real world EVs review

[Daemon64]

how come the answer isn't to just use the incredible abundance of energy we're flooded with?

Conservation with no deprivation Win-Win

Ridiculously huge infrastructure requirements. You're attempting to change billions of peoples uses, and vehicles. It will take 50yrs or greater.

 

[turbodieseldyke]

I always pictured you driving a tesla or one of those smart cars though.

I'll picture it when he changes his name to volthammer.

 

[nwdiver]

Ridiculously huge infrastructure requirements. You're attempting to change billions of peoples uses, and vehicles. It will take 50yrs or greater.

Allow me to introduce you to this amazing mathematic feature known as 'exponential growth'



Why build new cars that can't take advantage of this bonanza of clean and often free energy? Why increase the investment needed for grid storage?

And another feature of economics just as incredible... economies of scale. Turns out the more you build the cheaper it get and the cheaper it gets the more you build and the more you build the cheaper it gets and the cheaper it gets the more you build......

 

[benIV]

It really is a religion. lol.

 

[nwdiver]

It really is a religion. lol.

If 'math' is 'religion'.... doesn't that render each word meaningless?

War is peace, freedom is slavery and ignorance is strength too?

 

[Daemon64]

Allow me to introduce you to this amazing mathematic feature known as 'exponential growth'



Why build new cars that can't take advantage of this bonanza of clean and often free energy? Why increase the investment needed for grid storage?

And another feature of economics just as incredible... economies of scale. Turns out the more you build the cheaper it get and the cheaper it gets the more you build and the more you build the cheaper it gets and the cheaper it gets the more you build......

I already understand economies of scale and growth. But here is the REALITY. There are 291million registered cars in the road in this country. 13-16m new vehicles are sold each year. It would take around 20years at 100% market share of EVs per year. Even by best estimates EVs might break 50% market share per year in 10yrs. That means 30yrs atleast, if not much more. That's if there is no hostile counter forces? Oh wait there are tons. I am very much a realist.

EVs while they are interesting, novel, do have benefits, and are in a strong position. Are NOT enough for climate issues. Too little to late for pie in the sky dreams. Need solutions today, not 30yrs from now.

 

[oilhammer]

A religion... or a disease. The line is so close. Entertaining, at least.

 

[benIV]

A religion... or a disease. The line is so close. Entertaining, at least.

Scientists reduce belief in God by shutting down the brain's medial frontal cortex

New research involving a psychologist from the University of York has revealed for the first time that both belief in God and prejudice towards immigrants ...

www.psypost.org

.

probably more right than you know. I assume it’s the same for global warming or anything. Gotta shut down parts of your brain then you’ll believe lol

 

[J_dude]

Scientists reduce belief in God by shutting down the brain's medial frontal cortex

New research involving a psychologist from the University of York has revealed for the first time that both belief in God and prejudice towards immigrants ...

www.psypost.org

.

probably more right than you know. I assume it’s the same for global warming or anything. Gotta shut down parts of your brain then you’ll believe lol

Whoa that’s sketch. But not at all new, MKUltra was only one of MANY such experiments. They’re just pushing boundaries even more now.
I find it amusing how they neatly put people who believe in God and people who hate immigrants all in the same category...

 

[turbobrick240]

The US has overtaken Germany as the second largest EV market after China:

US EV Sales Up 79% YoY in Q1 2023 Helped by Tax Credit Subsidy - Counterpoint

www.counterpointresearch.com

 

[benIV]

Whoa that’s sketch. But not at all new, MKUltra was only one of MANY such experiments. They’re just pushing boundaries even more now.
I find it amusing how they neatly put people who believe in God and people who hate immigrants all in the same category...

i guess they were trying to establish the long believed connection between being a leftist and having a damaged brain.

 

[turbobrick240]

US EV sales on pace for 1 million+ this year!

Chart: EV sales on pace to break 1 million in US this year

Electric vehicles are surging in popularity as the Biden admin pushes for rapid uptake, but EVs still made up less than 10% of new car sales last quarter.

www.canarymedia.com

 

[pkhoury]

What I think of this thread...

