U.S. Comeback?

[turbobrick240]

I live in CA.....They are forcing it 2035.......DONE

That should give you plenty of time to adjust. Getting angry about it today is only hurting yourself.

 

[farnhamassoc]

what about blue crude......I think the world will realize the stuff i am saying is true. Just like a heavily forecasted in 2005 the real-estate crash. Not upset I will probably be dead......But just throwing caution. There are some serious issues with everything electric.....
#1 it is not mobile.
2 you cannot transport it.
All you need to do is knock out some switching stations and you have control over people and they have no way to fix it without readily available fuel and service vehicles to fix it.
NO FOOD ON THE SHELVES if the trucks are electric....This is not conspiracy it is potentiality
Serious world wide security threat for terrorism.
You cant do that with fuel there is so many recourses to get fuel and have fuel it is portable and separate. storable.

All unlike electric power

There needs to be fuel gas or diesel everywhere or these threats will become reality mark my words. I told everyone to duck and run for cover and people laughed at me in 2005......All lost their houses.

Nobody ever said one size fits all. Most people get that. I still own 2 CR tdis. I'll keep one but sell the other. TDI for long trips and towing, my 2018 E-golf I'm looking to buy soon will be daily commute. Best thing I get to leave it plugged in at work and charge for free. Even then if I have to charge at home it will cost me $2.50 USD from 0-100% for 125 miles.

90% of people that commute live within 20-25 miles of A City. Fact. Yes it's an average as different cities span different sizes.
We aren't just talking about California.

Europe is now phasing out diesels in general along with other countries, manufacturers have reached a point where they see no point in investing in a dying technology. Emissions standards are getting ever more strict, instead of always trying to find solutions to a problem, you eliminate the problem.
13 years in automotive industry is a lifetime.
The change is coming whether you like it or not.

e

 

[wxman]

.....They clearly from manufacturing to demolition cause less pollution....

Not necessarily...

Regional Emissions Analysis of Light-Duty Battery Electric Vehicles

Light-duty battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can reduce both greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CAPs) emissions, when compared to gasoline vehicles. However, research has found that while today’s BEVs typically reduce GHGs, they can increase certain CAPs, though with significant...

www.mdpi.com

...AND when it comes to Long Haul TRUCKS....HEAVY WEIGHT........NO not even. Bad IDEA!!!!!! and HUGE security risk. One power outage and NO FOOD.....

Agree. Even from an environmental perspective they don't at this time...

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.0c02931

 

[kjclow]

Yes, emissions from the electrical generation source will be different depending on where you live. My wife and I were discussing this very thing last night. The majority of our power comes from two nuke plants on either end of Charlotte. Initial back up in two coal fired plants. If that's not enough, there are also two hydro plants. Using the hydro plants brings it's own unique issues as they control the lake levels that the nukes depend on for cooling water.

 

[RayF]

Seems to be 2 different topics: Diesel in the USA and VW diesels in the USA.

Diesel will be in the U.S. for a very long time. I’m of the opinion, however, that VW will never have a diesel to sell in the U.S. again. To further the point, I think VW will need a bailout IOT to avoid implosion. Just my 2 cents.

 

[quartersaw]

what about blue crude......I think the world will realize the stuff i am saying is true. Just like a heavily forecasted in 2005 the real-estate crash. Not upset I will probably be dead......But just throwing caution. There are some serious issues with everything electric.....
#1 it is not mobile.
2 you cannot transport it.
All you need to do is knock out some switching stations and you have control over people and they have no way to fix it without readily available fuel and service vehicles to fix it.
NO FOOD ON THE SHELVES if the trucks are electric....This is not conspiracy it is potentiality
Serious world wide security threat for terrorism.
You cant do that with fuel there is so many recourses to get fuel and have fuel it is portable and separate. storable.

All unlike electric power

There needs to be fuel gas or diesel everywhere or these threats will become reality mark my words. I told everyone to duck and run for cover and people laughed at me in 2005......All lost their houses.


e

I really bristle, at reductionist, backward thinking. Imagine if the Wright Bros. said: "Forget this Flying Machine Idea". "It will never work". What the F happened to Americans? We are made of better stuff, than this.....

