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Panel predicts diesels could hit 20 percent of U.S. market by 2020

twigless

Veteran Member
Joined
Jan 30, 2007
Location
Florida
TDI
2000 Golf GLS TDI 5-speed, 2002 Jetta GLS TDI auto (wife's)
This is the most ambitious estimate I've heard so far... sounds great to me! I actually agree with these numbers. I think that their guesses on hybrids are pretty close to accurate as well. As standard gas vehicles get more fuel-saving items like DSG-type transmissions (vs traditional autobox), direct injection, cylinder deactivation, brake regeneration to power the alternator, better cD, etc, I think that the current appeal of hybrids will wane.

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http://www.autoweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080414/FREE/771344130/1530/FREE

Panel predicts diesels could hit 20 percent of U.S. market by 2020

By GREG MIGLIORE
About 20 percent of the vehicles sold in the United States could run on diesel fuels by the end of the next decade, a panel of auto executives said on Monday, April 14, at SAE World Congress in Detroit.

The panel also expects hybrid technologies to be in about 10 percent of vehicles by 2020 as consumers' thirst for fuel-sipping products continues, members said.

The figures were suggested by BorgWarner CEO Tim Manganello. Other panelists, including Ford product chief Derrick Kuzak and Ed Mantey, a Toyota engineering vice president, agreed with the forecast.

Manganello based his predictions on patterns in European markets, where consumers have made diesels popular.

"Europe is a leading indicator for powertrain technology," he said.

Meanwhile, Magna co-CEO Don Walker suggested there could be as many as 765,000 hybrids on U.S. roads by 2013, though he expects diesels and other technologies to ultimately win out with consumers.
 

n1das

TDIClub Enthusiast, Veteran Member
Joined
Jun 11, 2002
Location
Nashua, NH, USA
TDI
2014 BMW 535xd ///M-Sport, 2012 BMW X5 Xdrive35d, former 3x TDI owner
drwho said:
I hope this is true. Does not look encouraging in the short run right now with diesel prices exceeding gasoline. Maybe it is going to change.
Don't worry because it IS going to change. We're headed into gasoline season soon and gasoline will soon be right up where diesel is. Sit back and pass the popcorn because it's going to be a real screamer of a summer for the gas guzzlers!

The diesel vs. gasoline price spread has put some TDIers on the fence regarding whether to sell trade their TDI for a gasser. I suspect some will sell their TDIs and get into a gasser and then later wish they had held onto their TDI.

Not to worry. You're still ahead with your TDI right now.

The high fuel prices and the direction they're headed over the long term have me wanting to KEEP my TDIs (both of them). They are absolutely NOT for sale at ANY price. It would be foolish to get out of my TDIs based on fuel prices alone.
 

D_Bill

Veteran Member
Joined
Nov 13, 2006
Location
SE Pa
TDI
old_v1 - 01 jetta / old_v2 02 golf / new 13 jsw-6sp
self-serving industry

FWIW

The older I get the more I tend to ignore the ramblings of most and instead try to follow actions - seems to me at least more reasonable. So in that vein I am suspicious of oil industry actions that seem to become self serving. For example - oil industry : " we need tax breaks and big loop holes to fund exploration " reality : huge profits. Or oil industry : " we need to drill in the wilderness , offshore ( substitute any locale of your choosing here ) " reality : oil prices don't go down - rather oil profits go up.

So the reality that I believe is happening is that as previous "third world" countries are becoming industrialized the demand for oil will spiral upwards. IMHO we are on the right track by insisting on the most efficient auto ( high mpg and low pollution per mile ), yet the people that have the money will not come around quitely. I see fuel going to $5/gal this summer despite all the wailing and gnashing of teeth. However I don't believe that means that we should sacrifice the economy or environment. So no I don't think the oil industry should get access to wilderness areas - rather let's conserve . If we let them drill anywhere they want, they would just want to drill some more somewhere else, as they will always claim ( or manufacture ? ) a crisis to make us drop our standards/ideals. Instead, we should point out that by switching to ( bio ? - especially as its environment friendly ) diesel, what we have, would go all that much further. One way to do this would be to follow through with high mpg requirements for all vehicles and not counting pollution per gallon or parts per million but rather we should push for counting pollution( parts ) per mile.

So trying to get back on track - the idea of 20% sounds good but 40% would be much better.