 

[Daemon64]

US EV sales on pace for 1 million+ this year!

Chart: EV sales on pace to break 1 million in US this year

Electric vehicles are surging in popularity as the Biden admin pushes for rapid uptake, but EVs still made up less than 10% of new car sales last quarter.

www.canarymedia.com

I mean thats all good. But like:

Are EV sales declining? Electrifying the car market may be getting harder. Here's why

EV sales hit a speed bump. The share of Americans who are unlikely to consider buying an EV has grown amid stricter subsidy rules, dearth of chargers.

www.usatoday.com

"Although 43% of U.S. adults said they might consider buying an EV in the future, 41% unequivocally say they would not, Gallup said.

Only about 4% of Americans currently own an EV, Gallup said, and 12% are seriously considering purchasing one. "

This is more or less what i was talking about with "counter-forces"... so like, there will be a point of really strong growth, up until you hit critical mass / market saturation and you've gotten all the people who said they would do it, or would consider it, and then you will have a very large contingent thats like naaaaa, not happening, ever. And don't forget the people like me who have, or will get burned and are like naaaa, see you later, not again ever or for a long time.

 

[J_dude]

Interesting how people can be so easily influenced though...

 

[nwdiver]

I already understand economies of scale and growth.

... so why aren't you applying that knowledge to EVs?

918k EVs were sold in the US in 2022. That number is doubling every ~3.5 years. How many years until it reaches 50% of vehicle sales? That's how the math generally works. ~10% => 50% takes as much time as 50% to ~100%. Do the math. It's not 50 years.

No one is saying ICE is going away completely. I saw a guy riding a horse a few weeks ago.

 

[turbobrick240]

I mean thats all good. But like:

Are EV sales declining? Electrifying the car market may be getting harder. Here's why

EV sales hit a speed bump. The share of Americans who are unlikely to consider buying an EV has grown amid stricter subsidy rules, dearth of chargers.

www.usatoday.com

"Although 43% of U.S. adults said they might consider buying an EV in the future, 41% unequivocally say they would not, Gallup said.

Only about 4% of Americans currently own an EV, Gallup said, and 12% are seriously considering purchasing one. "

This is more or less what i was talking about with "counter-forces"... so like, there will be a point of really strong growth, up until you hit critical mass / market saturation and you've gotten all the people who said they would do it, or would consider it, and then you will have a very large contingent thats like naaaaa, not happening, ever. And don't forget the people like me who have, or will get burned and are like naaaa, see you later, not again ever or for a long time.

Q: Are EV sales declining?
A: No

Most of the EV early adopters in the US bought Teslas, and as a result haven't experienced your frustrations with lousy network reliability and availability. The balance are a relatively small number of CCS EV owners- many of whom knew what they were getting into by being an early adopter reliant upon poor DC fast charging networks. You never really know if those polls are worth a tinkers damn anyhow.

 

[Daemon64]

... so why aren't you applying that knowledge to EVs?

918k EVs were sold in the US in 2022. That number is doubling every ~3.5 years. How many years until it reaches 50% of vehicle sales? That's how the math generally works. ~10% => 50% takes as much time as 50% to ~100%. Do the math. It's not 50 years.

No one is saying ICE is going away completely. I saw a guy riding a horse a few weeks ago.

Because you're wrong....

If everyone wanted to buy and EV and sales were doubling every 3 years.
then it would be 1m this year, 2m in 2026, 4m in 2029, 8m, in 2032, and all 14m in 2035 --> so even by that math thats only 29m / 291m cars or around 10% of the total vehicles in the country. It would take another 20 years at 100% EV sales to replace the remaining vehicles or 30 years absolute minimum.

But you forget human nature, there will be a point where 40 - 50% of the market just doesn't want it, or wont accept it, which drags that curve out either indefinitely or much longer to closer to 50yrs atleast.