 

[RayF]

You obviously didn't have a clue about VW do you? Obviously I'd put that down to being a new member and ignorant.

VW didn't need a bailout (unlike GM or Chrysler) and I'll say didn't because that was 7 years ago and vw has turned profits since.
VW has a bigger market outside north America anyway.

LOL. A little rude. I’m new to your forum, but I’m not new to life. They've recently reported that they’ve virtually turned no profit in the Americas for YEARS.

They’re the #2 seller of cars by volume. Not profit. The past decade of bad decisions has taken its toll. I stand by my words. Wait for the Q3 report.

 

[RayF]

Your a new member who comes onto a forum just to spread disinformation and I'm the rude one? Your first two posts aren't even in the " hello, I'm new here" thread or "I need help with my tdi" but straight to the VW bashing. Nobody cares about Q reports, this is a forum for people for anyone who WANTS to help people repair, modify and improve their tdis and other vehicles.
Put your big boy pants on, your on a public forum. Your opinions are like farts, just because you don't mind your own, doesn't mean everyone else does.

LOL. You’re an angry little elf.

Please point out the “Repair, modify and improve section of this thread. Hint: The thread is titled “US Comeback” and its in the “News/Tech Forum. The only thing here broken is your keyboard warrior attitude.

For the adults in the room (that aren’t looking for the torque spec or wiring diagram in the future of diesel) thread, VW is currently $250 BILLION in the hole. They’ve been forced into the EV market. It wasn’t a choice. Europe never stopped finding things to fine them on, so they continue to drown.

So VW’s plan is is to axe the majority of their models and concentrate on spending $52 billion on their EV project, which they advertise as being available in….wait for it….2030. Musk will be up and running in Europe this year.

So lets review. VW is already struggling with profit. They’re going to cut their sales and go deeper into profit for a model that won’t be available for 8 years. And….in accordance with the actual OPs topic,…..this makes them finished with diesel in the US.

I’ve attached a European article as a reference. You don’t have to be angry or know it all to read it:

Current events for angry know-it-alls

 

[RayF]

Being the bigger man and a not responding to that mountain of garbage you just puked out, why are you on this forum?

Really? You accuse me of being ignorant. You accuse me of spreading disinformation. You accuse me of bashing VW. Not one single bit of it is true, BTW, but you’re the bigger man? You’re nothing more than the first one on my ignore list….

….and you don’t deserve the satisfaction of knowing any more than that.

I’d like to apologize to everyone else, however, as I never thought that adding fact-based opinions on this topic would result drawing out such a miserable, derailing response from a supposedly seasoned member. I’ll let the next few months and years speak to how misplaced my input was.

 

[nicklockard]

Our topic has drifted quite far into some back and forth attacking. I really don't want to have to lock a thread on this topic, but will if it keeps going astray. Find a way to get back to relevant material please.

 

[tomo366]

Just delete the offending posts no problem…

 

[kjclow]

I think the thread has drifted more towards if VWAG will make a comeback in the North American market. However, with the Audi and Porsche brands, they never really left. The VW brand has shifted into a selection of "which size SUV fits you best". No longer the "People's Car" but the soccer mom's dream.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

But their luxury brands are doing very well. I see Audis all over the place here, and quite a few Macans and Caymans. Not so many 911s however.

 

[shoebear]

...parts sales for ALH and BEW cars have been essentially level for the past 10 years... If there's nothing out there to replace the buyback cars people are driving I suspect they'll be around for a while.

My 2003 Jetta TDi hit 350K miles yesterday morning, and I hope to see another 150K *at least*. BTW, the idparts ceramic brake pads I have just won't quit. Thanks!

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

BTW, the idparts ceramic brake pads I have just won't quit. Thanks!

I use those myself. They are good. Got 150K out of my last set of rear pads.

