Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

[eb2143]

Switching gears, there are going to be a lot of annoyed Tesla 3 deposit holders when the configurator is up and running based on what we now know. Priced like a luxury car and unavailable at $35K with most cars 50-60k, at least initially (and rwd only)

Will pricing (recall, no federal tax credits for most as tesla will no longer qualify) prevent mainstream adoption of the most highly anticipated vehicle to date?

 

[GoFaster]

Tesla has enough fanbois to keep the production line running for quite a while until they start building the lower priced versions with the smaller battery.

If you can wait a while, and you don't need/want the bigger battery, and you can skip the glass roof and power seats, and you opt for a car that you drive yourself, you can get one for close to the promised price. The federal tax credit in USA will probably have expired, so there's that.

 

[turbobrick240]

It should be available for $35k before too long. $35k is substantially more than I've ever paid for a car, but right in line with the average cost for new cars bought in america. It seems to be getting glowing reviews.

 

[oilhammer]

Yeah, I read an article that despite the $36k claimed starting price, the one they tested was a whopping $59k, and that would be closer to the only available versions for a little while. Talk about a bait and switch, LOL. That is a SUBSTANTIAL jump. The Audi A4 starts at $36k, too, and in order to get one tarted up to over $60k you'd actually have to step up to an S4 Prestige and even then have to add a few options.

They'll sell them, though. And the lesser priced ones may even have a longer delayed availability because the higher end ones will be selling I bet. At least for now, without any direct competition.

 

[eb2143]

Yeah, it does look like Tesla's Model 3 option strategy here will give other manufacturers at least a few years to produce a vehicle following the Bolt formula but with more appeal (better looking, quality interior appointments, semiautonomous (adaptive cruise at least), better braking and handling to match its GO) that could have broader appeal. Maybe VW could get into the game with a fast-tracked vehicle initially sold at a loss to gain market share, given their resources. The new Leaf LOOKS a whole lot better based on the tester without camouflage that was spied a few days ago, but I'm very hesitant to buy a Nissan given their recent offerings.

I think it's absurd Tesla autopilot is $5000 *software* option. I can see $1500-2000. Half the "Premium" package offerings should come standard for the base price. There should be colors other than black that come without an upcharge.

But, the Supercharger network and cachet of Tesla as a innovative, American luxury automobile manufacturer "all-in" for EVs (rather than dragged kicking and screaming) are difficult to put a price on and admittedly strongly draw me to Model 3. Aside from the price I really like what they appear to have created in the Model 3 (also, RWD is no go for me in winter, and I can only imagine the pricing for dual motor upgrade). The only thing that seems odd for me is that there's no HUD to display critical information to the windscreen. Instead, you have to look to the center screen to even know your speed.

Regarding Tesla Federal rebate, the info I found on Twitter from the Tesla fanboys is that the $7500 credit will begin to be phased out (200k EVs sold) for deliveries in Q1 2018. The phase out goes through a $3,500 rebate stage that will probably last until or through Q4 2018. Thus, if you placed an order for a Model 3 today, you can pretty much count on getting nothing from the Feds.

 

[turbobrick240]

The car mags are gushing about how great the model 3 acceleration and handling is. I guess the low center of gravity and engineering that went into the suspension gives it really exceptional handling characteristics. That's where Tesla really got it right- by building EV's that people actually want to drive.

 

[oilhammer]

The car mags are gushing about how great the model 3 acceleration and handling is. I guess the low center of gravity and engineering that went into the suspension gives it really exceptional handling characteristics. That's where Tesla really got it right- by building EV's that people actually want to drive.

Agreed, but if you can't afford it.... I mean, I really WANT to drive an RS6 or a 911, too. Although I could never see myself puttering around in something like that every day. An EV, even one with eyesight blurring performance, could still be driven around in a tame fashion every day too.

 

[Chris]

By some estimates the $7500 tax credit for Teslas will be phased out by the end of the 2017 calendar year or soon afterward.

 

[nicklockard]

I've got a pretty strong sense Tesla may not have to produce an actual $35k model 3 until the time when the model 4 is ready to release 5-6 years from now.

As long as they deliver...

Unfortunately that means I'll not be able to afford (justify) owning an electric car for about...well until I'm retired.

 

[Oilerlord]

Agreed, but if you can't afford it.... I mean, I really WANT to drive an RS6 or a 911, too. Although I could never see myself puttering around in something like that every day. An EV, even one with eyesight blurring performance, could still be driven around in a tame fashion every day too.

I don't know if you work on them, but in my experience modern 911s and Boxsters are pretty bulletproof. I've had the pleasure of owning both as daily drivers, and they worked quite well for me in that capacity. A Boxster has a surprising amount of cargo room for a two seater. As I recall, neither of those (used) cars cost me more than $40k each.

