Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

[tadawson]

7 hours? You can keep it! 250 miles on the Interstate system for me is closer to 3, and *zero* need to stop . . .

 

[AntonLargiader]

I just watched an online Tesla 3 where the guy did 250 miles in over 7 hours with two stops to recharge along the way

Link?

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Lots of Tesla drivers like to keep the batteries between 10% and 60% charged. They charge faster in that window, but it limits miles between charges to 150-175 miles depending on driving style and weather.

 

[AntonLargiader]

My in-laws have a P85 which was originally good for 300 miles but was officially downrated to 270 around the time they got it. When they travel, they recharge every 100~120 miles. It's just how they are. Then again, they're also retired and not in a rush.

If I were in their shoes, I'd be maxxing it out but of course you are constrained by the location of the last available charging station.

250 miles in a model 3 sounds like a one-recharge trip (depends on the exact version), but I'm sure there are details. Hence the request for the actual story.

 

[nayr]

The Model S Long Range + just got rated for a 402 mile range: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/tes...el-s-long-range-plus-says-range-improved.html

 

[turbobrick240]

But if you can't drive 24 hours straight without stopping, I'm not interested. Just give me some of those NASA diapers and a bottle of amphetamines and it's road trip time!
Thank you b100tdi and Anton for the helpful tips regarding the Volt. The gen2 looks interesting, but I think a gen1 suits my budget better for a short term vehicle.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

More than once I've driven 450-500 miles in my Wagon without stopping. Usually that's a little over a half tank of fuel.

 

[kjclow]

I think I'm sitting at about 450 miles on the truck with about a quarter of a tank left. I think it gave me dte of around 150 miles when I pulled in the drive last night. Unless I'm on the road and need the stop, I'm usually 500+ miles per fill at 23-24 gallons. The JSW, after fix, still gives me about 500 miles per fill. So that 270 mile drive, I'd be tempted to make the round trip on a single tank.

 

[nayr]

But if you can't drive 24 hours straight without stopping, I'm not interested. Just give me some of those NASA diapers and a bottle of amphetamines and it's road trip time!

Model S went from 250 miles to 400 miles in like 5y, if the same % range boost comes in the next 5y could end up with a ~700 mile EV and I think that would relieve most people's range anxiety.. 600 miles is about the limit most people are willing to drive per day, 9-10h behind the wheel is enough for me and it would be full by the time I wake up.

A 700-1000 mile range EV might be attractive for the apartment dwellers too, If you got a short city commute that charge could be enough to get to work for a full month, so parking it at a 3rd party charging station for a few hours once a month or so dont seem that bad if your apartment wont provide methods for charging.

 

[oilhammer]

The price is still out of reach for many of us peons. If you cannot afford one that goes 200 miles on a charge, you likely are not going to make the product less costly with doubling the range.

I find it comical that Tesla still has no pricing or "starting at" on their website like literally ever other carmaker has.

 

[ticaf]

I find it comical that Tesla still has no pricing or "starting at" on their website like literally ever other carmaker has.

You know the saying, "If one is asking how much it is, one cannot afford it".

For peons like us, it only makes sense to buy them used.

 

[SilverGhost]

Was just looking at eGolfs again. Can get a 2015 SEL premium for $11k and 47k miles on it. Or 2016 SE for $11.9K with 20K miles. SEL is 950 miles away and SE is 45 miles.

I was looking into solar again and found out I cannot install more than 105% capacity compared to expected usage. FPL does net metering so I figure one reason is they don't want people with huge credits, but unless the ever pay out I don't see the issue.

Also was told the regulatory reason why your solar shuts off during a power outage is because panels don't produce enough stable power on their own. You need storage or line power to fill in and stabilize the voltage. Installer said only real backup solution is Tesla and they are over priced/under perform. He's excited for a couple solutions coming soon from Generac and another company.

It was bigger issue when gas was costing me $150/mo and that's about what the note on a car would be. But my 1.8T JATCO just turned over 200k and original cylinder head and trans. Gotta be ready for when turbo/trans/etc. has enough and somehow takes the cylinder head with it. Keep putting off the rear main because of the JATCO packaging.

