Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Doubtful, the lack of maintenance combined with a silent powerful car that never needs to be filled up has to be hard to give up.

People wouldn't be giving anything up if they've never driven or owned one. And I've driven a few EVs, the experience hasn't made me crave one.

 

[Lightflyer1]

Americans have repeatedly demonstrated incredible short-sightedness when responding to changes in oil prices: buying efficient cars when prices rise, and jettisoning them for trucks and SUVs as soon as they fall. Wonder if any lasting drop in oil prices now will drive people towards ICE and away from EVs.

But this is when I always buy one for a lot less money. When gas goes sky high the prices of the big trucks fall like a rock. Dealers will give squat for trade in. I call it upgrade time! Sometimes they almost give them away to get out from under them.

 

[jackbombay]

People wouldn't be giving anything up if they've never driven or owned one. And I've driven a few EVs, the experience hasn't made me crave one.

Your post seemed to imply that they already owned an EV and they would sell it for an ICE, but I see it can be interpreted otherwise.

 

[kjclow]

This artificial volatility in the oil market will lead to higher prices at the pump. The Russians goal is to weaken US shale oil production. I think it will backfire on them and result in hastening our shift away from fossil fuels.

Unless things have changed recently, I thought the shale oil stuff was fairly dead already. I want to say that oil needs to be in the $80 a barrel range to make it worth extracting shale oil. Note that I am not talking about fracking to get more natural gas and crude out of regions that were not typically drilled.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Things have changed. The cost of shale harvesting continues to fall. Last I read break even for a lot of producers is around $40/barrel. But that's still less than yesterday's close, so turbobrick may be on to something.

 

[kjclow]

Thanks. I knew I was out of the loop. Just didn't realize how far.

 

[tikal]

My EV growth rate forecast (I could be wrong of course)

Regardless of the fluctuations of the price of crude oil I think, the majority of folks in this forum, will agree that the growth rate of North American EVs will be gradual in the short term (next five to ten years). By gradual I mean something like a smooth linear curve as opposed to exponential (or similar non-linear).

Having said that I believe the growth will be more geared towards EVs used in local/urban commuting in large metropolitan areas vs long distance road traveling (and rural traveling) for the next five years at least. That's the "low hanging fruit" in my view.

 

[Powder Hound]

Or it might stop at a certain market percentage, and only grow as a result of the market overall growth, or regulatory changes (tax, subsidy, other regulatory action) change the equations in people's situations.

Any talk or assumptions of "inevitability" of market takeover should be taken with large quantities of salt.

Cheers,

PH

 

[03GolfTDI]

Nice! You can find a nice wall charger on Amazon and have L2 charging at home. Some as simple as using a drier plug, others requiring an electrician to install.

So work charges you to use the plug or just the other local charging station? I work at a dealer and there are 3 chargers, none of which have a way to charge you for service.

Just have to find a good deal on a eGolf so I can join the club.

Jason

PS: side benefit of plugging in every night at home is you can pre-heat or pre-cool the car without killing your range

Thanks!

Unfortunately I live in a condo so best I can do is toss the charger over the patio (I'm on ground level and there is a parking spot right by my patio) and plug into the outdoor GFCI outlet. That is a worst case scenario situation because I don't want to start jacking around with my power bill and not really be able to track running costs.

The ones at work are ChargePoint stations - its in a parking deck for the office building so its mainly only EV drivers that work in the building that use it, if someone that did not have a company paid access badge for the garage they would be paying pretty hefty hourly parking on top of the charging cost. There are some free stations scattered around but they are mostly in places like behind gates at apartment garages as an amenity or in pay to park garages at places like shopping centers, public transit stations, etc. meant really only if that is your ultimate destination and you would be paying to park regardless.

The '15-16's (83 mile range) are down in the $12-14k range, the higher range '17+ (125 miles) are going quite a bit higher and its slim pickings because I think those are just coming off lease.

