Maybe not if this device cleans up like it says it does. It would make a great headline: US National Labs cleans up VW's environmental mess. Billions put to good use.
VW dropped diesels and is pushing forward with their apple iD vehicles.Very few would care. It's not a scandal so at best it will make the front page below the fold. More likely on page 2.
The Model Y produces about 90 g/mi CO2 using the New England grid mix. This is probably going to be a tough year for most auto sales, but vehicles like the Q5 are going to get absolutely crushed, imo. I expect the Model Y to take a similar sized bite out of the premium CUV pie as the Model 3 did to the premium sedan segment.100% Agree. I think massive amounts of hybrids are coming. Especially PHEV. US Q5 PHEV, has a co2 emissions of 165 g/mi according to the fueleconomy.gov, and the regular version is 364 g/mi. It has a supposed 20mile all electric range.
The euro SQ5 TDI MHEV gets pretty close to that, and thats a diesel performance version.
Interesting is that g/mi brings them pretty close to a full electric on our current electric grid mix. ( Some places are cleaner than others ofcourse ).
I like your big picture data analysis Daemon64!Turbo,
Please do not mistake my statement as detracting from Tesla's success. They are the first new US car manufacturer to succeed in 1/2 century. So absolutely more power to them. My statement was more on their supply chain impact globally and US based. Current statistics show that pure EVs make up around 2% of global auto sales. Meaning 98% are ICE, Hybrid or etc...
Lets say by 2022 Tesla is effectively selling 1 Million Electric cars annually. That still means 64/65 Million cars annually are ICE or hybrid. That doesn't solve our problems. Its great for Tesla's bottom line sure. But environmentally its a drop in the bucket. All I am saying in relation to that is I am more interested in Advances to ICE / Hybrid cars right now since they make up such a large % of the market, they will have the biggest impact in the long term right now. Lets say globally we had a 20 - 50% reduction in ICE vehicles CO2 output, through advances in timing, valve, cams, etc... that are already coming out + hybridizing them, and that made up the majority of all the ICE cars sold since the other models would be phase out. Even at a 20% reduction across that board.... that would mean a if each car produced 300 g/mi average and 20% was the figure that would be a reduction of 60 g/mi * 64 million vs 1 million * 300 g/mi reduction ---- 3,840,000,000 less g vs 300,000,000g.... Hell even a modest 5% reduction across the ICE vehicles would be a 960,000,000g, and a 2% reduction would still be more impactful than all electrics sold that year @ 384,000,000g reduction and all of that assumes 0 g/mi for electrics, which we know that based on energy mix they do infact pollute some... I am heavily weighting in Electrics favor in these figures. Also keep in mind these are all g/mi figures. The impact is ridiculous.
Thanks Daemon64. I will be curious to see the growth rate of non-Tesla EVs (current and projected). Do we have data that shows the success of Tesla will be contagious (no pun intended) to non-Tesla EV models?Tikal,
Yes Tesla has made some impact. Keep in mind they're impact currently is not even what i showed in my numbers... those are projected numbers off of Tesla producing and selling 1 million EVs by end of 2022 which is their own numbers. Who knows how much Covid 19 is going to effect that. But lets assume Tesla doubles their numbers again in 3 years to 2025. That would be 2 million, out of the 65 million light duty vehicles sold world wide. Meaning 63 million would be ICE... but assuming Tesla is only 1% ( for round numbers ) of the current market ( more like 1.13% ), that means total EVs would be 4 million of the 65 million vehicles sold. Its only a drop in the bucket currently compared to minor efficiency gains in ICE vehicles. Which BTW are already on their way. Honda, Subaru, Toyota, VW, and etc... are showing new engines and tech on the way for 2021, 2022 w/ in some cases 10% or higher fuel efficieny gains, but due to hybrid and etc... are showing reducing emissions in some cases of 50%.
So its interesting times to watch the race so to speak on both sides.
I think you must be looking at some old data. In my previous link the March 2020 EV marketshare in the UK shows BEV's outnumbering PHEV's nearly 2:1. In this link of March 2020 marketshare in Germany the ratio is roughly 1:1. https://cleantechnica-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/cleantechnica.com/2020/04/04/germany-hits-record-9-2-ev-market-share-in-march-tesla-model-3-1/amp/?amp_js_v=a3&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15862297664001&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fcleantechnica.com%2F2020%2F04%2F04%2Fgermany-hits-record-9-2-ev-market-share-in-march-tesla-model-3-1%2FMany of the sources are giving misleading info like 9.6% market share, when you look into the data 7.5% of that was PHEV. Which is kind of what I've been saying all along. I think what will happen is if you can get PHEV around 40 miles they will sell like hotcakes, and basically negate the market for pure EVs. People will do all of their commuting on 100% electric, but have the freedom to go long distance w/o long recharge times to them. I see the market pushing hard for PHEV. With a good uptake for pure electrics as well.
That's my situation. My PHEV gives a taste of EV driving, but it doesn't have either the power or the range of a BEV. The upcoming RAV4 Prime PHEV will be closer to a full EV, as it will have a heat pump and about 40 miles of EV range, along with a very powerful (for a PHEV) EV motor. It won't need the ICE to climb hills like mine does.PHEV's are great. After living with one for a year or two most owners are ready to go full BEV.