FYI- The new 5 cyl Jetta V uses a timing chain instead of a belt which should last the life of the engine. This is a big plus in reducing operating costs in the long run. I wonder if we will ever realize a true cost savings with the tdi? Between higher initial purchase price, timing belts, MAF replacements, it may be cheaper to but a new gasser?
The TDI should still be less to operate!
There's about a $1000 price spread btw comparably equipped models. Let's use EPA HWY estimates at $2.00 / gallon. In a 5 speed manual, the 2.5 rates 30 mpg hwy the TDI rates 46.
At 100,000 miles the 2.5, (at 30mpg HWY) will have consumed 3,333 gallons at $6,667. The TDI will have consumed 2174 gallons at $4347. The TDI will also have consumed one TB parts and labor at say $800.
So at 100,000 miles the TDI has already caught up in operating expense. It has overcome the $1000 price spread and $800 TB with over $2300 in fuel savings.
Every 100,000 miles thereafter a TDI saves you about $1,300 @ $2.00 gallon, factoring in $1000 for a major TB change.
What if fuel goes to $5.00 gallon? What about $10? Even at $3/gallon (which many CA consumers are currently paying), a TDI will consume ~$6500 in fuel against $10,000 for a 2.5 over 100K miles.
In summary, if you can get a value edition 2.5, you could make a good case for the 2.5 in a short term ownership proposition. However, if fuel prices go through the roof, the TDI will be the only sensible solution.
I see purchasing a TDI as a hedge against a potentially volatile and unknown future wrt to fuel prices. Last I heard, you can't make your own gasoline.