 

[tikal]

Thanks!

The '15-16's (83 mile range) are down in the $12-14k range, the higher range '17+ (125 miles) are going quite a bit higher and its slim pickings because I think those are just coming off lease.

So how would you about to check the health of the battery before you buy a car 'remotely'? such as this one (just an example only):

https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/...utoTempest&utm_medium=TRP&utm_campaign=stemp2

Are there paid services specialized for someone check the EV for you on another state so as to make the best decision to buy it unseen?

 

[nwdiver]

So how would you about to check the health of the battery before you buy a car 'remotely'? such as this one (just an example only):

https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/...utoTempest&utm_medium=TRP&utm_campaign=stemp2

Are there paid services specialized for someone check the EV for you on another state so as to make the best decision to buy it unseen?

Would the health of an engine be any different? I trust a used battery FAR more than a used engine. There's no periodic maintenance required with a battery and all modern EV batteries have significant safeties built in to reduce potential abuse.

I got a chuckle out of this. Funny because it's true.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

BMW announced its long range EV won't come to the US: https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/9/21171762/bmw-ix3-long-range-electric-suv-us-market-china-europe

And Mercedes has delayed US launch of their EV by a year.

 

[turbobrick240]

This is a tough market to break into with the dominance of Model 3 and soon Model Y. Tesla's millionth vehicle produced just rolled off the line:

https://arstechnica-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/arstechnica.com/cars/2020/03/tesla-makes-its-millionth-car-a-red-model-y/?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&amp=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15840359195813&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Farstechnica.com%2Fcars%2F2020%2F03%2Ftesla-makes-its-millionth-car-a-red-model-y%2F

 

[oilhammer]

Awe, that's cute. Ford sold almost as many F-trucks last year. In one year. LMAO.

 

[compu_85]

Ford has also been selling vehicles for more than 12 years

 

[kjclow]

BMW announced its long range EV won't come to the US: https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/9/21171762/bmw-ix3-long-range-electric-suv-us-market-china-europe

And Mercedes has delayed US launch of their EV by a year.

I have to wonder if part of the delay is lack of charging infrastructure. If I can't charge it, it just becomes a very expensive status symbol.

 

[nwdiver]

Awe, that's cute. Ford sold almost as many F-trucks last year. In one year. LMAO.

After a ~century of growth. Tesla was assembling <100 cars per month by hand <10 years ago. How did you think this worked? That a company goes from 100 cars/mo to 1M/yr in a week?

The market is priced for the future and TSLA could buy F ~5x over. Where do you think this is headed

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Talking with a colleague this morning we agreed that Elon Musk's greatest achievement is not in vehicle design, manufacturing, or technology, but in building a brand. Whatever you think of Tesla's products, the company's brand value is extraordinary. A lot of that has to more to do with Musk and his personality than anything he's accomplished. And I'm saying that with respect, not criticism.

Mercedes and BMW (and maybe VW, we'll see) have brand strength in areas other than EV. So selling EVs is an uphill battle for them. I also predict the Porsche Taycan will be a sales failure. Not because it's a bad EV (although it might be), but because people don't go to a Porsche dealer for an EV.

 

[oilhammer]

The market is priced for the future and TSLA could buy F ~5x over. Where do you think this is headed

In my lifetime? Ford will still be outselling your wonderful Teslas. And if at any point the tide of EVs switches over, Ford (or Toyota, or Volkswagen, or....) can and will quite easily tool up to build them.

Remember how the Betamax VCR worked out for Sony? Yeah, something like that. Sony is still around, but there are but a voice in a choir.

 

[nwdiver]

In my lifetime?

You don't expect to make it to 2030? Ford has a big problem Tesla doesn't called 'stealerships'; They're not very enthusiastic about selling cars that don't require the owners to comeback every ~18 months.

I give Tesla a ~80% chance that they're outselling Ford by 2025. ~99% they're outselling Ford by 2030.

