U.S. Comeback?

[Lightflyer1]

Not before I am, I bet.

 

[JSH1]

Not before I am, I bet.

There are no 2020 diesel passenger cars for sale in the USA. That sounds like dead to me.

 

[Lightflyer1]

Plenty of used ones still available and being used out there today. So they'll be around for years still. and then that gives manufacturers in the government and the powers that be the opportunity to let them back in maybe. So not dead.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

There are no 2020 diesel passenger cars for sale in the USA. That sounds like dead to me.

Not necessarily saying they're coming back, but this has happened before. Mercedes skipped the early 2000s, VW skipped the early 90s. BMW skipped from the mid-80s until 2009. Audi skipped decades, but they came back. GM skipped from, what, the mid-80s until 2014 (Cruze)(cars, not trucks, of course)?

Circumstances are different right now, but things change. They did before, might again.

I think the best passenger car application for diesel is large luxury cars and big SUVs. Greater benefits from the torque and efficiency of diesels, and the cost of emissions equipment is a smaller percentage of the total cost of the vehicle, making the option more attractive to customers. Imagine a Tahoe or Navigator that can crack 30 MPG highway.

 

[kjclow]

No. The agreement prevented VW from exporting the cars they bought back. The easiest and cheapest thing to do would have been to buy back the TDIs and export them to a country with lower emission standards. The EPA made VW either fix them or scrap them but they couldn't leave the USA.

Actually, the agreement kept VW from shipping unfixed cars out of North America. Once they fixed the ones that would resell, it didn't make economic sense to ship them elsewhere.

 

[USMCFieldMP]

We'll never see the GTD over here unfortunately...but why do they insist on not putting the 240hp bi-turbo in the GTD. Guess they don't want to cannibalize the GTI sales.

GTD sales in the UK are already more than GTI and R sales combines. The GTD is the star of the UK Golf lineup.

"However, the Golf GTD turbodiesel (costing from £27,065) easily outsells them both put together: Volkswagen says up to 15 percent of UK Golf volumes are the hot turbodiesel."

https://uk.motor1.com/news/141108/volkswagen-golf-r-outsells-gti-uk/

 

[turbobrick240]

That article is three years old. Diesel sales in the UK have fallen off a cliff in the last several years.

https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/05/new-car-sales-fall-again-as-uk-demand-for-diesel-vehicles-dives?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D#aoh=15820657202042&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Famp.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2F2019%2Fdec%2F05%2Fnew-car-sales-fall-again-as-uk-demand-for-diesel-vehicles-dives%23aoh%3D15820657202042%26referrer%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com%26amp_tf%3DFrom%2520%25251%2524s

https://www.pistonheads.com/news/features/the-long-goodbye-vw-golf-gtd/39016

 

[tikal]

TDI BlueMotion

Diesel are not coming back in the USA and least not for passenger cars. Diesels are dead here and dying in Europe.

Now that the EU regulates CO2 and not fuel economy diesels no longer have a 15% advantage due to fuel density. Countries are also getting rid of favorable tax rates on diesel fuel. Today a DI turbo gas engine with a 48V mild hybrid system gets the same CO2 rating as a diesel. The hybrid system is also cheaper than the emissions on a diesel and doesn't have the stigma of diesel gate.

Ok I get this. But to do "apples to apples" comparison, what kind of efficiency you get from the TDI engines available that have hybrid characteristics like this one giving us an combined average of 60 MPG (US gallons) and a fuel range of 990 miles?

https://www.encycarpedia.com/us/volkswagen/14-passat-1-6-tdi-bluemotion-sedan

Yes it is not available in the US but the technology exists for some time. It can do as good or better than the latest Toyota Camry hybrid which is averaging 42 MPG according to fuelly.com for the 2019 year.

Gasoline hybrids have the pros/cons of less complex emission systems but put them head to head with a TDI BlueMotion using the GREET model and see which one comes ahead environmentally speaking. I believe only a similar electric mid-size sedan running on 'clean electricity' and costing around 30% more (my estimate) would do better environmentally than TDI BlueMotion sedan (or other type of vehicles as long as they are similar).

 

[rhinorear]

Not 2020, but pretty darn close -



http://www.trucktrend.com/news/2021-cadillac-escalade-3-0l-diesel/

 

[turbobrick240]

That 3.0L Escalade won't sell at all. People who buy Escalades could care less about fuel efficiency. They want power. The V8 Duramax would have made a lot more sense for that market segment.

 

[andreigbs]

Perhaps they'll be more successful as lease vehicles for livery companies that offer upscale transportation in and around large cities. I see Escalades, Suburbans and Yukons every day around Chicago being driven by black-suited drivers.

For fuel economy alone, along with state incentives for IL to produce and use biodiesel, these behemoths could be a success story for GM.