 

[turbobrick240]

I don't know if you work on them, but in my experience modern 911s and Boxsters are pretty bulletproof. I've had the pleasure of owning both as daily drivers, and they worked quite well for me in that capacity. A a Boxster has a surprising amount of cargo room for a two seater. As I recall, neith er of those (used) cars cost me more than $40k each.

Porsche makes some amazing cars, but I would never call them bulletproof. I don't know what you define as modern, but many Porsches built fairly recently had terrible timing chain designs (the IMS bearing specifically) that would grenade the engine. Happened to my uncle's boxster. And those engines are not cheap to replace.

 

[oilhammer]

I was gonna say, I worked at a dealer that had a Porsche franchise, and bulletproof is not a word I would apply to either the 911 or the Boxster. And we see in our shop PLENTY of broken Boxsters. They are not an awful car by any means, but they are far closer to a Jetta than a Camry when it comes to needing some attention now and then.

Maybe if you buy them newish and keep them only a couple years it is a different story.

 

[turbobrick240]

Yeah, my uncle's boxster basically has a passat transmission. The sounds the flat six make are a thing of beauty though. Would I take a brand new boxster or cayman over a model 3?- in a heartbeat.

 

[dremd]

Total Maintance cost on my Leaf is about to skyrocket, I need 2 tires. That's about $230 for the pair. So far in 26,000 miles (of my ownership) it has needed wiper blades, washer fluid, a brake fluid flush (I did have to make a new adapter for my flush setup), the 12 volt battery topped off, and 2 cabin air filters.

 

[nwdiver]

Total Maintance cost on my Leaf is about to skyrocket, I need 2 tires. That's about $230 for the pair. So far in 26,000 miles (of my ownership) it has needed wiper blades, washer fluid, a brake fluid flush (I did have to make a new adapter for my flush setup), the 12 volt battery topped off, and 2 cabin air filters.

Yeah... I'm not looking forward to my first oil change... it's coming up in another ~380,000 miles

 

[oilhammer]

Total Maintance cost on my Leaf is about to skyrocket, I need 2 tires. That's about $230 for the pair. So far in 26,000 miles (of my ownership) it has needed wiper blades, washer fluid, a brake fluid flush (I did have to make a new adapter for my flush setup), the 12 volt battery topped off, and 2 cabin air filters.

So, you neglected tire rotations... we get it. You also have essentially a new car. I would not have expected ANY car in 26k miles to need much of anything (and none of mine would certainly need 2 tires in that time, LOL).

I think this is the smugness problem that always plagues new car owners. It all comes full circle, though. Just takes time. We got two more dead Priuses dropped off overnight. Those folks used to be pretty smug too. But after a few years, stuff breaks.

 

[dremd]

So, you neglected tire rotations... we get it. You also have essentially a new car. I would not have expected ANY car in 26k miles to need much of anything (and none of mine would certainly need 2 tires in that time, LOL).
I think this is the smugness problem that always plagues new car owners. It all comes full circle, though. Just takes time. We got two more dead Priuses dropped off overnight. Those folks used to be pretty smug too. But after a few years, stuff breaks.

The Leaf is about to hit 60,000 miles, I've only owned it for 26,000 miles.
Previous owner changed 2 tires for an unknown reason. That said Nissan Leaf is hard on tires based on forum post. The fact that if I drive my TdI as hard I'm in low 30 mpg range doesn't help much either. If my Leaf vanished into thin air today I'd say I broke even between not having to fix anything on my TDI, no maintenance on TDI, and reduced wear on TDI purely because of insanely low purchase price for my Leaf.

I've got a pair of 150K Prius's in my life, they are solid cars (that I can't stand driving), but I've changed plenty of stuff.

 

[oilhammer]

Hehe, you should see the 312k mile Prius we have here.... holy heck what a pile of crap. Most of it of course is owner/driver induced of course. But my goodness it is a wreck of a thing.

 

[RabbitGTI]

I was at Road America for the Historic Races. Stopped by the Tesla display. They seem kind of cheap and kit car like. One was $150,000 dollars. Guy says it does 0-60 in 3.xx seconds. That is Porsche GT-3 money. You would have to be out of your mind to buy that POS over a GT-3.

 

[Rob Mayercik]

I read an article about the Tesla 3 the other day. Once thing that really stuck out in my mind is that the only "key" you get is an app for your phone (and some credit card thingy to give the valet). So you need a smartphone to be able to start the car (because I'm sure that valet mode is restricted). Was the guy who thought of that the same dipstick that decided engines and transmissions don't need dipsticks?

Give me a bloody key. (frankly, I don't even see the appeal of push-button start).

Something else that crossed my mind after reading that is "so how are they gonna bill the owners of these things for highway taxes"? Since everything right now is per-gallon on fuels that they don't use, they're getting a free ride at the moment.