 

[mchapek]

I'm really surprised that the BIG OIL companies haven't gone all-in on Bio-Diesel manufacturing....one of the bigger drawbacks of all petroleum fueled engines is the carbon dioxide emissions (the CO2 that is being released was locked up millions of years ago by the algae/plants, and then was turned into oil by time/pressure). BD eliminates that as the CO2 it releases when burned is recycled...you grow something (corn, green algae, whatever) which removes CO2 from the atmosphere), squish it and refine it to make the BD, burn it and it simply puts back the same carbon it took out of the air....so there is no NEW to this environment CO2 (which is pretty undisputed as a greenhouse gas speeding climate change...just think of how much oil is burned every day on the planet...that's a LOT of new CO2). Being as everybody agrees that the big diesel trucks (and ships/trains/planes, all using some variation of diesel) aren't going anywhere anytime soon...what would replace them?)...having BD available in large quantities would be HUGE in slowing greenhouse gas emissions world-wide. Considering that a diesel engine will burn pretty much ANY oil (it will even burn it's own engine oil if there is a blown head-gasket), BD just makes sense.

There have been tons of studies on Green Algae BD...anybody who has had an aquarium knows how easy it is to grow green algae. All you need is water, nutrients, and sun (keeping it simple, obviously there is a bit more to it)....I saw (on the internet) one site in a desert environment (ie, cheap land!) where they made these huge clear-vinyl hanging-radiator-type things...they just hang from a large post-setup, hook up water piping to the top and bottom, put a whole bunch of them on a single system (closed loop so the water isn't evaporating), supply a nutrient (algae isn't too picky...fish poop works fine), and circulate the water...bam...green algae grows...seperate the algae out, squish it for it's blob of oil, use the remains to power your system (burn it to make electricity to power the water pumps)...think of all the nearly useless land on the planet there is to do this! Just import your water, setup the hanging radiators (by the thousands or more), and start growing tons of green algae. Obviously there's more to it than that, but with the prices of gas/diesel lately, I'd think it could be money making item. Just think if most of the petroleum diesel could be replaced with BD on the planet, that would be HUGE....AND it would keep diesel engines alive for generations to come...just my 2 cents.

 

[Lightflyer1]

I have been watching Joule Unlimited for at least 10 years now hoping. They don't seem to be making any commercial progress. They have/had a plant in Leander near me. Even expanded to a test plant in West Texas or that area.

 

[nwdiver]

All you need is water, nutrients, and sun (keeping it simple, obviously there is a bit more to it)....I saw (on the internet) one site in a desert environment (ie, cheap land!) where they made these huge clear-vinyl hanging-radiator-type things...they just hang from a large post-setup, hook up water piping to the top and bottom, put a whole bunch of them on a single system (closed loop so the water isn't evaporating), supply a nutrient (algae isn't too picky...fish poop works fine), and circulate the water...bam...green algae grows...seperate the algae out, squish it for it's blob of oil, use the remains to power your system (burn it to make electricity to power the water pumps)...think of all the nearly useless land on the planet there is to do this! Just import your water, setup the hanging radiators (by the thousands or more), and start growing tons of green algae. Obviously there's more to it than that, but with the prices of gas/diesel lately, I'd think it could be money making item. Just think if most of the petroleum diesel could be replaced with BD on the planet, that would be HUGE....AND it would keep diesel engines alive for generations to come...just my 2 cents.

As @Lightflyer1 mentioned we tried that... it doesn't work. Biofuel just isn't economically viable or scalable. The math doesn't work. Trains should be electrified, shift more freight to them and there's no reason 'last mile delivery' can't be battery powered. Tesla is already running electric Semi-trucks between the Gigafactory in Nevada and California. Anything going >500 miles should be on rails and anything <500 miles can be battery.

For ships everyone seems really keen on building SMRs. A 50MW reactor or two would be perfect for a cargo ship.

 

[wxman]

As @Lightflyer1 mentioned we tried that... it doesn't work. Biofuel just isn't economically viable or scalable. The math doesn't work. Trains should be electrified, shift more freight to them and there's no reason 'last mile delivery' can't be battery powered. Tesla is already running electric Semi-trucks between the Gigafactory in Nevada and California. Anything going >500 miles should be on rails and anything <500 miles can be battery.

For ships everyone seems really keen on building SMRs. A 50MW reactor or two would be perfect for a cargo ship.

While I agree that long-distance freight should be moved to rail, I still disagree on the biofuels issue.

