products) is the public's reaction towards owning an EV and a cult-like following with bragging rights gets the final nod. It is acceptance which sells regardless of their repulsive Croc-like design. The un-sheepishly thing to do is not buy a Tesla.

If I was in the market you'd find me in a Bolt; it's the most car like appliance that appeals to myself as the optimal daily driver without all the fluff.

 

[turbobrick240]

I'd love to see an e-Golf with the range of the ID3/Bolt. The Golf design really appeals to me. It's better looking than the ID3, and much, much better looking than the Bolt. You'd think GM intentionally hobbled the Bolt by making it so homely.

 

[Poor King]

I see the Bolt as the EV variant of the Honda Fit, or the poor man's equivalent of the i3. With comparable range to the T3 at a third of the price, the only thing missing is Tesla's unbeatable tech.

 

[geezer88]

To get to a mostly electric transportation system, the power grid needs major improvement. It will be interesting to see how well this transition is implemented. I bet the growth of electric cars will outstrip the grid expansion, causing major problems. In the USA I see no serious ideas for this upgrading. Meanwhile, the politicians will make it more and more difficult for internal combustion vehicles.
tom
PS; I still want an electric car

 

[turbobrick240]

I think the grid improvements will happen organically along with EV adoption. Here's yet another example of the synergies between battery electrics and grid services:

Coal Plant Explosion In Australia Shows Why Tesla Batteries & Renewables Are The Future Of Energy - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! A Tesla Powerpack recently stepped in to save the day when a coal-fired plant at the Callide Power Station in Queensland, Australia, exploded. Teslarati reported that the explosion resulted in mass power...

cleantechnica-com.cdn.ampproject.org

One thing I'm quite confident of- copper will be a hot commodity over the coming years.

 

[quartersaw]

Yup, EVs are the future of automobiles. You'll be seeing many more Teslas, Mach E, ID4, etc. parked in the neighborhood in the days ahead. I really like the Mach E. I think Ford has thrown down the gauntlet to GM with the Mach E and F150 Lightning. If the Bolt and E-Hummer are the best GM can muster in response.....

I'm retired, so an EV is not cost effective for me, since I now drive less than 10k/yr. My 2002 Jetta Wagon, just might carry me to the end of my days. I'd love to test drive a Tesla, just to experience the 0-60 'flight time'.

 

[gulfcoastguy]

Well today I parked my white ID4 at the back of a Whataburger parking lot. When I left I found a white Tesla Y parked beside it. All we needed was a white MachE and a white Bolt.

 

[Poor King]

White on white makes sense and looks proper. I got to check out a black with white interior and the contrast was too Oreo-ish for my liking.

Since this is an EV thread guess I should mention I finally saw a Polestar 2 and it was underwhelming compared to the pics and reviews.

 

[tikal]

I would think, right now, that the sales of the Toyota RAV4 hybrid are going strong because of increasing gas prices. At one point Toyota is going to bring an all electric RAV4 and there will be a time in the future when sales of the all electric RAV4 will outperform the sales of the hybrid RAV4. That would be a historical milestone in my view and an indicator of the start of an exponential growth of EVs nationwide.

 

[turbobrick240]

I'm not so sure that Toyota will be marking many EV milestones going forward. They still seem to think that hydrogen fuel cells are a viable option. Maybe if they partner up with Tesla again. I see the arrival of the Cybertruck and F150 Lightning as the next big EV milestones in N. America.

 

[tikal]

I'm not so sure that Toyota will be marking many EV milestones going forward. They still seem to think that hydrogen fuel cells are a viable option. Maybe if they partner up with Tesla again. I see the arrival of the Cybertruck and F150 Lightning as the next big EV milestones in N. America.

The arrival of EV trucks in the US certainly might be a big milestone. Now after a few years from today put the graph of growth of these EV truck vs ICE truck sales and see what you conclude.

