Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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Daemon64

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I think you must be looking at some old data. In my previous link the March 2020 EV marketshare in the UK shows BEV's outnumbering PHEV's nearly 2:1. In this link of March 2020 marketshare in Germany the ratio is roughly 1:1. https://cleantechnica-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/cleantechnica.com/2020/04/04/germany-hits-record-9-2-ev-market-share-in-march-tesla-model-3-1/amp/?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15862297664001&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fcleantechnica.com%2F2020%2F04%2F04%2Fgermany-hits-record-9-2-ev-market-share-in-march-tesla-model-3-1%2F
PHEV's are great. After living with one for a year or two most owners are ready to go full BEV.
My data is based on a year by year global model. Looking at any one given month is not a full trend, it can be used to predict any trend. But statistically I don't generally used sources like insideEV or cleantechnica.... inherently they want to tell people EVs are the best and getting better... that is just their message and hope... so anything that supports that data.

Cleantechnica uses LMC Automotive global sales data here: https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/1...2019-electric-vehicle-sales-continue-to-grow/

For all of 2019 - They show less data than i was using in my analysis as they are only using china, US, and europe.
 

turbobrick240

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I was referring specifically to European marketshare. I agree that monthly sales figures aren't ideal, but they do show the explosive growth of EV's in Europe in 2020. The Q1 figures will give a somewhat fuller picture. The impressive aspect to me is that the EV segment is still seeing growth while ICEV sales are getting absolutely devastated. I'm not sure if that's more related to how passionate EV buyers are, or if they are just in a better place financially- but it is interesting. The European city dwellers are also getting a nice reprieve from smog during this pandemic- that alone will probably sway many consumers toward EV's.

Here are recent global figures (not fake news, I promise! :D ) : https://thedriven-io.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/thedriven.io/2020/04/02/tesla-model-3-leads-global-electric-vehicle-sales-rise-amid-covid-19-slowdown/amp/?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15862635271581&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fthedriven.io%2F2020%2F04%2F02%2Ftesla-model-3-leads-global-electric-vehicle-sales-rise-amid-covid-19-slowdown%2F
 
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kjclow

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Having cleaner cities due to the country being on lock down, may look good to the population but many of those people haven't been getting pay checks for 3-6 months. A different car is not going to make the list of their priorities for many years.
 

turbobrick240

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I don't think many Europeans have been out of work for 3-6 months- certainly not in relation to Covid-19. It sure does feel like a long time though. We'll get through it.
 

tikal

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With or without COVID-19 I will be careful to compare/extrapolate what happens in Europe in terms of EV sales with respect to the US. In a similar way I would not extrapolate what happens with EV sale growth in Norway and say, aha, see the same is going to happen in Romania or Bulgaria.

So Toyota, among other manufacturers, is going to bring EVs to the US in a big way soon? Ok. What main factor or factors in the next five years is going to make their upcoming eCorolla, eCamry, etc. so attractive to the American buyer that their sale rates are going to be much, much better than the Nissan Leaf, the GM Bolt, the Kia Soul EV or any other non-luxury EV vehicle being sold currently in the US?
 

turbobrick240

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So Toyota, among other manufacturers, is going to bring EVs to the US in a big way soon? Yes- relatively soon. I expect the first cars produced by the Toyota/BYD partnership will be for the Chinese market.

Ok. What main factor or factors in the next five years is going to make their upcoming eCorolla, eCamry, etc. so attractive to the American buyer that their sale rates are going to be much, much better than the Nissan Leaf, the GM Bolt, the Kia Soul EV or any other non-luxury EV vehicle being sold currently in the US?
Range. The Bolt has decent range, but it isn't all that cheap, and it looks terrible. The average price of new autos sold in the US is a little over $35k. So just because a Model 3 looks and performs a million times better than the Bolt, I wouldn't classify the base model 3 as a luxury car.
 

kjclow

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With or without COVID-19 I will be careful to compare/extrapolate what happens in Europe in terms of EV sales with respect to the US. In a similar way I would not extrapolate what happens with EV sale growth in Norway and say, aha, see the same is going to happen in Romania or Bulgaria.

