Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

[El Dobro]

What's a PV system?

Photo Voltaic, solar panels.

 

[nicklockard]

What's a PV system?

Photovoltaic solar power system.

 

[CraziFuzzy]

One of the things about the Tessum graph that caught my attention was how much healthier it is to use natural gas to produce electricity for charging EV's as opposed to burning it directly in ICEV's.
There's definitely a synergy between EV's and clean, renewable power sources. People who buy EV's are far more likely to install PV systems at their homes, and vice versa.

This is a function of the better environmental controls capable on a large stack, vs. a small tailpipe. Pure ammonia fed SCR's can knock NOx down to near zero at a natural gas power plant, while a CNG ICE vehicle's dry CAT can only do so much.

 

[turbobrick240]

This is a function of the better environmental controls capable on a large stack, vs. a small tailpipe. Pure ammonia fed SCR's can knock NOx down to near zero at a natural gas power plant, while a CNG ICE vehicle's dry CAT can only do so much.

I'm sure that's part of it. I think the greater efficiency of gas turbines and electric motors is another reason.

 

[kjclow]

One of the things about the Tessum graph that caught my attention was how much healthier it is to use natural gas to produce electricity for charging EV's as opposed to burning it directly in ICEV's.
There's definitely a synergy between EV's and clean, renewable power sources. People who buy EV's are far more likely to install PV systems at their homes, and vice versa.

What would be interesting to see is the ratio of single family homes versus multifamily homes in EV ownership. With all the condos going up around Charlotte, I assume that all would be equipped with EV charging stations.

 

[GoFaster]

PV=photovoltaic (solar)

 

[ToxicDoc]

What's a PV system?

Photo-voltaic ie solar panels

 

[turbobrick240]

VW's I.D. R electric race car just obliterated the previous Pikes Peak hill climb record of 8:13, and did it in 7:57. The previous record was set in 2013 by a hopped up Peugeot 208. Looks like VW may finally be getting truly serious about electric cars.

 

[bhtooefr]

And by "hopped up", that Peugeot 208 was really a Peugeot 908 LMP1 car under the skin (but with a turbo gasoline V6 instead of the 908's turbo diesel V8, and with all-wheel drive).

 

[turbobrick240]

Good point. It was about as much a 208 as the Nascar Toyota's are Camry's. I'm amazed at how light the I.D. R is- it destroyed the Peugeot record with less than half the max power output. The instant torque and lack of altitude robbing power must have helped quite a bit.

 

[SilverGhost]

Beat the previous electric record by about a minute, massive in racing, in addition to a large gap ahead of previous out right record and current second place times.

Follow up stories talk about how the software from I.D. R will help build better road cars. That ought to be interesting.

Jason

 

[bhtooefr]

Another thing to consider is that the I.D. R had less of an advantage in the two higher sections of the course, than it did at the lower sections. (Every section was faster, though.)

The commentators at the time were remarking that in 2013, the course was new, whereas those upper sections are now rougher road with patches, and that was slowing down the VW.

 

[nicklockard]

I saw an article that said the I.D. R dominated largely because VW chose not to use any electronic, software controlled, or ANY active battery thermal management--relying instead on careful airflow management, which allowed the specialized (tuned chemistry) batteries to continue insanely high discharge rates for the entire race duration--and saved a lot of weight.

Here's the article

 

[piotrsko]

What is considered insanely high discharge rate? For my ranger conversion it it is about 1000 amps or 5C or 200 hp. In 10 minutes, at that rate, the pack coolant only increases a couple of degrees, but I have 200 lbs of cooling mass in the 400 lb Volt pack.

Say they are pulling 10C, within reason for my Rc flight packs. I can still remove the pack after a flight bare handed which means the temps are less than 120 degrees

So they are making 670hp. Probably 600 v. , 1/2 megawatt, 1000 amps more or less.

Cooling the motor and controller is a bigger problem imho.

 

[Owain@malonetuning]

100c seems to be the top end stuff at the moment. The Koenigsegg regera runs a 4.5kwhr battery from Rimac with three yasa p400s that'll draw 520kw peak and 300+ continuous. 75kg liquid cooled pack, 800v setup. The C2 runs a 120kw battery @ 1400kw or so in production trim.

Porsche recently bought 10% of Rimac, they've been working closely with VW and Jaguar for awhile but have NDAs with other OEMs too.

 

[bhtooefr]

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/how-volkswagens-electric-racer-conquered-pikes-peak has some discussion of the battery.

Looks like ~660 A123 AMP20M1HD-A cells.