And pushing for no oil industry involvement with biodiesel ( till it hits the filling station anyways - maybe with a fedl requirement that there be at least one pump per station ? or that all diesel gradually become more biodiesel like b5 this year, b10 next then b20 and so on ? ) would be another great step - at least IMHO.

Of course I'm preaching to the choir here - thanks for letting me ramble . . .
 

dayne66

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Joined
Feb 21, 2008
Location
The Island,BC
TDI
(TRADED)2006 Jetta TDI Package 3 (Cdn) 5 sp
2 outa 3 are TDIs here in Nanaimo

my daughter just did a 'count' here in the nanaimo/parksville/qualicum area on sunday as we drove around running errands.

VWs: 77

TDIs: 51

That's 2 outa 3 that are TDIs!!!
 

97TDIStu

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Location
Pennsylvania
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2013 Jetta TDI Premium
If you or I found oil in our backyard, what would we charge?

Very, very good post D Bill. Excellent points made on all counts. Now, I'm not trying to start a quarrel with anybody else, but adding to the point that D Bill made if I could. Even if we allow oil companies to drill in Alaska or offshore of the West Coast or wherever in the U.S. or its territories, it won't make one bit of difference in what we pay for oil because what we pay for oil and thus, gas and diesel is dictated by OPEC production limits because they control the vast majority of the world's oil supply even though the U.S. amazingly gets the vast majority of its supply from Canada and Mexico. ( Which by the way, Mexico's fields are in decline by 10% each year.)
If you or I were to pull a Jed Clampett and find oil in our back yard ( assuming we had mineral rights to it) why in the world would we charge less for it than the going rate? Even if the oil was found on Federal land it's not as if the government would nationalize it to serve it up to a thirsty American public at a lower cost. I digress...Unless we found such a vast supply in yours or my backyard literally ( which is unlikely) which would flood the marketplace with supply and then cause a glut which would then allow prices to plummet. But even then OPEC would just cut its production , thus driving prices back up. That's why all this hubbub about finding oil in Minnesota or Idaho or wherever it was last week or so was all bunk. Just because oil might be found on American soil doesn't mean it would benefit prices in the U.S. at all, in the least. Until we ween ourselves off this stuff we are doomed to pay for it at a cost that we simply cannot control. PERIOD. IMHO
 

buckeye96

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Location
Alexandria, VA
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2005 Jetta ?
What always kills me is that people never look at the cost per mile. Diesel will have to be almost double of RUG for my TDI to start to equal the cost per mile of a gasser.
 

RabbitGTDJoe

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Aug 10, 2005
Location
Southern Tier, Central New York
TDI
1981 Rabbit GTD (future TDI)
Take a look at this guys...I got scared too when I first thought about the prices of diesel vs. gasser...
I'm getting ready to do my second mTDI (first was the mk1...this time around...a b3 variant (so I'll have two in the arsenal)).

However, a friend made an excel spreadsheet with comparitive costs vs. mileage between the two fuels.

From our home/local forum....
http://fastdubs.org/fuslit/diesel_gas-costsavings_comparison-1.xls

Makes sense.

Joe
 

dieselyeti

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Location
Fairfield CT
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2012 Passat TDI SE (DSG)
Twig, I just saw the article on AW's site and ya beat me to the punch...

n1das, I've had the same thoughts about selling my '98 but with the intention of buying a Mustang convertible. With 205k I should probably hang onto my Yeti for a winter beater though. The .80 difference between RUG and diesel is making me nuts - I filled up last night and saw the price had gone from $4.13 to 4.35 in the two weeks since the last topoff.

Ouch.

I know the price is seasonal, and ULSD was less than RUG last summer, but I can't figure out why there's such a huge disparity between the two right now. I'm hoping the price of diesel does come down this summer - and not just seeing the price of RUG rising to match it...
 
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rufushusky

New member
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Weymouth, MA
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none
I would belive it, there are two diesels sitting in our driveway right now my dodge and my father's 2000 f350. Right now I am looking at a TDI to handle my daily driving, cause 18mpg is not bad at 6300 pounds but with diesel at 4.25 and rising...a tdi sure does look nice.
 

