VW Won't Attempt to Regain Diesel Leadership in US; Many TDI Models May Never Return

[thebigarniedog]

The agenda that some have against diesel made this outcome all too predictable when this whole mess started. Re-read the news articles and this is apparent with the attitude that regulators have for diesel. This club straddled the fence while it was happening. Welcome to Pennocks Fiero Forum, an analogy well suited for what is to come to this forum.

Diesel will continue in the consumer truck industry, because people are willing to pay for them. Look at the profit, I mean price commanded by these vehicle comparable to their gas siblings.

Paying too much for automobiles is nothing new. When the 2009 launched, I mocked those paying $3000 over MSRP "market adjusted prices". You know who you are and you dumped that car soon enough for the next perceived "it" vehicle. The MK3 generation Passat station wagons with their bigger fuel tanks and the Mk4 station wagons with their "unicorn" tags and crazy pricing are just a memory to those who likewise paid ridiculous amounts to have the perceived "it" vehicle. It seemed to be a push back by folks that were stuck with having to buy a station wagon to call it something it was not. That sounds familiar .

You can buy what you want, but you cannot future proof time.

 

[chadbag]

Outside of highly regulated states like Massachusetts and California....
Was thinking you might be joking....
But some folks actually forget...just move to "NH, home of live free or die" or most other rural is state...it's like day and night...nobody telling you what to do or legislation say you must....

Exactly. I moved to Mass when I was 10 and spent my time through HS there, and then another 2.5 years later. We lived on the border of NH right south and a hair west of Nashua. Later, when I had a chance to work at a startup I moved back to the area, but this time 20 miles north in NH. It was like night and day. Later I was doing contracting in Mass while living in NH. There was a physical feeling of a weight being lifted off me every time I drove back across the border.


Every state has stupidity in it, but some have more than others.

 

[k1xv]

Its nice living next to NH. We can shop tax free, and then go back to VT and escape those NH property taxes. NH is the only place I have ever seen where there is a liquor store in an interstate highway rest area.

Better have good uninsured motorist coverage though. NH lets people drive without insurance.

 

[chadbag]

Its nice living next to NH. We can shop tax free, and then go back to VT and escape those NH property taxes. NH is the only place I have ever seen where there is a liquor store in an interstate highway rest area.

Better have good uninsured motorist coverage though. NH lets people drive without insurance.

Lack of sales tax and personal income tax makes up for the property tax.

You should have good uninsured and underinsured insurance anyway as lots (most?) just keep the minimum legally required which basically is nothing if you are in a real serious accident.

 

[ZippyNH]

Its nice living next to NH. We can shop tax free, and then go back to VT and escape those NH property taxes. NH is the only place I have ever seen where there is a liquor store in an interstate highway rest area.

Better have good uninsured motorist coverage though. NH lets people drive without insurance.

Hey...we also started the state lottery system....
We know how to milk a tourist of their $$....
Funny thing is, every statistic I see always says we have a higher percentage of insured drivers than in Massachusetts where insurance is required, regulated, and very $$$.

 

[Steve Addy]

Lower volume of future fuel sales will dry up the stations carrying diesel. Can't escape market forces. Charging stations will be more prevalent.

This would be highly unlikely. All major convenience stores in Iowa now have at least a couple diesel pumps.

The 'you'll never find fuel' argument as always kind of struck me as being a non-issue anyway, at least from the perspective of where I live. And having ventured out in a radius of 10-12 hours or so I've never had a problem.

At least in the free part of the US, most diesel sold at retail is for the pickup truck market. Almost every station (including one of the Costcos) in our area carries diesel. And while I see a lot of TDIs on the road, there are more diesel pickups and their tanks are twice as big as the JSW and 2.5 to 3 times as big as the GSW tank.