In any case, at 43 kWh, 500 kW, you're looking at 11.6 C.

 

[Owain@malonetuning]

http://liionbms.com/pdf/a123/AMP20M1HD-A.pdf is from august 20 2011, odds are they're using something custom to the application and newer tech. There's a bunch of 20C+ cells out there now, SPIM08HP from Guoan MGL used in a bunch of hybrid buses, 38120HP headways etc.

Plenty of tech coming down the line that's not on the shelves yet https://youtu.be/MocHcoBm4bU?t=5m21s

 

[Owain@malonetuning]

Almost ready for WRC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oklPmmtSxmQ&ab_channel=DPCcars

scoop at the back of the battery looks like an air intake

https://i.gyazo.com/6af8e8059bb4fccc391ad8c37abc6e73.jpg

At least there's some noise

 

[nwdiver]

It also says "...The Harvard researchers found that the warming effect of wind turbines in the continental U.S. was actually larger than the effect of reduced emissions for the first century of its operation...."

Yeah... because it's instant and local... the ground beneath the turbine warms slightly because the air mixes. The effect goes away instantly too unlike the effect of using fossil fuels which lingers for centuries.

Everything has some effect but this is like caffeine vs meth. Sure... caffeine makes you a little jittery and addicted but...

I'm talking about the POTENTIAL of biofuel. Biofuels from wastes already pencil out cost-wise as I've highlighted, even without any tax incentives.

Yeah... but you're ignoring the other fundamentals. Like the fact Joule poured hundreds of MILLIONS into this then got sold for scrap. The entire sector was a bloodbath with nothing to show for it. The researchers were quoted as saying they weren't even close. If PV was still $10/w I would still be diligently working in the nuclear industry. It's now ~$0.60/w so I shifted into solar. Economics matters.

LCDs ranged from 26¢ per mile for conventional gasoline ICEVs to 38¢ per mile for long-range BEVs using electricity derived from solar energy….[/url]

The only remotely expensive part of a BEV is the battery and full parity is expected by ~2025. In regards to the study there were several glaring problems;

• It relied on EIA projections which are notoriously and hilarioulsly wrong. It's 2018 and we've already exceeded their renewable prediction for 2030... made in 2013...

• EVs will not use 'grid mix'; As I've mentioned previously a secondary benefit to having a battery in the driveway is the ability to use electricity when it's cleanest and cheapest.

• $1.40/mile for low volume? Really? How are they doing their math? I'm lower than that in my Tesla S...

Wind and solar keep getting better at a remarkable rate. ~10 years ago my first PV system consisted of 200w panels I purchased for $1.64/w and an 8kW inverter that cost ~$3500 and weighed 140#. The most recent system I'm working on will use 360w panels costing $0.62/w and an 8kW inverter that costs $1400 and weighs ~57#. The retail cost of this system is $48k and it will generate ~35MWh/yr. Over the 25 year warrantied life that's ~800MWh. The Tesla Model 3 averages ~3.5miles/kWh so that's 2.8M miles of fuel for $48k or $0.017/mile ($0.012 after subsidies).

Xcel is constructing a wind farm north of where I live. They plan to sell energy into the grid at ~$0.023/kWh which would equate to $0.006/mile...

But it gets even better than that... if the bulk of charging occurs at the convenience of the grid operators the overall cost of charging could easily be negative.

 

[wxman]

The effect goes away instantly too unlike the effect of using fossil fuels which lingers for centuries....

True, but that would mean taking down all wind generators, or at least stop further deployment of wind generators. The question is, what is better for climate in the transportation sector, renewable electricity or biofuels?

...Yeah... but you're ignoring the other fundamentals. Like the fact Joule poured hundreds of MILLIONS into this then got sold for scrap. The entire sector was a bloodbath with nothing to show for it. The researchers were quoted as saying they weren't even close. If PV was still $10/w I would still be diligently working in the nuclear industry. It's now ~$0.60/w so I shifted into solar. Economics matters....

That may be true, but it was algae biofuel which is still not cost-competitive. Biofuels produced from waste oils and fats, forest and agriculture wastes, and MSW are more cost-competitive with fossil fuel than algae-based biofuels. Using Joule as a indication of biofuel viability is like using Solyndra as an indication of solar PV viability.

...In regards to the study there were several glaring problems...

Actually, I agree but what source of data should studies use if not EIA projections? You should contact the lead author if you have questions/problems with that study. It should be noted that one of the co-authors was from EPRI.

