Who’s going to Tesla after their current TDI?

Poor King

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The Fisker Ocean to debut at 40K (bought not leased) to rival the Model Y. The 80kwh batt pack is determined to provide a 250-300mile range. There are roughly 17k+ reservations at hand and it is to debut at the LA auto show. I was always a fan of the Fisker Karma and this one too bodes well to my eyes. Like the Karma it sports a solar panel on the roof which will provide a 1000 free-miles-per-year.

 

pkhoury

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Now all that needs to be done is get the energy density higher, so you can pack more charge in a given space, kinda like what Lithium Ion did to NiMH almost three decades ago. Maybe we'll actually see 1000 mile charge EVs at the end of this decade, with batteries that last 20 years.
 

kjclow

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I'd much rather own than lease a Tesla. Many of the used ones are selling for more than new right now because demand is so strong. Once the Berlin and Austin plants come online demand may not outstrip production by such a wide margin, but they still should continue to destroy ICEV in respect to depreciation.
Many used cars are selling for more than new right now since the manufacturers cannont get the chips to finish the cars on the line.
 

kjclow

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Just making the case that there's always a catch; or at the least speculating the prolonged effects of EV ownership. My stance remains firm on the purchase of USED ICE/EV vehicles as the definitive way to keep our C02 in check.

It's a well known fact that China owns 75-90% of the world's rare minerals. Minerals that are needed for such an EV initiative to be successful for the foreseeable future. Therefore visualizing an affordable EV market is a bit tough in regards to batt sales and replacements. Turn on the television and watch all the high tension between UK/US against the Chinese: it is for that specific reason.
China does not own that high of percentage of rare earth metals. They may currently be mining that high of percentage becasue they are not being good stewards of the environment. There are currerntly two major lithium mine projects being debated over their environmental impact in the Charlotte area right now. They are saying that the deposits are someof the largest in the world. There is also an active gold mine, as well as many inactive ones.

They're fighting a titanium mine in Georgia right now. Can't forget the diamond mines in Alabama, Arkansas, and Mantitoba (might be Ontario). About the only metal I can think of that is limted to one region is cobalt. Current mining is limited to Africa and makes conflict diamond trade look resonable.
 

kjclow

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I heard a news story today that 75% of the containers going from the US to China are currently empty. Shipping costs and tariffs are too high to make it worthwhile for many producers to send product to China. But they need the containers because we're buying tons of their product.
My wife was reading that article yesterday. Shipping prices have gone up 7x for goods going back to Asia, plus the friegt increase to get material to the ports. The farmers can afford to ship their grain, so containers are returning empty.
 

kjclow

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Soybeans, corn, straw, and most commodities typically don't get shipped in shipping containers. And things like software don't need ships at all.
Containers are used for whatever they can hold. Except for liquids, those you ship in ISOcontainers. The days of shipping loose bulk grain have long vanished.
 

kjclow

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Now all that needs to be done is get the energy density higher, so you can pack more charge in a given space, kinda like what Lithium Ion did to NiMH almost three decades ago. Maybe we'll actually see 1000 mile charge EVs at the end of this decade, with batteries that last 20 years.
Battery technology is being worked on. The biggest hurdles are charging time, battery degradation, and weight. Range is a seconadry issue but should improve if they can cut weight.
 

Mozambiquer

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China does not own that high of percentage of rare earth metals. They may currently be mining that high of percentage becasue they are not being good stewards of the environment. There are currerntly two major lithium mine projects being debated over their environmental impact in the Charlotte area right now. They are saying that the deposits are someof the largest in the world. There is also an active gold mine, as well as many inactive ones.

They're fighting a titanium mine in Georgia right now. Can't forget the diamond mines in Alabama, Arkansas, and Mantitoba (might be Ontario). About the only metal I can think of that is limted to one region is cobalt. Current mining is limited to Africa and makes conflict diamond trade look resonable.
Most of the lithium mines in Africa are actually owned or run by the Chinese. The working conditions are atrocious.
 

turbobrick240

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Containers are used for whatever they can hold. Except for liquids, those you ship in ISOcontainers. The days of shipping loose bulk grain have long vanished.
That must come as quite a surprise to all of the bulk carriers carrying bulk commodities across the seas.

