Gen II 3.0 speculation(s).

09tdi

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The 2012 Q7 has a fix option. Anyone knows about its Adblue refill interval for it is fixed?




This article isn't cited nearly enough, so will post again:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertel...eselgate-scandal-stadler-soiled/#1476a95255f5

A fix may be technically possible, but the DEF tank will need to be refilled every other tank of diesel, which doesn't seem feasible for owners. The tanks were not designed to be easily refilled, especially on the larger SUVs.

Gotta say, I can't see soccer moms crawling around in the rear cargo area trying to fill up their DEF tank at a gas station while truckers leer at them. Seems like it could be a sticking point for this "fix".

Just 10 days remain until VW is late.



Per Audi/VW engineers, DEF usage to bring nitrogen oxides down to allowable levels is 8L/1000km, while highway fuel consumption is 81L/1000km. So nearly 10% DEF usage. Seems like the engine itself may be flawed in design if it is producing that quantity of nitrogen oxides.
 

bhuizer

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Even with an approved certified fix needing adding Adblue like crazy?:D
Lol

It makes me think that VW has an uphill battle to get the 3.0's to pass without some major changes. If the court would have put a clause in about DEF usage it sounds like a buyback would have been a sure thing. Hard to tell right now.
 

saggii

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I believe there was a news back in September that VW is going to set aside another $3-5 billion for provisioning the additional cost of the cheating. How is that money going to be spent is anybody's guess.
 

MBQ

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The money needed to buyback 60k 3.0L. Gen 2 is set to be around 3-4bn. Coincidence?
 
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MBQ

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I believe there was a news back in September that VW is going to set aside another $3-5 billion for provisioning the additional cost of the cheating. How is that money going to be spent is anybody's guess.
Source?
 

Fourplay

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A quick search pulled up this, but they claim the extra 3-billion is for the 2.0's. Interesting
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/29/vw-takes-new-3-billion-hit-over-diesel-emissions-scandal.html
They're trying to avoid being sued again by investors for failure to report negative special items that they've known about for some time.

Even if it was for the 3.0L, they aren't required to state that. Only that there will be additional costs incurred.

Assuming VW previously earmarked at least $8K per Gen II vehicle for repair payments, this ~$2.95B amount would almost exactly match the additional sum required for buybacks.

$2.95B / 60K cars = $49.1K per car. Add in the $8.5K repair payment and you're at $57.6K per car, which is probably pretty damn close to the average buyback figure. My 26 cars have an average buyback value of $60.5K, but I am heavier on the higher value cars.

This could be paydirt. Or not. But interesting either way.
 

Q7tdiowner

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Even if it was for the 3.0L, they aren't required to state that.
You're correct; they could have said they were taking an additional impairment related to US Diesel legal issues.

The fact that they specifically called-out 2.0L vehicles in their investor announcement means that they have a legal obligation to use that money specifically for those costs.

Although I suppose VW isn't exactly known for being truthful or living up to their legal obligations.
 

843tdi

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I saw the extra 3 billion thing a few weeks back my first thought was the same thing tat was going to be used to buy back 3.0l vehicles then I saw the 2.0l thing mentioned. I always wondered what separated the 3 sub categories on the 3.0l vehicles I know wonder if it is the ability to fit larger tanks in the the 3 sub categories
 

bhuizer

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You're correct; they could have said they were taking an additional impairment related to US Diesel legal issues.
The fact that they specifically called-out 2.0L vehicles in their investor announcement means that they have a legal obligation to use that money specifically for those costs.
Although I suppose VW isn't exactly known for being truthful or living up to their legal obligations.
Another interesting read on the same topic. Three billion sure seems like a lot of money for "2.0 Liter Complications".

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwi...-extra-3-billion-dieselgate-hit/#3bd7b878314e
 
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psd1

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Another interesting read on the same topic. Three billion sure seems like a lot of money for "2.0 Liter Complications".

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwi...-extra-3-billion-dieselgate-hit/#3bd7b878314e

"The increased cost was related to VW’s 2.0 litre diesel engines which VW said is proving to be more difficult to fix than expected."

What are the these 2.0 difficulties? Anyone up to speed on the 2.0 settlement, I've focused on the 3.0 since selling my Passat back.
 

McFuzz

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What the honest general opinion at this point? Buy back for the 3.0's or a fix? Seems that with all the setbacks and crap they are going through, they may just throw in the towel and buy all the cars out...
 

Motodude

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What the honest general opinion at this point? Buy back for the 3.0's or a fix? Seems that with all the setbacks and crap they are going through, they may just throw in the towel and buy all the cars out...
You talk as if throwing in the towel is no big deal. You are talking about 4 BILLION dollars. Pretty confident they are going to try every single possible idea if it even buys them an extra month.
 

Syndicate

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I believe honestly that a buy back will happen due to a fix not being able to be clean and efficient enough to pass.
 

bhuizer

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Can anyone verify if the VW Claims portal is accurate? Looking at a 2013 Q7 and it is saying the car is eligible for the full repair amount through VW Claims.
 
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Syndicate

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Can anyone verify if the VW Claims portal is accurate? Looking at a 2013 Q7 and it is saying the car is eligible for the full repair amount through VW Claims.
Nope. Take a look at the CarFax, if it sold after July 5th then just assume that the first half is gone.

You could get lucky, but quite a few have found otherwise.
 

843tdi

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Agree with Syndicate I know of several vehicles now that have been sold or traded by friends that the VW site says has full money but they have collected half and sold the vehicle already. Almost everything on the open market left falls in this category if you were to jump in now with the escalated price of the vehicles from a dealer I would only buy what you would intend to keep if there is no buy back.
 