Jason

 

[oilhammer]

Heh, my 1.8t just turned 240k.... and its been pushing an AWD Passat around the whole time. Not worried, really. The AWM is a good engine.

ticaf, the "call for pricing' game is a bit snooty for a car that is not an exotic. Audi has no problem listing starting prices on $80k+ cars.

 

[ticaf]

ticaf, the "call for pricing' game is a bit snooty for a car that is not an exotic. Audi has no problem listing starting prices on $80k+ cars.

I totally agree with you. tried to make a joke...

I guess they will put more visible pricing on their website when they will have real competition.

 

[nayr]

Battery Prices are dropping dramatically, Commercial off the shelf drop in LFP is almost reaching parity with lead house banks.. I've got a 30lb LFP in my camper w/a 10 year warranty, that does the job of >300lbs of Deep Cycle lead batteries and with my large stand alone solar array it can fully recharge in ~2.5h of sunlight.. I paid a little more for the Lithium than I'd of for high end house batteries from a lead source, but with the weight savings and charge time accounted for its a better deal..

Not long ago it'd of cost 5-10x the cost to do this, and demand is still more than the supply.. dont seem unreasonable another decade down the line that high range packs are gonna be a fraction of what they are today.

 

[ticaf]

Battery Prices are dropping dramatically, Commercial off the shelf drop in LFP is almost reaching parity with lead house banks.. I've got a 30lb LFP in my camper w/a 10 year warranty, that does the job of >300lbs of Deep Cycle lead batteries and with my large stand alone solar array it can fully recharge in ~2.5h of sunlight.. I paid a little more for the Lithium than I'd of for high end house batteries from a lead source, but with the weight savings and charge time accounted for its a better deal..

Not long ago it'd of cost 5-10x the cost to do this, and demand is still more than the supply.. dont seem unreasonable another decade down the line that high range packs are gonna be a fraction of what they are today.

Yes, typically the price of the product is generally proportional to its weight. Since LFP battery have more energy density than Lead batteries, they will tend to be cheaper eventually as the market adjusts to demand. Which is also why I believe it will be very difficult for BEV to reach 'purchase' price parity with ICE considering one need to mine an extra 1000lbs of expensive chemicals to build the BEV.

Anyway, where did you get your LFP batteries ? I've been looking for some. even looked at used Tesla batteries on eBay. Prices are kind of reasonable, but I'm looking for rock bottom prices.

 

[DPM]

Was just looking at eGolfs again. Can get a 2015 SEL premium for $11k and 47k miles on it. Or 2016 SE for $11.9K with 20K miles. SEL is 950 miles away and SE is 45 miles.

I was looking into solar again and found out I cannot install more than 105% capacity compared to expected usage. FPL does net metering so I figure one reason is they don't want people with huge credits, but unless the ever pay out I don't see the issue.

Also was told the regulatory reason why your solar shuts off during a power outage is because panels don't produce enough stable power on their own. You need storage or line power to fill in and stabilize the voltage. Installer said only real backup solution is Tesla and they are over priced/under perform. He's excited for a couple solutions coming soon from Generac and another company.

It was bigger issue when gas was costing me $150/mo and that's about what the note on a car would be. But my 1.8T JATCO just turned over 200k and original cylinder head and trans. Gotta be ready for when turbo/trans/etc. has enough and somehow takes the cylinder head with it. Keep putting off the rear main because of the JATCO packaging.

Jason

The real reason solar shuts off during a power failure (unless you've an islanded system) is because transformers work both ways and your solar still pushing power into the grid could KILL a lineman working on a repair some distance way...

 

[nayr]

Anyway, where did you get your LFP batteries ? I've been looking for some. even looked at used Tesla batteries on eBay. Prices are kind of reasonable, but I'm looking for rock bottom prices.

