real world EVs review

CanadianALH

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Canada
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2002 Jetta 5spd 2006 Jetta DSG (wifes)
I've read that Hornets are not selling well at all.
Thought maybe it was going to be a budget sport suv with some tuning and sleeper potential. Learned it revs to 5.5K lol and by the sounds of it, it may be a turd. And its far from buget. For a third of the price I could have a tdi that KILLS it in a race and does double the FE.
 

El Dobro

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turbobrick240

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maine
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IndigoBlueWagon

TDIClub Enthusiast, Principal IDParts, Vendor , w/
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South of Boston
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'97 Passat, '99.5 Golf, '02 Jetta Wagon, '15 GSW
EV related: I've seen two news stories in the last 24 hours: SolarEdge stock fell 30% yesterday with a demand warning. Orsted, a wind power power component manufacturer is experiencing project cancellations. The latest ones are in NJ, causing a $4B writedown. Both companies cite weakening demand due to higher financing costs.

This makes me wonder if similar forces are at play in the EV world, both for manufacturers and consumers. Manufacturers are trying to avoid high interest carrying costs for investments in EV capacity, and consumers are feeling more pricing pressure because of high financing costs for new EVs.

Auto manufacturers are feeling the high auto payment pressures for ICE vehicles as well: Sales of Ram 3500s have dropped while inventories are up. The average sale price of a new Ram 3500 is around $82K, which is pretty staggering, at least to me. And they're feeling it on the half ton pickups as well.
 

tikal

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Studies vary, but between 2018 and 2022, the average annual income of U.S. EV buyers was around $150,000 a year. (The median household income in the U.S. for 2022 for $74,000). Most EV buying households had 2 cars while shopping for an EV. When polled, what would the EV buyer have purchased if not an EV with a rebate? A hybrid, a fuel-efficient vehicle, or the same EV at full price.

Rebates are certainly good for EV sales (and fans), but we are largely subsidizing buyers in higher income brackets to purchase a vehicle that (a) They would have purchased anyway, or (b) Would have purchased a fuel efficient vehicle. This second part is important for those making an environmental (rather than market) argument about rebates, as the total waste emissions are not greatly changed. Additionally, many EV owners with short commutes (perfect EV scenario) or who are buying an EV as a second or third car, are not driving enough miles to offset the energy and emissions used in production of the car. Their total contribution to environmental damage would have been lower had they not been enticed by a rebate to buy an additional car (or if they drove it enough to offset the environmental cost of production).

An older UC-Davis study found that buyers who have incomes in the top 20% of all taxpayers are claiming 90% percent of federal EV tax credits. As Robert Teglia remarks in a NYT article, "The incentives are, in effect, subsidizing my luxury." Income caps on rebates prevents some of the highest earners from using public funds to offset the cost of their EV, but even after Jan 1, we have to ask if using taxpayer funds to help the wealthy buy an EV is ethical, especially when it's not even environmentally effective.


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/09/business/energy-environment/biden-electric-cars-cost.html
https://haas.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/WP262.pdf
https://www.nber.org/papers/w25771
Your posts, links and related comments have been very illuminating and holistic. Very appreciated!

I believe many people, including people with TDIs and other ICE fuel efficient vehicles want to do their part in lessening their environmental footprint. In this regard and, economically speaking, an EV, is a lower priority luxury item for this very large segment of the population that makes less than $150k/year. With the current overall situation of the world, the numbers and circumstances just do not add up yet for an exponential EV growth in my view.

In the meantime keep doing the three R's + repairing what you have, and it is going to make a difference in your conscience and in our planet.
 

hskrdu

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Maryland and New England
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2003 Golf GLS 4D 5M, 2015 GSW SE 6M
Your posts, links and related comments have been very illuminating and holistic. Very appreciated!

I believe many people, including people with TDIs and other ICE fuel efficient vehicles want to do their part in lessening their environmental footprint. In this regard and, economically speaking, an EV, is a lower priority luxury item for this very large segment of the population that makes less than $150k/year. With the current overall situation of the world, the numbers and circumstances just do not add up yet for an exponential EV growth in my view. In the meantime keep doing the three R's + repairing what you have, and it is going to make a difference in your conscience and in our planet.
Thanks tikal- I agree 100% on the three R's. I would only add that (as I said in post #2006) I fully expect EV sales to rise, for a variety of reasons, and that I don't associate increasing sales with an argument "for" or "against" EVs. Rebates, increased interest, and warnings that new ICE vehicles will no longer be sold all contribute to EV sales. If you ban sales of new ICE vehicles in a location, we expect EV sales will skyrocket in that area- but what does this tell us other than governments have the power to significantly influence the market, for better or worse?