But given all that math, its all useless -->

Emissions of EVs

Sheet1 This is only 16.4% of the total greenhouse gas emissions for the country 110,12000,grams,pounds to us tons 384,12000,453.592,2000 CO2 Output new EV,new gas,EV,Gas Cars,US Tons of CO2,Actual Reduction VS 2023 number,Actual % of Total emissions current,0,0,11640000,279360000,1435933262,16....

docs.google.com

Shown in this Detailed document i put together for you, the basic end statement is, if we replaced ALL 291 million cars with EVs we would reduce total emissions in the USA by 11.5% but it takes us until 2051 to get there at BEST scenario.

and even if the grid was perfectly clean the maximum number you get is 16.4% of the total US emissions. ( passenger cars only account for 16.4% of total emissions the part of transportations 28% is something else )

The far easier place to target is the grids total 25% of emissions as there are a limited number of power generation locations. but hey what do i know. I can only do the math out when other people talk in generalizations.

 

[nwdiver]

and even if the grid was perfectly clean the maximum number you get is 16.4% of the total US emissions.

Did I not say 'vehicle sales' not all vehicles? Yeah. Existing ICE is going to be around for a few decades. But even the ~291M number is misleading. The more important number is passenger miles. How many of those 291M are weekend cars? 2nd cars? Old trucks that run to the dump once a week and might see 100 miles/yr?

And for the 3rd time. More EVs makes it easier to clean the grid. Reducing curtailment of existing solar and wind makes adding more solar and wind more feasible. What part of that don't you understand? Why waste resources manufacturing cars that are unable to soak up curtailment?

I have one simple question that I don't believe has been answered. Why build new ICE? Why even wait until 2035? Why would we waste resources on new ICE in 2023? If the argument is that new cars are a waste of money. Why build new ICE? Plenty of used ICE if CCS failed you and you for some reason don't want to go with NACS yet. Why build new ICE?

 

[turbobrick240]

At the current rate of US EV sales growth, there is a doubling every 18 months, not every three years. That won't continue indefinitely, obviously, as the adoption S curve shows.

 

[Daemon64]

Did I not say 'vehicle sales' not all vehicles? Yeah. Existing ICE is going to be around for a few decades. But even the ~291M number is misleading. The more important number is passenger miles. How many of those 291M are weekend cars? 2nd cars? Old trucks that run to the dump once a week and might see 100 miles/yr?

And for the 3rd time. More EVs makes it easier to clean the grid. Reducing curtailment of existing solar and wind makes adding more solar and wind more feasible. What part of that don't you understand? Why waste resources manufacturing cars that are unable to soak up curtailment?

More EVs makes that easier?? Not even a little. People are always motivated by one thing majorly --> Their wallets. The higher the price of electricity due to higher prices of oil and gas, the more you will see the consumer pressure for CHEAPER alternatives, and if that happens to be solar, wind, nuclear then that will take adoption. Power companies are pushed by the same thing, that's why there was such a HUGE influx of natural gas plants, they became much cheaper to own and operate for a long time.

But that all comes w/ caveats, due to the intermittent nature of wind and solar, Peaker plants have to stay online for the demand curve, until it becomes much cheaper to install wind + solar AND big emphasis on AND storage together, it will not be mainstage over the alternative. UNLESS the govt regulates the other things out existence, OR subsidizes the crap out of it.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

This may not have been true for early adopters, but now it seems that a lot of EV sales are tied to pricing and the level of incentives offered. Sales spiked late last year when Tesla, Ford, and GM dropped prices. And they spiked again when incentives were increased early this year. Now that incentives are less for many cars, it appears that sales are falling a little.

Honestly, I'm not sure how much the cost of fuel plays into the decision to buy an EV. Remember we're on a forum where members are, with all due respect, obsessed with fuel economy. Most people aren't. I've always maintained that if you asked 10 people at a filling station how many MPGs their vehicle gets, 8 or 9 wouldn't have an answer. All people know is how many dollars worth of fuel they put in the vehicle, and how often. And some don't even know that.