...Wind and solar keep getting better at a remarkable rate. ~10 years ago my first PV system consisted of 200w panels I purchased for $1.64/w and an 8kW inverter that cost ~$3500 and weighed 140#. The most recent system I'm working on will use 360w panels costing $0.62/w and an 8kW inverter that costs $1400 and weighs ~57#. The retail cost of this system is $48k and it will generate ~35MWh/yr. Over the 25 year warrantied life that's ~800MWh. The Tesla Model 3 averages ~3.5miles/kWh so that's 2.8M miles of fuel for $48k or $0.017/mile ($0.012 after subsidies).

Xcel is constructing a wind farm north of where I live. They plan to sell energy into the grid at ~$0.023/kWh which would equate to $0.006/mile...

But it gets even better than that... if the bulk of charging occurs at the convenience of the grid operators the overall cost of charging could easily be negative.

Perhaps, but there are some signs further fall in battery prices may be coming to an end. …Prices for lithium used in the batteries that power anything from mobile phones to Teslas more than doubled to $21,000 a ton in the past two years…. and …Cobalt prices are surging as demand booms on lofty electric-vehicle production goals from automakers.… and ...while demand for nickel keeps increasing, half the world’s nickel supply is too low in quality to use for car batteries….
…Hyundai believes electric vehicle battery prices will level off by 2020 due to supply constraints of key ingredients, ending years of sharp declines that have helped stimulate activity in the booming sector…

What do you think will happen to EV sales as federal tax credits expire?

 

[eddieleephd]

The entire thought that an electric vehicle has no emissions is ridiculously false! Maybe it doesn't emit going down the road, however, the power is supplied from a coal powered plant and emitting 3 times the power needed to create the energy used.

Unless the energy source is renewable, it's dirty!

Sent from my Armor_2 using Tapatalk

 

[VeeDubTDI]

The entire thought that an electric vehicle has no emissions is ridiculously false! Maybe it doesn't emit going down the road, however, the power is supplied from a coal powered plant and emitting 3 times the power needed to create the energy used.

Unless the energy source is renewable, it's dirty!

Sent from my Armor_2 using Tapatalk

Incredible analysis. If the electricity isn’t clean, it’s dirty. Have you looked at the grid generation mix lately? It is getting cleaner and cleaner every year, with some countries producing the majority of their power from renewable sources.

 

[El Dobro]

The entire thought that an electric vehicle has no emissions is ridiculously false! Maybe it doesn't emit going down the road, however, the power is supplied from a coal powered plant and emitting 3 times the power needed to create the energy used.
Unless the energy source is renewable, it's dirty!
Sent from my Armor_2 using Tapatalk

https://content.sierraclub.org/evguide/myths-vs-reality

 

[nwdiver]

Using Joule as a indication of biofuel viability is like using Solyndra as an indication of solar PV viability.

Except it wasn't just Joule. Like I said... the entire sector collapsed with almost nothing to show for the investment. Solar PV is ~70% cheaper than it was 10 years ago and costs are STILL falling; Had biofuels achieved a fraction of the success that solar and wind have enjoyed I'd still be driving my TDI and filling it up with B100 for <$1/gal... Alas it was not meant to be Conversely... had PV failed to yield results in the same way biofuels have I'd be embarrassed to support it much like I'm embarrassed by the nuclear industry I was employed by until recently...

Just in the last 18 months the cost of building wind in NM has gone from ~$1.2/w to ~$1/w! Progress... wind and solar have it.

renewable electricity or biofuels?

That's precisely the question that needs to be answered... I've seen several studies that wind and solar are unquestionably a cleaner and more importantly CHEAPER source of energy vs biofuels. NONE that biofuels are a viable substitute for wind and solar.

The problem with wind and solar of course is intermittency. We need TWh of batteries ready to absorb surplus energy... might as well use the bulk of that storage for transportation.

The expiration of EV tax credits will be offset by the plummeting cost of batteries. The only resource constraint is cobalt and most manufacturers are significantly reducing or eliminating that from their batteries.

In not wind and solar to reduce fossil fuel use... what? If we use wind and solar... what's a more cost effective buffer than EVs? Ignoring the fact that wind and solar is <1/5th the cost per mile vs biofuel... what's a better way to avoid wind and solar curtailment? Why throw away perfectly good clean and cheap energy when you can put it in your car?

The cheapest energy is the energy you don't use... second to that is clean energy which would have otherwise been wasted from curtailed wind or solar; THAT... is where EVs truly shine. In March alone CAISO curtailed 80GWh of energy... that's the equivalent of 7M gallons of biofuel... cheap and clean energy... we just need a fleet of cars able to take advantage of it.