You won't see EV (electric vehicles) take off in any volume until the technology is a lot better. We are talking a decade at least and maybe 2 decades. You will have to have 500 mile range on full, 80% charge 400 mile, and that with real driving -- highway speed, hilly and mountainous, as well as stop and go and city traffic all in one trip, with A/C going for the EV to replace the gas/diesel car in the US. People are used to being able to drive 350-500 miles on a tank of gas, highway speed (75-80+), up hills, down hills, with A/C blaring or in the deep winter. They are not going to take a step back to 200 mile range (of real driving -- 300+ mile range car will get 200 miles of real driving at highway speed, hilly terrain, A/C blaring, or deep winter). And the 80% charge will have to be 10 minutes or less. The only place you will see major EV headway inside a decade will be in the really urbanized areas. We are still a long way from that technology for much larger capacity and much faster charging.

And there is no infrastructure to support it. And you will have to build all that infrastructure on a mega scale to support this mass of EV cars being predicted.

EV cars *are* the future. In 20 or more years.

In the meantime, the plugin-hybrid will be a stepping stone to EV majority, because you can use the EV mode (20-50 miles) for most of your daily driving [a majority -- I know some people have longer commutes] but you can always switch to gasoline mode when you need to drive far, and can do a 5 minute fill up of your tank and keep going.

Even the very latest announced 100kwh Tesla would not allow me to drive from SLC to Las Vegas without a major re-charging stop. It is supposed to be 300-370 miles but at 80mph up and down the mountains with A/C on I bet it is no where near 300 miles. Even the supercharger from Tesla takes over an hour to get an 85kwh car to 90%. That won't cut it on a road trip and SLC to Las Vegas is not that far -- about 425 miles depending on where you stop and where you end in Vegas.

Pickup trucks, exactly. Trucks are and will continue to drive the diesel market. With smaller diesel engines from Ram and Chevrolet now people in urban areas who think they need a truck now can get a diesel in a half ton, which hasn't been available since the 90's and then only on Chevy.

The agenda that some have against diesel made this outcome all too predictable when this whole mess started. Re-read the news articles and this is apparent with the attitude that regulators have for diesel. This club straddled the fence while it was happening. Welcome to Pennocks Fiero Forum, an analogy well suited for what is to come to this forum.

Diesel will continue in the consumer truck industry, because people are willing to pay for them. Look at the profit, I mean price commanded by these vehicle comparable to their gas siblings.

Paying too much for automobiles is nothing new. When the 2009 launched, I mocked those paying $3000 over MSRP "market adjusted prices". You know who you are and you dumped that car soon enough for the next perceived "it" vehicle. The MK3 generation Passat station wagons with their bigger fuel tanks and the Mk4 station wagons with their "unicorn" tags and crazy pricing are just a memory to those who likewise paid ridiculous amounts to have the perceived "it" vehicle. It seemed to be a push back by folks that were stuck with having to buy a station wagon to call it something it was not. That sounds familiar .

You can buy what you want, but you cannot future proof time.

I would have to agree with you on the demise aspect of this but I'm not yet sure where the impetus for that came from. It has been suggested that the big US guys didn't like the direction it was headed and the fact that their products lagged, but that could be just wishful thinking.

Personally I'm in agreement with many who have posted up about what happens from here on out should VW truly discontinue (yet again) diesel into the US.

There are people (like me) who don't really give the EPA a lot of credit for much of anything but being a bunch of bumbling idiots causing private enterprise trouble, which they did for VW here.

Will people abandon diesel just because the EPA says naughty? Certainly not, in fact I would suggest that it will do to the TDI exactly what VW voluntarily did after 1997 MY when they elected to not bring the tdi back in the B5 platform.

The pricing on cars that remain in the US will be good, because there will be no more and we don't yet know what VW will not buy back either. When quantity of what people want declines prices tend to rise accordingly.

