Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

[bhtooefr]

The big problem is that the auto industry has incredibly long lead time, so even a sincere attempt to turn a ship around looks for years like stalling for time.

The rule of thumb is that it takes 5 years from conception to release for a new car. Sometimes you can shorten that process (as Tesla's so desperately tried to do with the Model 3), sometimes it takes longer, but it's about 5 years.

Now, an automaker that wasn't internally turning the ship around on EVs by April 4, 2016 (the Monday after the Model 3 announcement)... their management is potentially criminally incompetent, because the Model 3 reservations showed that the demand is very, very real, despite decades of automakers saying that it's not.

But, realistically, everyone except Tesla and maybe the Renault-Nissan Alliance really was giving lip service to EVs, at least up to September 17, 2015. (I say Renault-Nissan rather than GM, because it's become painfully obvious that the Bolt is itself a compliance car, whereas Renault-Nissan is taking things seriously at least in some markets. The LEAF is poorly optimized for our market, but it's optimized for SOMETHING.)

Let's say that VW decided to pour all resources into EVs on September 18, 2015, the day that Dieselgate broke, and started in earnest on the MEB platform. That means five years from then, September 18, 2020, MEB cars will start to be released... and VW's said that 2020 is the release date for the ID and the ID Crozz, which matches up perfectly.

Ultimately, I think you'll see by 2022, who's serious and who isn't. Until 2020, everyone who isn't Tesla or Renault-Nissan will only have lip service to offer, because their real products are under development. (Renault-Nissan will be able to get the LEAF to be an actual serious EV next year, AFAIK.)

 

[TDIMeister]

You're right, David. GREET doesn't include the BTU value of the fuel itself apparently.

Edit: The efficiencies are given as a separate entity in the "Well-to-Pump" output file. The actual energy consumed in producing the fuel/electricity is provided and is over and above the mmBTU of the fuel itself, which needs to be considered in the actual efficiencies. The output file is labeled "Well-to-Pump Energy Consumption, Water Consumption and Emissions: Btu or Gallon or g per mmBtu of Fuel Available at Fuel Station Pumps" in GREET.

Does that make sense?

Yes, sir! I downloaded GREET 2017 also and am having some fun learning it.

 

[Chris]

The big problem is that the auto industry has incredibly long lead time, so even a sincere attempt to turn a ship around looks for years like stalling for time.

The rule of thumb is that it takes 5 years from conception to release for a new car. Sometimes you can shorten that process (as Tesla's so desperately tried to do with the Model 3), sometimes it takes longer, but it's about 5 years.

Now, an automaker that wasn't internally turning the ship around on EVs by April 4, 2016 (the Monday after the Model 3 announcement)... their management is potentially criminally incompetent, because the Model 3 reservations showed that the demand is very, very real, despite decades of automakers saying that it's not.

But, realistically, everyone except Tesla and maybe the Renault-Nissan Alliance really was giving lip service to EVs, at least up to September 17, 2015. (I say Renault-Nissan rather than GM, because it's become painfully obvious that the Bolt is itself a compliance car, whereas Renault-Nissan is taking things seriously at least in some markets. The LEAF is poorly optimized for our market, but it's optimized for SOMETHING.)

Let's say that VW decided to pour all resources into EVs on September 18, 2015, the day that Dieselgate broke, and started in earnest on the MEB platform. That means five years from then, September 18, 2020, MEB cars will start to be released... and VW's said that 2020 is the release date for the ID and the ID Crozz, which matches up perfectly.

Ultimately, I think you'll see by 2022, who's serious and who isn't. Until 2020, everyone who isn't Tesla or Renault-Nissan will only have lip service to offer, because their real products are under development. (Renault-Nissan will be able to get the LEAF to be an actual serious EV next year, AFAIK.)

I know there aren't many GM fans on here, but I think they deserve credit for sustaining the Chevrolet Volt development program through the great recession and their Chapter 11.