There's not only a very significant supply of biomass sustainably available, there is a very urgent need for a market for much of it. The most important reason why wildfires are becoming increasingly hard to control is the tremendous fuel loadings that are accumulating in forested areas. These areas need to be significantly thinned, as much as 90% biomass removal, before prescribed burns can safely be conducted. See, e.g., https://www.redrockbio.com/

Waste biomass could account for nearly 600,000,000 dry tons/year by 2025 per DOE's "Billion Ton Study." If all of this biomass was hypothetically used as feedstock for biomass-based diesel fuel, ~60 billion gallons could be made per year, based on current yields ( https://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/05/20180504-velocys.html ). The cost would be about $3.50/gallon at most based on EPA's analysis adjusted for inflation ("Renewable Fuel Standard Program - (RFS2) Regulatory Impact Analysis," Table 4.1-44, page 769). This is the cost with full state and federal fuel taxes added.

 

[nwdiver]

While I agree that long-distance freight should be moved to rail, I still disagree on the biofuels issue.

There's not only a very significant supply of biomass sustainably available, there is a very urgent need for a market for much of it. The most important reason why wildfires are becoming increasingly hard to control is the tremendous fuel loadings that are accumulating in forested areas. These areas need to be significantly thinned, as much as 90% biomass removal, before prescribed burns can safely be conducted. See, e.g., https://www.redrockbio.com/

Waste biomass could account for nearly 600,000,000 dry tons/year by 2025 per DOE's "Billion Ton Study." If all of this biomass was hypothetically used as feedstock for biomass-based diesel fuel, ~60 billion gallons could be made per year, based on current yields ( https://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/05/20180504-velocys.html ). The cost would be about $3.50/gallon at most based on EPA's analysis adjusted for inflation ("Renewable Fuel Standard Program - (RFS2) Regulatory Impact Analysis," Table 4.1-44, page 769). This is the cost with full state and federal fuel taxes added.

We're already using dry biomass to burn as fuel for thermal electric generation. LIQUID biofuels don't make economic sense. Why spend ~$0.09/kWh to convert dry biomass to a liquid to get 1 mile worth of fuel for ICE when you can just burn it in a thermal plant for ~$0.02/kWh and get ~3 miles worth of fuel for an EV? >10x more per $ invested.

Also.... aviation needs ground liquid fuel A LOT more than ground transport does...

 

[wxman]

Aviation uses about 25B gallons/year of jet fuel. There's plenty more available for ground transportation (at least 35B gallons).

The biomass fuels can be produced for less than $3.50/gallon, which is now much less than petroleum-based fuels, either diesel or gasoline.

Where did you get those cost factors in your post?

 

[nwdiver]

Aviation uses about 25B gallons/year of jet fuel. There's plenty more available for ground transportation (at least 35B gallons).

The biomass fuels can be produced for less than $3.50/gallon, which is now much less than petroleum-based fuels, either diesel or gasoline.

Where did you get those cost factors in your post?

The costs are based on what you provided $3.50/gal = $0.09/kWh (37kWh/gal) and the cost of thermal generation is ~$20/MWh or $0.02/kWh. ~$20/MWh is the O&M cost of running a thermal plant. Great thing about thermal plants is a lot of them already exist. A coal plant doesn't much care whether it's wood chips or coal. Some modifications are required but nothing too expensive.

So..... what's the holdup? If this can be done why is it not being done? Burning biomass for electricity IS being done.

 

[kjclow]

Aviation uses about 25B gallons/year of jet fuel. There's plenty more available for ground transportation (at least 35B gallons).

The biomass fuels can be produced for less than $3.50/gallon, which is now much less than petroleum-based fuels, either diesel or gasoline.

Where did you get those cost factors in your post?

Is that $3.50 the cost of producing the fuel or the estimated price at the pump? A production cost of $3.50 would not include transportation or taxes. That would mean that it has only become a viable alternative in the last few months.

 

[wxman]

Is that $3.50 the cost of producing the fuel or the estimated price at the pump? A production cost of $3.50 would not include transportation or taxes. That would mean that it has only become a viable alternative in the last few months.

Cost includes distribution and current state (average) and federal taxes on diesel fuel. Of course, any tax break for biomass-based diesel fuel would be that much less.

The EPA analysis is based on a 50,000,000 gallon/year processing facility (33,200,000 gal/year biomass-based diesel fuel).