While there are some that suggest the B4 / Mk3 are too old now I would say perhaps, but I would think that in the 'free part(s) of the US' there are some of us who would prefer to maintain the lower tech products simply because the parts are plentiful and low cost and because in the end the manufacturer (or anyone else for that matter) cant track you via your vehicle. (Doubt me? Ford fired a VP for admitting it and Mulally had to back pedal on the statement)

Steve

 

[ZippyNH]

This would be highly unlikely. All major convenience stores in Iowa now have at least a couple diesel pumps.

The 'you'll never find fuel' argument as always kind of struck me as being a non-issue anyway, at least from the perspective of where I live. And having ventured out in a radius of 10-12 hours or so I've never had a problem.



Pickup trucks, exactly. Trucks are and will continue to drive the diesel market. With smaller diesel engines from Ram and Chevrolet now people in urban areas who think they need a truck now can get a diesel in a half ton, which hasn't been available since the 90's and then only on Chevy.



I would have to agree with you on the demise aspect of this but I'm not yet sure where the impetus for that came from. It has been suggested that the big US guys didn't like the direction it was headed and the fact that their products lagged, but that could be just wishful thinking.

Personally I'm in agreement with many who have posted up about what happens from here on out should VW truly discontinue (yet again) diesel into the US.

There are people (like me) who don't really give the EPA a lot of credit for much of anything but being a bunch of bumbling idiots causing private enterprise trouble, which they did for VW here.

Will people abandon diesel just because the EPA says naughty? Certainly not, in fact I would suggest that it will do to the TDI exactly what VW voluntarily did after 1997 MY when they elected to not bring the tdi back in the B5 platform.

The pricing on cars that remain in the US will be good, because there will be no more and we don't yet know what VW will not buy back either. When quantity of what people want declines prices tend to rise accordingly.

While there are some that suggest the B4 / Mk3 are too old now I would say perhaps, but I would think that in the 'free part(s) of the US' there are some of us who would prefer to maintain the lower tech products simply because the parts are plentiful and low cost and because in the end the manufacturer (or anyone else for that matter) cant track you via your vehicle. (Doubt me? Ford fired a VP for admitting it and Mulally had to back pedal on the statement)

Steve

Lots of good points...
Just if you carry a cell phone, don't worry about your car tracking you...you already have a better tracker with a microphone and a camera on your person....

Low technology stuff that is easily repaired and fixed is important for some....if you have the time to do the labor, it can save $$....but for a many, having an older less reliable vehicle means having more than one, so it can cost extra $$.... sometimes being cheap can cost extra!!

 

[ssamalin]

Mercedes is putting a fortune into clean diesel for MY2018. It already is clean down to 55 degrees ambient temp and I think they're aiming for clean at lower temps with the investment. It can be done. Maybe VW will rethink when they live past dieselgate.

 

[john.jackson9213]

To me, this outcome is entirely predictable. Look how long it took GM to get back in to offering diesel cars after they bungled their reputation on the 350 Olds diesel. And there was no criminal behavior at GM with the Olds diesel.

VW has a huge ethical stain with it's criminal behavior of deliberately violating emission regulations and lying about it. For VW the word "diesel" is simply a scarlet letter they can not escape by making good, clean diesels. They have to run away from diesel in an attempt to recover some of their moral high ground marketing.

As it is, they likely have a team trying to remark all their electric motors with low wattage tags and other games. Look for solar chargers built into their car roofs to stretch their range.

 

[tadawson]

It's not like companies haven't measured product interest by announcing a discontinuation, and listening to see how many scream . . .

 

[pparks1]

VW has a huge ethical stain with it's criminal behavior of deliberately violating emission regulations and lying about it.

Precisely the reason that when I had to replace my TDI, VW wasn't even a consideration.





Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

 

[Scratchy101]

Not only did they lie about it, but they appear to be showing no remorse whatsoever.
Their tactics are to just pay-off or buyback their customers with money.
Totally unethical in my books.

 

[eb2143]

Not only did they lie about it, but they appear to be showing no remorse whatsoever.

+1. VW's attitude throughout makes this decision no surprise to me. I agree with St. Hobbins that there is a tinge of petulance and arrogance even in these remarks.