Interesting how the EPA crackdown on the foreign diesels of VW/Audi/Porsche discouraged MB and BMW enough to drop diesels, opening up the luxobarge market to domestic brands instead.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

That 3.0L Escalade won't sell at all. People who buy Escalades could care less about fuel efficiency. They want power. The V8 Duramax would have made a lot more sense for that market segment.

Sadly, I agree with you. Unless the customer is towing. That's where the Duramax will shine.

 

[USMCFieldMP]

That article is three years old. Diesel sales in the UK have fallen off a cliff in the last several years.

Good to know, but I don't think that negates my argument that they aren't worried about the GTD stealing sales from the GTI and R. If anything, I'd say it supports it, since I'm sure they'd love to get their sales figures back to where they once were.

 

[turbobrick240]

Good to know, but I don't think that negates my argument that they aren't worried about the GTD stealing sales from the GTI and R. If anything, I'd say it supports it, since I'm sure they'd love to get their sales figures back to where they once were.

Right, if anything the plummeting diesel sales supports that argument. I would say the demise of diesel in the UK negates the argument that the GTD is the star of VW's UK lineup. It's funny how we always want what we can't get. The American auto journalists fawn all over the GTD, while to those in the UK it's a ho-hum warm hatch company car.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

I read a review of the Golf that described it as "the Camry of Europe."

 

[turbobrick240]

Exactly. Cars that are (or seem) exotic are more desirable. In Italy, Ferraris are like Ford's here. jk
I just watched Ford v Ferrari incidentally, and really enjoyed it. I highly recommend the movie to anyone who hasn't seen it. Ken Miles was a fascinating character. It's good to see him get a bit of the notoriety that Carrol Shelby has had for decades.

 

[JM Popaleetus]

Although VW just announced a new "EA288 evo" TDI (click for more info). I don't think we'll ever see another US diesel outside of SUVs and trucks in the United States. And even then, the selection is dwindling with Jaguar, BMW, and Chevy (Equinox) discontinuing their options.

Speaking of Chevy, I also think it's really a shame they discontinued the Volt and Voltec powertrains. The second generation was getting ~50 miles of electric range and ~45 MPG of generator range. I wonder if it could have done even better with a smaller diesel engine. Of course electric range would also have increased alongside year-to-year battery tech improvements.

 

[El Dobro]

Speaking of Chevy, I also think it's really a shame they discontinued the Volt and Voltec powertrains. The second generation was getting ~50 miles of electric range and ~45 MPG of generator range. I wonder if it could have done even better with a smaller diesel engine. Of course electric range would also have increased alongside year-to-year battery tech improvements.

Before settling on the 1.4 gas engine, one of the engines considered for the Gen 1 Volt was a 3 cylinder Isuzu diesel.

 

[hytron]

I would not buy an electric car for at least 10-15 years. They have so many problems and batteries are extremely expensive. I wish VW would bring TDIs back to the US! I see so many people driving large vehicles to and from work and wasting fuel for no reason. TDI is the way to go! EPA needs to loosen up their rules a bit. Just remember, the US Government does not want you driving diesel that gives you 45+ mpg, they dont make any money on you at the gas stations! Tax tax tax is what matters in the US. Unfortunately it has turned that way.

 

[nwdiver]

I would not buy an electric car for at least 10-15 years. They have so many problems and batteries are extremely expensive. I wish VW would bring TDIs back to the US! I see so many people driving large vehicles to and from work and wasting fuel for no reason. TDI is the way to go! EPA needs to loosen up their rules a bit. Just remember, the US Government does not want you driving diesel that gives you 45+ mpg, they dont make any money on you at the gas stations! Tax tax tax is what matters in the US. Unfortunately it has turned that way.

I have a friend that bought a used LEAF for $6k. It's great for getting to and from work. I can't imagine a TDI being better than that. ~45+mpg is cute. 120mpge... NOW we're talking! If your commute is <30 miles that's like ~90 minutes of sunshine.

PLUS; It's not like time has a magical quality to improving EVs. It's development driven by deployment. We get to those better EVs you're waiting for by people buying EVs today. The Model 3 only exists because people bought the model S. We only have the Model S because people bought the roadster. Help drive improvement

 

[nayr]

I never bought a Roadster, Model S or Model 3.. yet they still all exist, if the EV market is depending on me buying into that crap sooner than later.. then EV market is doomed.

my gas town car (2L CC 6MT) is paid off, and only 60k miles after 10y.. its gonna be a long while before it makes any financial sense to buy anything to replace it.. dont care if it gets 1000mpg if it means a new car payment.

 

[nwdiver]

I never bought a Roadster, Model S or Model 3.. yet they still all exist, if the EV market is depending on me buying into that crap sooner than later.. then EV market is doomed.

