Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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nwdiver

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I understand Tinmans hesitation to accept the notion of getting something for nothing. That's almost a philosophy amongst the old farmers of my parents generation here in rural Maine.
Maybe he should think of using electricity at 2am when there's 15GW of wind and 10GW of demand as 'picking up trash' only in this case it's energy that can't be used.

Or.... the 'price' you're paying is using energy on THEIR terms and not when you want to use it... although it's not hard to set a charge timer in an EV.

His mind is REALLY gonna be blown when aggregation services really kick off. Get PAID to charge your car :D
 
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Nuje

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Here is an interesting take on the market penetration of the Tesla 3:
Top 10 Cars Given Up for a Tesla Model 3
Buyers trade up, paying an average $50,528 for the Model 3 (U.S. Only)
Electric or Hybrid Luxury Economy

Rank/Type/Model/Company/Average Selling Price*

1 Toyota Prius Toyota 27,080
2 BMW 3 Series BMW 46,477
3 Honda Accord Honda 25,428
4 Honda Civic Honda 21,448
5 Nissan Leaf Nissan 34,562
6 Chevrolet Volt GM 34,251
7 Toyota Camry Toyota 26,160
8 Tesla Model S Tesla 95,000
9 Mazda 3 Mazda 24,847
9 Audi A4 Volkswagen 42,530
No big surprises with the people whose previous car was similar in price (Bimmers, Audi), or some kind of earlier electric or hybrid.

The big shockers, though, are the Accord, Civic, Camry, Mazda owners - they're already in cars that are reasonably cheap to own and drive, but then stepping up to roughly DOUBLE their previous car value!
I definitely do not play in that realm.
 

nwdiver

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they're already in cars that are reasonably cheap to own and drive, but then stepping up to roughly DOUBLE their previous car value!
I definitely do not play in that realm.
I upgraded to a Model S from a 2003 Jetta TDI in 2013. I sold the TDI for $3k.
 

Tin Man

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Tesla's Stock Goes To Heaven - opinion at WSJ

Tesla's Stock Goes To Heaven
Interesting take:
American car buyers don’t want electric vehicles, they want a Tesla.
Even with so many models to choose from, EV sales were flat last year, and one car—Tesla’s Model 3—accounted for nearly 80% of those.
Americans have room in their garages for many kinds of vehicles. Electric cars are among them but so is the category that outsells them 2 to 1—diesels, and that was before premium-priced diesel versions of the Jeep Wrangler and Chevy Suburban hit the market this year.
Tesla has proved that the market for electric cars is real, but so are the limits of that market, succinctly defined as the number of customers willing to pay a premium to be inconvenienced (and recharging will be a daunting inconvenience for many potential buyers for the foreseeable future).
Basically its an op-ed piece on how Tesla's stock price is way higher than what its future success is so positively thought to happen. I'm not sure of some of the "facts" including diesel market - trucks only nowadays.
 

Tin Man

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No big surprises with the people whose previous car was similar in price (Bimmers, Audi), or some kind of earlier electric or hybrid.
The big shockers, though, are the Accord, Civic, Camry, Mazda owners - they're already in cars that are reasonably cheap to own and drive, but then stepping up to roughly DOUBLE their previous car value!
I definitely do not play in that realm.
Accords, Civics, and Camrys so far outnumber other cars that having them on the list probably is a result of pure statistical chance and lower percentage per owner. Interesting that Corollas are not on the list.
 