The messaging/PR and substantive repair aspects of this crisis have been handled poorly--that much is already clear--and I think VW's response will become a classic teaching case of what not to do.

I myself am going to embrace the electrification wave for my next daily driver :roll eyes:

 

[RBTDI]

Well, there goes my stratiegery of a buyback in Sept. 2018, then go out and buy a '18 or '19 Passat TDI.

 

[oilhammer]

Mercedes is putting a fortune into clean diesel for MY2018. It already is clean down to 55 degrees ambient temp and I think they're aiming for clean at lower temps with the investment. It can be done. Maybe VW will rethink when they live past dieselgate.

MB just pulled all the 2017 diesels from their lineup, and I cannot get a straight answer from anyone if that includes Sprinters. The 2016 I ordered 5 months ago (and was told it would take 3 to 4 months to get) seems to have become vaporware, and there is rumors of a new 1.8L supercharged gasoline engine as the base Sprinter engine in addition to the new 2.0L twin turbo diesel that replaces the 2.1L turbo diesel. However I am thinking we will just be getting the 1.8L gasser, and probably a V6 gasser as an option. I sure hope I am wrong. I have zero interest in a gas version, and will likely order a diesel Transit instead, but I really wish I could get some concrete evidence one way or the other.

Volkswagen REALLY screwed diesels up for Americans.

 

[Votblindub]

No worries, we'll just all go out and buy convertible jukes and muranos. Because THAT's the automotive segment that is popular, smart, practical, useful, economical and makes sense.
*rolls eyes*

 

[aja8888]

Well, at the 2016 Fest this weekend (first one for me in 9 years here), there was a Fest group discussion on the impact of Dieselgate to the Club. Some old timers, and the Club has a lot of those (me near the top), remarked, "Ehhh, so what, this too will pass".

The most interesting comment was from a young lad, probably not more than 23 years old and an owner of a TDI who stood up and said, "well, I'm going to get mine fixed, take the money, and then get it unfixed". That's our future club member representative speaking.

Many here don't remember when the Gov wanted to get rid of crazy horsepower back in the "day" (1970's) and the auto companies complied and started putting out "toothless wonders" like a low 200's HP Corvette, 4 cylinder Mustangs, etc. Well, it took a while, but the HP monsters are back. Could be the same will happen with diesels, but it may take a while.

 

[RebelTDI]

I plan on holding onto my Q5 as long as I can. Great machine and for all the power, not much worse mpgs than my X3d. Hopefully, the fix won't affect mpgs or performance too much. With TDIs going away for a while, the existing one's could be highly sought after.

 

[oilhammer]

Well, at the 2016 Fest this weekend (first one for me in 9 years here), there was a Fest group discussion on the impact of Dieselgate to the Club. Some old timers, and the Club has a lot of those (me near the top), remarked, "Ehhh, so what, this too will pass".
The most interesting comment was from a young lad, probably not more than 23 years old and an owner of a TDI who stood up and said, "well, I'm going to get mine fixed, take the money, and then get it unfixed". That's our future club member representative speaking.
Many here don't remember when the Gov wanted to get rid of crazy horsepower back in the "day" (1970's) and the auto companies complied and started putting out "toothless wonders" like a low 200's HP Corvette, 4 cylinder Mustangs, etc. Well, it took a while, but the HP monsters are back. Could be the same will happen with diesels, but it may take a while.

Yep, but those old cars' technology was not very good, the new stuff is much better in that regard. I recently had a Dodge Challenger in here, one a few years old, that was a V6 model. And this is the "old" OHC 3.5L V6.... leftover from the early '90s actually, optional in the first gen LH body (Intrepid, Concorde, etc.). A coworker noted how awful it was to see that engine in that car. But I have to tell you, that car has PLENTY of power. It probably would blow the doors off of any old school 318 cube V8 in an old Challenger or similar. I know it has a heck of a lot more oomph than my 318 Dart did, and it probably weighs more too. The newer Pentastar V6 is even more powerful... I think they are almost 300hp. That is a lot of power. The only thing a V8 is needed in that car for is doing burnouts. Well, they sound neater too.

