Who’s going to Tesla after their current TDI?

nwdiver

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I’m sure that many people in 1928 thought that way.
And if they held they would have been fine. Deflation adjusted losses were recovered by 1934. Things are a bit different today with more active monetary management. Welcome to capitalism... can’t win if you don’t play :)
 

Mozambiquer

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Because there's over a dozen ways to use that cash more effectively. If I had paid off my mortgage when I had the cash to do so 8 years ago I would have a paid off house and $0 cash. Instead I left it in diversified investments and I have a ~$100k mortgage and >$500k in cash. Am I better off with $0 debt and $0 cash or $100k debt and $500k cash? If you can borrow at 4% and invest at 10% you should. Welcome to capitalism.
So, how much is your house payment? How about putting that into investments instead? I halfway understand your reasoning, but still feel very much that I would rather be out of debt and have less cash than have tons of debt and lots of cash.
Which is one of the reasons I won't be getting a Tesla, as I won't go into debt to get a vehicle.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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If I had paid off my mortgage when I had the cash to do so 8 years ago I would have a paid off house and $0 cash. Instead I left it in diversified investments and I have a ~$100k mortgage and >$500k in cash. Am I better off with $0 debt and $0 cash or $100k debt and $500k cash? If you can borrow at 4% and invest at 10% you should. Welcome to capitalism.
Well yes, but you happened to do that in what has been one of the longest bull markets in history. Everyone's an investment genius in this market. Sadly, it doesn't always go up. Sometimes it goes sideways, and sometimes it goes down and stays down. If you'd done the same thing in 1972 (or 1985, or 1991, or 1998) you'd be telling a very different story.

And don't forget you've been paying interest all that time, so subtract that from the gains, along with the capital gains tax you'll have to pay when you sell.
 

gulfcoastguy

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Real estate has always been a traditional safe option against inflation and the devaluation of the dollar. Provided that you don't build in a fire zone or in a wetland designated area. The dollar isn't even paper anymore, it's just annoyed electrons.
 

nwdiver

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Well yes, but you happened to do that in what has been one of the longest bull markets in history. Everyone's an investment genius in this market. Sadly, it doesn't always go up. Sometimes it goes sideways, and sometimes it goes down and stays down. If you'd done the same thing in 1972 (or 1985, or 1991, or 1998) you'd be telling a very different story.

And don't forget you've been paying interest all that time, so subtract that from the gains, along with the capital gains tax you'll have to pay when you sell.
Interest rate is 4%. The historical average of the S&P is ~10%. If I didn’t think there was a ~99% chance I could do better with the market over a ~10 year period I would pay off the mortgage.
 

nwdiver

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Real estate has always been a traditional safe option against inflation and the devaluation of the dollar. Provided that you don't build in a fire zone or in a wetland designated area. The dollar isn't even paper anymore, it's just annoyed electrons.
My opinion isn’t that you shouldn’t own a house. My opinion is that you shouldn’t pay off the loan any faster than you need to. You still get the same exposure.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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Interest rate is 4%. The historical average of the S&P is ~10%. If I didn’t think there was a ~99% chance I could do better with the market over a ~10 year period I would pay off the mortgage.
It all depends on what you care about. I'm happier without a mortgage than I would be getting a small return (after interest and taxes) on an investment portfolio that's not without risk. Peace of mind may have a cost, but for me it's priceless.
 

nwdiver

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It all depends on what you care about. I'm happier without a mortgage than I would be getting a small return (after interest and taxes) on an investment portfolio that's not without risk. Peace of mind may have a cost, but for me it's priceless.
I agree but I wish people were more consistent with their risk aversion. The rising levels of CO2 are a FAR greater threat than a market dip. Money is fake. Physics is real.
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
Death is real, too. Rich people can do things non-rich people can't. Nobody working their butt off just to put food on the table and make a meager existence is worrying about what the three-anus sloth habitat will be like in 40 years.
 

nwdiver

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Death is real, too. Rich people can do things non-rich people can't. Nobody working their butt off just to put food on the table and make a meager existence is worrying about what the three-anus sloth habitat will be like in 40 years.
And the exponentially more extreme heat, droughts, floods and fires occurring NOW that would be impossible if our pathetic addition to fools fuel hadn’t jacked CO2 to over 400ppm? If they’re not worried about that they should be.
 
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gulfcoastguy

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It all depends on how you want to save the environment. I'll list a few things that made sense and that I did. Since 1977 I have only purchased 4 cylinder high mpg vehicles until I bought an electric VW. I purchase an already existing house. Then first I added water saving shower heads, insulated the attic, removed the wood burning fireplace bought energy star appliances, bought a high efficiency heat pump for the house, and installed a white metal heat reflective roof. There is more than one way to skin a cat. The local power company converted to natural gas and has started building solar photovoltaic fields generally on environmental brownfield sites. Now I see a lot of big box store roofs that would be ideal for solar panels.
 

