Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

[Tin Man]

Everybody knows that JD Power are phony, pay to play awards. Tesla never pays fools like them, so the results aren't surprising. The truly important metric is customer satisfaction. Tesla has the highest customer satisfaction ratings (unpaid ratings) of any automaker.

Customer satisfaction related to "driving experience, value, comfort, styling, audio, and climate systems." https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-tops-consumer-reports-owner-satisfaction-list-2019-2?op=1

Tesla reliability (CU) is average, and defects on delivery per 100 cars (JDP) is worst.

Cronyism accusations without evidence is just "some guy on the Internet" blather.

Teslarati has a positive view, as fan-boys: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-jim-cramer-jd-power-quality-survey/

 

[Tin Man]

CU: "The automaker was rated 27th of 29 brands in the publication's 2018 ranking of the most reliable auto brands. Consumer Reports said the Model 3 was reported to have average reliability and placed Tesla's Model X SUV among its 10 least reliable vehicles."

"The Model 3 is the only Tesla vehicle that Consumer Reports recommends. It previously recommended the Model S sedan, but the vehicle lost that recommendation due to reliability issues, the publication said."

 

[turbobrick240]

JD Power is a joke. That's not to say that Tesla never has any production/quality issues- but Tesla's customer satisfaction is still top shelf. The market clearly gave no weight to the JD Power hit piece. Tesla's market cap skyrocketed immediately following it's release.

 

[wxman]

Pretty dubious claims I'm certain. I just don't see how direct air carbon capture can possibly be economical. You'd basically need massive amounts of free electricity. At the current rate of innovation and cost reduction in Li-ion batteries, there doesn't seem to be much benefit from stopgap measures for road transport. Especially when scaling up the stopgap measures would take longer than replacing most of the ICEV fleet with EVs.

https://phys-org.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/phys.org/news/2019-10-carbon-capture.amp?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15939387646470&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fphys.org%2Fnews%2F2019-10-carbon-capture.html

I'm not sold on CCS either, as far as that goes. However, James Hansen has said that simply reducing GHG emissions to net zero is not enough to prevent irreversible effects from AGW, actually removing CO2 from the atmosphere will be required. Thus, if CCS does turn out to be technically feasible, the Natchez project would be a step in that direction.

I can't think of any way that electricity generation could have net negative GHG emissions; maybe a biomass-fueled EGU with CCS?

IIRC, there have been posts by members here suggesting that there is excess wind capacity during periods of low electricity demand. Using that potential excess energy to produce syn fuels would be better than charging untold number of batteries to store that same energy in my opinion. There's additional technical information on the Prometheus Fuels CO2-to-fuels technology here.

One advantage of liquid biofuels or synthetic fuels is that the refueling infrastructure is already in place. Also, BEVs produce much more adverse environmental and human health impacts in the acquisition of raw materials and manufacturing phases of the life cycle.

The environmental benefits of BEV technology are questionable at this time.

 

[Tin Man]

JD Power is a joke. That's not to say that Tesla never has any production/quality issues- but Tesla's customer satisfaction is still top shelf. The market clearly gave no weight to the JD Power hit piece. Tesla's market cap skyrocketed immediately following it's release.

Says you.


As long as you don't care about top-shelf reliability and defects on delivery, you will be very happy with your Tesla.


I'm sure when EV's get out of their 2% market share and go mainstream, by then quality will be better. I always say that new tech and engineering will continue to improve for all carmakers.

 

[turbobrick240]

EV marketshare in the U.S. is growing almost as fast as the president's approval ratings are tanking. Which is to say, precipitously. Both trends portend well for this great nation.

 

[Daemon64]

Sure. It's easy to grow when your marketshare is crap to begin with... hahaha

Please keep politics out of this.

 

[turbobrick240]

Sure. It's easy to grow when your marketshare is crap to begin with... hahaha
Please keep politics out of this.

I seem to recall you introducing politics earlier when I encouraged you to vote. Some nonsense about disenfranchisement. You have no idea what real disenfranchisement and voter suppression looks like. Try voting as a person of color in Georgia sometime.