Consumers are just power hungry, then rarely ever use it. Fact is you can go to any rental place and grab the cheapest, smallest, most miserable little penalty box turd of a car you can get your hands on, and even with its slushbox (or worse, a CVT) you can turn the key, it'll start right up, throw it in "D", and stab the go pedal and inside of 45 seconds be tagging triple digit speeds. That is pretty amazing, IMHO.

 

[jackbombay]

1.8L supercharged gasoline engine as the base Sprinter engine

That would be a huge disappointment at the fuel pump.

I just transported 5,300 pounds of cargo to Alaska with my 2003 sprinter (I had a trailer hooked up along with cargo in the van), and I averaged 20 MPG doing it, that will never happen with a gasser under the hood...

 

[n1das]

Well, at the 2016 Fest this weekend (first one for me in 9 years here), there was a Fest group discussion on the impact of Dieselgate to the Club. Some old timers, and the Club has a lot of those (me near the top), remarked, "Ehhh, so what, this too will pass".
The most interesting comment was from a young lad, probably not more than 23 years old and an owner of a TDI who stood up and said, "well, I'm going to get mine fixed, take the money, and then get it unfixed". That's our future club member representative speaking.
Many here don't remember when the Gov wanted to get rid of crazy horsepower back in the "day" (1970's) and the auto companies complied and started putting out "toothless wonders" like a low 200's HP Corvette, 4 cylinder Mustangs, etc. Well, it took a while, but the HP monsters are back. Could be the same will happen with diesels, but it may take a while.

I was there too and heard that. I think the last part of it was "... and use the money from VW to get it unfixed."

VW not returning with TDIs simply means I won't be returning as a customer. Gassers, gasser-hybrids, and range crippled e-turds are not an option at all with my logging 1k miles/week. Whatever I own and drive HAS to be diesel, first and foremost. I just finished driving 1280 miles to home from TDIfest in my 535d. My first fuel stop was in the middle of Ohio about 550 miles into the trip. I fueled up again near Scranton PA at a truck stop I'm familiar with. I didn't need fuel at the time but it was convenient and is 310 miles from home. I plan on doing my 100 mile/day work commute for the rest of the week on that same tank of fuel. I guess I'm not ready to go electric yet.

Have fun!

 

[aja8888]

I was there too and heard that. I think the last part of it was "... and use the money to get it unfixed."

VW not returning with TDIs simply means I won't be returning as a customer. Gassers, gasser-hybrids, and range crippled e-turds are not an option at all with my logging 1k miles/week. Whatever I own and drive HAS to be diesel, first and foremost. I just finished driving 1280 miles to home from TDIfest in my 535d. My first fuel stop was in the middle of Ohio about 550 miles into the trip. I fueled up again near Scranton PA at a truck stop I'm familiar with. I didn't need fuel at the time but it was convenient and is 310 miles from home. I plan on doing my 100 mile/day work commute for the rest of the week on that same tank of fuel. I guess I'm not ready to go electric yet.

Have fun!

That is one nice BMW diesel you have there!

We took our 2014 Passat TDI SE to the Fest and are averaging 45.7 over the trip (still in north central WI until tomorrow). I am driving the car balls TTW with cruise set at 75 MPH when I can and the A/C on all the time. Now what's out there besides a diesel that can perform this well?

 

[J.R.]

If this is true, they've sadly lost me as a future customer.

A GSW TDI with a manual was going to be my next car

 

[SilverGhost]

I'm going to stand just over here and throw this can of gas on the fire...