Mike_04GolfTDI

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Location
Richmond, BC, Canada
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Mine: 2019 Golf R DSG, Wife's: 2015 Golf Comfortline TDI
buckeye96 said:
What always kills me is that people never look at the cost per mile. Diesel will have to be almost double of RUG for my TDI to start to equal the cost per mile of a gasser.
That depends which gasser, and also you must consider the purchase price of the car. The cheapest TDI which will become available for 2009 is going to be just over $30,000 Canadian with the taxes. (That's $26,475+$1550 PDI+5% GST+6% PST in British Columbia). You can get something else for thousands less that uses about 1.5L more gas per 100km. It'll take a lifetime to break even on your driving costs with a TDI compared to something cheaper. (since we're talking about the COST of driving here). US prices might be a little lower, but then they are also lower for the gasser, so the comparison is still fair.
 

Trooper81

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Location
Ontario Canada
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2000 New Beetle, 2011 Touareg TDI
I wouldn't expect Diesel to drop a WHOLE lot but expect Gasoline to go up like crazy 5-6 dollars a gallon this summer would be easily expected with ULSD being just a bit south of gasoline. The reason for this is the High demand for Diesel from the cold winter is letting off and a higher demand for gasoline is catching up from relatively cheap gas. $3.50-4.00 a gallon to upwards of $6.
 

MunchausenDrive

Veteran Member
Joined
Dec 21, 2007
Location
Davis,CA
TDI
None... yet
by 2020 eh?

If that's gonna happen by 2020 they'll have to actually bring diesels the the states.

I have a gasser, but want a diesel. I bought the gasser because of the premium on TDI Golfs in CA and the stars aligned for the purchase. I give it 2 to 3 years I'll swap in the diesel, since i doubt VW will ever bring a TDI rabbit to the states.
 

D_Bill

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Location
SE Pa
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another idea

D_Bill said:
FWIW

. . .

If we let them drill anywhere they want, they would just want to drill some more somewhere else, as they will always claim ( or manufacture ? ) a crisis to make us drop our standards/ideals. Instead, we should point out that by switching to ( bio ? - especially as its environment friendly ) diesel, what we have, would go all that much further. One way to do this would be to follow through with high mpg requirements for all vehicles and not counting pollution per gallon or parts per million but rather we should push for counting pollution( parts ) per mile.

. . .
My apologies for beating this thread up but I am hearing so much about gassers I needed to - ramble - some more. Thanks for putting up with this . . .

I have been thinking about this oil price thing for awhile - and its made me angry . Here's why. The oil industry claims to be working on supply and demand. But that presupposes that there are alternatives - not ! The oil industry controls the transportation market whether we like it or not.

( Forget the conspiracy buffs that would agrue that its not a coincidence that the price of diesel went up as demand for diesel grew - some would say they saw profits slipping away to people that got higher mpg so they raised the price to "reclaim" - their - profits . Not me. I still don't get why it costs more to take sulphur out of diesel than lead and - sulphur - out of RUG - but that's for another time )

So what is a consumer to do when the supplier has a "monopoly" ( technically it may be an oligopoly but the effect on us is the same ) . Well there have to be alternatives. So - drum roll - let's lobby for biodiesel - but on a local scale. Tax credits and tax incentives to small local producers of biodiesel ( think of that professor at MIT that used the exhaust - co2 - from their power plant to grow algae that produced more than 100 times the oil that soy would have - and multiply that throughout the country ) . And just to make sure that this takes off, well the tax incentives would drop off as the operation gets larger till there is no incentive for big oil. We want farmers' co-op's, utility companies, private groups of you and I to spring up without the ties to the oil industry. Govt only regulates the standard for the fuel and ensures that each operation carries insurance . Govt does not step in with tax dollars to fund research for alternative fuels - spell that as just another platitude for the masses that in order to qualify for you must be either a major player or tied to a major player. Exactly what we don't want - govt deciding in advance what research should be funded rather than us. No big business involved. We want this new biodiesel to be produced by the little guy for the little guy.

Rudolph Diesel - I want this to be for the farmers so that they don't have to rely on ( BIG ) oil.

As is typical - I've ranted too much . . . but thanks for listening
 

DRbillZ

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Location
Jackson,Tn. Home of Carl Perkins :)
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dayne66 said:
my daughter just did a 'count' here in the nanaimo/parksville/qualicum area on sunday as we drove around running errands.

VWs: 77

TDIs: 51

That's 2 outa 3 that are TDIs!!!
Maybe more.........because TDI Beetles don't get the TDI badge!