 

[wxman]

The costs are based on what you provided $3.50/gal = $0.09/kWh (37kWh/gal) and the cost of thermal generation is ~$20/MWh or $0.02/kWh. ~$20/MWh is the O&M cost of running a thermal plant. Great thing about thermal plants is a lot of them already exist. A coal plant doesn't much care whether it's wood chips or coal. Some modifications are required but nothing too expensive.

So..... what's the holdup? If this can be done why is it not being done? Burning biomass for electricity IS being done.

The $3.50/gallon includes distribution costs and fuel taxes. Does that $0.02/kWh include distribution and taxes? If it does, why do residential consumers pay 6x or more than that? Why is the cost at public EV chargers as much as $0.43/kWh (Electrify America)?

Biomass-based fuels are being produced at increasing levels and are projected to continue...

Forest wastes are now being processed into jet/diesel fuel commercially - https://www.redrockbio.com/

There are others that are not producing commercially yet, but are being built:

Fulcrum BioEnergy

Negative-emission fuel agreement - Velocys

Velocys’ Bayou Fuels project set to produce negative emission fuels after signing CCUS agreement with Oxy Low Carbon Ventures. Velocys, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Velocys plc (Velocys), announced today it has signed an agreement with Oxy Low Carbon Ventures, LLC (OLCV), to capture carbon...

www.velocys.com

Strategic Biofuels Achieves Major Project Milestone Towards World’s First Carbon Negative Renewable Diesel Plant

Strategic Biofuels achieves major project milestone in Louisiana towards world’s first carbon negative renewable diesel plant

www.businesswire.com

 

[nwdiver]

Forest wastes are now being processed into jet/diesel fuel commercially - https://www.redrockbio.com/

It would be interesting to see what their costs are. With all the discussion of displacing Russian oil I haven't heard this mentioned at all. Europe has a lot of biomass and a diesel shortage since they relied heavily on Russia for diesel. If anything deserves to be part of a defense production act right now it's this.

 

[atc98002]

Remember that a nickel increase in the price of jet fuel will cost an airline multi-millions of dollars in a year, simply because they use so much of it. Although the cost per seat mile on something like a B737 is still much better than almost any other method of travel. But in aviation, fuel cost is the single largest expense they have, with the possible exception of wages for their flight and cabin crews. Right now SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) has a cost of more than $1 per gallon more than Jet-A. It's great to think that aviation can go with a green fuel, but it's still not financially viable without some sort of government subsidies somewhere in the chain.

 

[pkhoury]

I'm with Fixmy59bug. Diesel is far from dead and not going to go away tomorrow.

My next vehicle likely will be a diesel pickup truck to be able to get a diesel vehicle. I'm becoming more of a truck guy too. I wish I had kept the 08 Ford F-350 SuperDuty 6.4L PowerStroke Diesel pickup truck I owned several years ago.

Except that those are known as throwaway motors. I have a 7.3L myself, but I maybe use it 1000 miles a year now? (Needs changed).

While my BMW diesels are long term keepers, I miss that truck and wish I had kept it. I didn't think I would miss it as much as I do when I sold it. At the time it was hard to justify owning 3 vehicles when I am the only driver of them. I will probably have another diesel pickup truck again in the future.

To each their own. I own four running TDIs and my 1995 F-450, and those are just for me. There are three other working TDIs in the household.

Whatever I own and drive absolutely HAS to be DIESEL powered. Gassers including gasser hybrids are not an option at all.

Same. Except for my lawn mower, pressure washer, and string trimmer I never use, EVERYTHING here runs on diesel. I have no desire to ever buy anything else that runs on gasoline. Actually... that's partially a lie... I did tell myself that if I ever did buy a gasser, I'd want a GTI with a 6 speed. But that's a long shot really. I'm very happy with diesel, thank you very much. Electric also doesn't cut it, because I tow a lot, and it doesn't seem that EVs yet are viable for towing.

 

[Nonnee2015TDI]

Probably not. Diesel is dead in the USA and with the up and coming electric car craze will likely never come back.

Not so fast, please! Freight trains run on Diesel and Electricity and are much more fuel efficient

 

[tikal]

Diesel and electric transportation.

Is there a 'fight' between them? Reality or our own false dichotomy?