Sandia Natl Labs develops a simple modification that greatly reduces soot emissions

[Lightflyer1]

Maybe not if this device cleans up like it says it does. It would make a great headline: US National Labs cleans up VW's environmental mess. Billions put to good use.

 

[kjclow]

Very few would care. It's not a scandal so at best it will make the front page below the fold. More likely on page 2.

 

[woofie2]

Maybe not if this device cleans up like it says it does. It would make a great headline: US National Labs cleans up VW's environmental mess. Billions put to good use.

Very few would care. It's not a scandal so at best it will make the front page below the fold. More likely on page 2.

VW dropped diesels and is pushing forward with their apple iD vehicles.
The All electric plugin bunch took over. So it won't make the news.

However bringing CAT, Cummins, International, MAC, Detroit, and others to a much lower emissions level and better fuel economy would make front page news.

Then seeing it adapted and adopted by Cummins, Duramax and VM Motori to meet the road light trucks would be a second win.

 

[Daemon64]

It appears there is a massive re-adoption going on in Europe. Many of the sport versions that only had gas engines before are switched to the 3.0 tdi.... interesting... hoped ducted becomes a thing...

 

[nicklockard]

Yeah. Its become increasingly clear that except for Tesla, pretty much all auto manufacturers are blowing electric hot air with no real commitment. Ill wager on more hybridization of more platforms.

 

[Daemon64]

100% Agree. I think massive amounts of hybrids are coming. Especially PHEV. US Q5 PHEV, has a co2 emissions of 165 g/mi according to the fueleconomy.gov, and the regular version is 364 g/mi. It has a supposed 20mile all electric range.

The euro SQ5 TDI MHEV gets pretty close to that, and thats a diesel performance version.

Interesting is that g/mi brings them pretty close to a full electric on our current electric grid mix. ( Some places are cleaner than others ofcourse ).

 

[atc98002]

As a current PHEV driver, I don't feel 20 miles range is enough. My Niro is rated at 26 miles (24 with HVAC on), and I actually get close to 30. But my commute is 30 miles round trip, with no charging at work. I'd need 35 miles to make the round trip solely under EV power. And of course if the distance were longer, I would need far more range.

I've been considering moving to my intended retirement location, and driving into the office once per pay period for a couple of days. That would be about 220 miles round trip, and I've already been scouting out prices for used TDIs. once this lockdown is over and I actually am permitted to go to the office again, I plan on having that discussion with management. Not certain they'll allow it, but they allow contractors to do it now, so I think they don't have an argument against it.

 

[Daemon64]

ATC,

I full agree with you. I'm honestly interested in the Samsung battery breakthrough that significantly enhances density, and ALSO significantly reduces weight: https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1024979_samsung-makes-solid-state-battery-breakthrough ... If something like this made it into say the Q5 hybrid, or a diesel hybrid, you'd effectively increase all electric range to probably 40+, while giving the option of long trips on the ICE engine.

But, like you said the bigger thing is for those who can we should do a full shift to not driving at all. Tires pollute more than the damned engines... heavier vehicles like EVs, big trucks, heavy SUVs, and cheap tires pollute more... no such thing as a free lunch right? https://www.motor1.com/news/405475/tire-wear-pollution-study/

As far as your individual setup:

Your niro is supposedly "0" on electric and 190 g/mi on gas. Or 950grams * 5 = 4,750 grams / week.

2015 Q5 TDI is 384 g/mi --- 220 miles --- 84,480 grams
2015 A7 TDI is 349 g/mi --- 220 miles --- 76,780 grams
2015 VW Golf TDI is 295 g/mi - 220 miles - 64,900 grams

2019 Niro PHEV - 220 miles - 36,100 grams
( As far as environmental -- The niro is a relatively good car via pollution -- https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Pow...ear2=2019&make=Kia&baseModel=Niro&srchtyp=ymm --- click ont he "Energy & Environment Tab -- I extrapolated your milage / all gas base on the 2.2gal / 100mi figure vs the niro touring which is 2.3gal /100 mi and used that to calculate your gas only pollution ) Not even the VW Jetta touches the niro, which is amazing to me, since the jetta is a crazy fuel effecient vehicle.

My other half before all of this got her work to let her work from home 1 day per week. If we're being environmental and real, this needs to be more of the norm for those of us with office jobs. If everyone could do it and just work from home 1 day per week, that would immediately reduce pollution by 20% due to the reduction in miles. Couple that with a vehicle that get its emissions cut 50% via hybridization, and you go down to producing only 40% of the total pollution you did before via driving.