 

[gmcjetpilot]

I have a 2010 JSW TDI (since end of 2011) and 2015 Nissan LEAF (since end of 2017). I love the LEAF but it is not a panacea. I just had my 2010 TDI emission modification done. (looking forward to the restitution check). I have real experience.... I can tell you all I have learned living with the LEAF, again like it, but let me say this first. EV's are COMING AND CAN NOT BE STOPPED> Why? Well it's the law. State and Fed Gov (geniuses all to be sure) have made it mandatory, a quota of new car sales MUST be EV. In the next 5 years, World Wide there will be 150 NEW EV models (Japan/Korea/NA brands as well as Europe brands like Renault)... END OF STORY... The $7500 EV tax break has to end as well. That will make the point of entry hurt for most people.

My 3 yr old LEAF is solid and does commute duties like a champ, driving daily since October (Parked my VW TDI in garage with battery tender). I bought LEAF used for $12K. I have seen the prices bounce up on the LEAF... My TDI I also bought used, a VW CPO for $22,000 (mins the $6000 in diesel gate payments) was a pretty good deal. My car is worth $12K at best. However it is not for sale nor is the LEAF... I think it is a keeper.

Bad news, my electric bill up a little, but have been to fuel station '0' times. Will it save me money? Estimate based on my driving, current electric and fuel cost, against the TDI (which is a hard act to follow), I'll save about $600 a year (diesel cost $800 minus electrical cost $200). My utility has installed smart meters and going to a system where you can opt in for TOU program, or TIME OF USE programs. So if you are charging middle of night (car has timers to charge) you can save. Even though they have not started program I charge middle of night.

BAD NEWS the battery pack I have might last another 6-7 years with declining capacity. It will cost about $5500 to replace (but battery cost are dropping). So no savings in $$$$ in energy. HOWEVER the EV needs no maintenance..... NO oil changes, NO filters, NO transmission, NO pumps, no emission systems and CODES.... I suspect if I put a new battery in my LEAF I can sell it for almost what I paid. So cost of ownership may be less. Keep in mind I got a good deal on a clean 20K mile off lease LEAF with good battery capacity.

I do have FREE LEVEL II chargers within 2 miles of my house at a big park. They are only open from sunrise to sunset. Of course that means I need to sit around for 2 hours. However talk about saving money? I could save almost $5000 in 6 years (which pays for a new battery pak). I am thinking of how to tow my scooter behind my LEAF so I can scoot home while car charges.

Will I have less tail pipe emissions? Yes. However pollution to make a battery pack and recycle old is not free. My back ground in engineering. I learned from physics, conservation of mass, conservation of energy.... and THERE IS NO FREE LUNCH... The energy and pollution to make any car is a factor. That is why crushing good VW TDI's made no sense.

The EV has wonderful off line launch (with ECON off), and tons of torque, about as fast (or slightly faster) off the line as a stock TDI. Fun to drive with low CG. Nissan builds a SOLID car that feels tight and rattle free. Materials are descent to very good. Really no complaints in fit and finish. To conserve range you do have to manage how you drive. It is effected by jack rabbit starts, speeding and so on...

I am keeping the TDI because the practical range of the LEAF is 80 miles. Yes you can charge at your destination to make a 80 mile RT, but in most cases that is not practical. I have some trips I need to make that are 40 to 100 miles one way, this EV is not super practical for. The new 2018 LEAF has a bigger Bat Pak (about 130 practical miles) and to 2019 gets an even bigger Pak (180 miles practical is rumored). Bigger battery = more cost to buy. When I say practical it means AC, lights and getting home with 20% (or 20 miles left). After that warning lights start flashing.

A Tesla? Yes but a clean good used one is $47,000, and the company never made money (may go Chapt 11 someday), complicated , QC and fit issues, and what a new battery pack might cost is mind boggling. Keep in mind Tesla has a 60-90 KVA pack, where the the LEAF does what it does with 24 KVA. Tesla is a bigger car with more performance to be sure. Of course the Tesla also has 200-250 mile range, which adds a lot of utility. However charge times to 100% are longer for a bigger battery with a typical home LEVEL II charger. You don't have to full charge each time. Although TESLA superchargers are fast and free for some of the older TESLA's that got that with purchase, but they are no longer giving away free lifetime charging, which makes used TESLA's with the free charging a good deal in that respect. However if you are not near a SUPER CHARGER, you can't use it practically. Also fast charging my reduce battery life. ANY EV can go cross country as long as you stop and charge.