 

[oilhammer]

I read an article about the Tesla 3 the other day. Once thing that really stuck out in my mind is that the only "key" you get is an app for your phone (and some credit card thingy to give the valet). So you need a smartphone to be able to start the car (because I'm sure that valet mode is restricted). Was the guy who thought of that the same dipstick that decided engines and transmissions don't need dipsticks?

Give me a bloody key. (frankly, I don't even see the appeal of push-button start).

Something else that crossed my mind after reading that is "so how are they gonna bill the owners of these things for highway taxes"? Since everything right now is per-gallon on fuels that they don't use, they're getting a free ride at the moment.

Well, in all fairness, engines and transmissions DON'T need dipsticks. But I agree that sometimes simple works just fine. But let's face it, if you rely on a computer to verify the key is correct for the car, verify conditions are OK to crank the engine, and provide the necessary inputs and outputs to even make the engine run, then it really is not *that* far of a leap to just let it monitor the oil level, too. I mean, we could just still have carburetors too I suppose.

The Tesla is a car that appeals to the tech crowd, so it stands to reason they'd grace it with that sort of stuff. And that fluffy stuff is CHEAP to put on, but people really get gaga over that and think it is neat and useful and makes the car feel upscale.

I'd rather have things like 25% thicker more durable paint, and larger rollers in the wheel bearings for longer life, and sturdier seat upholstery and tougher rods and pins and switches in the door latches. But those are all things you cannot 'see' on a new car. But being able to unlock it with your phone is "OMG SO AWESOME!" Just the world we live in. Good and bad, gotta roll with the punches.

 

[Rob Mayercik]

I'm not debating that it can be done, and it works. I just feel like it contributes to the "dumbing down" of drivers, as I feel automatic headlights/wipers/tpms do.

Then again, maybe the whole concept of "dumbing down" drivers is oxymoronic, considering some of the things that happen out on the roads.

I guess I'm just a bit of a throwback - I prefer the old "mark 1 eyeball" on a dipstick for oil/trans fluid levels, I know how to use a tire gauge, and I like having a mechanical level for selecting gears (and actuating the transfer case on my Jeep).

(edit) Maybe my problem with going "dipstick-less" is that I have no way to monitor the levels myself, and the sensor is just a boolean - good or not-good). I have no way to see for myself what's going on, or even verifying that the sensor is reading correctly (or at all!) - I just have to trust the computer. Being a Software Engineer by trade, and specializing in embedded/embedded test systems, I know that just because you write the code to do something doesn't mean that it actually will the first time you run the system - there's all sorts of ways they can go wrong.

That probably is part of my aversion to self-driving cars - given some of the things I've seen SW people do, the concept of software being responsible for driving a car is, frankly, occasionally terrifying to me. Now, if they decided that all self-driving car SW had to meet DO-178/278B and DO254 (FAA safety-of-life-critical requirements for software and firmware/FPGAs, respectively), I might be at least slightly less uncomfortable about it.

 

[gcodori]

Get off my lawn.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

 

[Rob Mayercik]

Cute, but I'm only 42...

 

[Chris]

I suspect that self-driving cars will be very vulnerable to bullying.

Nobody around here knows 4-way stop etiquette--they just go when they feel like it.

Pity the poor self-driving car that will only play by the rules.

 

[bhtooefr]

Also, Tesla will have a NFC smart card (think the same form factor as a credit card) that you can use as a key in lieu of the smartphone app.

 

[oilhammer]

Well if you are worried about the dumbing down of society, you should probably not watch the movie Idiocracy because that comedy is becoming a documentary.

 

[RabbitGTI]

I suspect that self-driving cars will be very vulnerable to bullying.

Nobody around here knows 4-way stop etiquette--they just go when they feel like it.

Pity the poor self-driving car that will only play by the rules.

You are correct. I can see great entertainment brake checking one on an icy, decreasing radius ramp. We'll see if they coded for that. The biggest problem is all speed limits are too low when conditions are good. Everyone knows it including law enforcement. If self driving cars blindly stick to the speed limit they will be rolling chicanes under good driving conditions and dangerous under less than perfect conditions.

 

[RabbitGTI]

Well if you are worried about the dumbing down of society, you should probably not watch the movie Idiocracy because that comedy is becoming a documentary.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolo...river-stranded-desert-smartphone-app-failure/

 

[turbobrick240]

You are correct. I can see great entertainment brake checking one on an icy, decreasing radius ramp. We'll see if they coded for that. The biggest problem is all speed limits are too low when conditions are good. Everyone knows it including law enforcement. If self driving cars blindly stick to the speed limit they will be rolling chicanes under good driving conditions and dangerous under less than perfect conditions.

That maneuver will be more likely to send you off the ramp than the autonomous car behind you. The reality is the autonomously driven cars will almost certainly reduce road fatalities hugely. Hopefully without sucking all the fun out of driving.