I posted this to Reddit as a reply to some people who were calling for buy-back and saying the EPA deemed the cars "undrivable."
It's kinda rough as I was fuming when I wrote it, but most of it is accurate:
Um, fellas? Did you guys read the same articles? You guys do know the TDI currently pass smog RIGHT NOW?
Let's be clear: They are in cheat mode when they do it, granted.
BUT... All VW has to do is flip the switch to have them run in that mode all of the time.
It's an oversimplified answer, but it's the truth. They don't need to retrofit anything. Again, they can already pass with a software change, no additional hardware needed. The fact that less than two weeks after the announcement, VW already has a plan to fix each car (all 11 million) points to a software solution.
The main issue is the performance, mileage and durability of the cars in question after the software change.
Mileage - As you must be aware of, the TDI perform above the EPA stated figures. People routinely get higher than the stated 36/42 MPG figures.
If VW made the fix and modified the cars back down to the stated EPA figures, how does that effect the value of the car? Sure you won't get that bonus 55 MPG anymore, but you really shouldn't have expected that in the first place, and should be grateful they spotted you that bonus.
They could flash the new software, force everyone back down to the EPA figures of 32/42 and claim they "fixed the problem with no adverse effect on the mileage". AND THEY'D BE TELLING THE TRUTH. And you expect them to buy it back because it STILL MEETS THE PROMISED FIGURES? The figures that existed at the time of your purchase? Good luck with that, asking a judge to award you for benefiting from illegal activity. It's like getting angry because you can no longer steal booze from the store because they locked it up now. WAT?
Durability - yes VW's have turbo issues. They extended the warranties on these. They'll do the same for the DPF's too. It is a WEAR item anyway - all filters have to be replaced. Be thankful for the goodwill gesture if they extend the warranty. This is a given. I believe VW only did this cheat in order to lessen the need to replace the DPFs when they eventually clog.
Performance - this is a gray area. How do you compensate owners of economy cars for loss of performance? If HP drops from 140 to 130, that's an 8% drop in performance. Was high 0-60 times ever a focus of TDIs to begin with? Another tough area to argue. Maybe you'll get a check cut to you. 8% of a 24,000 car is less than $2,000 and less than $4,000 on a $34,000 car. And that is if they base it on MSRP (all cars depreciate, BTW).
Did VW screw up? YES. Is this a black eye for diesels everywhere? YES. Will they buy back your car? NO. Is your car un-drivable right now? NO.