 

[tikal]

You may be right, but with Mach E sales making up only 1.3% of Ford's overall volume in Q1 2021, they have a ways to go. Chevy Bolt sales were up in Q1, but still totaled only about 9,000 units in the period. In the same period GM sold 62,000 Sierras and Ford sold 203,000 F-Series trucks.

I think the transition to electric may happen, but I also think it will be significantly slower than enthusiasts and the industry predicts. I do think plug-in hybrids will gain in popularity, since they can meet all of an owner's needs with one vehicle.

One reason this will take a while, I believe, is that El Dobro's neighbor with 3 Teslas may have $150,000+ in vehicles in his or her driveway. Not many Americans can afford that. Where I live in MA it's not uncommon to see over $100K in cars in local driveways, but I see very, very few EVs. I know of one on my neighborhood, compared to more than a few Audi Q7s, F-150s, Tahoes, and Range Rovers. In those neighbors' minds I don't think a Model 3 replaces a Q7. Automakers need more models that compete with what people are actually buying before owners will make the transition. Audi e-tron sales have been abysmal. Tesla Model X sales are plummeting and it appears they build none of them in Q1. To me the Model Y looks so much like a 3 it's difficult to distinguish them. People want an SUV that looks like an SUV.

I agree very much. Look at the most popular ICE SUVs right now (Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-4, Jeep Cherokee, Hyundai Santa Fe, etc.), electrify them with minor shape changes and people will look at them more favorably in my view.

 

[Poor King]

Akio Toyoda was expressively against the global shift to EV's and expressed deep concern with the job losses which would directly effect the economy in Toyota land. Here, they've stayed reserved and imo it's not working out for them with hybrid only options. I believe they're dropping an all EV next year dubbed the sbx4. I'm still brushing off all the Toyota excitement with the new Yaris tbh.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

The RAV-4 plug in hybrid is selling extremely well for Toyota. So is the hybrid only Venza, and the Corolla hybrid.

 

[Poor King]

They have been for some time now. Their hybrid sales ($3000 option for roughly 65% efficiency at the is a no-brainer) only offset their non-hybrid counterparts in yearly sales since their introduction in 2015. With EV adoptation in the horizon it will question Toyota loyalists. Toyota knows this and if they don't come up with something up to par with the ID4 and the TY, they will see major loss within the next two years...

Toyota RAV4 Sales Figures

Automotive Sales Data and Statistics

www.goodcarbadcar.net

On topic, Tesla's decision to cut the RWD T3's comes off as a monetary brain fart. A price cut for less moving parts should have been their go to business model since it was the most efficient Tesla to date. A $3000 cut and they would have derailed a lot of bolt, i3 and even ID sales.

 

[tikal]

The RAV-4 plug in hybrid is selling extremely well for Toyota. So is the hybrid only Venza, and the Corolla hybrid.

So perhaps the market for hybrid vehicles has not picked yet in the US specially taking into account that several of these SUV/CUV hybrids have now plug-in capability making it the best of both worlds, all-electric city driving up to like 40 miles and highway driving with a range of 550 miles or so (for the RAV4).

The down side would be you still have to do oil changes and other periodical maintenance that you would not have to do on an all-electric vehicle.

 

[turbobrick240]

The problem with the plug in hybrids is that most people who buy them rarely plug them in. Most of those who do plug in regularly soon discover they'd rather just have the much greater battery range of a full BEV and give up the complexities, noise, pollution, and maintenance of the hybrid system.

 

[tikal]

It will be interesting to see how well the Toyota RAV4 Prime sells.

 

[Poor King]

Practically unbeatable at 35k

 

[turbobrick240]

MSRP starts at over $38k. First line in the owners manual is "Call me Ishmael." The thing has the heft of an unabridged dictionary. It may sell fairly well, but not as well as the Model Y.

 

[nicklockard]

I hope my next car will be an Aptera EV.

The problem with electric cars, to date and so far, is they are trying too hard to replicate ICE cars in weight, heft, and bulky size. They need to pursue extreme efficiency, and then they might find their niche at a lower price point. I'm convinced as long as Elon runs Tesla, they'll NEVER release a sub $38,000 car, making all Teslas un-affordalbe to 95% of the driving population.