It's all about shifts in how we do things ( and i know its not realistic for everyone to work from home... just saying it all helps in the scale. )

 

[turbobrick240]

100% Agree. I think massive amounts of hybrids are coming. Especially PHEV. US Q5 PHEV, has a co2 emissions of 165 g/mi according to the fueleconomy.gov, and the regular version is 364 g/mi. It has a supposed 20mile all electric range.
The euro SQ5 TDI MHEV gets pretty close to that, and thats a diesel performance version.
Interesting is that g/mi brings them pretty close to a full electric on our current electric grid mix. ( Some places are cleaner than others ofcourse ).

The Model Y produces about 90 g/mi CO2 using the New England grid mix. This is probably going to be a tough year for most auto sales, but vehicles like the Q5 are going to get absolutely crushed, imo. I expect the Model Y to take a similar sized bite out of the premium CUV pie as the Model 3 did to the premium sedan segment.

 

[Daemon64]

Yeah I'm not sure honestly. Subaru for example lost the least amount of sales w/ their forester so far... And thats one of the bigger ones... So almost all manufacturers are down about 50% total sales right now. And i agree it will be a tough year. But being realistic here: Tesla sold a total of 192k vehicles in the USA in 2018, and 192.25k in 2019, and total Tesla Q1 2020 figures worldwide are 88,400 vehicles. The US car market sets 17.3 million per year new vehicles. So Tesla makes up 1.12% of all NEW US car sales. Yes they somewhat pull from their competition... but its' not as much as everyone thinks. Also keep in mind in the US, there are 33.8 million used cars sold each year. Also keep in mind Tesla has only sold world wide 1,023,718 vehicles as of Q1 2020 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc. ) .... the US has 284.5 million registered vehicles as of 2019... so tesla if you counted all sales total would make up .36% of the US registered vehicles if they were all here......

Not saying that Tesla is not making headway.... they were talking about potentially selling 500k vehicles there year, and lets assume they double that by 2024 selling 1 million per year world wide its still way too small and not enough to make a real difference...( Supposedly between Europe, Russia, US, Japand, Brazil, India, China there were 65.5 million new vehicles sold in 2019 ) Tesla Sold 365,194 world wide in 2019,or .56% of all new vehicles. In perspective Ford sold 17.1 million vehicles world wide in the same time period.

Anyways all I'm getting at is, Tesla's gains are interesting, but I don't think they are making as much of an impact right now as much as the hype says...

 

[turbobrick240]

I actually think Tesla's impact on the auto industry is still underappreciated. I expect that the 1 million annual production rate will happen in 2022 not 2024. Hopefully, the Berlin Gigafactory will be up and running next year, and the Shanghai Gigafactory will ramp up production impressively this year. Hard to say for sure what's going to happen in the current situation though.
Btw, a million vehicles produced is nothing to sneeze at. The detractors said the same thing at 10,000, 100,000, and I'm sure they'll be singing the same tune when Tesla #10 million rolls off the production line. I expect that will be in the 2025 timeframe.

 

[Daemon64]

Turbo,

Please do not mistake my statement as detracting from Tesla's success. They are the first new US car manufacturer to succeed in 1/2 century. So absolutely more power to them. My statement was more on their supply chain impact globally and US based. Current statistics show that pure EVs make up around 2% of global auto sales. Meaning 98% are ICE, Hybrid or etc...

Lets say by 2022 Tesla is effectively selling 1 Million Electric cars annually. That still means 64/65 Million cars annually are ICE or hybrid. That doesn't solve our problems. Its great for Tesla's bottom line sure. But environmentally its a drop in the bucket. All I am saying in relation to that is I am more interested in Advances to ICE / Hybrid cars right now since they make up such a large % of the market, they will have the biggest impact in the long term right now. Lets say globally we had a 20 - 50% reduction in ICE vehicles CO2 output, through advances in timing, valve, cams, etc... that are already coming out + hybridizing them, and that made up the majority of all the ICE cars sold since the other models would be phase out. Even at a 20% reduction across that board.... that would mean a if each car produced 300 g/mi average and 20% was the figure that would be a reduction of 60 g/mi * 64 million vs 1 million * 300 g/mi reduction ---- 3,840,000,000 less g vs 300,000,000g.... Hell even a modest 5% reduction across the ICE vehicles would be a 960,000,000g, and a 2% reduction would still be more impactful than all electrics sold that year @ 384,000,000g reduction and all of that assumes 0 g/mi for electrics, which we know that based on energy mix they do infact pollute some... I am heavily weighting in Electrics favor in these figures. Also keep in mind these are all g/mi figures. The impact is ridiculous.

 

[nicklockard]

Daemon64 you absolutely nailed it regarding the environmental impact of work from home (WFH).

