U.S. Comeback?

nicklockard

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Diesel and electric transportation.

Is there a 'fight' between them? Reality or our own false dichotomy?

Thank you. Not everything is so black & white. So tired of being pushed into corners of false dichotomies myself. Let's just pick the best we can, even if it's a mish-mash of different ideas.
 

Emkura

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Seems to be 2 different topics: Diesel in the USA and VW diesels in the USA.

Diesel will be in the U.S. for a very long time. I’m of the opinion, however, that VW will never have a diesel to sell in the U.S. again. To further the point, I think VW will need a bailout IOT to avoid implosion. Just my 2 cents.
Just saw a girl doing a trip from Phoenix to LA in a Tesla and it took her 9 hrs vs. 5 hrs in a regular car.

Once this electric and lithium craze iz over, we’ll be begging for diesels. All over the world diesels rule but we in the USA are somehow special and know better?
 

turbobrick240

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Just saw a girl doing a trip from Phoenix to LA in a Tesla and it took her 9 hrs vs. 5 hrs in a regular car.

Once this electric and lithium craze iz over, we’ll be begging for diesels. All over the world diesels rule but we in the USA are somehow special and know better?
Maybe. Diesel was king in Europe for quite a few years. It recently gave back that crown first to gasoline and then to electric passenger vehicles.
 

nwdiver

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Just saw a girl doing a trip from Phoenix to LA in a Tesla and it took her 9 hrs vs. 5 hrs in a regular car.

Once this electric and lithium craze iz over, we’ll be begging for diesels. All over the world diesels rule but we in the USA are somehow special and know better?
??? That trip requires < 20 minutes of charging. What was she doing for the other 3 hours and 40 minutes?

And... you realize it's the other way 'round right? Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, The Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Portugal, UK, Belgium, France, Ireland, Romania, China, Italy, Spain and New Zealand all sell a higher percentage of EVs than the US. Norway is now 86% EV vs 4% in the US.
 

showdown 42

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EVs will find a place in US in urban areas and suburbs as a second car. I might get one in a few years when they get their act together. Maybe be another battery system that is better and cheaper.
Better hope the roll out takes a lot of time or we will have implosion to the infrastructure system.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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Maybe. Diesel was king in Europe for quite a few years. It recently gave back that crown first to gasoline and then to electric passenger vehicles.
Pretty sure their definition of "electric" includes hybrids, so ICE is still alive and well. The big complaint in many parts of Europe now is that charging station growth hasn't kept up. People are going to charge and finding stations with no available chargers. That, along with other limitations of pure EVs are driving a lot of Europeans to plug-in hybrids. Best of both worlds: EV for short trips and to avoid center city emissions charges, and ICE for longer drives.
 

turbobrick240

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Pretty sure their definition of "electric" includes hybrids, so ICE is still alive and well. The big complaint in many parts of Europe now is that charging station growth hasn't kept up. People are going to charge and finding stations with no available chargers. That, along with other limitations of pure EVs are driving a lot of Europeans to plug-in hybrids. Best of both worlds: EV for short trips and to avoid center city emissions charges, and ICE for longer drives.
Nope, pure battery electric overtook diesel sales in Europe this year. And that was before the mess in Ukraine kicked off. Considering how many diesel passenger cars used to be made in Europe, I'd say the odds of them returning here are slim to slimmer.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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I guess that shows people will buy what the government helps them buy.

I wonder what the next quarter's relative sales numbers will look like. Seems that the quarter where EVs beat diesels (by 1%) may have been boosted by Tesla delivering a backlog of vehicles.
 

nwdiver

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Wasn’t the reason TDIs became popular because they offered a lower cost per mile even if there was an upfront premium over less efficient cars? Would it not stand to reason that a ‘come back’ won’t happen until this is true again?