This thread will continue with posts about rising EV sales, which will be read as proof that EVs are freely embraced by the public as the platform of the future, followed by posts about dropping EV sales, lower profit, or reduced EV production as an argument that EVs face significant hurdles. I would suggest that:
(1) Sales data only gets us so far in the larger discussion;
(2) EV Rebates (as currently structured) are highly questionable in a number of ways;
(3) The focus on tailpipe emissions and new EVs is shortsighted compared to overall product environmental impact, and
(4) We (the NA buying public) would be better off asking for reasonable emissions parameters and a free market where a wide variety of platforms and engines could compete, fostered by new ideas and industry innovation.
 

gearheadgrrrl

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Part of this is the sensationalism that drives much of the news biz and makes me lots of $$$... Being retired, I spend my weekdays messing around with projects and managing my stocks. It never ceases to amaze me how some tiny barely consequential news stores will send the stock market up or down, giving me a chance to snipe in and buy stocks at discount or dump overvalued stocks at a profit. The news biz needs "action" to keep the viewer share up and the ad dollars coming in, so they'll hype up a crisis or make one up if no crisis are available.

Thus a slowdown in EV and solar/wind sales is "news". The news media conveniently ignores the fact that the markets for EVs and clean energy are overheated and a correction was overdue. The signals were there, but you had to look for them- The backorders for EVs ballooned because many buyers ordered several EVs and then actually took the first one that was delivered, and at 0% interest there was no shortage of rich people willing to invest in clean energy for the tax breaks, environmental cred, and maybe a profit someday. But the demand for clean energy is still there, and while the rich investors have backed off, locally here Xcel Energy is still seeking permits for a couple gigawatts more wind energy and a billion or better $$$ for power lines to move it.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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The news media conveniently ignores the fact that the markets for EVs and clean energy are overheated and a correction was overdue.
Not in the stories I've read. Authors say the drop in sales and company stocks is not surprising in the current interest rate market.

But the demand for clean energy is still there, and while the rich investors have backed off, locally here Xcel Energy is still seeking permits for a couple gigawatts more wind energy and a billion or better $$$ for power lines to move it.
Until those projects are postponed or canceled, just like the wind projects in NJ. Or the Big 3 battery plants that are getting canceled or mothballed.

The experience the US had with artificially low interest rates during the pandemic made for some faulty logic and planning for development and new resources. Now that the rate environment has normalized, what looked possible a year or two ago isn't any longer. The same environment is now causing home prices and sales volumes to fall. Somewhat painful, perhaps, but not unhealthy. Reason and logic are coming back.
 

turbobrick240

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I don't know if the interest rate environment is normalized at the moment. It seems to have swung from one extreme to the other. Hopefully it's on a path to normalization. Looks that way to me.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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I don't know if the interest rate environment is normalized at the moment. It seems to have swung from one extreme to the other. Hopefully it's on a path to normalization. Looks that way to me.
Not extreme at all. Current rates are right around a median historically. I'm sure many others here are old enough to remember rates in the high teens in the early 80s. Those were extreme. The mortgage on our first home had a 14% rate. We were thrilled when we were able to refinance it to 9% a few years after purchase.
 

gearheadgrrrl

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IBW, I think we pretty much agree. I too am old enough to remember the early 80s when a bond broker up the street from my workplace had a Corvette out front with "15%" fake race numbers on the side. Double digit interest really tweaks the whole economy out of shape, 5% is dam near normal.
 

oilhammer

Certified Volkswagen Nut & Vendor
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outside St Louis, MO
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There are just too many to list....
Winners and losers both with high interest rates. If you have money to lend, you're a winner. If you are the borrower, not so much. If you are somewhat in the middle, you can weather the storm without much difference. A lot of this depends on what stage in life you are, and that normalcy seems to be changing anyway. Lots of 35 year old "kids" living in their parent's basements.
 

El Dobro

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EV related: I've seen two news stories in the last 24 hours: SolarEdge stock fell 30% yesterday with a demand warning. Orsted, a wind power power component manufacturer is experiencing project cancellations. The latest ones are in NJ, causing a $4B writedown. Both companies cite weakening demand due to higher financing costs.

This makes me wonder if similar forces are at play in the EV world, both for manufacturers and consumers. Manufacturers are trying to avoid high interest carrying costs for investments in EV capacity, and consumers are feeling more pricing pressure because of high financing costs for new EVs.