If there is to be any silver lining when we come out of this cov2 cloud, it'll be the widespread recognition that roughly 1/3 workers can EASILY work from home by remote connection and be fully effective, if not more productive. That would do far more for environmental health than any 5 year projected increase of electric car sales could do.

I will also argue that WFH boosts family health and mental health. I've seen more families walking together and playing with their pets and kids and actually talking and having fun than I have since the 70's. It's the way we ought to be, but everyone was so obsessed with competing to have more more more.

Negawatts is KING. Energy you don't spend is worth 100 times the small efficiency gains of driving electric cars MORE miles. Jevon's paradox is real.

There's a reason the recycling mandate always was "reduce, reuse, recycle". But oddly NO ONE gets it. It's because reduce is 100 times more effective than recycling and 10 times more effective than reusing. Do it in that order: reduce, reuse, recycle.

Same principle applies to living our lives, how we structure work and family balance, our relations to our things. We've got to learn to not 'fall in love' with our automobiles.

I know I'm just as guilty as anyone here. Always been a 'car guy'. But I realize my folly.

I'm done ranting I guess. I do think that it's relevant to the topic though. Electric cars are no panacea to anything. They're kind of a status symbol at this point and time. We're the problem because we value 'sexy, fast' cars more than we value VALUE and UTILITY.

How you power a car is only 1/10th as important as how much you drive.

 

[turbobrick240]

I'd argue that every vehicle is a status symbol, whether or not we choose to admit it. I know I have a different impression of a perfect stranger that pulls up in a brand new bimmer than the one pulling up in a banged up, rusted out, twenty year old Nissan- before they even step out of the vehicle. It's unfortunate, but that's reality.

This ducted injection tech is exciting, but I think it's too late to have an impact on diesel passenger cars.

 

[Daemon64]

So,

Just for fun and my belief in this technology. I wrote an email to the acting CEO of Audi, who then forwarded my info to a US rep, and here was the response I received:

"Good Afternoon,

Thank you for reaching out Mr. Abraham Schot via email. After reading your correspondence, Mr. Schot noted this to be in regards to a vehicle of United States specifications and asked our team to reply on his behalf.

It means a lot that you as an Audi owner and consumer are looking for ways to better the diesel application. When a submission of this nature is provided, we ensure the ideas are provided to the appropriate engineering department for review.

You are correct, no matter what, diesel owners understand this is efficient technology. But there is always room for improvement. At Audi we continually strive to update our vehicle portfolio, provide the latest and greatest technology and ensure our vehicles are engineered with safety in mind. We sincerely thank you for this information and have made sure the appropriate personnel have access to your suggestion.

We do hope that you, your family and friends are all safe and healthy during these trying times in our world. Thank you for your contact and we appreciate this opportunity to respond.

Warmest regards,

Meghan Nagel
Executive Case Specialist

Audi of America, Inc.
Customer Experience
3800 Hamlin Road
Auburn Hills, MI, 48326
United States of America"

... I'll take it I guess. I'm sure they already know about ducted, but who knows right? As my old boss used to say "The squeaky wheel gets the oil."

 

[tikal]

Turbo,

Please do not mistake my statement as detracting from Tesla's success. They are the first new US car manufacturer to succeed in 1/2 century. So absolutely more power to them. My statement was more on their supply chain impact globally and US based. Current statistics show that pure EVs make up around 2% of global auto sales. Meaning 98% are ICE, Hybrid or etc...

Lets say by 2022 Tesla is effectively selling 1 Million Electric cars annually. That still means 64/65 Million cars annually are ICE or hybrid. That doesn't solve our problems. Its great for Tesla's bottom line sure. But environmentally its a drop in the bucket. All I am saying in relation to that is I am more interested in Advances to ICE / Hybrid cars right now since they make up such a large % of the market, they will have the biggest impact in the long term right now. Lets say globally we had a 20 - 50% reduction in ICE vehicles CO2 output, through advances in timing, valve, cams, etc... that are already coming out + hybridizing them, and that made up the majority of all the ICE cars sold since the other models would be phase out. Even at a 20% reduction across that board.... that would mean a if each car produced 300 g/mi average and 20% was the figure that would be a reduction of 60 g/mi * 64 million vs 1 million * 300 g/mi reduction ---- 3,840,000,000 less g vs 300,000,000g.... Hell even a modest 5% reduction across the ICE vehicles would be a 960,000,000g, and a 2% reduction would still be more impactful than all electrics sold that year @ 384,000,000g reduction and all of that assumes 0 g/mi for electrics, which we know that based on energy mix they do infact pollute some... I am heavily weighting in Electrics favor in these figures. Also keep in mind these are all g/mi figures. The impact is ridiculous.