I believe 20% will turn out to be a low number by 2020 and maybe even a low number by 2015
 
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DRbillZ

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TDI
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My TDIs were NEVER in question to be sold. I considered selling my diesel Excursion only to find small SUVs like the Jeep Liberty get about the same mileage! And not to mention losing half the room and most of the comfort of the Ex.
The Ford Escape is about the only one that gets atleast decent mileage and it still isn't that great.
 

97TDIStu

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Pennsylvania
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2013 Jetta TDI Premium
Once again, I'm with you all the way, D Bill. I should also note that there are ongoing quarrels between the biodiesel community and the WVO community as well as other "kinda bio" alternatives some of which are banned from mention on these forums, because each has their own supporters and already entrenched business interests for this still fledgling industry. That's why you make sense, D Bill when you say keep it locally organized and for the little guy.
 

dieselyeti

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Mar 14, 2005
Location
Fairfield CT
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2012 Passat TDI SE (DSG)
D_Bill said:
So - drum roll - let's lobby for biodiesel - but on a local scale. Tax credits and tax incentives to small local producers of biodiesel. We want farmers' co-op's, utility companies, private groups of you and I to spring up without the ties to the oil industry. Govt only regulates the standard for the fuel and ensures that each operation carries insurance. No big business involved. We want this new biodiesel to be produced by the little guy for the little guy.
Interesting idea here (edited for length) I like the idea of locally produced bio, seeing as there's only a handful of places in all of CT where that fuel is available. The only problem I see with this is compatibility with modern common rail injection systems. If the auto mfrs only authorize B5 in their vehicles, what's the point of going to all the trouble if 95% of the blend is dino diesel?
 

Blinder

Active member
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Location
Williamsburg, VA
TDI
2006 Jetta
If US bio producers become better organized/regulated some of the compatability issues should go away (are these engines B5-or-less in the EU?). The bigger issue for bio right now would seem to be the food-for-fuel issue, even though there are plenty of ways to produce a significant amount of biofuel without affecting food supplies (seeing as a lot of cover crops can be harvested for bio, and eventually crude prices will make large-scale waste oil recycling economical).
 

mittzlepick

Veteran Member
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Mar 18, 2001
Location
union maine
TDI
2004 jetta wagon (365k)2001 wagon tire burner 6spd 2003 wagon(417k)
good luck at 489 per gallon even, if its is still more economical in the final numbers the average american can do that kind of math. has anyone seen the new nat geographic with the volome of oil flowing? we are on the path of doom. at least china is anticipating the need for bio what are we doing?
 

mittzlepick

Veteran Member
Joined
Mar 18, 2001
Location
union maine
TDI
2004 jetta wagon (365k)2001 wagon tire burner 6spd 2003 wagon(417k)
there is a place near me suposed to gear up for 250k gallons per year gavitt fuel something like that in westerly r.i.
 

cctoronto

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 14, 2007
Location
Toronto
TDI
Silver 2003 Golf GL
stlil a better deal

despite the price, i still go three times the distance on a tank of fuel...

worth it, still...
 

Trooper81

Veteran Member
Joined
Nov 6, 2001
Location
Ontario Canada
TDI
2000 New Beetle, 2011 Touareg TDI
cctoronto said:
despite the price, i still go three times the distance on a tank of fuel...

worth it, still...

Damn right and prices are closing fast on diesel vs gas. 1.25 for Diesel 1.20 for gasoline


that's 4.55 per US gallon or 5.46 per imperial gallon for RUG. don't throw away your TDI yet gas is about to get much more expensive, anyone driving a Big SUV get out your Tissues because soon your gas bill per week will be more than most of our mortgages.
 

MrMopar

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Location
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none
DRbillZ said:
I considered selling my diesel Excursion only to find small SUVs like the Jeep Liberty get about the same mileage!
Rig a switch to turn off the EGR after the engine has been started. Some owners have been getting around 35 MPG highway with the EGR disabled.
 

SoKYTDi

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Get Started NOW!!