My old TDI would cost me >6x more per mile over my current car. That’s nuts.
 

tikal

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EVs will find a place in US in urban areas and suburbs as a second car. I might get one in a few years when they get their act together. Maybe be another battery system that is better and cheaper.
Better hope the roll out takes a lot of time or we will have implosion to the infrastructure system.
Excellent points!

In the rest of our lifes we do not do "one size fits all".

Same common sense applies here.

I do not expect a "US comeback of new TDIs". I do expect TDI owners that are environmentally councious to make sure their fuel efficient vehicles operate safely as long as feasible.

How about this kind of 'comback' 😄!
 

turbobrick240

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I guess that shows people will buy what the government helps them buy.

I wonder what the next quarter's relative sales numbers will look like. Seems that the quarter where EVs beat diesels (by 1%) may have been boosted by Tesla delivering a backlog of vehicles.
Tesla's exports to Europe can be pretty lumpy. More on a monthly basis than a quarterly basis. That should flatten out into a steadier upward trajectory as the Berlin factory ramps into production and Shanghai expands further. I think Q2 sales of ICEV in Europe will probably plummet with the energy uncertainty resulting from Russia's invasion. EVs could take a hit too from supply issues in China.
 

Mirrorman

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Relax, nobody is forcing you to buy an EV.
I think when many people hear the anti-EV disinformation parroted around enough in the media, they begin to absorb the lies as truths. Maybe they fear the changes that the future brings and want to believe the lies. Recent world events have made it even more clear to me that supporting regimes like Putin's with my income is entirely undesirable. There are enormous social costs associated with fossil fuels on top of the environmental costs.
The environmental impact of electric battery production and disposal is absolutely ridiculous, even compared to fossil fuel production.

I go back to the point that there’s a reason we went to gasoline and Diesel engines after making electric cars 200 years ago, they weren’t that practical then, they aren’t that much more practical for the average American now.
 

nwdiver

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The environmental impact of electric battery production and disposal is absolutely ridiculous, even compared to fossil fuel production.

I go back to the point that there’s a reason we went to gasoline and Diesel engines after making electric cars 200 years ago, they weren’t that practical then, they aren’t that much more practical for the average American now.
The manufacturing of an EV vs ICE is roughly equivalent to the refining and burning of ~700 gallons of diesel. You’d need to drive an EV ~80,000 miles to break even. What car lasts that long? ;)

Reason would argue that the environmental impact of extracting, refining and burning liquid hydrocarbons is even more ridiculous. And >90% of batteries will go into another battery. What percentage of a gallon of diesel goes into more diesel?

EVs faded because it was ~impossible to convert DC to AC. Which is really what you need for a powerful and efficient motor. We cracked that nut ~30 years ago. Just took another couple decades to get the cost and size down.
 

turbobrick240

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The envir

The environmental impact of electric battery production and disposal is absolutely ridiculous, even compared to fossil fuel production.

I go back to the point that there’s a reason we went to gasoline and Diesel engines after making electric cars 200 years ago, they weren’t that practical then, they aren’t that much more practical for the average American now.
Gasoline cars displaced electric cars 100 years ago, not 200. The average American will be driving an EV sooner than you think. I think of how many older folk were quite resistant to cell phones initially. That reluctance evaporated quickly as cell phones became ubiquitous. How many adults do you know that don't own a cell phone today? A similar story will play out with EVs.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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Gasoline cars displaced electric cars 100 years ago, not 200. The average American will be driving an EV sooner than you think. I think of how many older folk were quite resistant to cell phones initially. That reluctance evaporated quickly as cell phones became ubiquitous. How many adults do you know that don't own a cell phone today? A similar story will play out with EVs.
That's a nice story, but irrelevant. There are all kinds of examples of people's adoption of new things, including technology. Fax machines, ovenight mail, cable television, jet airline travel...one could go on. Whether or not people switch to EVs depends on many things that we've discussed here, not just people's resistance to change. Will higher fuel prices help accelerate the change? Maybe. If EV costs accelerate as fast or faster, then no. If not, yes.

