Risks of Continued Driving/Delaying Buyback?

[ExTdiGuy]

I'm at 63k miles on my 2013 Wagon and drive 60 miles a day (summers off).

VW has approved me for $25,500 in total buyback. Minus my current loan balance, I'll be getting a check for $15,500.

If I hold the car for another year my loan balance will be less and I'll get back around $20k. If I hold on to it for the full 2 year I'll get back around $25k assuming I don't go over the miles.

My concern/question: What are the risks in continuing to drive it? The HPFP repair scares me. I bought white bottle power service diesel clean today.

It would be nice to drive the car at least another year for essentially free. BUT if driving it puts me at risk for something major, I'll probably get rid of it. I also think a diesel durango is coming in the fall.

 

[PacCoastFwy923]

The risks are major mechanical or total loss, but that's not the whole picture.

Major mechanical you're out the cost of repair, or at least the cost to get it minimally up and running, enough for turn-in. But you'd have to offset **potential** cost of a $3k repair vs. the known savings of driving your car depreciation free for two years, which easily bests that.

You can estimate that by comparing your car's VW buyback value compared to a Jetta two years older with the estimated extra miles you'll put on it, on kbb.com.

You looked at getting $15k now vs. $20k in a year, or $25k in two. That's all the same, because your payment from VW in increasing at the same rate you're paying your loan off, so you're really just looking at the monthly interest, which is most likely below $30 and dropping with each payment.

You can talk to your insurance about getting an "agreed value endorsement" for your Jetta, and insuring it for the buyback amount, which would protect its value in the event of a total loss.

Lastly, all the the bad things that can happen to your Jetta can also happen to your new car, although in the case of a major mechanical, it'd be under warranty. But by delaying until 2018, it means in two years you would have a brand new car *then*, vs. if you do the VW buyback now, in two years your new car will be two years old, and all those miles that could have been on the TDI are on it, instead.

 

[Jimmy Coconuts]

I'm at 63k miles on my 2013 Wagon and drive 60 miles a day (summers off).
VW has approved me for $25,500 in total buyback. Minus my current loan balance, I'll be getting a check for $15,500.
If I hold the car for another year my loan balance will be less and I'll get back around $20k. If I hold on to it for the full 2 year I'll get back around $25k assuming I don't go over the miles.
My concern/question: What are the risks in continuing to drive it? The HPFP repair scares me. I bought white bottle power service diesel clean today.
It would be nice to drive the car at least another year for essentially free. BUT if driving it puts me at risk for something major, I'll probably get rid of it. I also think a diesel durango is coming in the fall.

I like where this is going. It would be better if your car was a 2012 vs a 2013, but it is what it is. I suspect water in the fuel is the real enemy of these hpfps (but who really knows), so your use of White bottle is a perfect pair of tits.

Even without the white bottle treatment, if you figure a 5% (probably an overestimate) probability of your hpfp grenading, multiply that by the cost to fix, say $6000. If that figure is more than what you'll save by driving the car for 2 years, then turn it in asap.

I'll be driving one of mine until 2018

 

[ExTdiGuy]

Interesting way to look at it guys.

Didn't I read it correctly that as long as I don't go over 12,500 miles the value wont drop?

I do drive about 1200 a month BUT I work education and have the summers off.

I'll have to look into what's new and what I like right now. Financially speaking, keeping it for 2 years is the best option baring not encountering a major repair.

I can see if borrowing my dad's 2001 yukon xl (suburban) is an option. Gets 14mpg though. Be around $300 a month in gas.

I thought about a short term lease take over around $325 a month. That would be throwing say $4,000 away to drive a car for 10-12 months where I could put that down on a new car and recoup a percentage when I sold it 7-10 years later.

If only Dodge had the diesel Durango out now. With my commute, that checks off the boxes I have regarding space for 6 and good MPG.