I like your big picture data analysis Daemon64!

Regardless of what we say, the data analysis is showing that Tesla continues to trend towards more success with more models and so forth.

The trend I do not see in the data so far is that the sale of luxury Tesla vehicles is going to replace a substantial number of non-luxury ICE vehicles, in the next five years or so, that a) cost on the average $30,000 (+/- 10%) or less and b) have a range of 400 miles or more.

 

[Daemon64]

Tikal,

Yes Tesla has made some impact. Keep in mind they're impact currently is not even what i showed in my numbers... those are projected numbers off of Tesla producing and selling 1 million EVs by end of 2022 which is their own numbers. Who knows how much Covid 19 is going to effect that. But lets assume Tesla doubles their numbers again in 3 years to 2025. That would be 2 million, out of the 65 million light duty vehicles sold world wide. Meaning 63 million would be ICE... but assuming Tesla is only 1% ( for round numbers ) of the current market ( more like 1.13% ), that means total EVs would be 4 million of the 65 million vehicles sold. Its only a drop in the bucket currently compared to minor efficiency gains in ICE vehicles. Which BTW are already on their way. Honda, Subaru, Toyota, VW, and etc... are showing new engines and tech on the way for 2021, 2022 w/ in some cases 10% or higher fuel efficieny gains, but due to hybrid and etc... are showing reducing emissions in some cases of 50%.

So its interesting times to watch the race so to speak on both sides.

 

[tikal]

Tikal,

Yes Tesla has made some impact. Keep in mind they're impact currently is not even what i showed in my numbers... those are projected numbers off of Tesla producing and selling 1 million EVs by end of 2022 which is their own numbers. Who knows how much Covid 19 is going to effect that. But lets assume Tesla doubles their numbers again in 3 years to 2025. That would be 2 million, out of the 65 million light duty vehicles sold world wide. Meaning 63 million would be ICE... but assuming Tesla is only 1% ( for round numbers ) of the current market ( more like 1.13% ), that means total EVs would be 4 million of the 65 million vehicles sold. Its only a drop in the bucket currently compared to minor efficiency gains in ICE vehicles. Which BTW are already on their way. Honda, Subaru, Toyota, VW, and etc... are showing new engines and tech on the way for 2021, 2022 w/ in some cases 10% or higher fuel efficieny gains, but due to hybrid and etc... are showing reducing emissions in some cases of 50%.

So its interesting times to watch the race so to speak on both sides.

Thanks Daemon64. I will be curious to see the growth rate of non-Tesla EVs (current and projected). Do we have data that shows the success of Tesla will be contagious (no pun intended) to non-Tesla EV models?

 

[turbobrick240]

So wait- is Tesla is supposed to be the sole manufacturer of EV's in 2025? Tesla is just leading the charge , they won't be fighting the battle single handedly. VW is moving into EV's in a big way. Toyota just partnered up with BYD. I anticipate that in five years time the US will at least have caught up to where Europe is today in terms of EV market share.

https://cleantechnica-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/cleantechnica.com/2020/04/06/4718-tesla-model-3-sales-in-march-help-push-uk-ev-market-share-to-record-7-3/amp/?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15862204104412&amp_ct=1586220703471&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fcleantechnica.com%2F2020%2F04%2F06%2F4718-tesla-model-3-sales-in-march-help-push-uk-ev-market-share-to-record-7-3%2Famp%2F%23aoh%3D15862204104412%26amp_ct%3D1586220703471%26referrer%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com%26amp_tf%3DFrom%2520%25251%2524s

 

[Daemon64]

Well. Currently and roughly 2% of global auto sales are EV's. Tesla only makes up something like .37% of that, keep in mind that includes chinese electric makers and such. Which is why i extrapolated that the rest of the market is twice that of Tesla. There is no hard and fast numbers other than Tesla sold around 350,000 vehicles globally last year. So in my figures I am considering Tesla to grow more than the other manufacturers, and Tesla is projected 1million annual vehicles sold by 2022, So my estimated number was 2 mil Tesla, 2 mil other EVs. It still remains to be seen how much of that success will be diminishing returns based on market saturation and want for electric vehicles specifically. The numbers are so small now its easy to see trends, where a brick wall could be hit...

The other tough part for non-Tesla EV's is that in many places the charging network is basically **** ( here in new england ). There are very few DC Fast chargers, and in some states very few level 2. If there can be a comprehensive roll out it will be better. But that remains to be seen as well.