 

[Daemon64]

Wow... what in the hell man. I'm not the only one talking about keeping politics out of this.

Are we talking EVs here, market share, battery life, alternatives and etc.. or do you want to talk about politics?

There is no need to switch topics like that to try to make a point.

I'll restate a few things here to hopefully get it back on topic.

1. I dont agree with messing with free markets to try to push EVs.
2. EVs are neat as a concept and have seen some strong growth in their market sector, but the caveat being it is still incredibly small.
3. EVs suck for towing ( range )
4. EVs depending on how they are made can be a quicker vehicle.
5. After researching multiple times, on easily a hundred different articles, writeups, papers and etc... they dont appear to be the solution, but one option to HELP lower emissions, but that is all dependent on user and grid structure.
6. As a personal choice I am way more interested in EVs non-Tesla. And I am interested in that growing market share.

 

[ticaf]

Please keep politics out of this.

Thank you for mentioning it (again!). It's amazing how EVs have become so political. It does not have to be, it's just a consumer product. You like it, you buy it, you don't, then nobody should be forcing you to buy one, simple.
Same thing with EVs and climate change, it does not have to be related. There are plenty of reasons to buy an EV beside climate change.

As far as reliability/quality, I'd say that it will suck to have an old Tesla, unless one is deep pocketed or the aftermarket manufacturers have affordable parts available. We will see how this will play out in a few years. With little market penetration, Tesla parts are going to be as expensive as VW parts. I cry when I see the price of parts of the wife's Hyundai vs my VW. And both cars have been problem free so far.

 

[Daemon64]

Turbo,

Also calling you out here. You defend EVs, talk about them quite a bit and in a positive light... the best I can tell from your signature is that you drive a 2001 f250 powerstroke... which is 15-20 mpg from googling... your vehicle is way worse for the environment, than my Q5 tdi, or even my other halfs 2011 wrx which gets better MPG on a fuel that pollutes less and we aren't even trying here....

Like isn't it a little hypocritical to talk up EVs so highly and you theoretically dont even own one?? Am I missing something here? Anyone: does he own a more efficient vehicle that I am unaware of. I am super happy to eat my own words. But I could more understand your positions and such if you regularly drive a BEV and the range, towing, charging network and etc... worked out for you.... do you have personal experiences that make your belief in electrics that much stronger? Maybe you know something that I dont.

 

[turbobrick240]

Are we talking EVs here, market share, battery life, alternatives and etc.. or do you want to talk about politics?

You're fairly new to the thread, but if you read back you'll find it quite wide ranging. If that bothers you, there are many other threads you could contribute constructively to. But I will do my best to avoid any more comments that could be construed as political. I feel very strongly on the subject, so sometimes that is difficult.

Bottom line: EVs are the future. We can either A. Accept it and be happy, or B. fight it and get defeated. I'd rather be happy.

 

[turbobrick240]

Turbo,
Also calling you out here. You defend EVs, talk about them quite a bit and in a positive light... the best I can tell from your signature is that you drive a 2001 f250 powerstroke... which is 15-20 mpg from googling... your vehicle is way worse for the environment, than my Q5 tdi, or even my other halfs 2011 wrx which gets better MPG on a fuel that pollutes less and we aren't even trying here....
Like isn't it a little hypocritical to talk up EVs so highly and you theoretically dont even own one?? Am I missing something here? Anyone: does he own a more efficient vehicle that I am unaware of. I am super happy to eat my own words. But I could more understand your positions and such if you regularly drive a BEV and the range, towing, charging network and etc... worked out for you.... do you have personal experiences that make your belief in electrics that much stronger? Maybe you know something that I dont.

I've put about 200 miles on my truck in the last several years, and ride my mountain bike as much as possible. I live on a large farm in the country and have cut my travel pretty considerably lately. I'm probably biased, but my acreage is quite beautiful- mixed fields, meadows, rolling hills, ponds, woodlot and marshland. I can find plenty to keep myself occupied on it. Thank you for your concern.