Fortunately for everyone many other people did The more the better... we get cheaper better EVs sooner.

Yeah... the economic viability of an EV depends on how much you drive. If you're driving a 10mpg beater 40 miles to work everyday spending >$2k/yr on fuel then spending $6k on a used LEAF makes a TON of sense.

But in pure economic terms no new car makes any sense ever... which is why I'm glad we at least stopped manufacturing new TDIs. Hopefully soon other ICE will follow the same trend. If you want an economic car buy used. If you want a nice new car buy an EV.

 

[nayr]

I put 20k miles a year on my TDI, but wife and I work from home.. thats all traveling ranges EV's cant do yet.. not to mention towing.

the CC would be perfect to replace with an EV, it only goes to grocery stores, kids school, and an occasional trip to the office or across the metro.. but going from a nice turbo charged luxury sedan w/a manual transmission that is quite a blast to drive to a LEAF would be a huge downgrade even if I traded it straight across.. plus for the price of a battery I could keep this CC on the road for a few more decades like this.

The niche that EV's could fill, low millage city dwellers.. still has a way to go before they are worthy of cheap beater status.. $6k gets you alot more car in the used market than a boring ass leaf.

 

[turbobrick240]

Worthy of cheap beater status? Is that something to aspire to? I was very tempted to do the "Tesla stretch" for a new Model 3 when my golf went back to VW. I invested in the stock instead. Now that stretch wouldn't be nearly so strenuous. I'll probably get one later this year.

 

[nwdiver]

The niche that EV's could fill, low millage city dwellers.. still has a way to go before they are worthy of cheap beater status.. $6k gets you alot more car in the used market than a boring ass leaf.

I regularly take road trips from NM to WA in roughly the same amount of time in my EV as in my Jetta. You can't get a used Tesla for ~$6k yet but we get cheap used EVs by buying more new ones. Completely onboard with the fact a used TDI will make the most sense to a lot of people. I guess my point is that it doesn't make any sense to buy a new TDI.

EVs may have been 'niche city cars' 10 years ago but that's certainly not the case today with something like a Model 3.

$6k gets you alot more car in the used market than a boring ass leaf.

.... not if the objective is saving $$$ ....

 

[Daemon64]

Speaking from someone who has a 2015 Q5 TDI, and a 2019 VW E-Golf. I would gladly keep my diesel all day long. The golf is just plain boring. There is no excitment in an EV. 0-60 in 2.4s doesn't excite me from a model s either. We have a 2011 HIGHLY modified WRX w/ built alot and it does sub 3s 0-60, and strong qm pulls, is a standard and blast to drive. Where the e-golf shines is heavy traffic, but the Q5 does more than adequate there. That's from an excitement perspective.

Ok. Lets look at it from an efficiency Standard my Q5 Averages 29mpg in fuelly. And the e-golf which is rated at 119 mpgE combined - Except we get around 3.3 miles / kWh - 4.4 / kWh - So 111.21 MPGe - 148 MPGe . E-Golf does better in this department and electrics in general, ofcourse things like hybrids get you pretty close depending.

Now environmental -
So my Q5 produces 357 g/mi of CO2 based on the average and the egolf --- Nationwide the CO2/kWh ( https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=74&t=11 ) is .99lbs or 449.056grams, at the very best the egolf is producing 102.06 g/mi, and at the worst its producing 136.8 g/mi. Not bad. Now lets compare that to say a european golf tdi ( 225 g/mi ) ... Now lets just mention regular hybrids for a second not PHEV - 154 g/mi to 190 g/mi depending on vehicle. None of this includes the amount to create them just the emissions ongoing. What I'm saying is that electrics are not the only answer here.... Take the 2020 SQ5 TDI w/ the mild hybrid g/mi of co2 - 285 ( this is based on manufacturer averages ofcourse and i always beat those )... but if i didn't go sports and just got another Q5 TDI like offered in europe that is currently 231 g/mi. They just don't offer them here, which is why I have to pollute more. The cleanest non-hybrid SUV is lexus UX @ 225g/mi US, and hybrid Q5 is around 165 g/mi ... but those are misleading because they assume none for the electricity since its a PHEV... which is not true. ( I need a vehicle that can tow btw ).

Alternatively we could be immediately more environmental if we switched globally to carbon capture synthetic fuels, because that would make all current vehicles effectively carbon neutral if not negative. This would also be applied to place that cannot use electrics effective currently like trucking, trains, plains, cargo ships, etc.... Like Carbon Engineering https://carbonengineering.com/ --- Pair this with ducted fuel injection and you have a good recipe to make this stuff neutral while electrics, can really grow, and the grid can be cleaning as well.