 

[PacCoastFwy923]

I truly believe driving is the most prudent course. By the time December 2018 rolls around, your replacement diesel will be (hopefully) on the market, with all the first year bug worked out.

I'm not following my own advice. I took my wife's Passat out for its monthly drive (parked, awaiting buyback), and I really like the thing. It's strong, torquey, and roomy, and still under warranty with 22,000 miles on it.

But she wanted out for a variety of reasons, and I depend on my wagon and the roof rack, and had knee and ankle issues that we're making a manual transmission not a great choice. But really, the smart thing to do would have been keeping that car.

My wife's new replacement car is going to be three model years old and have 30,000 miles on it come the TDI buyback deadline, worth a lot less than we paid for it, whereas her Passat mileage would be inconsequential, as the turn-in value would be right where it is today, which is incidentally more than we paid for it nearly two years ago.

That's a pretty good deal.

 

[NRU73]

We debated keeping the car. I'll be honest, I've been nervous of the HPFP failure since the day I brought the car home 4 years ago.
Between that and the intercooler water issue during cold rainy, but above freezing weather, and that made the decision for me.

We'll take the money from VW and buy a used car for half what we are getting to drive for at least a year. I'm interested in the GTI next fall with the Virtual dash.

 

[iadubber]

If mine was still under a warranty I'd still drive it. It's not, so it's parked.

 

[ExTdiGuy]

The GF and I are driving from Norcal to inland LA this weekend and likely taking my car

Her's is a leased Audi with new tires and a mileage limit.

More I read the more I freak out about driving mine. Drives great and 90% of the miles are freeway. Talked to a friend this morning and decided to likely go 3-6 months then turning it in. Might get a Prius V for the room for 4 adults and 2 dogs.

An electric would be great for my commute. If I could find a lease take over for $350 or less that's an electric or hybrid, I'd save $$ in gas. I'm about $200+ a month in gas I think.

 

[crak]

If mine was still under a warranty I'd still drive it. It's not, so it's parked.

I had not thought about that. My A3 is at 52000 and already purchased a replacement car. I think I might start driving my 2014 328d to work instead.

 

[Rico567]

These risks have been discussed at length in other threads, and I think everything has been covered here. The risk of a total loss by wreck was pretty much eliminated months back, when that particular window was closed. Now one can wreck the car, claim the insurance settlement, and also get the restitution amouint for that particular vehicle...so no big risk there.
Second, there is the risk, amply discussed in this thread, of having to pay for some major repair. As several contributors to this thread have stated, keeping the car and driving it for two years will represent a significant enough savings to offset some major repairs. We've driven many cars that were bought used with no warranty, and have never (that's in 50 years and 15 cars) suffered a catastrophic breakdown resulting in four-figure repair bills. So, risk, but it's still not that great.
The third item isn't really a "risk." Some have made much of driving their cars over the allotted mileage per month and having their buyback reduced on that account. Suffice it to say that this is completely misconceived. The cost per mile of driving one's Dieselgatemobile is FAR less than any new car one might go out and buy using the proceeds from buyback, around 5 cents a mile, I think.
So, most of the risk involved in keeping the car until the end of the buyback period is ephemeral. Our plan is to keep ours, file for buyback in the summer of 2018, and go for a turn-in date as late in the year as is practical.

 

[Armby]

These risks have been discussed at length in other threads, and I think everything has been covered here. The risk of a total loss by wreck was pretty much eliminated months back, when that particular window was closed. Now one can wreck the car, claim the insurance settlement, and also get the restitution amouint for that particular vehicle...so no big risk there.
Second, there is the risk, amply discussed in this thread, of having to pay for some major repair. As several contributors to this thread have stated, keeping the car and driving it for two years will represent a significant enough savings to offset some major repairs. We've driven many cars that were bought used with no warranty, and have never (that's in 50 years and 15 cars) suffered a catastrophic breakdown resulting in four-figure repair bills. So, risk, but it's still not that great.
The third item isn't really a "risk." Some have made much of driving their cars over the allotted mileage per month and having their buyback reduced on that account. Suffice it to say that this is completely misconceived. The cost per mile of driving one's Dieselgatemobile is FAR less than any new car one might go out and buy using the proceeds from buyback, around 5 cents a mile, I think.
So, most of the risk involved in keeping the car until the end of the buyback period is ephemeral. Our plan is to keep ours, file for buyback in the summer of 2018, and go for a turn-in date as late in the year as is practical.