I'm using a BattleBorn, if I were to do it over again tho I'd probably get a Victron w/external BMS if I was going for an off the shelf, but now I'm comfortable enough w/my lithium knowledge and experience I'd likely just build my next one, just for direct access to each cell and BMS, and because raw prismatic cells are pretty cheap.. but I like the 10y warranty, and they already replaced it once because the first one I bought had developed a fault after a year so there is value in getting a commercial battery instead of DIY.

Batteries are pretty simple things, far less complex and labor intensive than an ICE.. Most engines are still hand built now days with real human beings doing most of the work.. Batteries are fully automated, pour supplies in one end, batteries come out the other.. eventually its not gonna cost a whole lot more than the raw materials.

 

[AntonLargiader]

The real reason solar shuts off during a power failure (unless you've an islanded system) is because transformers work both ways and your solar still pushing power into the grid could KILL a lineman working on a repair some distance way...

Also you want power or no power, not a little bit of power and then everyone has brownouts and damaged equipment. And on top of that there's no frequency to sync at without the grid.

 

[ticaf]

I'm using a BattleBorn, if I were to do it over again tho I'd probably get a Victron w/external BMS if I was going for an off the shelf, but now I'm comfortable enough w/my lithium knowledge and experience I'd likely just build my next one, just for direct access to each cell and BMS, and because raw prismatic cells are pretty cheap.. but I like the 10y warranty, and they already replaced it once because the first one I bought had developed a fault after a year so there is value in getting a commercial battery instead of DIY.
Batteries are pretty simple things, far less complex and labor intensive than an ICE.. Most engines are still hand built now days with real human beings doing most of the work.. Batteries are fully automated, pour supplies in one end, batteries come out the other.. eventually its not gonna cost a whole lot more than the raw materials.

Just did quick lookup for BattleBorn/Victron. Seems like price is still around $800/1kWh give or take. Tesla batteries are going for $200/kWh right now on eBay, but I have not had the time to figure out the BMS and stuff for them.
The industry is targeting $100/kWh, I can't wait for that to happen (retail price).
On a side note, you said "Batteries are pretty simple things". It looks simple on the outside, but I can tell you it CAN be way more complicated than an ICE. Lots of brains are needed to figure out battery chemistry, particularly the electrolyte, between liquid, gel, and solids... I work with people doing research on solid state lithium ion battery. And figuring out how to move ions/electrons is not for the faint of heart .

 

[GoFaster]

Model S went from 250 miles to 400 miles in like 5y, if the same % range boost comes in the next 5y could end up with a ~700 mile EV and I think that would relieve most people's range anxiety.. 600 miles is about the limit most people are willing to drive per day, 9-10h behind the wheel is enough for me and it would be full by the time I wake up.
A 700-1000 mile range EV might be attractive for the apartment dwellers too, If you got a short city commute that charge could be enough to get to work for a full month, so parking it at a 3rd party charging station for a few hours once a month or so dont seem that bad if your apartment wont provide methods for charging.

Extreme range numbers won't be what gets EVs to be mass-market. Normal (300 - 400 km) range combined with competitive pricing AND fast-chargers (150 kW minimum) at every motorway rest stop (plus countless other places) is what will do it.

Most people stop for a coffee, washroom break, or a meal every few hours anyhow. (I certainly do.) Plug it in, have your break, unplug the now-fully-charged car, keep going.

The worst-case condition for my daily-driver vehicle is the Toronto-Windsor-Toronto in one day run. A fast-charger at the km 60 and/or km 150 rest stops (I stop there anyhow) would make that doable with a 300-km-range EV. Last time I was down that way, I saw the sign stating that they were coming soon ... There is a fair chance that my next daily driver will be a Chevrolet Bolt or whatever succeeds it.

 

[AntonLargiader]

People won't buy massive batteries so they only have to charge once a month. Yes, it's theoretically attractive for apartment dwellers but once a month is a fringe desire, sort of like the 600+ mile nonstop range. Too much battery tied up in theory rather than in actual use.

If you have a short city commute, e-bikes can be great options. Charge inside your house.

The people who want to pull two or maybe three 250 mile stints in a day, that's more mainstream for the distance crowd. And for that you need rapid charging and good distribution of charging facilities.

