Jetta TDI proving more popular than VW planned

[bluengreen]

From my small sample in the NW, I'd say you are misunderstanding the statistics. If every dealer has every one of their JSWs sold before they get them, that doesn't make it the least popular model. It makes it the hardest model for dealers to obtain. The problem with the JSWs is supply, not demand.

My numbers inquiries are aimed at trying to get a handle on what they might sell of each flavor of TDI JSW & Sedan and what is already sold. This line of thinking was invited by VW's Santa Monica Press conferences and the numbers they stated as sales targets (%'s offered w/o actual #'s).
I think that what is happening w/ JSW (look at the popularity of that thread here) is that there is a double underestimation of market -under appreciation of JSW demand as an alternative to much lower mileage SUV sized vehicles that are falling into disfavor and the multiplication of that interest caused by TDI mileage and efficiency. The pre-TDI JSW stats did not look that impressive, but who knows what they will be. I'd love to see them flood the market! Thus far the problem with all 09 TDIs is supply & not demand.

 

[jvance]

I've watched the same gasser Sportwagens sit at a couple of dealerships for over a month. I think the 2.5 ones are languishing, while the TDI and maybe the 2.0T SEL barely make a scuff mark on the lot before they're gone.

My new salesman tells me that about the only thing moving off of his lot with some alacrity this month are the TDIs.

 

[twigless]

As to: "25-percent of sedan buyers and 33-percent of wagon buyers or 33% sedan buyers and 50 % of all wagon buyers opting for the oil-burner."

I found web stats for 06 and 07 when VWoA sold about 230,000 cars.
Other web stats suggest that about 37% of all sales would have been Jettas and about 1% were JSWs.
The translation to a hard number (if 33% of all Jetta Sedans were TDI's) would be about 28,500 units, and if 50% of JSW's were TDIs that would equate to only about 1,363.
Even using the earlier statistical expectations this would equate to 21,550 for the Jetta sedan TDI and 900 for the JSW TDI. Of course the JSW TDI may prove to be more popular than its gasser sibling.

There were no Model Year 2006 or 2007 or 2008 Jetta wagons. The cars sold in 2006 were leftover 2005 models. That 1% figure is a fluke... may as well be 0%. Go back to 2002--I think that was the last year of 50-state diesels (2003?). That is the last time you can semi-accurately gauge the sales of wagon to sedan. Historically (don't remember where I heard this) the JSW would be about 50% TDI, and the sedan was something like 20%. But again, if CA and the other 5 or 7 states account for 50% of VW's US sales, and if those 50% of sales couldn't sell TDIs for the last six years, the numbers will be way off anyway.

 

[Dodoma]

Please do not be disappointed if you are unable to get a TDI. There are plenty of those in CA. I see some delears selling at MSRP whereas other at premium. If you have patience, there will be time that these cars will go for discount. With GM Volts, giving 100 mpg coming out next year plus other diesels, VW will have to offer discount to be compatative. If 1300 batch is all sold out, good for VW.

 

[jvance]

Please do not be disappointed if you are unable to get a TDI. There are plenty of those in CA. I see some delears selling at MSRP whereas other at premium. If you have patience, there will be time that these cars will go for discount. With GM Volts, giving 100 mpg coming out next year plus other diesels, VW will have to offer discount to be compatative. If 1300 batch is all sold out, good for VW.

I believe VW is going to raise prices next year along with other imports. MSRP today is going to be a better deal than $500 over invoice six months from now.

 

[g-wagen]

I'm not sure about the united states but in canada it is illegal to sell anything let alone a car for more than the msrp. there is a massive penalty for doing so. There is only one way around it and that is to make the car a demo put on I think at least 1500 km's then you can sell it used for more than msrp. That is what a lot of MB dealers did with the diesel smart cars when they were in their height of popularity.

 

[vtyankee]

I'm not sure about the united states but in canada it is illegal to sell anything let alone a car for more than the msrp. there is a massive penalty for doing so. There is only one way around it and that is to make the car a demo put on I think at least 1500 km's then you can sell it used for more than msrp. That is what a lot of MB dealers did with the diesel smart cars when they were in their height of popularity.

Sadly, in the U.S.A. we have no such protection against these predators.