Very good summary. I think the problem is when people see a cold hard equation that tells them how much they will receive (eg a little bit less if they go over the 1042/month mileage) they get irrational because they can't compare that to other outcomes that are not expressed in certainties (e.g. new car depreciation) even though they are not to their advantage.

 

[ExTdiGuy]

I understand the math and logic in savings over driving it 2 year over the cost of a major repair (essentially free vs $6000 repair).
However, that's only if the repair is needed in 2 years. If the HPFP goes out in a month, I'd be SOL and would have encountered none of that 'savings over the 2 years remaining'.

 

[Sprockets]

I was in no rush to turn mine in, my only motivation was to get a new(er) car. I was hoping to wait until 2018 models came out. Then, three months ago, my HPFP went out driving home from the office one night. Fortunately, it was covered under warranty (extended HPFP warranty, but just barely), but it freaked me out enough to park this car ASAP. I was without the car for nearly two weeks, so that actually benefited me in terms of not crossing into the next buyback adjustment bracket.

Then, my HVAC began acting up about two months ago. My fan only works on 4. Then winter hit, so I can only run my heat on 4, 0-3 are all "off". Strange problem, and I don't really have time to dig into and repair it myself. I've just dealt with it, and curse it every day.

It's taken a while to find the right replacement, but I have now, and am hoping to take delivery by the weekend. Can't wait to park the Golf! I truly fear for it breaking down and ruining my buyback. I'll just have to keep the battery trickle charged until 01/12.

 

[Armby]

I understand the math and logic in savings over driving it 2 year over the cost of a major repair (essentially free vs $6000 repair).
However, that's only if the repair is needed in 2 years. If the HPFP goes out in a month, I'd be SOL and would have encountered none of that 'savings over the 2 years remaining'.

That would be a bummer but the probability is infinitesimal. Also there would be nothing stopping your from continuing to drive depreciation free after you did the fix. Or if that happenned you could consider a cheapo fix that has been discussed in other threads that would get you to the dealer for a buy-back

 

[TdiSandiego]

If you are out of warranty on the HPFP and continue to drive you are an idiot. My 09 failed 2 times and my 12 1 time. 09 first time at 56,000 and the 12 the first one at 66,000. If it fails and is out of warranty, the parts alone are almost $5000. Just for the parts!! I have myself and 5 friends that all have these cars and only 1 out of the 6 of us has not had a failure. And I had 3 total on 2 cars. I drove the 12 till 119,900 and it has been sitting waiting for the buyback ever since. The 09 is out of warranty and has been sitting for 10 months.

 

[ExTdiGuy]

Mine is a 2013 which I don't think is covered under the HPFP extended warranty.

 

[JettaJedi]

Mine is a 2013 which I don't think is covered under the HPFP extended warranty.

Right, and that coupled with fact we have 50k on the 2013 and need the 50k service, and 4 new tires is what put us over to do the buyback soon column. No sense spending 500-800 on a car you will get rid of in at the max year and a half.

 

[Mr. Furious]

Right, and that coupled with fact we have 50k on the 2013 and need the 50k service, and 4 new tires is what put us over to do the buyback soon column. No sense spending 500-800 on a car you will get rid of in at the max year and a half.

Lucky you. I've already had to replace my tires and my battery since there's no end to the delays in sight. My registration expires in February, too, so that will be another $370 in registration and property taxes.