 

[Tin Man]

EV's represent a dependence on home charging and centralized control of personal vehicle transport. Just like autonomous driving, they are hyped beyond reasonable recognition. Futurists create their own argument space and spew nonsense about a lot of things. History proves otherwise in many cases so "I don't know" is the correct answer most of the time. Childish memes about being happy or not are worthless when you don't know or don't care.

 

[rotarykid]

Full EV tec is still at least a decade or two from becoming anything more than a feel good option for mostly the well off & rich's play thing. Or governments tool to give excuse to again have their feel good option in the fleet.

This will be the way it is for likely the rest of the time I am driving for the next ~4 decades or so....cheap oil for the forseeable future guarantees this outcome.....

This will not change until coal & other fossil fueled power generation, tail pipe shifting is ended in favor of use of battery lakes & similar energy storage is made wide spread for solar & wind power generation storage becomes the main way these things are charged.

The many 35-55+ mpgUS vw/audi/toyota/nissan/Isuzu/chevy/ect... diesel cars & small pickups like the many I've owned over last 40+ years of clocking millions of very fuel efficient/fuel sipping miles were far cleaner than anythig gasoline powered from any era or any of these currently coal powered/jet engine grid fast response power along with all of the fossil fueled tail pipe shifting full EV's of today...

Get back to me when oil prices are finally set above $100 a barrel, current prices make all electric options nothing more than a government mandated option no one really wants in the real world. .....

During the last shutdown to prevent virus spread gas hit below $1 a gal at many stations....

....When we start to loose the exstreme numbers of people again to this virus soon, in a couple weeks gas prices will see this crash again....with the record case numbers of covid-19 increasing/ records set daily we are heading for , crashing us towards full icu's across the south & the west. Towards another full shutdown again, not many car buyers of any sort out there right, electrics are a even harder sell now....

 

[kjclow]

Parking lot solar will have higher costs than a pure solar farm, due to the need to mount everything higher and deal with the asphalt (or concrete) parking surface, but should still be lower than something like residential rooftop.

I have a customer in NJ that covered their parking lot in panels. Gives them enough energy to meet their needs and put some back on the grid. Only issue they ran into was the first winter. They did not take into account the snow melt off the panels that would then drip and refreeze onto the cars and parking area. They have since installed gutters and are sending the water to their designated wetlands around their facility.

 

[kjclow]

Full EV tec is still at least a decade or two from becoming anything more than a feel good option for mostly the well off & rich's play thing. Or governments tool to give excuse to again have their feel good option in the fleet.
This will be the way it is for likely the rest of the time I am driving for the next ~4 decades or so....cheap oil for the forseeable future guarantees this outcome.....
This will not change until coal & other fossil fueled power generation, tail pipe shifting is ended in favor of use of battery lakes & similar energy storage is made wide spread for solar & wind power generation storage becomes the main way these things are charged.
The many 35-55+ mpgUS vw/audi/toyota/nissan/Isuzu/chevy/ect... diesel cars & small pickups like the many I've owned over last 40+ years of clocking millions of very fuel efficient/fuel sipping miles were far cleaner than anythig gasoline powered from any era or any of these currently coal powered/jet engine grid fast response power along with all of the fossil fueled tail pipe shifting full EV's of today...
Get back to me when oil prices are finally set above $100 a barrel, current prices make all electric options nothing more than a government mandated option no one really wants in the real world. .....
During the last shutdown to prevent virus spread gas hit below $1 a gal at many stations....
....When we start to loose the exstreme numbers of people again to this virus soon, in a couple weeks gas prices will see this crash again....with the record case numbers of covid-19 increasing/ records set daily we are heading for , crashing us towards full icu's across the south & the west. Towards another full shutdown again, not many car buyers of any sort out there right, electrics are a even harder sell now....

I'll add to your comments that come August/September, fuel prices will shift depending on whether or not the kids return full time to school. If the kids stay home, then all that diesel stored for the busses will have to be sold somewhere. I guess the possibility is that the refineries do not scale up diesel production assuming no school and get caught flat footed. The diesel prices will skyrocket as volume is moved from consumer sales to running busses. My crystal ball broke many years ago!