Purchase price does matter, however. And I think, after the panic of car buying that took place during the pandemic, car buyers are becoming more price aware, especially those who finance their purchase, which is most people. Faced with buying $50 (or whatever) worth of fuel each week or taking on a big (sometimes over $1,000) car payment, people may op for continuing to buy the fuel.

I've posted here many times that getting rid of my MKIV TDIs and buying an EV for my daily driving would work for me. But why would I get rid of a low value car that costs about $.09/mile to run at current fuel prices to spend $40-50K on an EV? The payback simply isn't there. I think that's true for others, too, if they've bothered to do the math.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

I suspect the mix between IC and EV will ultimately be like the sales mix between gas and diesel in trucks- Back in the early 80s many truck makers completely discontinued gas engines in trucks from 2 tons on up, assuming diesels would permanently take over the market. Since then many of those truck makers have brought back gas engines as well as natural gas and E85 options. The Super Duty pickup sales are an excellent example, with diesel share up to around 75% at times but now down closer to 50%. So what we'll probably see is RV sales plateau at a certain point with IC engines never going away and more plug in hybrid, hydrogen, etc. options.

 

[oilhammer]

Some people are bad at math. And some people just want to try and pound an idealogy into other's heads, and all they're likely to end up with is a bunch of resentment, and a bunch of dented skulls.

 

[Daemon64]

I have one simple question that I don't believe has been answered. Why build new ICE? Why even wait until 2035? Why would we waste resources on new ICE in 2023? If the argument is that new cars are a waste of money. Why build new ICE? Plenty of used ICE if CCS failed you and you for some reason don't want to go with NACS yet. Why build new ICE?

I admit that I didn't see this question. This comes down to the individual user.

In my case I am tall so 6'3, and I do not fit in most passenger cars and the latest generation of A3/S3/RS3, is literally the only generation I fit in... like its comical in most cars like my head would go through the roof kinda deal, its nuts ( i have a longer torso than most ). So why new ICE? Simple --> Human nature -- I want it. Not everything is a decision based on resource conservation. A larger amount of people than we care to think just do not care. I care enough that I was looking at an RS3 --> which gets 33mpg in the 75MPH car and driver test vs. say an Audi RS6 Avant which would have been my next option, you know a twin turbo 4.0l V8 which only gets 21MPG at best case. So each of us has our own criteria of what is acceptable, and for me a small sports car that gets north of 30mpg sounds great to me. I would love have had been in a sports based diesel that gets closer to 40, but hey we can't always have everything that we want. If it was up to me, I'd be driving a manual diesel that gets 40mpg+ and can blow the doors off most things... but we cannot always have what we want.

 

[pkhoury]

... so why aren't you applying that knowledge to EVs?

918k EVs were sold in the US in 2022. That number is doubling every ~3.5 years. How many years until it reaches 50% of vehicle sales? That's how the math generally works. ~10% => 50% takes as much time as 50% to ~100%. Do the math. It's not 50 years.

No one is saying ICE is going away completely. I saw a guy riding a horse a few weeks ago.

I know ChatGPT is relatively new, but is it possible that Greta is just an AI bot?

 

[turbobrick240]

Let's try to keep the level of discourse here in the adult sphere.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Good points- For all their fanaticism the TSLA tribe isn't accomplishing much- One of the utilities calculated that the average Tesla is driven only 6000 miles a year, saving all of 150 gallons of fuel and the linked GHG their previous Prius sipped and belched. Meanwhile, I know a bunch of truckers who are shooting to improve their 18 wheelers MPG from the industry average 6 MPG to 9 MPG and beyond. Heck, some of them are beating 10 MPG and they drive over 100,000 miles a year, saving over 6000 gallons and the attendant GHGs! Most of these truckers aren't environmentalists, some of them are Trumpers- They save fuel to put more $$$ in their bank accounts. In the process, they're doing as much to prevent climate change with one truck running on plain old diesel as 40 tiresome Tesla fanatics with their own solar arrays and Powerwalls to assure renewable energy for their precious Teslas!