 
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showdown 42

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Just remember your EV battery is 1/2 of the value of the car and will die in about 10yrs. replacing it or dumping it will be a real issue from an economic basis. Talk about planned obsolescence. You won't see many 20yr old EVs on the road. EV resales are a straight line down to zero over about 15 yrs. We haven't seen that yet because the market is so new,but we will.
 

turbobrick240

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That's a nice story, but irrelevant. There are all kinds of examples of people's adoption of new things, including technology. Fax machines, ovenight mail, cable television, jet airline travel...one could go on. Whether or not people switch to EVs depends on many things that we've discussed here, not just people's resistance to change. Will higher fuel prices help accelerate the change? Maybe. If EV costs accelerate as fast or faster, then no. If not, yes.

It's not irrelevant. Disruptive technology is real. I don't expect the EV revolution to unfold as quickly as the cell phone revolution, but it is underway. I have to recharge my smartphone every day. Never had to do that with our old rotary phone. Not going back.
 

nwdiver

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Just remember your EV battery is 1/2 of the value of the car and will die in about 10yrs. replacing it or dumping it will be a real issue from an economic basis. Talk about planned obsolescence. You won't see many 20yr old EVs on the road. EV resales are a straight line down to zero over about 15 yrs. We haven't seen that yet because the market is so new,but we will.
I remember some people telling me I’d need a new battery in 4 years 9 years ago. Still going strong. You don’t think batteries made today will last longer than those made 10 years ago? LiFePo batteries can last >5000 cycles. That’s ~1M miles. How many years do you think that would be?
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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It's not irrelevant. Disruptive technology is real. I don't expect the EV revolution to unfold as quickly as the cell phone revolution, but it is underway. I have to recharge my smartphone every day. Never had to do that with our old rotary phone. Not going back.
I said it was irrelevant because I don't think you can compare the transition from land line to cell phone to transition from ICE to EV. Telecommunications purchases are a much smaller portion of any household's budget, and I don't think anyone ever has had the romantic attachment to a land line phone that people have to their cars. Nor did the transition to cell phone require the level of behavior change that going from ICE to EV requires. Unlike other types of disruptive tech like cell phones (or transition to the internet for many activities), EVs require a major purchase of (in the eyes of some buyers) an unproven technology. No one is going to consider an EV purchase as something they can throw out if it fails, which they may have done with a cell phone.

And now that I think about it, I got my first cell phone in 1987. It's only in the last few years that some people have abandoned land lines altogether. So that took 30 years or so.
 

turbobrick240

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I said it was irrelevant because I don't think you can compare the transition from land line to cell phone to transition from ICE to EV. Telecommunications purchases are a much smaller portion of any household's budget, and I don't think anyone ever has had the romantic attachment to a land line phone that people have to their cars. Nor did the transition to cell phone require the level of behavior change that going from ICE to EV requires. Unlike other types of disruptive tech like cell phones (or transition to the internet for many activities), EVs require a major purchase of (in the eyes of some buyers) an unproven technology. No one is going to consider an EV purchase as something they can throw out if it fails, which they may have done with a cell phone.

And now that I think about it, I got my first cell phone in 1987. It's only in the last few years that some people have abandoned land lines altogether. So that took 30 years or so.
I absolutely agree that autos are a much bigger slice of people's budgets than communications. That's why I expect a slower adoption for EVs than cell phones. You were an early cell phone adopter in '87. The mainstream transition happened mostly between '95-'10. Here's an interesting graph showing adoption of various technologies:
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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That article is probably correct, and there are a lot of reasons why adoption has accelerated. The extent that we're connected as a culture is a big part of it. Think of how long it would have taken to have (a) heard of; (b) seen and used; (c) purchased; and (d) had installed (along with the supporting infrastructure) a telephone compared to the awareness, and distribution of smart phones. Decades versus months.