20 16 01 - 2044124 Fuel Tank Will Not Take Fuel or is Hard to Fill Completely
Model(s) Year .........Eng. Code..........Trans. Code VIN Range From VIN Range To
Passat 2012–2014..2.0 TDI CKRA......All..............All....................All
Passat 2015..........2.0 TDI CVCA......All..............All....................All
Customer states the fuel tank is hard to fill or will not take fuel.
Production Solution: Improved vent line design and routing starting with model year 2017 Passat TDI production

How many people think that was just a typo of brain fart?

 

[ssamalin]

MB just pulled all the 2017 diesels from their lineup, and I cannot get a straight answer from anyone if that includes Sprinters. The 2016 I ordered 5 months ago (and was told it would take 3 to 4 months to get) seems to have become vaporware, and there is rumors of a new 1.8L supercharged gasoline engine as the base Sprinter engine in addition to the new 2.0L twin turbo diesel that replaces the 2.1L turbo diesel. However I am thinking we will just be getting the 1.8L gasser, and probably a V6 gasser as an option. I sure hope I am wrong. I have zero interest in a gas version, and will likely order a diesel Transit instead, but I really wish I could get some concrete evidence one way or the other.
Volkswagen REALLY screwed diesels up for Americans.

Yes 2017 MB diesels are pulled. But MB is not dropping US diesel for 2018. They are instead upping their investment in clean diesel R&D anticipating I think that EPA/CARB will regulate/test below 55 degrees in 2017/8. There is a lawsuit against MB for alleged emissions lapses but that will go away. MB has no defeater.

 

[pparks1]

That is one nice BMW diesel you have there!
We took our 2014 Passat TDI SE to the Fest and are averaging 45.7 over the trip (still in north central WI until tomorrow). I am driving the car balls TTW with cruise set at 75 MPH when I can and the A/C on all the time. Now what's out there besides a diesel that can perform this well?

There isn't anything else out there which can do it. You either have to give up space in the trunk to do a hybrid, or passenger room and get a very small compact car, or get an e-car and not have range.

 

[rwolff]

Lower volume of future fuel sales will dry up the stations carrying diesel. Can't escape market forces.

Maybe the "small vehicles only" stations carrying diesel might stop carrying it, but even if ALL VW TDIs were taken off the road tomorrow the effect on sales of on-highway diesel would be lost in the statistical noise. Industry "rules of thumb" are that an 18 wheeler gets 6 MPG, and a driver running single covers 10,000 miles per month. That's a LOT of diesel.

 

[ApriliaNut]

Lower volume of future fuel sales will dry up the stations carrying diesel. Can't escape market forces. Charging stations will be more prevalent.

Doubtful.
Too many 18 wheelers and I don't see them going e-turd EVER!!

 

[ApriliaNut]

You know, I visited a local VW dealership to inquire about when the release would be for the remaining TDIs in their inventory. Drove a new 1.4T Jetta which I must say was not bad at all. Salesman said the move for all the Euros in America was to smaller turbocharged cars to make the mandated manufacturer future MPG targets. He owned one himself and said he's getting 35mpg all day on the highway at around 75mph. Don't know if it was a "sell" or not, so can anybody else confirm??

Anyways, VW would be over the moon smart to design and release a 3
cylinder diesel/electric car to the us. Buy the stupid batteries and design from Toyota or whatnot if they have to, but get 'er done!!!

They could take a (feigned) "We're so sorry for what we've done and we're gonna make it up to you big time with this jewel"...

I would think 80-100 mpg would be easily attainable.

It's all in the marketing. Marketing, marketing marketing...

 

[ApriliaNut]

To me, this outcome is entirely predictable. Look how long it took GM to get back in to offering diesel cars after they bungled their reputation on the 350 Olds diesel. And there was no criminal behavior at GM with the Olds diesel.

Err, tell that to those poor suckers who bought them!! I'm sure they thought it was criminal to allow them to be sold in the first place after owning them for a couple of MONTHS only!!

I bet they would've liked to have taken GM and the "engineers" that "designed" that turd to the woodshed!!!