Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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ticaf

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I'm not sure how you arrived at that conclusion, but it is absolutely the result of faulty thought processes, imo. The Germans are jumping through hoops and cutting through red tape left and right to get Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory built rapidly. And the site is taking shape at an impressive rate! : https://youtu.be/sMO5Di0QQDs
it won't be the first time my thought processes go awry, lol.

Tesla is a great company and will definitely lead the way in EV technology. And I believe they will be very successful too.

My comment is more related to the 'decarbonisation' and the 'safe the planet' thinking process. My opinion is that they won't make a direct impact, an indirect impact maybe, by inspiring other makers. Think of it like Apple, great company, great leader, innovative, so on. But most of the world can't afford their products, and just buy $100 smartphones. Tesla is the same, Musk said their smallest car would be the Model 3, that's it. That's the equivalent of the BMW 3, or Audi A4, most of the world can't afford that. Heck, I can't afford that. Hopefully, somebody will make that '$100 smartphone' like EV equivalent.
 

turbobrick240

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The only reason we're going to have $25k EVs in a few years is because Tesla proved out the concept of modern EVs and made them desirable. They broke the ground, and now all of the manufacturers can sow their crop (of EV's).
 

bhtooefr

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...let's just say Musk's forward looking statements about what Tesla is or isn't going to do are not the most reliable.

And, they're having the Chinese division do a design for a smaller car below the Model 3, so... (Part of the problem is that the Model 3 is big for Europe, in general. It's not people wanting smaller EVs for a lower carbon footprint, it's people wanting smaller EVs because a Model 3 barely fits.)
 

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It makes a lot of sense to charge "whatever the market will bear" when your company consistently loses money in the hope that the balance sheet goes into the black.

It doesn't make sense to assume a version of Moore's Law will prevail, as battery tech has been slow to advance for over 100 years now.

Its good to see competition and innovation in the market. Just not all innovation as there are often unintended consequences and additional costs. Assume what you will, the development of EV's hasn't found its sustainable state, yet....
 

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Battery tech has been slow to advance? Somebody ought to notify the Nobel folks that they goofed last year when they awarded the Nobel Prize to John Goodenough and the other two scientists responsible for inventing the Li-ion battery. I guess it wasn't really much of an achievement. :rolleyes:
 

tikal

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It is all relative on how you compare 'technology advances' in your mind.

If you are thinking that the EV revolution is going to be like the smartphone revolution that started around 2007, you will be sorely disappointed or you are already disappointed.

The ICE vehicles are not going to become extinct the way the flip phones have become extinct, no matter how many Noble Prizes are awarded for Li-Ion battery technology breakthroughs.

Maybe in a few years I will be proven wrong but I have my 'severe doubts'.
 

turbobrick240

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Those flip phones aren't extinct (believe it or not)- my neighbor bought a brand new one last week. I also very much doubt that ICEV's will disappear entirely from the roads anytime this decade.
 

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turbobrick240

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Smart phones wouldn't be nearly as slick if you had to tote around a 10 lb lead acid battery, or replace a dozen AA's every day. The tech has come a long way, and still has plenty of room for improvement.
 

Tin Man

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Smart phones wouldn't be nearly as slick if you had to tote around a 10 lb lead acid battery, or replace a dozen AA's every day. The tech has come a long way, and still has plenty of room for improvement.
Yeah every 40 years or so so far. But maybe the ICE will be shelved and the need for high power in a small space becomes reality: hydrogen?

PS: still can't get an iPhone who's battery lasts long enough.... and its been, uh, 10 years
 

Nuje

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The smartphone / portable electronics comparison isn't very good because most of the "power" gains in smartphones (and laptops and the like) is due to making more efficient processors.

The electric motor is already extremely efficient, and unfortunately, no amount of engineering on the powertrain will make it require any less energy to drag 1500-2000kg up and over hills at 100+km/h (aerodynamic improvements aside).
 