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Tin Man

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25 Best-Selling Cars, Trucks, and SUVs of 2019

Ford F-Series (896,526 units sold)
Chevrolet Silverado/GMC Sierra (807,923 units sold)
Ram Pickup (633,694 units sold)
Toyota RAV4 (448,071 units sold)
Honda CR-V (384,168 units sold)
Tesla (367,500 units sold)
Nissan Rogue and Rogue Sport (350,447 units sold)
Chevrolet Equinox (346,048 units sold)
Toyota Camry (336,978 units sold)
Honda Civic (325,650 units sold)
Toyota Corolla (304,850 units sold)
Honda Accord (267,567 units sold)
Toyota Tacoma (248,801 units sold)
Jeep Grand Cherokee (242,969 units sold)
Ford Escape (241,388 units sold)
Toyota Highlander (239,438 units sold)
Jeep Wrangler (228,032 units sold)
Nissan Altima (209,183 units sold)
Jeep Cherokee (91,397 units sold)
Nissan Sentra (184,618 units sold)
Subaru Outback (181,178 units sold)
Hyundai Elantra (175,094 units sold)
Subaru Forester (171,613 units sold)
Ford Explorer (168,309 units sold)
Ford Fusion (166,045 units sold)

Interestingly, the top 3 and the Jeeps are now featuring diesel options and the old Chevy Equinox had a diesel option.

Tesla sold 367,500 cars in 2019
 
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turbobrick240

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Accords, Civics, and Camrys so far outnumber other cars that having them on the list probably is a result of pure statistical chance and lower percentage per owner. Interesting that Corollas are not on the list.
The absence of Corollas probably tells you something about the demographic. The fact that so many folks are willing to pay nearly double what they previously had on a car is telling. Like folks lining up to pay double for an iPhone. The product must be better.
 
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oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
The absence of Corollas probably tells you something about the demographic. The fact that so many folks are willing to pay nearly double what they previously had on a car is telling. Like folks lining up to pay double for an iPhone. The product must be better.
My $160 LG phone has outlasted my wife's last THREE iPhones, and it will be running neck and neck with her FOURTH very soon. Sometimes more expensive means just that. More expensive. Not necessarily any better.

I fully suspect the nearly 1/4 million mile 16 year old 1.8t Passat I drove to work today will outlast any new 1.8t Passat you could buy today. And mine is a wagon and has AWD to boot! ;)
 

turbobrick240

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My $160 LG phone has outlasted my wife's last THREE iPhones, and it will be running neck and neck with her FOURTH very soon. Sometimes more expensive means just that. More expensive. Not necessarily any better.
I fully suspect the nearly 1/4 million mile 16 year old 1.8t Passat I drove to work today will outlast any new 1.8t Passat you could buy today. And mine is a wagon and has AWD to boot! ;)

That's fair. I've never actually owned any Apple product (just because I'm a cheap bastard), so I'm not speaking from experience there. My Samsung works just fine for me.
 

SilverGhost

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Funny, but in our family its the Android based phones that last maybe a few months before getting replaced, while the iPhones last 3-5 years. But then we are also comparing the basic Android phones vs something like a Galaxy.

Jason
 

Nuje

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25 Best-Selling Cars, Trucks, and SUVs of 2019 in USA (Tesla line added by Tin Man)

Ford F-Series (896,526 units sold)
Chevrolet Silverado/GMC Sierra (807,923 units sold)
Ram Pickup (633,694 units sold)
Toyota RAV4 (448,071 units sold)
Honda CR-V (384,168 units sold)
Tesla (367,500 units sold - WORLDWIDE)
Nissan Rogue and Rogue Sport (350,447 units sold)
Chevrolet Equinox (346,048 units sold)
Toyota Camry (336,978 units sold)
Honda Civic (325,650 units sold)
Toyota Corolla (304,850 units sold)
Honda Accord (267,567 units sold)
Toyota Tacoma (248,801 units sold)
Jeep Grand Cherokee (242,969 units sold)
Ford Escape (241,388 units sold)
Toyota Highlander (239,438 units sold)
Jeep Wrangler (228,032 units sold)
Nissan Altima (209,183 units sold)
Jeep Cherokee (91,397 units sold)
Nissan Sentra (184,618 units sold)
Subaru Outback (181,178 units sold)
Hyundai Elantra (175,094 units sold)
Subaru Forester (171,613 units sold)
Ford Explorer (168,309 units sold)
Ford Fusion (166,045 units sold)

Interestingly, the top 3 and the Jeeps are now featuring diesel options and the old Chevy Equinox had a diesel option.