 

Poor King

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From what I gather it will take roughly 5 years for China to overtake the US as the leading Global economy. The trade of these batt minerals have only excelled that landmark shift, which will ultimately cause the rate of the American dollar to drop exponentially. Thus it is the very American corporations and general consumers whom sourced Chinese labor and goods, that are now responsible for their very own profits to lose its overall value (not to mention folks like you and I who have had no hand in this but have to pay for their mistakes).

Then there's the argument of claiming Capitalism works. Sure it does for the investor and trade corps to better their earnings, though on-the-other-hand the very unrestrictive exercise of the capitalistic model is the root cause for this uptick in our global weather system. There are no amount of EV's which can ever solve the Global havoc we are now faced with without challenging our own greed, so stop buying new things maybe 🤷‍♂️
 

bigsexyTDI

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I heard a news story today that 75% of the containers going from the US to China are currently empty. Shipping costs and tariffs are too high to make it worthwhile for many producers to send product to China. But they need the containers because we're buying tons of their product.
It's wreaking havoc on goods from other parts of the world in the meantime. I work for a Japanese tire manufacturer, and our backorder situation is out of control due to this chaos.
 

nwdiver

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I was looking specifically for a PV system around 25kW. I wouldn't waste my time with anything under 15kW. But like I said, the upfront costs were rather high.

And I don't pee in a bottle when I drive. If I'm out in the country, I do what other country folk do - find a good bush. Unless an EV is self driving, I probably would take breaks. I drove my mother's since-sold 4Runner a few times, and I had to take frequent nap breaks, because that boring car would make me sleepy. I drive a standard for a reason.


So for long trips - how many miles would you typically get while towing? My 5x14 tandem axle is only 1240 empty. On either TDI, I'm looking at 400-500 per tank.

Last question - how is parts availability in the rare chance of collisions? I have yet to see a Tesla at the local junkyards, though I did see my first Maserati there on Tuesday...


Out of curiosity, how many miles do you drive a year?



I guess that's why, if I owned an EV, I'd do the work myself. The only time I ever take my TDIs to the dealer is if I need to buy parts I can't get from rock auto/ID Parts, or I'm getting my windows tinted.
A 25kW PV system shouldn't cost more than ~$60k and it's going to produce ~45MWh/yr. That's a ~10 year payback BEFORE the federal tax credit or ~8 years after the FTC.

The Cyber truck should be able to achieve ~300 miles per charge while towing. IMHO stopping for ~20 minutes every 2.5 hours of driving is a small price to pay for a more responsible fuel source and it's going to even out over the course of a year when your driveway IS where you get fuel.

I've never been in a collision so I have no idea about parts.

I've had my Model S for 8.5 years and I have 187,000 miles on it so ~22,000/yr but I barely drove during the pandemic so the average is a bit higher.
 
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Abacus

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...20 minutes every 2.5 hours of driving is a small price to pay for a more responsible fuel source
Define “responsible”. 60% of the electricity in the US is generated by fossil fuels and another 20% by nuclear. Only 17.9% of US electricity is derived from wind, hydro, & solar (eia.gov source).

A horsepower is derived from BTU’s, so it takes an appreciable amount to move X tons Y miles. The issue is the loss of efficiency in transferring from one medium to another, coupled with the efficiency losses within said medium already. Those charging from their own solar or renewables are doing it right, IMHO.
 

nwdiver

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A horsepower is derived from BTU’s, so it takes an appreciable amount to move X tons Y miles.
You don't need to guess... this is a known quantity. ~300wh per mile for a large EV.