Tin Man

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We’re not prepared for the end of Moore’s Law

"Gordon Moore’s 1965 forecast that the number of components on an integrated circuit would double every year until it reached an astonishing 65,000 by 1975 is the greatest technological prediction of the last half-century. When it proved correct in 1975, he revised what has become known as Moore’s Law to a doubling of transistors on a chip every two years."
 

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Energy density isn't the only area where major improvements are being made in Li-ion batteries. Cost per KWh, higher C(harge) rate, and durability are equally important. Apparently Tesla is now confident enough in the durability of their current production chemistry that they are about to enable vehicle to grid and vehicle to vehicle power flow. This is a really big deal.
 

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turbobrick240

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Microbial fuel cells sound interesting- though not really batteries. Methane digesters basically do the same thing, except they produce methane rather than electrons. Bill Gates has a tendency to pick dead ends in the energy arena.
 

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Ok, maybe even for decades for ICEVs.
I heard the same thing about manual transmissions ~15 years ago and I was one of those people. Now they've all but disappeared in new cars. Automatics got better and cheaper. EVs should be at parity with ICE in <5 years. After that it's going to be a very fast decline in ICE sales.

Once someone experiences the convenience of an Automatic there's very little reason to drive a Manual. Once most people experience the convenience of an EV there's very little reason to go back to the hassle of an ICE.
 

Tin Man

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Great! No more hassles recharging - will be nice to recharge on the road in 5 minutes and be on my way...
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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I heard the same thing about manual transmissions ~15 years ago and I was one of those people. Now they've all but disappeared in new cars. Automatics got better and cheaper. EVs should be at parity with ICE in <5 years. After that it's going to be a very fast decline in ICE sales.
Once someone experiences the convenience of an Automatic there's very little reason to drive a Manual. Once most people experience the convenience of an EV there's very little reason to go back to the hassle of an ICE.
EPA certification requirements and emissions standards have has as much to do with the diminishing availability of manual transmissions as has demand.

It's not all about convenience and saving effort. I still use a fireplace in my home. I write with a fountain pen at times. And I get far more pleasure driving a car with a good manual transmission than any automatic. And I like ICEs, especially compression ignition ones.

It doesn't make me a thowback or someone resisting progress any more than people who like to ride horses or sail boats (I like that, too). Some things are just more rewarding and fun.
 

ticaf

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I heard the same thing about manual transmissions ~15 years ago and I was one of those people. Now they've all but disappeared in new cars. Automatics got better and cheaper. EVs should be at parity with ICE in <5 years. After that it's going to be a very fast decline in ICE sales.
Once someone experiences the convenience of an Automatic there's very little reason to drive a Manual. Once most people experience the convenience of an EV there's very little reason to go back to the hassle of an ICE.
What you say about manual transmissions is true in the USA. However, worldwide, the manual transmission is still the most common.
And that brings an interesting discussion about why 'some' nation will make the transition and 'some' won't.
If we look at the history of automatic transmissions, in the early days they may have been convenient, but gosh, how could we stand those slushboxes. some with only 3 speed, slushing all the time, with the feeling of loosing power and torque.
Nowadays, newer automatics whether with torque converters or dual clutches are almost perfect, so the choice is obvious for most people. but even in the late 2000s there were still some crappy automatics out there.
Now why would let's say most Europeans choose a manual?
1. they don't mind shifting, it's a second nature.
2. it's cheaper to buy
3. it's lighter and typically more fuel efficient.
4. it's simple and typically doesn't break. In Europe, every chain shops or mechanics will change the clutch for a very small price compared to here.

My point is, that we Americans, were early adopters of automatic transmissions at a time when they were far from better alternative to a manual. So it's possible, 'some' nation would adopt EVs completely long before they are perfect.

Now, of course they are plenty of reasons, why EVs are debatable now.
They are really expensive (new), and price parity is not there at all.
To compare what is comparable:
Price difference between a Golf TSI and e-Golf is around $10k for 2019. For some people that 10k extra is worth it. To me I can't justify it. Not to mention, sometimes , one just doesn't have the extra 10k to spend, or they would have not bought a Golf in the first place.
 