The second is - More microscale high deployment nucleur like nupower --- https://www.nuscalepower.com/ --- Just replacing our current reactors with these would be infinitely safer, and produce a scale of about 5x the power. Which would make our grid 100% nucleur and some renewables, and remove all fossil fuels.... just saying... This would make the case for electrics

Adoption - Currently global EV sales are around 2% annually. Last year 17 million vehicles were sold in the US, and the are around 279 million registered vehicles in the US. Assuming a 100% ev adoption rate per year, it would take us around 17 years to full cycle through all of our vehicles. But lets assume the EV segment is going to burst at the seems and the ev market sales literally go 2500% over current and over the next 10 years it spikes to 50%, thats means 34 years to transition. This is why I'd like to see synthetic fuels come online, and become mandatory, because then atleast we can significantly slow the damage done, in all areas, and all sectors.

There is a lot of rambline here So boiling it down:

1. I don't think electrics are ready, since basically people don't want them yet, and they aren't are convenient yet.

2. We need synthetic carbon capture fuels today

3. A nupower switch would be awesome since it would clean up eletricity generation which electric cars use, but so does everything else in this country.

4. Ducted fuel injection needs to be a thing

5. Please bring us modern TDI's with mhev, so we can switch to greener alternatives especially for those of us that tow some weight, as electrics and density are not their to handle this at all yet.

6. They need to keep researching on how to make any ICE engines more efficient because they're not going anywhere. So improve this while electric adoption is happening.

 

[turbobrick240]

Sounds like someone isn't very happy with their e-golf purchase. What the heck are these synthetic fuels anyhow? Biofuels? Micro nukes are a terrible idea. There will probably be a time and a place for micro nukes, but it isn't now, and it isn't here.

 

[nwdiver]

Now environmental -
......
1. I don't think electrics are ready, since basically people don't want them yet, and they aren't are convenient yet.

The thing most people miss/ignore about the energy use of EVs for charging... and I cannot emphasize this enough;

EVs DO NOT USE GRID MIX

Take SPP for example. Last year my ISO SPP was ~25% wind. Yet if you were to look at the mix at the time I was charging my EV it was closer to 50%. Further... you can use curtailment so that even though the mix was ~50% at the time the dirty fuel was likely a thermal plant at its lowest idle and wind was actually being reduced. Charging off-peak dramatically decreases the emissions of EVs and very soon smart charging will decrease this even more. An aggregator can use 100k EVs as a virtual power plant. Too much wind? Increase charge rate 50MW. Wind output just went down or demand picked up? Instead of increasing the output of a peaker plant by 75MW decrease the charge rate 75MW. Software will always be cheaper than a physical generator or grid storage.

Further... having dispatchable demand (EVs) increases the amount of wind and solar the grid can economically support. So it becomes a synergistic relationship. More EVs => More wind/solar => Cleaner cheaper EVs => More wind/solar => More EVs => More Renewables; Curtailment... not storage will be the first challenge to cleaning up the grid. EVs can be a BIG part of the solution to curtailment.

??? How are EVs not ready? The difference in trip time is now practically non-existent. Towing might still be an issue but for passenger cars EVs are more convenient than ICE most of the time for most people. The investments should be in improving EVs and the infrastructure that supports them not wasting $$$ on obsolete ICE tech.

 

[Daemon64]

Sounds like someone isn't very happy with their e-golf purchase. What the heck are these synthetic fuels anyhow? Biofuels? Micro nukes are a terrible idea. There will probably be a time and a place for micro nukes, but it isn't now, and it isn't here.

No. The e-golf is fine for what it is. It is her commuter back and forth to work. We are fortunate that, that's all she needs to do in it. Couple reasons are this: The city with live in is 100% renewable energy only in our grid... entire city is setup with the local power companies like that. Also the fast charging network through upper new hampshire, maine, vermont is kinda crap. Its better if you have a tesla but anything else its' not. We might barely squeek out the range in the summer, but absolutely no chance of it in the winter.

So Carbon engineering the company i linked does direct air capture CO2, uses some chemical reactions to literally pull the CO2 from the atmosphere, and stores it. They use renewable energy sources of electricity, and take the captured CO2 from the air, and hydrogen from water, and then make gas / diesel. They have press releases, and etc... if you search them out.

I'm not sure why you're comment on micro nukes. If you look into nupower you would realize that they are some ridiculous amount safer, can be shutdown via a release, produce greater power density, are much more efficient on the fueling and etc... Plus my advocation is to replace only our aging nucleur facilities with 40 year newer, much safer technology... Can you elaborate on why you dislike micro-nukes?

 

[nwdiver]

Can you elaborate on why you dislike micro-nukes?

I can't speak for @Turbobrick240 but I dislike nuclear because is ridiculously, OMG expensive. New Nuclear is ~4x more per kWh and ~15x more per kW compared to solar and wind. Nuclear has evolved into a fancy & expensive welfare program.