Tesla sold 367,500 cars in 2019
Something about lies, damn lies, and statistics. :D

For sure a good proportion of Tesla's sales were in the US, but to compare oranges to oranges, the Corolla was the #1 car in the world last year at 1.236million (almost 1 million more than all Teslas), and F-Series was 1.027M.
(Top VW, btw, was the Tiguan at 741K at #6, and the Golf at 687K - almost double all Teslas - at #9).

 

nwdiver

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Yep.... only ~10-15 years away from 'peak ICE'.

The UK just moved up their ICE ban to 2035. So 2034 should be a stellar year for selling ICE. Norway will be first with a ban on new ICE vehicles starting in 2025.

The wild card will be cities banning ALL ICE vehicles from their interior. Interesting to see if that will have an effect on sales.

I suppose I should post today's update from the land of $TSLA.
Easy come, easy go...of roughly $40Billion worth of market cap.

Gravity check SAT. I thought $500 was bonkers. $960 was absurd. I'd been selling off all the way up (though maybe not as much as I should have). That's the frustrating part of investing... no matter what you do you're gonna have regrets.

Then when you try to time the market you have to be right twice. Pointless to sell at $960 if you don't buy back the shares you sold before the next run :( Usually just better to 'enjoy' the ride....
 
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turbobrick240

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Trying to time the market is too much work. I just like to hold and buy on the dips. $969 will probably look like a bargain in a couple of years, if not sooner.
 

tikal

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Over that time I have added ~2 gallons of fuel a couple times. The car keeps track of the last time it was filled up, the last time the engine ran, etc and will start the engine to keep things from going stale.

-J

Thanks for the reply. That was informative.
 

nwdiver

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Trying to time the market is too much work. I just like to hold and buy on the dips. $969 will probably look like a bargain in a couple of years, if not sooner.
Yeah.... I always kick myself a little on the drops but I just hold most of my TSLA. Hurts at $700 on the way up when you sold some at $500 about as much as $720 down from $960.

Time in the market is more important than timing the market. Ark Invest has a base case of ~$7k by 2024.

Be an investor not a gambler.
 

bhtooefr

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Why not both?

(That is, gamble, and take some of the winnings to invest. Which I may or may not have done.)
 

nwdiver

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Why not both?

(That is, gamble, and take some of the winnings to invest. Which I may or may not have done.)
Sure. But just make sure you're acknowledging the distinction. IMO ~80% should be index funds or long-term investments and <20% for 'gambling' and trading stocks. I sold off some TSLA as it rose and I was aware that this was more a 'gamble' than an 'investment'. The bulk of my TSLA is going to just sit.
 

nicklockard

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Yeah.... I always kick myself a little on the drops but I just hold most of my TSLA. Hurts at $700 on the way up when you sold some at $500 about as much as $720 down from $960.
Time in the market is more important than timing the market. Ark Invest has a base case of ~$7k by 2024.
Be an investor not a gambler.

I gambled $6400 on TSLA, circa 2010/2011 --bought one large tranche at $18.xx/share. Freaked out when it hit $88 thinking 'there's no more room!' and sold it all.

You think YOU'RE kicking yourself???? Ha!
 

nwdiver

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I gambled $6400 on TSLA, circa 2010/2011 --bought one large tranche at $18.xx/share. Freaked out when it hit $88 thinking 'there's no more room!' and sold it all.

You think YOU'RE kicking yourself???? Ha!
I bought at ~$30 and sold half at ~$90. Figured I'd made a profit and was playing with the houses money at that point (stupid :( ). I bought it back on a dip to ~$180 or so a few years later.

Even without the benefit of hindsight how could there be no more room? IIRC at $88 TSLA had a market cap <$10B. Toyota was >$100B. I agree with the bull thesis that TSLA will likely join AAPL and AMZN as $1T companies by 2030. It's at least far more likely than not.