Q5TDI

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You talk as if throwing in the towel is no big deal. You are talking about 4 BILLION dollars. Pretty confident they are going to try every single possible idea if it even buys them an extra month.
What is strange about one of the linked articles above is that VW/Audi already threw in the towel when they decided to implement the cheat software instead of introducing the 3.0's with higher DEF consumption.

I am fairly well-versed on the selective catalytic reduction systems and chemistry involved, and there are not that many levers that can be flipped with the SCR system to improve the efficiency of the reaction. It's basically quantity of NOx exiting the engine that has to be dealt with, their choice back in 2009 and 2010 was to shut the system off instead of providing the proper quantity of DEF (urea or nitrogenous reducing agent) to complete the SCR reaction and convert the NOx to "safe" reaction products of N2 and H2O.

I was surprised that Audi thought the 3.0's could be fixed with a software flash. I can't find particular details, but I believe the emissions treatment system on the 2014 Q5 TDI is a diesel oxidation catalyst upstream from a diesel filter coated with SCR catalyst. It seems VW/Audi made changes in the later model to replace the diesel oxidation catalyst with a NOx storage catalyst to obtain higher NOx reduction. I think it is properly shown in this video starting at 4:00:
https://youtu.be/BS-ElbkdwtI?t=239

In my experience, since reduction of NOx to N2 and H2O is really just a mass balance of NOx in to convert the NOx to N2 and H2O, they MAY need a higher volume of SCR catalyst or a more efficient SCR catalyst to get higher NOx conversion. The other option is to inject more DEF (urea reducing agent) into the system to convert higher amounts of NOx, which i the option that caused VW/Audi to implement the cheating software. This latter option seems highly objectionable to consumers, and I would hope that the EPA and CARB would not foist this crap on VW/Audi owners.

There may be another option or two such as changing the EGR operation (shown in the video), but IMO, I still think they will need more catalyst to convert the NOx or more urea.

Disclaimer: I am far from an expert in SCR, but I know enough about the basic components and the chemistry involved to conclude that what I said above is probably correct (60/40 to 70/30 chance). We shall see.
 

bhuizer

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Nope. Take a look at the CarFax, if it sold after July 5th then just assume that the first half is gone.

You could get lucky, but quite a few have found otherwise.
Thanks for the info, found a '13 Q7 Prestige w/67k miles in great condition for around $31-32k from a reliable dealer. With 10k of fix/bosch money I think I would profit 4-5k if a buyback didn't happen and would break even if it gets fixed with half resitution. That 60k+ buyback figure is what's making it tempting to roll the dice...

Has anyone else taken the risk and done similar? Having a dealers license would make it cheaper/easier. Chance of breaking even with a little bit of work, but also a chance to make a 30k profit?
 
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Mythdoc

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The head of Porsche was quoted very early on in dieselgate as stating that the Cayennes would need a new catalyst to be made compliant. I suspect he knew that decisions had earlier been made to ship a cheaper cat to save money. To round out my speculation, I suspect VW tried to get by CARB with an AdBlue flow modification as described above, and that CARB refused. I predict the 3.0 fix will be approved, requiring the new cat and that it will be a two stage fix similar to the 2015 Passat.
 

psd1

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Can anyone verify if the VW Claims portal is accurate? Looking at a 2013 Q7 and it is saying the car is eligible for the full repair amount through VW Claims.
No, Don't trust it.
Nope. Take a look at the CarFax, if it sold after July 5th then just assume that the first half is gone.
You could get lucky, but quite a few have found otherwise.
Yup
Agree with Syndicate I know of several vehicles now that have been sold or traded by friends that the VW site says has full money but they have collected half and sold the vehicle already. Almost everything on the open market left falls in this category if you were to jump in now with the escalated price of the vehicles from a dealer I would only buy what you would intend to keep if there is no buy back.
This.
Thanks for the info, found a '13 Q7 Prestige w/67k miles in great condition for around $31-32k from a reliable dealer. With 10k of fix/bosch money I think I would profit 4-5k if a buyback didn't happen and would break even if it gets fixed with half resitution. That 60k+ buyback figure is what's making it tempting to roll the dice...
Has anyone else taken the risk and done similar? Having a dealers license would make it cheaper/easier. Chance of breaking even with a little bit of work, but also a chance to make a 30k profit?
Many people have done it, just read through this thread for a brief look at some of them.
Risk V. Reward. That's what this whole thing is about for speculators. Go ahead and roll the dice and see what happens. The 13 Q7 falls in subgroup 2.1, so you only have to wait until November 8th to find out if VWAG needs an extension or not. For that price at a dealership I'll assume it isn't an S line with the B@O?
Loads of people are waiting anxiously for the 23rd to see what happens on the 2.2 sub group. My guess is that if VW needs an extension on that one you will start to see the prices on all 3.0's increase as more people brave the waters.
 

MBQ

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The Passat is not a certified fix.

Yes there will be a fix, for sure. Reduced emission fix, most likely.
 

Mythdoc

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The Passat is not a certified fix.


I know that, I was using it as an example of a hardware/software fix. I have no inside source, just read every article I could find. I think such a fix will be deemed compliant by CARB. If I am wrong and VW is forced into buybacks, I will come back and tip my hat to you.
 

Fourplay

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The head of Porsche was quoted very early on in dieselgate as stating that the Cayennes would need a new catalyst to be made compliant. I suspect he knew that decisions had earlier been made to ship a cheaper cat to save money. To round out my speculation, I suspect VW tried to get by CARB with an AdBlue flow modification as described above, and that CARB refused. I predict the 3.0 fix will be approved, requiring the new cat and that it will be a two stage fix similar to the 2015 Passat.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/porsche-proposes-emissions-fix-for-cayenne-diesels/

This fix was rejected, by the way. And not just for the Cayennes, for all 3.0L diesels.
 
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