For my my LEAF, there is a big public park nearby my house, with 10 covered level II chargers. It is only 2 miles away, but it is still hard for me to go there and charge free. I have to go there plug in and then what? Yes the park is great. I suppose I could throw my bike in the back of the LEAF and peddle home? I have a 150cc scooter I'd like to tow behind the LEAF... ha ha. Serious that is going to happen. The savings would be $800 a year. Even if I only do half of my charging there that is $400 a year.

 

[kjclow]

With what frequency? I've had one day (in 2 years) that charging by generator almost happened, but the power came back on day 3, and I could have driven another vehicle anyways.

If grid power is that unreliable in your location then I'd consider some solar and batteries to save on liquid fuel.

In the 20+ years I've been in Charlotte, we have lost power for multiple days a few times. Usually ice storms followed by wet cloudy weather. We didn't live here when Hugo came through but I think that was about two weeks in the dark for most of Charlotte. Hasn't bothered me enough to get a generator, yet.

 

[kjclow]

My '97 Passat TDI ran at high idle in my sister's driveway for THREE DAYS one time when her power went out due to a massive storm.

I just used VCDS to crank the idle speed up to around 1400 RPMs, had an inverter hooked to the battery with the hood propped up. Never missed a beat, ran non stop the whole time. Left a little black soot print in their driveway under the tailpipes.

Funny story about electricity:

When I finally got to bring my son home from the hospital after 18 months, the gal that was helping us get transitioned into home care for him gave my wife a tip. When my wife asked how long the battery lasted in his feed pump (he had a G-J button) as well as his Broviak pump, since the power would frequently go out at our house, she was told to call the electric company and tell them to put us on a priority list. Never heard of such a thing, never knew it existed. But, my wife did call, and there is such a thing, and we had to get some letter from a doctor or whatever as "proof" of a medical condition in which electricity was a priority.

The very next week, no kidding, there were about 20 trucks from the electric company doing a bunch of work near our house at a substation, a bunch of new poles were put in within a mile of my house (not down my road in particular), and since then, our power has been out a total of once. And that was several years ago. Used to go out once or twice a month, and during stormy weather it was ALWAYS going in and out.

Do not know if it was coincidence, do not know if our call put stuff that was slated to be updated on a fast track and got bumped to the top of the list, but something changed.

Great step forward from your electric company.

I'll add a side story. In the 1930's my granddad worked for the CCC for one summer to set poles and run electricity to parts of central rural Iowa. His ultimate motive was to get power to their farm, but in doing so also helped his neighbors.

 

[VeeDubTDI]

I have a 2010 JSW TDI (since end of 2011) and 2015 Nissan LEAF (since end of 2017). I love the LEAF but it is not a panacea. I just had my 2010 TDI emission modification done. (looking forward to the restitution check). I have real experience.... I can tell you all I have learned living with the LEAF, again like it, but let me say this first. EV's are COMING AND CAN NOT BE STOPPED> Why? Well it's the law. State and Fed Gov (geniuses all to be sure) have made it mandatory, a quota of new car sales MUST be EV. In the next 5 years, World Wide there will be 150 NEW EV models (Japan/Korea/NA brands as well as Europe brands like Renault)... END OF STORY... The $7500 EV tax break has to end as well. That will make the point of entry hurt for most people.

My 3 yr old LEAF is solid and does commute duties like a champ, driving daily since October (Parked my VW TDI in garage with battery tender). I bought LEAF used for $12K. I have seen the prices bounce up on the LEAF... My TDI I also bought used, a VW CPO for $22,000 (mins the $6000 in diesel gate payments) was a pretty good deal. My car is worth $12K at best. However it is not for sale nor is the LEAF... I think it is a keeper.

Bad news, my electric bill up a little, but have been to fuel station '0' times. Will it save me money? Estimate based on my driving, current electric and fuel cost, against the TDI (which is a hard act to follow), I'll save about $600 a year (diesel cost $800 minus electrical cost $200). My utility has installed smart meters and going to a system where you can opt in for TOU program, or TIME OF USE programs. So if you are charging middle of night (car has timers to charge) you can save. Even though they have not started program I charge middle of night.