 

[eddieleephd]

Incredible analysis. If the electricity isn’t clean, it’s dirty. Have you looked at the grid generation mix lately? It is getting cleaner and cleaner every year, with some countries producing the majority of their power from renewable sources.

Except America where it's getting dirtier! I have a degree in the sustainable technologies and PV is crap so far as alternative energy goes. There is so much more available that is better and cleaner!

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[eddieleephd]

Except it wasn't just Joule. Like I said... the entire sector collapsed with almost nothing to show for the investment. Solar PV is ~70% cheaper than it was 10 years ago and costs are STILL falling; Had biofuels achieved a fraction of the success that solar and wind have enjoyed I'd still be driving my TDI and filling it up with B100 for <$1/gal... Alas it was not meant to be Conversely... had PV failed to yield results in the same way biofuels have I'd be embarrassed to support it much like I'm embarrassed by the nuclear industry I was employed by until recently...

Just in the last 18 months the cost of building wind in NM has gone from ~$1.2/w to ~$1/w! Progress... wind and solar have it.



That's precisely the question that needs to be answered... I've seen several studies that wind and solar are unquestionably a cleaner and more importantly CHEAPER source of energy vs biofuels. NONE that biofuels are a viable substitute for wind and solar.

The problem with wind and solar of course is intermittency. We need TWh of batteries ready to absorb surplus energy... might as well use the bulk of that storage for transportation.

The expiration of EV tax credits will be offset by the plummeting cost of batteries. The only resource constraint is cobalt and most manufacturers are significantly reducing or eliminating that from their batteries.

In not wind and solar to reduce fossil fuel use... what? If we use wind and solar... what's a more cost effective buffer than EVs? Ignoring the fact that wind and solar is <1/5th the cost per mile vs biofuel... what's a better way to avoid wind and solar curtailment? Why throw away perfectly good clean and cheap energy when you can put it in your car?

The cheapest energy is the energy you don't use... second to that is clean energy which would have otherwise been wasted from curtailed wind or solar; THAT... is where EVs truly shine. In March alone CAISO curtailed 80GWh of energy... that's the equivalent of 7M gallons of biofuel... cheap and clean energy... we just need a fleet of cars able to take advantage of it.

All that's fine and dandy if you compare everything to carbon emissions and ignore the carbon created when the panels were created along with the materials used and the fact that is produced by coal, or nuclear power in the first place.
I'll be impressed when we use renewable energy to create the generation units and the resources are recycled. Also tidal generation is consistent and better than most, Geo thermal is likely one of the best most consistent and has the highest need for development.

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[bhtooefr]

Audi would have you do direct air capture of CO2, and use that energy to split water, and then combine the CO2 with the resulting hydrogen through a GTL process to make syncrude, and then refine that syncrude into syndiesel, to use the excess energy.

 

[nwdiver]

All that's fine and dandy if you compare everything to carbon emissions and ignore the carbon created when the panels were created along with the materials used and the fact that is produced by coal, or nuclear power in the first place.

Not ignored at all...

Energy payback for solar is <4 years with a 25+ year life...

Energy payback for wind is ~5-8 months with a 20+ year life...

Energy is Energy... no reason energy from solar and wind can't make more solar and wind

Audi would have you do direct air capture of CO2, and use that energy to split water, and then combine the CO2 with the resulting hydrogen through a GTL process to make syncrude, and then refine that syncrude into syndiesel, to use the excess energy.

Someday... though I think CH4 is a better candidate than C12H24 and mostly for rocket fuel. Just no way around newtons 2nd law

 

[German_1er_diesel]

though I think CH4 is a better candidate than C12H24 and mostly for rocket fuel. Just no way around newtons 2nd law

That's why Audi has a solid lineup of CH4-powered cars. (A3, A4 sedan/avant, A5 Sportback)
https://www.audi.de/de/brand/de/neu...BerA6lyf25W-iaQWkp0aAmwvEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds

 

[dremd]

Well, my Leaf got hit by an intoxicated Harley rider who tried to lane split at 130 mph between me and an Altima that was passing me at (I was at 75~76 in a 70). Bike pinballed between the 2 cars and poked holes throughout in the drivers side of my car and took out a tire and wheel. Biker was ejected quickly and slid on the pavement behind the bike ending up on the left shoulder injured but alive, bike spun violently in circles while passing me.I have dash cam video of the front (no rear camera), but I'm not going to post until everything is settled.
Bike has valid insurance from a value company. I'm leaving tonight for 2 weeks, so I doubt it will be resolved quickly.