As a side note all of the European market share of electric vehicle numbers for pure EV's is around 2.1 - 2.2% in all sources. Many of the sources are giving misleading info like 9.6% market share, when you look into the data 7.5% of that was PHEV. Which is kind of what I've been saying all along. I think what will happen is if you can get PHEV around 40 miles they will sell like hotcakes, and basically negate the market for pure EVs. People will do all of their commuting on 100% electric, but have the freedom to go long distance w/o long recharge times to them. I see the market pushing hard for PHEV. With a good uptake for pure electrics as well.

 

[Daemon64]

Lastly,

Let's try to get back on topic. If you want to have a discussion on EV vs MHEV vs PHEV vs diesel vs gas... start another discussion. This topic is about ducted fuel injection in diesel vehicles....

 

[tikal]

^^Agree.

Moved the discussion to here: http://forums.tdiclub.com/newreply.php?do=postreply&t=448191

 

[turbobrick240]

Many of the sources are giving misleading info like 9.6% market share, when you look into the data 7.5% of that was PHEV. Which is kind of what I've been saying all along. I think what will happen is if you can get PHEV around 40 miles they will sell like hotcakes, and basically negate the market for pure EVs. People will do all of their commuting on 100% electric, but have the freedom to go long distance w/o long recharge times to them. I see the market pushing hard for PHEV. With a good uptake for pure electrics as well.

I think you must be looking at some old data. In my previous link the March 2020 EV marketshare in the UK shows BEV's outnumbering PHEV's nearly 2:1. In this link of March 2020 marketshare in Germany the ratio is roughly 1:1. https://cleantechnica-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/cleantechnica.com/2020/04/04/germany-hits-record-9-2-ev-market-share-in-march-tesla-model-3-1/amp/?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15862297664001&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fcleantechnica.com%2F2020%2F04%2F04%2Fgermany-hits-record-9-2-ev-market-share-in-march-tesla-model-3-1%2F

PHEV's are great. After living with one for a year or two most owners are ready to go full BEV.

 

[Daemon64]

Turbo - I have responded in the thread tikal moved to.

 

[atc98002]

PHEV's are great. After living with one for a year or two most owners are ready to go full BEV.

That's my situation. My PHEV gives a taste of EV driving, but it doesn't have either the power or the range of a BEV. The upcoming RAV4 Prime PHEV will be closer to a full EV, as it will have a heat pump and about 40 miles of EV range, along with a very powerful (for a PHEV) EV motor. It won't need the ICE to climb hills like mine does.

But for me, the VW ID.4 will likely be my next car when my lease is up. The size of a Jetta with the interior space of the Passat, 300 miles of range, and based on everything shown so far it will be an attractive car.

 

[Daemon64]

Reposting to Get back on topic:

So,

Just for fun and my belief in this technology. I wrote an email to the acting CEO of Audi, who then forwarded my info to a US rep, and here was the response I received:

"Good Afternoon,

Thank you for reaching out Mr. Abraham Schot via email. After reading your correspondence, Mr. Schot noted this to be in regards to a vehicle of United States specifications and asked our team to reply on his behalf.

It means a lot that you as an Audi owner and consumer are looking for ways to better the diesel application. When a submission of this nature is provided, we ensure the ideas are provided to the appropriate engineering department for review.

You are correct, no matter what, diesel owners understand this is efficient technology. But there is always room for improvement. At Audi we continually strive to update our vehicle portfolio, provide the latest and greatest technology and ensure our vehicles are engineered with safety in mind. We sincerely thank you for this information and have made sure the appropriate personnel have access to your suggestion.

We do hope that you, your family and friends are all safe and healthy during these trying times in our world. Thank you for your contact and we appreciate this opportunity to respond.

Warmest regards,

Meghan Nagel
Executive Case Specialist

Audi of America, Inc.
Customer Experience
3800 Hamlin Road
Auburn Hills, MI, 48326
United States of America"

... I'll take it I guess. I'm sure they already know about ducted, but who knows right? As my old boss used to say "The squeaky wheel gets the oil."

 

[turbobrick240]

That was a very polite response from Audi. That's worth something. But the cynic in me says they probably filed the correspondence in the same folder as my childhood wish lists to Santa. At least somebody gave it a glance over.

 

[tdihopeful]

Thats pretty neat if the claimed gains are accurate and when it is said that there is essentially a two for one gain elimination/reduction of both Soot and Nitrogen Oxide that, could be stated as three for one considering reduction in fuel consumption as a benefit. This tech is best applied to ocean going cargo ships, semi-tractor trailer trucks, diesel locomotives and diesel powered construction equipment. The ocean going cargo ships hold the largest contribution to emissions and in comparison the entire VW and AUDI fleet is essentially a non-issue in comparison as far as I know.