That chart is based on avoidance and competitiveness. Basically you get far less bang for you buck if you convert limited H2 to efuels. We're already using ~10B kg/yr of H2. Obviously any H2 we produce would go to offset that first before investing CAPEX in efuel facilities.
Pretty good summary from Chat GBT.
eFuels rank relatively lower on the hydrogen ladder due to the following reasons:
- Efficiency losses: The production of eFuels involves multiple conversion steps, including the generation of hydrogen from renewable sources and its subsequent conversion to synthetic fuels. Each step in this process incurs energy losses, making the overall process less efficient compared to direct use of hydrogen or other energy sources.
- Competition from alternative technologies: eFuels face competition from other renewable energy technologies such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen fuel cells. These technologies offer more direct and efficient ways to convert renewable energy into usable power for transportation, reducing the need for eFuels in certain contexts.
- Infrastructure challenges: The widespread adoption of eFuels would require significant infrastructure development, including the establishment of production facilities, distribution networks, and refueling stations. These infrastructure requirements can present challenges in terms of scalability, cost, and compatibility with existing energy systems.
These factors contribute to eFuels being considered relatively lower on the hydrogen ladder compared to other applications of hydrogen.
Then look at what a kWh gets you in a BEV vs eFuel'd ICE. The conversion efficiency of electricity => H2 => eFuel is < 50%. And you get ~70% fewer miles per kWh in ICE vs BEV. So 1kWh will get you >3 miles in a BEV vs < 0.5 miles in an ICE.
According to "carculator," a European LCA model (
https://carculator.psi.ch/), synthetic gasoline has very high energy requirements, but synthetic diesel doesn't, at least if the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) method is used to make the eDiesel:
"carculator" energy consumption @2025
@ Norway mix @midsize @default battery @200,000 km UL (carculator default parameters) @100% syn diesel (eFTD)
BEV - 2.545 MJ/km (+0.555 MJ/km road wear) (98 g CO2e/km)
ICEV-d - 3.274 MJ/km (+0.523 MJ/km road wear) (73 g CO2e/km)
ICEV-p - 12.742 MJ/km (+0.518 MJ/km road wear) (218 g CO2e/km)
[ICEV-d = diesel ICEV; ICEV-p = petrol ICEV (i.e., gasoline)]
The FT synthesis is highly exothermic which doesn't appear to be taken into account in the general discussion about eFuels. The excess heat can be reused in the process which reduces the external energy requirements.
So, the eDiesel in this case has lower GHG emissions, which needs to be taken into account in the calculations.
Also, eDIesel can use existing fuel distribution infrastructures. An entirely new "refueling" infrastructure is required for BEV.