ICE bans are going to be coming hard and fast. WA state is mulling a ban on new ICE beginning in 2030.

 

[oilhammer]

You don't expect to make it to 2030? Ford has a big problem Tesla doesn't called 'stealerships'; They're not very enthusiastic about selling cars that don't require the owners to comeback every ~18 months.

I give Tesla a ~80% chance that they're outselling Ford by 2025. ~99% they're outselling Ford by 2030.

ICE bans are going to be coming hard and fast. WA state is mulling a ban on new ICE beginning in 2030.

I took a screenshot of that hilarity, LMAO!

You do realize that it is far more likely (although it still won't happen), that Ford will be selling electric F150s by then.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

You don't expect to make it to 2030? Ford has a big problem Tesla doesn't called 'stealerships'; They're not very enthusiastic about selling cars that don't require the owners to comeback every ~18 months.

I give Tesla a ~80% chance that they're outselling Ford by 2025. ~99% they're outselling Ford by 2030.

ICE bans are going to be coming hard and fast. WA state is mulling a ban on new ICE beginning in 2030.

I should save this for the future.

I saw a Volvo ad last night with their hedging tag line "Every new Volvo car launched from 2019 onwards will have an electric motor." (New=not existing model/platform, "with electric" means hybrid). My first reaction was they're making a big mistake.

 

[Tin Man]

What is U.S. electricity generation by energy source?

U.S. utility-scale electricity generation by source, amount, and share of total in 2019
Energy source Billion kWh Share of total
Total - all sources 4,118
Fossil fuels (total) 2,580 62.7%
Natural Gas 1,582 38.4%
Coal 966 23.5%
Petroleum (total) 19 0.5%
Petroleum liquids 12 0.3%
Petroelum coke 7 0.2%
Other gases 14 0.3%
Nuclear 809 19.7%
Renewables (total) 720 17.5%
Hydropower 274 6.6%
Wind 300 7.3%
Biomass (total) 58 1.4%
Wood 40 1.0%
Landfill gas 10 0.2%
Municipal solid waste (biogenic) 6 0.1%
Other biomass waste 2 0.1%
Solar 72 1.8%
Photovoltaic 69 1.7%
Solar thermal 3 0.1%
Geothermal 16 0.4%
Pumped storage hydropower -5 -0.1%
Other sources 13 0.3%

 

[turbobrick240]

Talking with a colleague this morning we agreed that Elon Musk's greatest achievement is not in vehicle design, manufacturing, or technology, but in building a brand. Whatever you think of Tesla's products, the company's brand value is extraordinary. A lot of that has to more to do with Musk and his personality than anything he's accomplished. And I'm saying that with respect, not criticism.

I think Musk has great strengths in all of those areas. But his primary strength, as I see it, is his vision for how technology can improve the future- and his ability to execute on that technology and inspire others to see the potential that he does. He has a very unique combination of intelligence, drive, and vision.

 

[nwdiver]

What is U.S. electricity generation by energy source?

That's kinda the point.

Solar and wind are now ~$1/w..... what's the hold up ??????? I've been producing >2x as much as I use from solar for ~7 years and I was clawing at the walls to kick my pathetic addiction to fools fuel. WHAT. THE. . IS. EVERYONE. WAITING. FOR????? An invitation?

You are cordially invited to get all your energy from the giant fusion reactor in the sky. It's AWESOME.

There's no excuse. Maybe ~10 years ago there was and I do feel bad I didn't kick mine until ~7 years ago

This continued addiction is just pathetic.

 

[oilhammer]

We're just waiting for you to pay for it. Come on, step up.

In the meantime, I will blow up and print the screen shot of your Tesla Kool-Aid fueled post above, and put in on the wall next to my pictures of Al Gore, Elon Musk, and Greta Thunberg.