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DPM

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Except in Europe automatics are becoming more popular because efficiency losses are diminishing, emissions are easier to control, and many driver assistance aids require full control of the drivetrain.
 

bhtooefr

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And then, even in some efficiency-sensitive markets like Japan, automatics have US levels of penetration.

(Japan just went for CVTs much earlier to offset the efficiency losses.)
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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I was watching a review of the new Silverado, and was kind of stunned by how prevalent failures are for their V8 cylinder deactivation mechanisms. According to the video, the deactivation can partially fail, causing oil consumption and eventual engine demise, usually starting at the 80K mile range. I wonder how this is acceptable to anyone buying a $50K vehicle. Perhaps people are ignorant, and just run out the lease and get the next one, leaving the second or third owner to deal with the failure and, essentially, a totaled vehicle.
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
I was watching a review of the new Silverado, and was kind of stunned by how prevalent failures are for their V8 cylinder deactivation mechanisms. According to the video, the deactivation can partially fail, causing oil consumption and eventual engine demise, usually starting at the 80K mile range. I wonder how this is acceptable to anyone buying a $50K vehicle. Perhaps people are ignorant, and just run out the lease and get the next one, leaving the second or third owner to deal with the failure and, essentially, a totaled vehicle.
We see those CONSTANTLY, too. But all the old V8s soldier on just fine. The fleets that are smart have kept their old(er) trucks, for as long as they possibly can. Of course, some get eventually taken out of service from crashes, floods, tornados, tooef, etc. but if you can take reasonably decent care of them they'll hold up mechanically just fine. Too bad they rust so bad.

On the newer GM V8s, though, I think a lot of it is the 0w20 oil. If an engine consumed 1 qt of 5w30 every 2500 miles, that is not so bad. Not great, but you can deal with it. But change to 0w20 and that oil consumption figure literally doubles. Now add in all the tiny little passages under the intake, the cylinder deactivation nonsense seriously looks like an old school automatic transmission valve body inside, the passages are THAT small, and ANY bit of sludge or debris causes all kinds of issues. They may have anticipated some of this, as the crankcase fill went from 6 quarts to 8 quarts. Oddly enough, the revised updated V6s still spec 5w30, do not have cylinder deactivation (well, I suppose two are ALWAYS deactivated), hold 6 quarts, and don't seem nearly as prone to failure as the V8s. They also make as much power as the older V8s do, but rednecks cannot grasp this, so they have to get the V8. You should see the jaws drop when they find out you can buy a FOUR CYLINDER Silverado. :p
 

ticaf

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Except in Europe automatics are becoming more popular because efficiency losses are diminishing, emissions are easier to control, and many driver assistance aids require full control of the drivetrain.
I'm not sure if that's true overall. I see you are in Ireland, maybe that's the case there.
Here is the stats:

As one can see, there has been slow adoption of automatic transmission in the small car category (which is the most popular in Europe). Note that in the luxury segment, it is similar to the USA, other wise, I'd eyeball an average of 20% of automatic trannys in Europe.

In 2019, the top-selling car models in Europe were again the Volkswagen Golf, Renault Clio, VW Polo, and Ford Fiesta. In full-year 2019, the Volkswagen Golf was again the best-selling car model in the European Union (EU)

Source:https://theicct.org/sites/default/f...hicle_market_statistics_20192020_20191216.pdf
 

DPM

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But remember that fleet purchases will also skew the stats. there's no doubt a lot of Golfs are sold, but they'd be a popular choice for Police, Councils, mobile sales reps etc.

Anecdotally in the UK and Ireland there's a massive shift to SUVs of around the same size- Tiguan, Qashqui etc.
 

ticaf

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Anecdotally in the UK and Ireland there's a massive shift to SUVs of around the same size- Tiguan, Qashqui etc.
I go to Europe every other year or so, and yes, people are buying more SUVs for sure. Why are you guys copying us?:D
 
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