So Toyota, among other manufacturers, is going to bring EVs to the US in a big way soon? Ok. What main factor or factors in the next five years is going to make their upcoming eCorolla, eCamry, etc. so attractive to the American buyer that their sale rates are going to be much, much better than the Nissan Leaf, the GM Bolt, the Kia Soul EV or any other non-luxury EV vehicle being sold currently in the US?
Price, distance, charge rate, performance. I put performance at the end since the base cars you listed are not perforamcne cars by any stretch of the imagination, however, if the performance is worse with electric, then it won't sell versus an ICE. I'm saying IF, not that they are. Also if you're looking at a sticker of $30k for a Corolla ICE, an e-Corolla should not be any more than a 5% increase. Especially if it's more complicated for someone, apartment dweller, to charge it.
 

Nuje

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The average price of new autos sold in the US is a little over $35k. So just because a Model 3 looks and performs a million times better than the Bolt, I wouldn't classify the base model 3 as a luxury car.
As soon as you look at the interior (particularly seats) of a base model 3, you'll KNOW it's not a luxury car. :D
 

turbobrick240

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As soon as you look at the interior (particularly seats) of a base model 3, you'll KNOW it's not a luxury car. :D
It is fairly modern/minimalist for sure. I actually don't think I've seen the base model interior. Is it different than the higher trim interiors? A lot of auto interior preferences seem to be somewhat generational. My grandfather's idea of luxury was A. made in America, and B. included such interior accoutrements as crushed velvet, quilted bench seats, and opera windows. :)
 

bhtooefr

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The partial premium interior is, AFAIK, visually nearly indistinguishable from the premium interior. (The base interior was never actually released, so partial premium is the base.) IIRC almost all of the differences are what features are present (mostly speakers?)
 

Nuje

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I just know that unless you opt for one of the multi-thousand $$ upgrade packages, the seats are base-level Civic in terms of fit. I rented a Model S a few years ago - and couldn't wait to get back into my Mk4 seats (yeah, they were Recaros in my car, but still - a $90K car should come with decent seats).

When I had my name on the waiting list for a 3, I looked at how they were spec'd....and when I came to realize that it was going to be at least $60K (CDN) to get anything I was comfortable in....we found a A3 e-tron for half that price. :D
 

turbobrick240

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I hear the etron polishes up nicely. Sorry, couldn't resist. :D
 

turbobrick240

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I just came across this article? about the Hyundai Prophecy EV concept car. I think it's gorgeous, with some interesting features that I'm not crazy about. Like joysticks instead of a steering wheel and non-operable windows. The tartan interior and suicide doors I do like. It's funny to me that Hyundai is denying Porsche design influence when it's so obvious.

https://www.topgear.com/car-news/concept/six-things-you-need-know-about-hyundai-prophecy#6
 

kjclow

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Joysticks that allow the driver to operate up to 90% of the functions without having to take their hands off the joystick. All so they can put more screens on the dash to further distract the driver from watching the road.
 

kjclow

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Seems to me that other concept cars have tried to reinvent the wheel in the past and none of that has made it to the commercial application. I think it was one of the microbus configurations that used something similar to a fighter plane "wheel".
 

Lightflyer1

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Joysticks that allow the driver to operate up to 90% of the functions without having to take their hands off the joystick. All so they can put more screens on the dash to further distract the driver from watching the road.
Or trying to remove that chest impaling/lung crushing instrument from the dash.
 

tikal

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Range. The Bolt has decent range, but it isn't all that cheap, and it looks terrible. The average price of new autos sold in the US is a little over $35k. So just because a Model 3 looks and performs a million times better than the Bolt, I wouldn't classify the base model 3 as a luxury car.
Ok, so you would bet that by Summer 2023 Toyota will bring to the US a Corolla-sized EV that would look cool/beautiful, with a range of around 350 miles (minimum) and the average price will be no more than $35K?
 

turbobrick240

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Ok, so you would bet that by Summer 2023 Toyota will bring to the US a Corolla-sized EV that would look cool/beautiful, with a range of around 350 miles (minimum) and the average price will be no more than $35K?
Well... It's Toyota, so cool/beautiful is probably asking a bit much. But otherwise, yeah that sounds about right. If not Toyota then VW, or Hyundai, or some other legacy manufacturer.
 

tikal

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So to make it simpler you have these general choices in 2023 with the approximately similar range (I am being a little bit more generous with EV range):

1) Gasoline Corolla (or similar size) selling average $25,000
2) EV Corolla (or similar size) selling for approximately 40% more or $35,000

Thinking of pre-COVID-19 or ignoring it altogether right now, we are betting that this new 2023 Toyota (or whatever) EV with a premium of 40% in price is going to be a game-changer for this auto manufacturer since the range is almost the same as the gasoline counterpart?
 