But I disagree on the automotive life cycle example. What's a life cycle? The appearance? Features? Platform? If it's platform, it's more like 4-6 years. Example: MKVI Golf, launched in 2010. MK7: 2015; MK8: 2022. Honda, who has been recognized for quick life cycles, introduced the 9th gen civic in 2012, 10th in 2016, 11th in 2022.

I'm old enough to remember when American cars were restyled annually. But they certainly weren't new.
 

kjclow

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Many of those restyles were just a rebending of the sheet metal. Most things underneath were the same. If you want to look at disruptive technology, look at VHS. The main reason VHS players and tapes took off so quickly was because Panasonic gave the patent to Samsung to flood the market at a cheap price. Musk isn't doing that!
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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Actually he is, in a way. He's taken advantage of significant tax breaks and incentives over the years that have affected his production costs. And for early years of production customers received a $7,500 federal rebate, along with rebates or credits from a number of states. So early adopters weren't actually paying a price that fully reflected the cost of R&D and production.
 

Huracan

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It's sad to see diesel passenger cars and diesel SUVs dying slowly in USA. I thoroughly enjoyed my two Diesel Jettas. I still have two MB diesel vehicles, and one VW Golf EV. I think Diesel is a great option, and not as bad for the environment overall. However, the way things are going I doubt we'll ever see a comeback of Diesel passenger vehicles in the US, or even Europe in the long term. I'll enjoy my vehicles while they last and then will have to adapt to whatever is in the market when I'll be looking into my new vehicle. I thoroughly enjoyed this site. I was very active in the past. I recently bumped into a Jetta TDI owner outside a local supermarket. Made me think about the good old times. I think Diesel has been demonized excessively, particularly the newer generation Diesel engines. My latest Jetta never had any soot in the tailpipe, never had the Diesel smell or smoke coming out of the tailpipe. Great performance. The DSG was great. Great car until an idiot run a red light and totaled it.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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Actually, with the exception of the Tahoe/Suburban/Yukon/Escalade (all the same vehicle, really) diesel passenger vehicles are dead in NA. At least for now. I doubt we'll see diesels in small cars again: It's hard to sell the cost of the emissions systems in an inexpensive vehicle and the FE of current gasoline engines is close to diesel territory.

However, I think it's possible we'll see diesels again in large SUVs. Land Rover introduced a new diesel a couple years ago, indicating they're alive and well in Europe. The performance and FE of the new Range Rover diesel is impressive. And I think rising fuel prices may encourage a transition back to diesel in some applications. Not every need can be met with an EV.

 

tikal

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Interesting, the percentage efficiency improvement is the same (22%) for city and highway:


I would think hwy would be larger value vs city.
 

kjclow

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Actually, with the exception of the Tahoe/Suburban/Yukon/Escalade (all the same vehicle, really) diesel passenger vehicles are dead in NA. At least for now. I doubt we'll see diesels in small cars again: It's hard to sell the cost of the emissions systems in an inexpensive vehicle and the FE of current gasoline engines is close to diesel territory.

However, I think it's possible we'll see diesels again in large SUVs. Land Rover introduced a new diesel a couple years ago, indicating they're alive and well in Europe. The performance and FE of the new Range Rover diesel is impressive. And I think rising fuel prices may encourage a transition back to diesel in some applications. Not every need can be met with an EV.

FCA is spreading the 3 liter diesel across the Jeep line too.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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I guess the Wrangler is a passenger vehicle, albeit not a very refined one. I'm not sure what I'd call the Gladiator, although neither is anyone else.

I'll be interested to see if the diesel makes its way into the latest Grand Cherokee platform. I doubt it.
 

kjclow

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They talked about offering it in both the Cherokee and the new Wagoneer but nothing shows up on line yet. I agree with your comment on the Gladiator. I've been thinking about one but have realized I'd be giving up a lot of room and comfort if I traded in the Ram.
 
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