 

[turbobrick240]

Yeah, we might as well throw darts at a board to determine where oil prices are going in the next year or two. I picked up some shares in a solar ETF (TAN) back in March. They have been an absolute workhorse thus far. Really on a tear today.

 

[nwdiver]

Full EV tec is still at least a decade or two from becoming anything more than a feel good option for mostly the well off & rich's play thing. Or governments tool to give excuse to again have their feel good option in the fleet.
This will be the way it is for likely the rest of the time I am driving for the next ~4 decades or so....cheap oil for the forseeable future guarantees this outcome.....

A new EV will likely be cheaper than a new ICE in <5 years... not 40. Yes... the grid needs storage to integrate more wind and solar... wouldn't driving some of that storage around and killing two birds be the wisest option? Why not charge your car using mostly solar or wind that would have otherwise been curtailed if you didn't have an EV?

More EVs means more Solar and Wind. Not only do EVs not simply 'shift emissions' they can actively make the grid cleaner. But I'm pretty sure you knew that... you just choose to ignore it because it doesn't fit your narrative

 

[Tin Man]

A new EV will likely be cheaper than a new ICE in <5 years... not 40. Yes... the grid needs storage to integrate more wind and solar... wouldn't driving some of that storage around and killing two birds be the wisest option? Why not charge your car using mostly solar or wind that would have otherwise been curtailed if you didn't have an EV?

More EVs means more Solar and Wind. Not only do EVs not simply 'shift emissions' they can actively make the grid cleaner. But I'm pretty sure you knew that... you just choose to ignore it because it doesn't fit your narrative

He did mention it: "...currently coal powered/jet engine grid fast response power along with all of the fossil fueled tail pipe shifting full EV's of today.." but you chose to ignore it because it doesn't fit your narrative...he's not talking about the future but "currently."

The argument that EV's can store unused solar and wind power is cute since it doesn't apply to most current grids especially to those that use fossil fuels and "shift" pollution to power plants especially at night when most EV's recharge. At least not until we have legitimately enough capacity to store electricity from the daytime dedicated to it and have enough cost-effective ways to produce electricity from renewable resources.

The "wisest option" should not include "feel good" virtue-signaling taxpayer-funded "play things for the rich".... The whole point is to see that economics will likely make EV's a boutique item in a faltering post-Covid economy. But I hope not.

 

[nwdiver]

He did mention it: "...currently coal powered/jet engine grid fast response power along with all of the fossil fueled tail pipe shifting full EV's of today.." but you chose to ignore it because it doesn't fit your narrative...he's not talking about the future but "currently."

The argument that EV's can store unused solar and wind power is cute since it doesn't apply to most current grids especially to those that use fossil fuels and "shift" pollution to power plants especially at night when most EV's recharge. At least not until we have legitimately enough capacity to store electricity from the daytime dedicated to it and have enough cost-effective ways to produce electricity from renewable resources.

The "wisest option" should not include "feel good" virtue-signaling taxpayer-funded "play things for the rich".... The whole point is to see that economics will likely make EV's a boutique item in a faltering post-Covid economy. But I hope not.

????? LOL.... how am I ignoring it when you addressed my not ignoring it in your second paragraph???? This idea that EVs are just shifted emissions is beyond idiotic to the point that it has to be intentional stupidity. It's the complete opposite.

Using EVs to reduce curtailment likely now applies to MOST people if not most grids and DEFINITELY most EVs. CAISO tosses out enough solar PV due to curtailment to charge every EV in CA. It certainly applies to my grid 'SPP' which covers several states. It's only cute if you consider Math and Physics 'cute'... which is a bit weird but whatever floats your boat.

This isn't complicated.... there's regularly surplus wind or solar and that surplus is increasing exponentially. We're adding >20x more solar and wind than EV consumption annually. This will probably be the next frontier for Tesla. Cost of electricity is negative because there's too much wind? Increase the charge rate of cars that are plugged in by 150MW. Wind has decreased? Decrease the charge rate by 200MW. Math. Physics.