So on average ~130g of CO2 per mile vs ~2x that for a diesel that gets ~40mpg. And that 130g/mi for an EV assumes grid mix which EVs don't use 'grid mix'. They are predominantly charged off-peak when renewables are more abundant. Soon enough we should be able to aggregate EVs so that the vast majority of energy used to charge them will be surplus renewables that would have gone to waste if there wasn't a wheeled battery waiting to soak up orphaned electrons.
 

turbobrick240

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About the only metal I can think of that is limted to one region is cobalt. Current mining is limited to Africa and makes conflict diamond trade look resonable.
Roughly 2/3 of current cobalt supplies come from DRC/Africa. Australia has massive cobalt deposits as well. A lot of cobalt is produced as a secondary product from nickel & and other metal mining operations. The good news is that cobalt is becoming less and less necessary in Li ion battery formulations. Tesla has demonstrated that it can be virtually eliminated from nickel based chemistries, and it was never needed in Iron based chemistries.
 

kjclow

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You don't need to guess... this is a known quantity. ~300wh per mile for a large EV.

So on average ~130g of CO2 per mile vs ~2x that for a diesel that gets ~40mpg. And that 130g/mi for an EV assumes grid mix which EVs don't use 'grid mix'. They are predominantly charged off-peak when renewables are more abundant. Soon enough we should be able to aggregate EVs so that the vast majority of energy used to charge them will be surplus renewables that would have gone to waste if there wasn't a wheeled battery waiting to soak up orphaned electrons.
If (when) EVs become the dominant vehicle choice, I have a hard time understanding your comment above. The SOP will become: drive to work, drive home from work, plug the car in. That would indicate that most charging will take place in early evening when everyone is also making dinner and ramping up the HVAC system to make it more comfortable in the house. Even if we assume that all chargers have a timer to initiate charging after midnight, just for a choice of time, then you know have all of these chargers coming on line so the peak will shift.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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One big challenge here in the Northeast might be that most power plants are already pretty much maxed out, and there's a lot of resistance to setting up renewables in many locations. Solar has an easier road of it, but some towns are considering prohibiting solar unless it's mounted on a building. And most towns don't allow windmills in residential neighborhoods.

That aside, who the heck knows what charging demand and timing will look like.
 

nwdiver

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If (when) EVs become the dominant vehicle choice, I have a hard time understanding your comment above. The SOP will become: drive to work, drive home from work, plug the car in. That would indicate that most charging will take place in early evening when everyone is also making dinner and ramping up the HVAC system to make it more comfortable in the house. Even if we assume that all chargers have a timer to initiate charging after midnight, just for a choice of time, then you know have all of these chargers coming on line so the peak will shift.
When I said 'aggregate EVs' I mean combine them into a network creating a 'virtual power plant' as Tesla is already doing with their PowerWalls. You get home, plug-in and your car joins thousands of others in a 'virtual power plant'. Wind is being curtailed? Cars in the network charge faster. Demand has picked up but wind is the same? Cars in the network charge slower. The utility wastes less renewable energy and you get to charge your car for next to nothing. Ford even wants to make this Bi-Directional where your car can actually sell power into the grid.
 
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nwdiver

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Oh I'm sure the power station managers would love that, LOL...

bkmetz ??? :D
Why wouldn't they? Instead of a big thermal plant cutting its output because wind turbines ramped up they get to chug along at exactly 1100MW while the EV fleet fluctuates with variations in supply and demand. What they hate is when you have 27GWs of wind predicted to be a full capacity from 1am - 4am but demand is only going to be 25GW. 4M EVs each wanting ~10kWh and they don't much care when would solve that problem.