 

[turbobrick240]

Good points- For all their fanaticism the TSLA tribe isn't accomplishing much- One of the utilities calculated that the average Tesla is driven only 6000 miles a year, saving all of 150 gallons of fuel and the linked GHG their previous Prius sipped and belched. Meanwhile, I know a bunch of truckers who are shooting to improve their 18 wheelers MPG from the industry average 6 MPG to 9 MPG and beyond. Heck, some of them are beating 10 MPG and they drive over 100,000 miles a year, saving over 6000 gallons and the attendant GHGs! Most of these truckers aren't environmentalists, some of them are Trumpers- They save fuel to put more $$$ in their bank accounts. In the process, they're doing as much to prevent climate change with one truck running on plain old diesel as 40 tiresome Tesla fanatics with their own solar arrays and Powerwalls to assure renewable energy for their precious Teslas!

Actually, Tesla Model Ys, the world's top selling automobile, rack up more mileage (13k+ miles) annually than the average in the US:

Tesla Model Y Average Annual Mileage Is Higher Than US Vehicle Average

Tesla's 2021 Impact Report reveals interesting data, which indicates that an electric cars annual mileage might actually be above the average gas car.

insideevs-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[pkhoury]

Let's try to keep the level of discourse here in the adult sphere.

My mother actually purchased a Model Y, a few months before Brian Hague's passing. He actually went with her to the Tesla dealership to pick it up. She still has her Beetle TDI and her BMW 328d (but I'm not sure why). I drove a Tesla a few times. They're somewhat nice, but they're not for everyone, and certainly not for me. I'm 6'4, and I'm not super wild about the front seats. The Model Y has about as much adjustment as a Toyota. I do fit inside, but I'm more comfortable in a German car. Audi, VW, Mercedes, BMW - more adjustments. I felt like the seat sat too high up.

Also don't really like the idea of not moving if I let off the throttle. I'm so used to doing about 5mph in first at idle, 10mph in second, 15 in third, etc. I don't always drive in idle, but when I do, I like to keep moving. Yeah, I come to a complete stop in the Tesla. Or the regenerative braking is a little too extreme for me.

Then there's the fact of towing. NOBODY has any really good real world towing numbers on a Tesla or other EV. Like yesterday, I brought back a JSW my gf bought. So a JSW + used Uhaul tow dolly are what, about 3700 + 600 pounds, respectively? It was 112 miles on the way back, and according to ColorMFA (which is usually accurate the way I have it dialed in), it claimed I'd used 4.4 gallons of fuel. But I can't seem to get any ideas on what I'd get in a Tesla or other EV if I were towing the same kind of load, doing the same speeds (40-55mph average on rural roads), with the AC running full blast, while it's 90% humidity and 82 degrees outside. Even if I'm not towing cars, I'm in the process of moving, so I've been taking loads of storage, taking equipment to the new ranch, etc. Some things require the F-450. But I've made a lot of trips in my TDIs. I know for a fact there isn't a Supercharger nearby.

And actually.. I lied. I just looked it up on google maps. There IS a Supercharger nearby. Google says it's 38.3 miles away from the ranch. I don't have electricity myself yet (or any buildings), because I'm waiting on the co-op to set an install date. There's another supercharger that's quite a bit further away. That shows as 63 miles away from the new place. And I live about 50 miles from the new place. So I wonder how feasible this is - towing 3000 pounds of stuff at 55-70mph speed limits on rural roads and the Interstate, going about 50 miles, but towing that empty trailer back home, probably a little faster - 70-75, which are the posted highway speeds.... and assuming I wouldn't need to charge up, or if I did, how long it would take for a 120v charger to top off the car.

Mom uses a 120v charger for her Tesla, but she doesn't take it out every day. She also doesn't tow. Whereas I consistently dive about 40-70K miles a year.