That gives it >7x growth over the next 10 years. I'm definitely long TSLA for the long haul :)
 

kjclow

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they're already in cars that are reasonably cheap to own and drive, but then stepping up to roughly DOUBLE their previous car value!
I definitely do not play in that realm.
I did. I went from a stripped GMC canyon (5 spd, 4 cyl) to my fully loaded Ram 1500 Ecodiesel. More along the lines of trippling the sticker price on my initial truck.
 

Nuje

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I gambled $6400 on TSLA, circa 2010/2011 --bought one large tranche at $18.xx/share. Freaked out when it hit $88 thinking 'there's no more room!' and sold it all.
I try to remember the Warren Buffett adage that the goal with investing is to make money AND not lose money.

So, in your example, he'd say, great - cash out the $70/share profit (your "made" money) and ride the $6400 initial investment - even if it goes to $0, you've still not "lost" money because of your $70/share profit.

(And try not to lose sleep over the fact that the $6400 would be worth a little over $250K at today's $752/share price.:eek:)

Of course, I remember this...but do I do it...? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 

turbobrick240

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That's an interesting review of the I-Pace. I wasn't aware it lacked a rear window wiper- seems like an odd place to cut corners. Overall, I'd call it quite an admirable effort by Jaguar. The reviewers troubles with finding chargers illustrates one of the many areas where Tesla has a significant lead. Despite the fellows claim about the I-Pace lacking engagement and "soul", I could tell he would rather be chauffeured around in a Rolls. It would be great if any members here have bought an I-Pace and could share their experience and insight.
 

wxman

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That's an interesting review of the I-Pace. I wasn't aware it lacked a rear window wiper- seems like an odd place to cut corners. Overall, I'd call it quite an admirable effort by Jaguar. The reviewers troubles with finding chargers illustrates one of the many areas where Tesla has a significant lead. Despite the fellows claim about the I-Pace lacking engagement and "soul", I could tell he would rather be chauffeured around in a Rolls. It would be great if any members here have bought an I-Pace and could share their experience and insight.
I have a son who now owns an i-Pace. He took delivery in March 2019. His i-Pace looks almost identical to the one in the video, except for being a left-side drive of course.

He has ~40 mile commute (each way) and this EV works very well for him. There are several courtesy chargers where he is employed, and usually is able to charge his i-Pace there for free. He has a 220V Level 2 charger at his home.

His experience is similar to that in the video - rated range is difficult to achieve, especially in less-than-ideal conditions.

I've had the opportunity to drive his i-Pace on several occasions. Like the instant torque! The aggressive regen braking takes some time to adjust to.

Generally agree with the video - i-Pace works very well in local driving, not ideal for long-range driving.
 

Nuje

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Like the instant torque! The aggressive regen braking takes some time to adjust to.
I most frequently drive my wife's A3 e-tron, and after that, I have to remember that I need to use the brake pedal when I get back in my Mk7 TDI.

I love three-pedal driving and have grown to really enjoy one-pedal driving as well (but still hate two pedals).
 

Nuje

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...with the Model S is that while you do get that "ludicrous" launch, it's pretty much one-and-done. The battery and electric motor produce so much heat doing hard accelerations that they cannot be done repeatedly.

He mentioned how a Model S on a track was doing great for the first couple minutes, but then its final lap time was abysmal because the car had to go into "self-preservation" mode, which cut power by like 50%.

This was in stark contrast to the new Porsche Taycan, which was tested on 26 consecutive 0-200km/h (124mph) runs, and its drop-off from first to last was only 0.7sec.
Even I saw the above as being somewhat "yeah - but who's going to be doing that repeatedly?" :rolleyes:

Some of the testing data was put this into convenient graph form and turns out you don't need to be making 20+ 0-200km/h runs; even just launching up to 60mph (100km/h) repeatedly makes the Tesla Model S acceleration take a nosedive quite rapidly.


Plenty of surface streets in SoCal (and I assume other areas of the country) have 55mph speed limits, so this could actually be a real-world situation.

(And again, this is not an attack on Tesla, nor you, the enthusiastic Tesla owner; it's merely a "huh - I had no idea!")
 
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