Sadly, it won't affect them one bit. Many have posted up that they've traded in and buy ANOTHER newer VW to replace the fubared one. Yep, VW is sure sore about that,
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I'm quite sure they are banking on precisely that.. however, once US automakers did same, when the Imports started to destroy them, they had to learn from mistakes... sadly it has to get bad first. VW was pushing an aggressive NA marketing strategy to gain market share, I don't see how this can help.. knowing what I know now, I can't recommend one... not because of the specific issue itself, but because of how they are handling it. If they fixed the design, and replaced pumps at the first hint of impending failure (metal in the filter), I could then eagerly recommend their cars without reservation.. design flaws happen, but being unwilling to fix them is the issue here. The warranty extension is not really a proper fix, as they still let the massive failure happen before they do anything and I don't think the picked 120K/10 years at random, they know many pumps will make it just past that point, some less.. but once past the extension, they will let the customer handle the massive cost.. we've seen it in these forums.
In contrast, even FCA (Fiat Chrysler) is doing better at offering to make things right on issue for their trucks, I have one that is under the supposed buyback offer, but I like the truck, and in that case the issues are really not as much design issues, as people altering their trucks, and with wear on steering parts leading to "death wobble" in the steering.. Mine, with proper maintenance, and no alterations is rock solid, no issues.. and they replaced parts that I'm pretty sure where completely OK, on recalls that I doubt were really needed..
Now, going back to 1999, I had a 1997 Dodge truck that was a lemon that they would not care to properly fix.. long story, but the only reason I went Dodge again was for the Cummins engine, and manual transmission, in 2009 only Dodge and Ford had diesel with manual transmission, and the Ford had an odd engine set for only 3 years of production.. and has turned out very badly... The Dodge truck has been good overall.
While it is likely true some diehards will endure any crappy design of their preferred car company, there are likely far more who do not have brand loyalty and will go elsewhere, this can't help the marketing strategy to gain market share. I might be willing consider a used VW still, and make the required fixes, but they are proving that the warranty coverage is not really all that valuable. They can't gain market share if people won't buy their new cars.. there are some on this forum who have gotten rid of their TDI and are waiting for a proper fix before they will buy another, so it is hard to quantify how this ends up affecting VW.. but it can't be good.