 

[Tin Man]

Yes, of course there is a surplus. You even admit it. How does it translate "today"? Not very well, yet. Conveniently ignoring the daytime/nightime difference in available electricity, which accordingly should eliminate the need for fossil fuel, is no laughing matter, ha ha.

 

[compu_85]

EV's represent a dependence on home charging and centralized control of personal vehicle transport. Just like autonomous driving, they are hyped beyond reasonable recognition.

Sorry I missed your comment, we were too busy enjoying a 12,000 mile road trip in our Model 3... a good portion of which has been driving by Autopilot.

(35 min was the time estimate to get from 19% to 80%, we left after being plugged in for 6 minutes at 53%)


-J

 

[tikal]

Everybody knows that JD Power are phony, pay to play awards. Tesla never pays fools like them, so the results aren't surprising. The truly important metric is customer satisfaction. Tesla has the highest customer satisfaction ratings (unpaid ratings) of any automaker.

Ok, so what would be a reliable independent alternative to JD Power in addition to opinions of people?

 

[tikal]

Tesla secures new cobalt deal as it phases out the controversial mineral

Tesla secures new cobalt deal as it phases out the controversial mineral

Interesting article regarding Cobalt and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Reading the comments to this article (now closed) it was stated that "diesel used Cobalt during desulphurization". If true this is something that brings a commonality between TDIs and EVs besides high torque and efficiency.

 

[Daemon64]

Q4 Etron Sportback world premiere 1:15 EDT Live today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EV3cT3g9SA&feature=emb_title

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Ok, so what would be a reliable independent alternative to JD Power in addition to opinions of people?

Independent of Tesla reviews, JD Power is simply a profit seeking business that trains auto makers, dealers, and other providers to coach customers to give good reviews. Not a reliable source in my opinion, any more than Yelp is a good restaurant review resource. Or D&B is a good business research tool. For all these companies, their goals get in the way of filling their original mission. Or maybe their mission always put profit first.

 

[turbobrick240]

Tesla secures new cobalt deal as it phases out the controversial mineral

Interesting article regarding Cobalt and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Reading the comments to this article (now closed) it was stated that "diesel used Cobalt during desulphurization". If true this is something that brings a commonality between TDIs and EVs besides high torque and efficiency.

Yes, cobalt has made a resurgence as an industrial catalyst. It's much cheaper than the rhodium, palladium, platinum, and other precious metal alternatives. In particular, it sees a lot of use in the catalysis of biofuels.

https://phys-org.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/phys.org/news/2012-11-cobalt-discovery-precious-metals-industrial.amp?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15941396224269&amp_ct=1594140046541&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fphys.org%2Fnews%2F2012-11-cobalt-discovery-precious-metals-industrial.amp%23aoh%3D15941396224269%26amp_ct%3D1594140046541%26referrer%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com%26amp_tf%3DFrom%2520%25251%2524s

This link goes into some technical detail regarding cobalt catalysts in Fischer-Tropsch synthesis of syngas from biomass. Probably only of interest if you find F-T synthesis fascinating, as do I:
http://scholar.google.com/scholar_url?url=http://www.academia.edu/download/51792666/AS_397564127006720_1471798082392_content_1.pdf&hl=en&sa=X&scisig=AAGBfm0dqfTG4W559UQ3Nt9kyGEV4OKa4g&nossl=1&oi=scholarr

 

[Tin Man]

Sorry I missed your comment, we were too busy enjoying a 12,000 mile road trip in our Model 3... a good portion of which has been driving by Autopilot.

(35 min was the time estimate to get from 19% to 80%, we left after being plugged in for 6 minutes at 53%)


-J

12,000 miles! Cool. Tesla has a unique charging network. Not for other EV's.

 

[compu_85]

Teslas are to other EVs as VW TDIs were to the rest of the diesel car market in 2014.

Saying that it's hard to find charging now is like saying it's hard to find diesel fuel in 2000.