 

[CentralFloridaTDIguy]

well

Please do not be disappointed if you are unable to get a TDI. There are plenty of those in CA. I see some delears selling at MSRP whereas other at premium. If you have patience, there will be time that these cars will go for discount. With GM Volts, giving 100 mpg coming out next year plus other diesels, VW will have to offer discount to be compatative. If 1300 batch is all sold out, good for VW.

1300 was just the amount of TDI loyals.... I bet that the actual number that they produce will be closer to 12,000 between Loyal, Non-loyal sedan and Sportwagens....

The Volt will be very expensive (40k or so), limited range, and probably de-contented more than the Jetta TDI....so the Jetta would still be competitively priced at a higher MSRP... also, I wouldn't be surprised if GM did the same thing that they did with the EV1 and lease them

 

[bluengreen]

There were no Model Year 2006 or 2007 or 2008 Jetta wagons. The cars sold in 2006 were leftover 2005 models. That 1% figure is a fluke... may as well be 0%. Go back to 2002--I think that was the last year of 50-state diesels (2003?). That is the last time you can semi-accurately gauge the sales of wagon to sedan. Historically (don't remember where I heard this) the JSW would be about 50% TDI, and the sedan was something like 20%. But again, if CA and the other 5 or 7 states account for 50% of VW's US sales, and if those 50% of sales couldn't sell TDIs for the last six years, the numbers will be way off anyway.

Interesting. Would you hazard a guess as to the total # of 2009 TDI Sedans you think they might sell and or how many they have sold so far?

 

[Art Vandelay]

The Volt will be very expensive (40k or so), limited range, and probably de-contented more than the Jetta TDI....so the Jetta would still be competitively priced at a higher MSRP... also, I wouldn't be surprised if GM did the same thing that they did with the EV1 and lease them

I'm expecting the Volt to be heavily subsidized, and I don't know what you're referring to in terms of limited range. After 40 miles, the gas engine kicks on, giving it the range of a normal car while remaining very fuel efficient.

 

[Trbogolf]

I'm expecting the Volt to be heavily subsidized, and I don't know what you're referring to in terms of limited range. After 40 miles, the gas engine kicks on, giving it the range of a normal car while remaining very fuel efficient.

Isn't the volts engine purely for recharging the battery? No actual driveline connected to it?

 

[jvance]

Isn't the volts engine purely for recharging the battery? No actual driveline connected to it?

That's exactly right. It's a serial hybrid. The engineering target is for the Volt to get 50mpg with the engine running and charging the batteries. Consider that engine doesn't need impressive specs. It doesn't need tons of horsepower to accelerate the car. It only needs to supply the average demand. Therefore it can always run at its most efficient rpm and load, kicking on and off as the battery charge level demands.

If they give the Volt your typical small car tank of 11.9 gallons, it will have a range of 40 miles all electric + 500 miles serial hybrid. Not bad at all.

 

[EEGeek]

That's exactly right. It's a serial hybrid. The engineering target is for the Volt to get 50mpg with the engine running and charging the batteries. Consider that engine doesn't need impressive specs. It doesn't need tons of horsepower to accelerate the car. It only needs to supply the average demand. Therefore it can always run at its most efficient rpm and load, kicking on and off as the battery charge level demands.

There's been a fair amount of recent discussion as to exactly the role that the Volt's engine plays. My current understanding is that the engine will run at varying speeds to supply the varying power required, and that it can recharge the battery to a certain extent, but nowhere close to a full recharge. A full recharge can only be done by plugging into the grid, where the power is much cheaper. It makes sense to me that you don't want to to completely top up the battery using the more expensive power from the engine.

My guess is that the engine will run at differing speeds depending on the state of the battery, the power requirements of the moving car, and the speed of the vehicle. No one wants to sit at a stop light with the engine roaring at peak efficiency simply to recharge the battery.

TDI relevance? Not much, other than that a diesel could do this job just as well. But with the required pollution controls, it's probably not cost effective.

A couple of sources:
http://www.autoblog.com/2008/09/26/settle-down-volt-batteries-can-recharge-while-driving/
http://www.egmcartech.com/2008/09/29/scratch-that-chevy-volts-engine-will-recharge-onboard-battery/

 

[MIA]

It's wrong. The delivered cars have heated seats, according to people on this board who now own one.

What's more lame is the lack of a fold flat front passenger seat, which was very prominently promised on all trimlines of Sportwagens.

They were not even listed on my window sticker, but they are there and work.