Not only do EVs get cleaner as the grid gets cleaner... they're also going to help the grid get cleaner faster by helping to integrate more renewables :D
 
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gulfcoastguy

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One thing to do with surplus energy is to make ice. There are cooling plants that can use cheaper energy at night to make ice then use the ice to cool the building during the daytime.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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Ford even wants to make this Bi-Directional where your car can actually sell power into the grid.
A local power company is already doing something close to this. My colleague has solar and is installing powerwalls. His power company will pay him to run off his batteries during peak demand periods. Helps them put off building more capacity.
 

nwdiver

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One thing to do with surplus energy is to make ice. There are cooling plants that can use cheaper energy at night to make ice then use the ice to cool the building during the daytime.
Here's an article from 5 years ago. I'm guessing cost is one reason it never really took off. They're quoting $1,000/kW. Most EVs have at least a ~7kW charger so adding an EV to a network would provide the same value as ~$7,000 in ice storage.
 

nwdiver

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As you said, five years ago. How expensive were lithium ion car batteries 5 years ago.
Refrigeration is a pretty mature technology, not really any opportunities to do more with less. If anything the cost has gone up in the past 5 years. Ice storage would be even worse since the bulk of the cost is going to be just raw materials.
 

pkhoury

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A 25kW PV system shouldn't cost more than ~$60k and it's going to produce ~45MWh/yr. That's a ~10 year payback BEFORE the federal tax credit or ~8 years after the FTC.
That's also $60K I don't have. I think the quote I got for a 25kW system through our co-op was under $30K, but still, it's money I don't have. And I honestly wasn't wild about a loan through them, because there's still interest tacked onto it.

The Cyber truck should be able to achieve ~300 miles per charge while towing. IMHO stopping for ~20 minutes every 2.5 hours of driving is a small price to pay for a more responsible fuel source and it's going to even out over the course of a year when your driveway IS where you get fuel.
Yeah, probably not for me. Right now, I have my truck parked down by my gate. It's a 1995 F-450, and I keep my 20 foot trailer permanently attached, since I don't use the truck without the trailer, and quite frankly, it's a pain in the ass having to hook/unhook the trailer on that truck by myself. I suppose if I went the EV route, I could charge it in the same spot, but I don't want to think of what it would cost to run a charger down there. Distance-wise, it's about 800 feet from my breaker box, and I don't currently have any power going there right now. I also would assume the charging station for residential use is water resistant, like what I would see in a parking lot for a supercharger?

When I'm in my truck, I try to get to my destination and back as quick as possible. As it stands right now, the last time I used it to get alfalfa, I'd leave the house around 10am and get home around 10 hours later, or more. I really don't want to prolong a trip even further. But I guess 300 miles per charge while towing means I'd only have to charge once somewhere, right? Also, what is the towing capacity on the cybertruck? I've been contemplating financing a gooseneck next year, to the tune of 25-30 feet with a dovetail that I can open myself without breaking my back, and dual axle tandem wheel, ideally with a 20,000 GVWR (so about 14K carrying capacity). I'm guessing the Cybertruck has a standard 5th wheel hitch in the bed, like I'd find on my 1.5 ton?

I've never been in a collision so I have no idea about parts.
I've been in quite a few. Just ask @turbobrick240 about my luck with deer. Hit a white tail on the way to his farm a few years back. That wasn't a fun night. In my neck of the woods, we have white tail and Axis deer, black buck antelope, wild hogs, coons, and vultures. Yes, people have hit vultures, which usually means a broken windshield and regurgitated stomach contents all over the interior. I've heard horror stories from a friend who owns a body shop in town.

I've had my Model S for 8.5 years and I have 187,000 miles on it so ~22,000/yr but I barely drove during the pandemic so the average is a bit higher.
Same here. Last year, I only drove about 53K miles, but I'm usually putting on 55K-80K a year. This year, I might be even lower, at around 40K projected. It's not uncommon for me to drive 350-500 miles in a single day in-state for work purposes.
 

pkhoury

That guy with the goats
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Battery technology is being worked on. The biggest hurdles are charging time, battery degradation, and weight. Range is a seconadry issue but should improve if they can cut weight.
Charging time to me would definitely be the biggest hurdle. I don't like milling around at a fuel station, acting like a tourist. I like to get my fuel, record my mileage on a receipt for later input into excel, and be on my way. Or if I'm tired, I might take a 20-120 min nap in the packing lot with the AC on full blast (did that yesterday while it was 105 in Houston).
 
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