All that said, Model 3s have already crossed the country in under 50 hours.

Model S went from 250 miles to 400 miles in like 5y, if the same % range boost comes in the next 5y could end up with a ~700 mile EV and I think that would relieve most people's range anxiety.. 600 miles is about the limit most people are willing to drive per day, 9-10h behind the wheel is enough for me and it would be full by the time I wake up.
A 700-1000 mile range EV might be attractive for the apartment dwellers too, If you got a short city commute that charge could be enough to get to work for a full month, so parking it at a 3rd party charging station for a few hours once a month or so dont seem that bad if your apartment wont provide methods for charging.

 

[turbobrick240]

All that said, Model 3s have already crossed the county in under 50 hours.

That's pretty amazing. Rumor is there's a 100 KWh Model 3 in the works.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Most people stop for a coffee, washroom break, or a meal every few hours anyhow. (I certainly do.) Plug it in, have your break, unplug the now-fully-charged car, keep going.

EV drivers like to promote this concept, but it's flawed in my opinion, for many reasons. When Car & Driver ran a long-term test of a Tesla Model S, they noted that they ended buying food and drink where there were chargers, instead of choosing where they wanted to stop on road trips. When I traveled with my dog I'd stop at rest areas, not service areas, because he liked being walked in the quieter environment. And since it's pretty rare for me to have to refuel my Wagon during a day's drive (700+ mile range), we could stop anywhere we wanted.

Second, I drive to NYC pretty frequently. No need to refuel for the 480 mile round trip in my TDI. I've yet to see a parking garage in Manhattan with chargers. And sometimes I get lucky and get to park on the street. So I'd have to stop during the return trip in an EV. Since those days tend to be long already, adding 30-40 minutes isn't that appealing. I frequently make that 3-4 hour drive without any stops.

An EV with a 200-300 mile range would work well for me for local trips. But I can't see it for road trips. I've driven to Madison WI several times in the last 18 months: it's about 1,200 miles each way. I've done a one-way in a day more than once, takes about 18 hours. I've scheduled that drive in a Model 3, and charging would add 4-6 hours, making it impossible to drive in a day.

I know these may sound like extreme examples, but I don't think I'm alone in using my car this way. ICEs make it easy, even if they don't have a TDIs range. TDIs make it even easier.

 

[nicklockard]

People won't buy massive batteries so they only have to charge once a month. Yes, it's theoretically attractive for apartment dwellers but once a month is a fringe desire, sort of like the 600+ mile nonstop range. Too much battery tied up in theory rather than in actual use.
If you have a short city commute, e-bikes can be great options. Charge inside your house.
The people who want to pull two or maybe three 250 mile stints in a day, that's more mainstream for the distance crowd. And for that you need rapid charging and good distribution of charging facilities.
All that said, Model 3s have already crossed the county in under 50 hours.

Hmm, haven't tried, but I might be able to cross my county in 50 hours, walking.

 

[nayr]

People won't buy massive batteries so they only have to charge once a month. Yes, it's theoretically attractive for apartment dwellers but once a month is a fringe desire, sort of like the 600+ mile nonstop range. Too much battery tied up in theory rather than in actual use.
If you have a short city commute, e-bikes can be great options. Charge inside your house.
The people who want to pull two or maybe three 250 mile stints in a day, that's more mainstream for the distance crowd. And for that you need rapid charging and good distribution of charging facilities.
All that said, Model 3s have already crossed the county in under 50 hours.

even if you bike every day like some of my co-workers who live within range to tolerate that nonsense all year long, they still got vehicles so they can travel.. If you just wanna go to a ski resort with a full day of traffic and heating needed between the trip up and down you'd probably be very interested in an extended range vehicle..

range anxiety has a bigger factor on depressing EV sales than you think, hell look at all the anxiety in this thread from TDI owners that can do >500 miles non stop easy.. If they start releasing big number EV's even if most of it goes unused most of the time I think you'll find adoption picks up.. We're gonna get long range EV's far before we get battery chemistries in mass production that can fully charge in the time it takes me to take a **** and grab a coffee.

heck I dont mind if I gotta rent a small backpack trailer I can hot swap in 10mins if thats what it takes.. but thats gonna be long range design.. I think 700-1000 mile range is gonna be sweet spot where everyone stops caring about how fast it charges or if they can get a nightly charge.