Mike_04GolfTDI said:
It'll take a lifetime to break even on your driving costs with a TDI compared to something cheaper. (since we're talking about the COST of driving here). US prices might be a little lower, but then they are also lower for the gasser, so the comparison is still fair.
Fair until you realize that the TDi will last far longer than the gasser if maintained properly. :D

D_Bill said:
So - drum roll - let's lobby for biodiesel - but on a local scale. Tax credits and tax incentives to small local producers of biodiesel ( think of that professor at MIT that used the exhaust - co2 - from their power plant to grow algae that produced more than 100 times the oil that soy would have - and multiply that throughout the country ) . And just to make sure that this takes off, well the tax incentives would drop off as the operation gets larger till there is no incentive for big oil. We want farmers' co-op's, utility companies, private groups of you and I to spring up without the ties to the oil industry. Govt only regulates the standard for the fuel and ensures that each operation carries insurance . Govt does not step in with tax dollars to fund research for alternative fuels - spell that as just another platitude for the masses that in order to qualify for you must be either a major player or tied to a major player. Exactly what we don't want - govt deciding in advance what research should be funded rather than us. No big business involved. We want this new biodiesel to be produced by the little guy for the little guy.
I'll start doing this immediately - the only bio pump around here is at BP, and it's a B2 pump. At this station, it costs the same as straight Dino. I've been wanting to start making my own, and I might just apply for a rural development grant to help out once I get some serious research done. No one around here (to my knowledge) produces bio on any kind of scale for sale to the public. I do know of one farmer who makes his own and fuels his farm equipment that way, so I may go visit him as well. Thanks for the idea, D_Bill!!
 

Dooglas

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'06 Jetta
Mike_04GolfTDI said:
It'll take a lifetime to break even on your driving costs with a TDI compared to something cheaper. (since we're talking about the COST of driving here). US prices might be a little lower, but then they are also lower for the gasser, so the comparison is still fair.
SoKYTDi said:
Fair until you realize that the TDi will last far longer than the gasser if maintained properly. :D
And will be worth more when you sell it. (Lets put all the pieces in the "cost of driving" equation.)
 
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Dooglas

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dieselyeti said:
The only problem I see with this is compatibility with modern common rail injection systems. If the auto mfrs only authorize B5 in their vehicles, what's the point of going to all the trouble if 95% of the blend is dino diesel?
Lets not confuse one issue with the other. Some manufacturerers "authorize" B5 and others "authorize" B20. This is a warranty issue and reflects the nervousness of manufacturers with "homebrew" biodiesel. B20 biodiesel formulated to ASTM D-6761 specifications runs perfectly well in modern pumpe-deuse and common rail injection systems as every owner who routinely does it knows.
 

MrMopar

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Dooglas said:
And will be worth more when you sell it. (Lets put all the pieces in the "cost of driving" equation.)
The phrase "your mileage may vary" is very apt here.

SOME people will factor resale into their car purchase, and in that case, yes, it is an important part of the total balance sheet.

On the other hand, some people buy a car with the intention of running it into the ground until it is sent to a junkyard. In that case, resale means nothing - and the entire upfront purchase price must be factored into the total cost of ownership. Resale value won't come back to help much in the end, so it must be written off the balance sheet.
 

Dooglas

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MrMopar said:
The phrase "your mileage may vary" is very apt here.

SOME people will factor resale into their car purchase, and in that case, yes, it is an important part of the total balance sheet.

On the other hand, some people buy a car with the intention of running it into the ground until it is sent to a junkyard. In that case, resale means nothing - and the entire upfront purchase price must be factored into the total cost of ownership. Resale value won't come back to help much in the end, so it must be written off the balance sheet.
I agree, but the TDI driver wins either way. Either you get the full value of the vehicle lasting 200-300k or you drive it for 100-150k and still realize a significant resale. Either one more than cancels out the initial price differential of a TDI versus the comparable gasser. It is not a matter of whether you choose to factor in residual value. That part is a fact. It is a matter of your strategy in how long you plan to retain the vehicle.
 

Cabbie

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Florida
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MrMopar said:
The phrase "your mileage may vary" is very apt here.

SOME people will factor resale into their car purchase, and in that case, yes, it is an important part of the total balance sheet.

On the other hand, some people buy a car with the intention of running it into the ground until it is sent to a junkyard. In that case, resale means nothing - and the entire upfront purchase price must be factored into the total cost of ownership. Resale value won't come back to help much in the end, so it must be written off the balance sheet.
A TDI, even when "junk", will still command a premium being parted out. You're thinking mopar, gm, and ford. :D
 

cooldieseldude

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Benz CDI
Cost of Diesel and fuel in general

You can blame the environmentalist because they have made it next to impossible to build any new refineries in the US. The problem is not with Oil supply (trust me we have more than enough dead dinosaur).
 
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