Tin Man

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Uh, not the least possible at that price with the very clean emissions from modern ICE vehicles. Good grief, tire and asphalt small particulate emissions are currently orders of magnitude higher and no-one is working on changing that.
 

turbobrick240

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So to make it simpler you have these general choices in 2023 with the approximately similar range (I am being a little bit more generous with EV range):

1) Gasoline Corolla (or similar size) selling average $25,000
2) EV Corolla (or similar size) selling for approximately 40% more or $35,000

Thinking of pre-COVID-19 or ignoring it altogether right now, we are betting that this new 2023 Toyota (or whatever) EV with a premium of 40% in price is going to be a game-changer for this auto manufacturer since the range is almost the same as the gasoline counterpart?
Sounds like a moving target. Tesla has already demonstrated price parity in the premium segment. If they wanted to make low end economy cars, yes, I believe they could achieve price parity in that segment by 2023. For the legacy manufacturers it would be difficult. Probably by 2025.
 

Nuje

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I just don't see any maker producing a $20-$25K car with ~500km/300mi range, that is sized anywhere close to a current high-volume seller, before the late 2020s at the earliest.

Batteries still cost too much...and volumes on those sales won't justify taking slim profit margins. Given the long lead times in producing a car, we'd have seen something already if it was going to hit showrooms by 2023.

Even VW's .ID3 starts at ~€30K (~$33K USD), and the range on the lowest-priced models is closer to 300km/200mi.
 

turbobrick240

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I think we'll all be quite pleasantly surprised by just how much battery chemistries improve and production costs drop over the next couple of years. There are Nobel laureates and some of the brightest people on the planet working on it as we sp.... type.
 

Tin Man

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I think we'll all be quite pleasantly surprised by just how much battery chemistries improve and production costs drop over the next couple of years. There are Nobel laureates and some of the brightest people on the planet working on it as we sp.... type.
I suppose we should all hope so but I'm suspicious that Moore's law doesn't apply to batteries, especially when so much energy is being stored per cubic meter that volatility comes to worry. Perhaps aggressive cooling needs to be part of the cost/benefit equation. It may be a long time before it becomes cost effective. Even with its current drawbacks, hydrogen seems almost more doable.
 

Nuje

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I remember like 5yrs. ago when graphene as a potential battery technology was the "look out - within 5 years, you'll be able to power a phone for up to a week on its current size battery!" story.

...and five years later, we still get through a day, but that's about it. It's most likely going to be five years away for the next 20years.

Case in point (and a textbook example of Betteridge's Law): "Will A Graphene Battery Power Tomorrow's Tesla?"
 

turbobrick240

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I suppose we should all hope so but I'm suspicious that Moore's law doesn't apply to batteries, especially when so much energy is being stored per cubic meter that volatility comes to worry. Perhaps aggressive cooling needs to be part of the cost/benefit equation. It may be a long time before it becomes cost effective. Even with its current drawbacks, hydrogen seems almost more doable.
I agree, Moore's Law doesn't apply to batteries. It doesn't really apply to integrated circuits these days either. I don't think we'll ever see a ten fold increase in Li-ion battery energy density over today's best performers. I do think we'll see a precipitous drop in production costs though. EV tech has reached the "second half of the chessboard", imo.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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After reading a few posts on this thread I went to the Tesla site and, indeed, there are several Model 3s (rear drive, standard range) with autopilot for under $40K. That actually is pretty competitive if you think a Model 3 is in BMW 3-series or M-B C-class territory. But I don't think it is.

I drove a new Mazda 3 Sedan not too long ago and it drives a lot like the Model 3, except for the power delivery. And with discounts it runs about $23K. Right now you can leas a Mazda 3 Sedan for $205/month. Tesla lease is $399. And the Mazda has better build quality. Depends on what you want, I guess.
 

turbobrick240

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I really like the Mazda 3. If VW hadn't offered a tdi golf in 2011, I would have bought a Mazda 3 hatchback. But saying that they have better build quality than a Model 3 is like saying that a Fiero has better build quality than a Ferrari because a couple of the panel gaps are a micrometer more uniform. Yes, some/many of the very first Model 3's off the production line had issues, but that got resolved early on. I'm pretty sure the Model 3 outsold the Mazda 3 by a factor of 3:1 in the US in 2019.
 
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