The way it's looking now:
A1. CA only: Keep TDIs on the road with no modification: 45%
A2. Force some TDIs to be retrofitted to comply with modified or existing rules: 15%
A3. Force all TDIs to be retrofitted to comply with modified or existing rules: 20%
A4. Force TDIs off the road completely: 20%
B1. Aggregate US govt. penalties assessed to VW <= $500,000,000: 10%
B2. Penalties > $500,000,000 <= $2,000,000,000: 35%
B3. Penalties > $2,000,000,000: 55%
C1. VW of America continues as a viable automobile brand thru 2021: 70%
C2. VW of America ceases to exist between now and 2021: 30%
D1. VWAG continues as a viable automobile brand thru 2021: 95%
D2. VWAG ceases to exist between now and 2021: 5%
E1. VW offers no buyback of TDIs in US: 20%
E2. VW offers buyback of selected TDIs in US: 35%
E3. VW offers buyback of all TDIs in US: 45%
F1. All buyback offers at adjusted blue book value or below: 55%
F2. All buyback offers above adjusted blue book but below adjusted MSRP: 15%
F3. Some buyback offers at adjusted MSRP or higher value: 15%
F4. All buyback offers at adjusted MSRP or higher value: 15%
G1. There will be a criminal prosecution of one or more VW employees in the US, related to the cheating scandal : 25%
G2. There will be no criminal prosecution: 75%
H1. Aggregate value of US class action cases settled by end of 2018 <= $1,000,000,000: 60%
H2. Aggregate value > $1,000,000,000: 40%