Auto manufacturers are feeling the high auto payment pressures for ICE vehicles as well: Sales of Ram 3500s have dropped while inventories are up. The average sale price of a new Ram 3500 is around $82K, which is pretty staggering, at least to me. And they're feeling it on the half ton pickups as well.
With Orstead, there was a public outcry against them, because they were considered the ones that were killing the whales and dolphins in the area.
 

turbobrick240

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Not extreme at all. Current rates are right around a median historically. I'm sure many others here are old enough to remember rates in the high teens in the early 80s. Those were extreme. The mortgage on our first home had a 14% rate. We were thrilled when we were able to refinance it to 9% a few years after purchase.
I consider a 6086% increase in rates in a single year (2022) to be pretty extreme. Sure, 5% doesn't seem too bad if you compare it to the highest rates ever. But the 15 year average is .9% , and the 25 year average is 1.9%.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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I was commenting on the rate itself, not how fast it increased. And rates have been crazy low pretty consistently since '08. But if you look back further rates in the 5-6% range are pretty common. 25 years takes us to 1998, when the rate was right around where it is today.

My point is that having a mortgage with a 6% interest rate, or an auto loan with a 10% rate is not beyond reason. It just feels like it now because rates were kept so low for so long, for one reason or another (recession, COVID, political pressures, whatever).
 

turbobrick240

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I definitely wouldn't want to pay 10% interest on an auto loan. Especially now that typical financing is 5 or more years. It would be nice if the fed can get the rate back down to 2-3% over the next 18 months or so. But I understand the need to keep inflation in check.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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I definitely wouldn't want to pay 10% interest on an auto loan. Especially now that typical financing is 5 or more years. It would be nice if the fed can get the rate back down to 2-3% over the next 18 months or so. But I understand the need to keep inflation in check.
Last time I had an auto loan was 2006. Life is better without any auto loans.
 

oilhammer

Certified Volkswagen Nut & Vendor
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outside St Louis, MO
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There are just too many to list....
I've purchased some new cars with cash... new car smell is better once you've worked hard and saved up for a while. But the prices now, even adjusted for income, seem to have gone off the deep end. Mainly because the affordable stuff is just gone.
 

kjclow

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A lot of EV buyers are probably delaying their purchases until Jan. so they can get the point of sale rebate. Auto inventory is also building across the spectrum- ICE and EV.
I'm not waiting on the rebate system to change. I'm waiting on my JSW to die. Then we'll have to decide if we really need two vehicles for retirement and what fits our lifestyle best. Our needs are fairly simple. Enough room for us for 90+% of the driving. Ability to either fit two bikes inside or a tailer hitch to attach the bike rack. Ability to have room for the grandkids for the ~10% of the time we would have to haul them without trading cars with my daughter. We also want something that will give us 5-600 miles per tank/charge.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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I'm not waiting on the rebate system to change. I'm waiting on my JSW to die. Then we'll have to decide if we really need two vehicles for retirement and what fits our lifestyle best. Our needs are fairly simple. Enough room for us for 90+% of the driving. Ability to either fit two bikes inside or a tailer hitch to attach the bike rack. Ability to have room for the grandkids for the ~10% of the time we would have to haul them without trading cars with my daughter. We also want something that will give us 5-600 miles per tank/charge.
You didn't mention price.
 

kjclow

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Whether or not you choose to believe it, auto inventories have been rising all year. Pretty much across the board. It is possible for both sales and inventory to rise simultaneously.

Without inventory, it's an uphill battle for car sales to increase. In my 50 years of driving and car buying, I've never ordered a new car. I've always taken one off the lot. We drive by the local toyota dealer at least weekly. It's been interesting to see them going from a lot so full, you just about couldn't walk through the lot to less than 6 vehicles. In October, the lot is finally starting to look like there's a reason for the salespeople to get paid.
 

kjclow

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Auto manufacturers are feeling the high auto payment pressures for ICE vehicles as well: Sales of Ram 3500s have dropped while inventories are up. The average sale price of a new Ram 3500 is around $82K, which is pretty staggering, at least to me. And they're feeling it on the half ton pickups as well.
That's $82k for a middle trim level probably without the Cummins diesel. For the 2500 and 3500, it pretty easy to push the msrp over $100k.
 

kjclow

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You didn't mention price.
Haven't decided on price yet. I'm one of those buyers. I'll pay for what I decide I want in the vehicle. Doesn't mean that I end up paying sticker though. I think the only car I've ever bought at sticker was our 2000 tdi beetle. Oh, and everything sitting in the driveway today is paid for.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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I hear you. When I bought my IBW I cross shopped against a Toyota Matrix, Subaru WRX, Audi A4 Avant, and BMW X5 which was, at that time, available with a manual transmission. The prices ranged from under $20K to over $40K. One appeal of the BMW was the GVW was 6002 lbs., which meant I could write it off (company car) in 2 years.
 

turbobrick240

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The Mustang Mach E might be piling up on dealer lots, but Ford had much better results with F150 Lightning sales in October.

 
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