 

[nwdiver]

We're just waiting for you to pay for it. Come on, step up.
In the meantime, I will blow up and print the screen shot of your Tesla Kool-Aid fueled post above, and put in on the wall next to my pictures of Al Gore, Elon Musk, and Greta Thunberg.

I paid for my own PV System at least most of it Are you a communist?

Point is that in 2020 there are really zero reasons to not be getting all the energy you need from the sun. None. PV is cheap. EVs are cheap (used ones anyway). Only morons and monsters use fools fuel where alternatives exist. Which are you?


People like you do make me regret the sacrifice I made serving in the military for 8 years. Sacrifice wasted apparently.

Feel free to post that on your wall too....... making a vet regret serving for you......

 

[turbobrick240]

I wouldn't place any bets on Ford at the moment. The big 3 nearly went under in the last market crash. Ford is struggling mightily in this one. Both Ford and GM are leveraged to the hilt with long term debt. I'd hate to see either disappear, but it's hardly impossible.

 

[oilhammer]

I have a grand total of $6k in my daily driver, total, including purchasing it, fixing it, modifying it, and upgrading it, and in a couple months will have covered 200k miles with it. It has a total of 572k miles on it now (and is TWO DECADES OLD) I can afford the meager fuel costs it takes to operate it every day.

If you can show me an EV that can do that, and still be doing that after 200k miles, can go 700 miles on a tank, be fueled up in five minutes, and continue doing that (and again, for a grand total of $6k), I will dip into my savings and buy it tomorrow. It must also be comfortable for me, and cruise at 90+ without a problem. I also do some towing so it will need to do that too.

If you would like to grace my meager house with solar panels, I will gladly pay you (or anyone else) the ~$150-200/mo I have been paying my electric company. They must still be working the same after 22 years (that is how long I have been in my house... but in truth it was built in 1987, so please provide proof that your solar panels will still be working the same as the grid does... steady, reliable, etc.).

Go on, I'm waiting.

Oh, and just FYI, the sun powered the algae that formed the fossil fuels' source that makes the #2 diesel I am happy to use (a minimal amount of). So yeah, I guess I am driving solar.

I will still be driving it when Tesla takes over Ford's global sales, LOL....

 

[nwdiver]

I have a grand total of $6k in my daily driver, total, including purchasing it, fixing it, modifying it, and upgrading it, and in a couple months will have covered 200k miles with it. It has a total of 572k miles on it now (and is TWO DECADES OLD) I can afford the meager fuel costs it takes to operate it every day.

If you can show me an EV that can do that, and still be doing that after 200k miles, can go 700 miles on a tank, be fueled up in five minutes, and continue doing that (and again, for a grand total of $6k), I will dip into my savings and buy it tomorrow. It must also be comfortable for me, and cruise at 90+ without a problem. I also do some towing so it will need to do that too.

If you would like to grace my meager house with solar panels, I will gladly pay you (or anyone else) the ~$150-200/mo I have been paying my electric company. They must still be working the same after 22 years (that is how long I have been in my house... but in truth it was built in 1987, so please provide proof that your solar panels will still be working the same as the grid does... steady, reliable, etc.).

Go on, I'm waiting.

Oh, and just FYI, the sun powered the algae that formed the fossil fuels' source that makes the #2 diesel I am happy to use (a minimal amount of). So yeah, I guess I am driving solar.

I will still be driving it when Tesla takes over Ford's global sales, LOL....

I served you for 8 years. 3 years at sea.... away from my family. Why do you feel entitled to degrade my quality of life????


And you can EASILY.... EAAASILY get solar for ~$150/mo. No one did that for me. Roll up you sleeves and put in a small amount of work. This is America... you're not handed everything. I spent 3 years at sea I think you can do a week of research and spend a weekend racking panels.

$15k in solar DIY will EASILY save ~$200/mo. Refi your house at the new cut rates and that's <$70/mo. So you can save $130/mo with a little bit of work. Like I said... there's no excuses anymore. Just laziness