Poor King

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I actually see a future in smart load shedding using programmable units. But it might take another 5 years for the technology to get there. Imagine if we could set usage priorities and have the clothes washer wait its turn until after the AC had cycled off, and only during low cost hours? We could cut our peak demand and negate the need for adding a lot of baseload capacity and swing capacity plants too.
In a perfect world, yes, that would work. But the majority won't even put on a mask without putting up a fight let alone allow the government to control their dirty laundry. On my previous post I mentioned the switch to EV's is not the solution to the problem; this is according to scientist who are gathering the numbers.

My desire to see a cleaner earth started decades back. Roughly 30 years ago scientists sounded the alarm that my country (Bangladesh) would be 1/4 way under water in 50 years. So you can understand the amount of suffering endured for some time now. You won't see those hardships on your television set. It is a large sacrifice which has been paid by many countries and their people having being the victims to our selfish wants & desires.

Those are the facts, and personally I sit back at awe at the millionaires and advertising companies who come up with ways to sell us nonsense. These people make a fortune and think they're hot-chit with blood on their hands. You want to change the Earth? Then send those people to the moon and leave them there lol.

It all depends on how you want to save the environment. I'll list a few things that made sense and that I did. Since 1977 I have only purchased 4 cylinder high mpg vehicles until I bought an electric VW. I purchase an already existing house. Then first I added water saving shower heads, insulated the attic, removed the wood burning fireplace bought energy star appliances, bought a high efficiency heat pump for the house, and installed a white metal heat reflective roof. There is more than one way to skin a cat. The local power company converted to natural gas and has started building solar photovoltaic fields generally on environmental brownfield sites. Now I see a lot of big box store roofs that would be ideal for solar panels.


It was never meant to be that simple, the solution to our problems. Then where would be the test of mankind...

EV's are inherently Green in their simplicity sure, yet all the manufactured parts on a current ICE are the jobs of the hundreds and thousands of American families (and internationally). We're invested into the EV industry unknowing of the overall +/- of C02 emissions. I only hope wars don't start over Batt minerals and people whom lose their jobs can make a lateral shift to the EV world with ease and efficiency.
 

Poor King

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Actually don't send them to the moon. They'll just destroy our planetary satellite and wreck havoc on our own orbital shift. Maybe there's a plank they could walk off.
 

pkhoury

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Okay if her house was built with concrete masonry units the walls could almost certainly hold the weight. The question becomes the roof trusses and decking. Hopefully the roof is supported by trusses on the exterior walls with no interior load bearing walls. Also that the roof decking is 5/8 inch plywood, 3/4 inch OSB, or 3/4 inch wooden boards and that there is the correct spacing on the roof trusses.
You know, I could probably tell you, since my business occupies her entire attic, and we opted to not do drywall, so I can see all the sprayfoam insulation and supports.

But prior to the purchase of the ranch, her house had some pilings put in by an engineering firm, because the house was sinking some, due to the weight of it. There's a large pit in the back of the property, and I'm told that was dug out and relocated just to support the weight of her house. Actually, ICF block construction was one of the deciding factors to purchase, along with the 30,000 gallon rainwater collection tank.
 

taleAwaggin

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Well, in a high inflation era.. such as RIGHT NOW. You end up owing back 10% less (in value) every passing year.

Not trying to advocate. Not a huge fan of it myself, but that is what ends up happening. And if that item you owe debt on happens to be a something like a house that tends to keep up with (or outpace) inflation.. you can come out pretty good. You've got to live someplace any how. If its a depreciating thing like a fancy car then yeah no question debt is bad on an item like that.

And I don't think hammer was advocating for the murder of the three anus sloth. His point was to explain why people aren't trying to save it. Because they are too busy working their asses off trying feed their kids.
 
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pkhoury

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Because allowing your money or equity to sit around doing nothing when you have a ~zero risk opportunity to put it to work is idiotic? If you can put ~$15k of equity to work saving you ~$130/mo why not put it to work saving you $130/mo?
It is kinda stupid, to have your money sit around doing nothing. But that's what investment accounts are for. And I trust my financial planner. I mean, I better - it's my mom's brother, and if he's able to manage and grow several billion in combined assets of his clients, well, I don't think I need to question where my investments hang out.

It also gives you a double hedge against inflation. If you owe $15k and the dollar drops in value by ~2% you effectively owe less AND as electric rates rise with inflation the energy your PV system produces becomes more valuable. Win-Win-Win.
As electricity rates rise with inflation. Who the hell is your provider? Ours hasn't raised rates for the 7 years I've been here. Is your electric company for-profit or non-profit?