 

[Fix_Until_Broke]

I lust for a Tesla Model S and aside from the fact that they cost half as much as my house(!) I routinely do 250 mile one way drives (30+/year) and there are zero chargers on this route, a few 10 miles off route and only 2 of them super chargers. I figure I need a vehicle rated at 420+ miles of range to account for the miles, having heat/cooling, battery conditioning when cold, having a buffer at each end of the battery (operate between 10 and 90%) and 10% battery range degradation over the life of the vehicle. Doing all the math on this requires a range of ~425 miles

425 to start
382.5 allowing for 10% charge capacity degradation
305.6 allowing for usage between 10% and 90%

This leaves ~55 miles of safety factor (~100 miles total if you run to 0% battery) for things like wind, rain, heat, air conditioning, battery warming if cold, etc. On "normal" temperatures this will not be a big deal, but when it's -7F or +97F, the last place I want to be is on the side of the road with an empty battery 30-50 miles from my destination. This also does not take into consideration that I pull a trailer on this trip 5-10 times/year.

There's the EPA reported range and the real operating/useful range. From what I've read, the occasional excursion to 0 or 100% battery charge doesn't have a significant effect on battery life, but doing this regularly does.

The latest Model S Long Range + is something like 402 miles, so it's getting close. Maybe in 5 years when they're available on the used market I'll consider picking one up. Until then I'll keep driving my TDI

 

[AntonLargiader]

If they start releasing big number EV's even if most of it goes unused most of the time I think you'll find adoption picks up.. We're gonna get long range EV's far before we get battery chemistries in mass production that can fully charge in the time it takes me to take a **** and grab a coffee.

With ICE vehicles you can't just walk straight in and do that stuff; you need to pump/pay etc, then move the car, THEN you get time to go in and so forth. Traveling with a family a gas stop is a half hour thing no matter what. Plugging in and walking inside for 20~25 minutes (which can get you about 200 miles on the V3 supercharger depending on the SOC) is pretty much the same thing. Actually sit down with a sandwich, now you're getting 250+ miles.

If an extra five or ten minutes on long trips is so overwhelmingly dominant in your evaluation of an EV as your car, don't get one! Simple. People who want to eat on-the-go out of a cooler and pee into a bottle AND are likely to pony up the cost of a 1000-mile EV are probably so few and far between that I don't see the manufacturers making a big push to reach them. Placing fast chargers in the right spots is a way better solution.

heck I don't mind if I gotta rent a small backpack trailer I can hot swap in 10mins if thats what it takes.. but thats gonna be long range design.. I think 700-1000 mile range is gonna be sweet spot where everyone stops caring about how fast it charges or if they can get a nightly charge.

Sounds like a solution for the fringe cases, but people are doing trips with what's out there now.

 

[SilverGhost]

The real reason solar shuts off during a power failure (unless you've an islanded system) is because transformers work both ways and your solar still pushing power into the grid could KILL a lineman working on a repair some distance way...

Sorry, but I went back into the permitting and talked to my installer with 40+years. I brought this point up and was corrected by the authority issuing the permits and the installer, who has been doing this 40+ years, that the reason is voltage stabilization (brown outs) and frequency sync, NOT back feed into the grid.

Installer made a good point - backup generators would not be installed into mains panel if this was an issue. The generator could not start if there was no grid power and why run a generator (at much higher cost and noise) instead of just using grid power?

Auto switch over devices could handle keeping solar and grid separated, like they do for generators. But they are not installed unless battery backups are installed. The batteries cover the load leveling and the solar keeps them charged.

Jason

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Generators don't put power into the grid. When your generator is running the house's connection to the grid shuts down.