 

[turbobrick240]

That may be true of the EVs sold thus far in this market, but the best selling(by volume) EV in the Chinese market is tiny, cheap @~$5k, and one might assume quite efficient. It would never pass our crash safety standards though. Tesla's Model S went after the Mercedes S class segment. The Model 3 went after the BMW 3 series segment. The "Model 2" will go after the GTI/Golf segment, imo. As long as inflation doesn't go crazy I think we'll see that sub $30k Tesla within 5 years.

Light, efficient vehicles like the Aptera are the direction we should be moving. Unfortunately, consumer preferences seem to be going in the opposite direction.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

As much as I agree with Nick regarding the disappointing size and weight of current EVs, I doubt there will be much demand for a vehicle as "unusual" as the Aptera. Keep in mind that Ford still sells over a million F series trucks annually, many of them to people who have no use for a truck. My MKIV weighs about 3,000 lbs., which is a very light car by today's standards. The Bolt weighs about 3,600 lbs. which is, I believe, about as light as EVs get. That's 1,200 lbs. more than, for example, an '02 Civic. But bear in mind that VW decided not to bring the ID.3 to North America because they didn't think there would be any demand. Golf sales support that belief.

 

[tikal]

I agree wholeheartedly with IBW statement above. That's why people are choosing a Toyota Highlander vs a more efficient-to-space Toyota Sienna (I am sure we can find other examples from other brands). That's why the Mazda 5 was discontinued and instead Mazda is concentrating on selling the CX-5 and the CX-9. I am sure the sales of Honda Pilots is going fairly well also, and so forth. Also in the US the choices of wagons are dwindling quickly. They are not 'cool' like an SUV.

Perhaps the Tesla Model Y will sell better than the Toyota RAV4 Prime. I do not think that's the important point in my view. What matters, in my view, is that due to the size and shape of what Americans like to buy, gasoline and hybrid SUVs/trucks are going to continue to sell well for the foreseeable future in the US and it will take sometime to electrify them (too large/heavy even before adding batteries).

On the other hand places like Japan and Europe will embrace EVs much faster than in North America due to the fact that they do not mind smaller cars, they have plenty of wagons to make them EVs and even have real mini vans such as the Mazda 5 and the VW Touran.

 

[Rob Mayercik]

The problem with the plug in hybrids is that most people who buy them rarely plug them in. Most of those who do plug in regularly soon discover they'd rather just have the much greater battery range of a full BEV and give up the complexities, noise, pollution, and maintenance of the hybrid system.

How is that the fault of the vehicle? Unless I'm reading your post wrong, you're saying the equivalent of the following:

The problem with screwdrivers is that most people who buy them rarely use them to pound in nails. Most of them who do pound nails regularly soon discover they'd rather just have a hammer and give up the frustration, inefficiency, and constant replacement of broken plastic screwdrivers from beating them against nails.

There's no logic in picking the wrong tool for a job and then blaming the tool.

 

[turbobrick240]

How is that the fault of the vehicle? Unless I'm reading your post wrong, you're saying the equivalent of the following:

The problem with screwdrivers is that most people who buy them rarely use them to pound in nails. Most of them who do pound nails regularly soon discover they'd rather just have a hammer and give up the frustration, inefficiency, and constant replacement of broken plastic screwdrivers from beating them against nails.

There's no logic in picking the wrong tool for a job and then blaming the tool.

That's a pretty silly analogy. The fact remains that most PHEVs are not being used in an efficient manner. Blame whomever you like. BEVs are a better solution. Especially when you have access to a decent charging network.

On the other hand places like Japan and Europe will embrace EVs much faster than in North America due to the fact that they do not mind smaller cars, they have plenty of wagons to make them EVs and even have real mini vans such as the Mazda 5 and the VW Touran.

Surprisingly, EV adoption has been quite weak in Japan. Probably because they've been stupidly pursuing hydrogen vehicles rather than battery electrics. China, and now Europe are another story.