??? Why does that matter? Can you explain this reasoning to me? It's never made any sense. Why is saving $500 on a $700 electric bill somehow worth less than saving $500 on a $500 electric bill. It's $500. $500 = $500 because numbers. No reason it has to be 100%.
Because we wouldn't be saving that much a month. I think the numbers came out to around $150-250 in savings per month, which was still lower than what the monthly payment for the system would be. Thankfully, power here is around 8-9 cents a kwh, so nothing too crazy.
 

pkhoury

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Yeah I forgot about the foundation. It is the most important thing and not enough attention is paid to it.
I hate to bring up a sore topic, but Champlain Towers. That's all I'll say, but that being said, that's why I don't want to stress out the roof. Bad enough I use the attic for my business, and that's pretty well packed with vintage electronics.
 

pkhoury

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During the last heatwave there was a citywide advisory to not draw too much power by conserving our usage of electrical products. Just being a rando, I am.
They said the same thing during the winter freeze we had in February. And when we didn't lose power AT ALL the entire time, I said f**k it and kept my thermostat at 68 degrees. And our bill? Same price it was any other month. The beauty of belonging to a co-op that doesn't shove a broomstick where the sun don't shine like publically traded utility companies.
 

pkhoury

That guy with the goats
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And the exponentially more extreme heat, droughts, floods and fires occurring NOW that would be impossible if our pathetic addition to fools fuel hadn’t jacked CO2 to over 400ppm? If they’re not worried about that they should be.
So I'm curious - fools fuel... why does it say you owned a 2003 TDI? I'm know for a fact the Prius and the Honda Insight existed back then. Hell, if you really hated "fool's fuel" so much, I'm surprised you didn't build your own EV then. I know some students and professors built EVs back then in my department at my alma mater, of which the college of eng, comp sci and technology are known for solar cars back in the 1980s.
 

Poor King

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They said the same thing during the winter freeze we had in February. And when we didn't lose power AT ALL the entire time, I said f**k it and kept my thermostat at 68 degrees. And our bill? Same price it was any other month. The beauty of belonging to a co-op that doesn't shove a broomstick where the sun don't shine like publically traded utility companies.
The outage numbers were pretty drastic: roughly 5 million for the winter incident at Texas and 6,000+ in here on the east coast a few weeks ago. It clearly indicates that the grid is not ready for climate change. I like the take on this Twitter account because priorities...

 

turbobrick240

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It is kinda stupid, to have your money sit around doing nothing. But that's what investment accounts are for. And I trust my financial planner. I mean, I better - it's my mom's brother, and if he's able to manage and grow several billion in combined assets of his clients, well, I don't think I need to question where my investments hang out.
Your uncle is probably fantastic Paul, but you ought to set up an acct with Ameritrade, E-trade, Interactive Brokers, etc. The user interface on those first two are really intuitive, and the third has dirt cheap margin rates on borrowed money- like under 1%. You'd love it, I've turned on several friends and family members, and we're all addicted to it now, lol. Just don't get caught up with the WallstreetBets crowd and start out conservative until you find your comfort zone.
 

gulfcoastguy

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I hate to bring up a sore topic, but Champlain Towers. That's all I'll say, but that being said, that's why I don't want to stress out the roof. Bad enough I use the attic for my business, and that's pretty well packed with vintage electronics.
It’s not a sore subject. An engineering firm tried to warn them over 3 years in advance that major structural repairs were required. Without more information I couldn’t say about the designing engineer. I will say that engineers who want to protect themselves had better have inspectors watching everything that the building contractor does.
 

Rrusse11

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Interesting discussion on the pros and cons of a solar system. My approach, rightly or wrongly, is to pay for the system,
cashing in on an inhereited IRA. This should enable me to use the income tax credits to pay for the penalty of cashing out said IRA account, leaving me with a 10 year payout on the system, a return of ~ 6.5% on the money currently returning
2.5%. Reducing monthly overhead by $150, and staying debt free.

Like Mozambiquer, I MUCH prefer NO debt. My particular roof, and aspect is ideal placement and position.
25yr warranty on German panels, conservative numbers on output and assumption that electricity prices remain
unchanged. Should I sell, I'm pretty sure I could recover capital costs of the system.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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I'm surprised that paybacks are so long on the system quotes people are describing here. The 6 kW system I had installed 8 years ago paid back the investment in about 4 years. I received an $8K tax credit, a $2K rebate from Massachusetts, have net metering, and received about $2K/year in carbon credit payments for the first few years (those are down to about $1,400 now). Electric rates are pretty high hear, over $.20/kWh, so that helps. But I would think the cost of systems should be lower now than 8 years ago, even if install costs are higher.
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
Your electric rates are almost double what ours are, Peter. Mine is currently only 11 cents/kWh, down from 13 due to some regulatory changes instituted a few years ago. I suspect it might go back up, but I doubt it will ever be that high. Which is good, because my house is all electric. We have no other utilities, used for everything, including pumping water out of the ground and through the filtering system.

Even with the A/C cranking, our last month bill was only $127.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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I think our current rate is around $.23/kWh. It's hard to gauge, however, since our use is almost nil and if we were using a "normal" amount the rate may be lower. We also have some pretty significant fixed charges monthly. All for power that's far less reliable than it was 20 years ago. We have a generator because we lose power pretty frequently, at least twice or three times a year for more than 2 hours, and occasionally for a day or more. Not cool in sub-freezing weather with an elderly person in the house. (No, not me. :unsure: ).

Another pleasant surprise was that our power production was significantly higher than projected, in the order of 20% higher. That made the difference between a small monthly bill and nearly no bill. I might get one in August if we use the A/C a lot, but that's usually it.
 
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