BAD NEWS the battery pack I have might last another 6-7 years with declining capacity. It will cost about $5500 to replace (but battery cost are dropping). So no savings in $$$$ in energy. HOWEVER the EV needs no maintenance..... NO oil changes, NO filters, NO transmission, NO pumps, no emission systems and CODES.... I suspect if I put a new battery in my LEAF I can sell it for almost what I paid. So cost of ownership may be less. Keep in mind I got a good deal on a clean 20K mile off lease LEAF with good battery capacity.

I do have FREE LEVEL II chargers within 2 miles of my house at a big park. They are only open from sunrise to sunset. Of course that means I need to sit around for 2 hours. However talk about saving money? I could save almost $5000 in 6 years (which pays for a new battery pak). I am thinking of how to tow my scooter behind my LEAF so I can scoot home while car charges.

Will I have less tail pipe emissions? Yes. However pollution to make a battery pack and recycle old is not free. My back ground in engineering. I learned from physics, conservation of mass, conservation of energy.... and THERE IS NO FREE LUNCH... The energy and pollution to make any car is a factor. That is why crushing good VW TDI's made no sense.

The EV has wonderful off line launch (with ECON off), and tons of torque, about as fast (or slightly faster) off the line as a stock TDI. Fun to drive with low CG. Nissan builds a SOLID car that feels tight and rattle free. Materials are descent to very good. Really no complaints in fit and finish. To conserve range you do have to manage how you drive. It is effected by jack rabbit starts, speeding and so on...

I am keeping the TDI because the practical range of the LEAF is 80 miles. Yes you can charge at your destination to make a 80 mile RT, but in most cases that is not practical. I have some trips I need to make that are 40 to 100 miles one way, this EV is not super practical for. The new 2018 LEAF has a bigger Bat Pak (about 130 practical miles) and to 2019 gets an even bigger Pak (180 miles practical is rumored). Bigger battery = more cost to buy. When I say practical it means AC, lights and getting home with 20% (or 20 miles left). After that warning lights start flashing.

A Tesla? Yes but a clean good used one is $47,000, and the company never made money (may go Chapt 11 someday), complicated , QC and fit issues, and what a new battery pack might cost is mind boggling. Keep in mind Tesla has a 60-90 KVA pack, where the the LEAF does what it does with 24 KVA. Tesla is a bigger car with more performance to be sure. Of course the Tesla also has 200-250 mile range, which adds a lot of utility. However charge times to 100% are longer for a bigger battery with a typical home LEVEL II charger. You don't have to full charge each time. Although TESLA superchargers are fast and free for some of the older TESLA's that got that with purchase, but they are no longer giving away free lifetime charging, which makes used TESLA's with the free charging a good deal in that respect. However if you are not near a SUPER CHARGER, you can't use it practically. Also fast charging my reduce battery life. ANY EV can go cross country as long as you stop and charge.

For my my LEAF, there is a big public park nearby my house, with 10 covered level II chargers. It is only 2 miles away, but it is still hard for me to go there and charge free. I have to go there plug in and then what? Yes the park is great. I suppose I could throw my bike in the back of the LEAF and peddle home? I have a 150cc scooter I'd like to tow behind the LEAF... ha ha. Serious that is going to happen. The savings would be $800 a year. Even if I only do half of my charging there that is $400 a year.

One correction: battery pack capacities are listed in kWh (kilowatt hours), not kVA.

Glad you’re liking the LEAF.

 

[CraziFuzzy]

Wxman will be able to give grid-averaged emissions in g/kWh from Argonne's GREET model and EPA's eGRID so that we can do a quantitative comparison rather than unsubstantiated anecdotes.

I'm looking at 2012 data but maybe more recent data is more available to fairly capture the rise in natural gas-fired plants and renewables in the mix.

Edit: Here - http://forums.tdiclub.com/showpost.php?p=5375529&postcount=94
Great post there by wxman!

I was not comparing it to the grid mix, I was comparing it to a modern natural gas plant (where most the growth in grid capacity has been over the last 20 years). That more accurately reflects the incremental impact of an EV sold today. Modern combined cycle natural gas power plants have NOx emissions in the 0.1g/kWh range, and SOx nearing 0.05g/kWh. One of the key cleanliness aspects of electric-anything, aside from simply using less btu of feedstock due to overall thermal efficiency of an electric drivetrain, is that emission controls are many times easier, cheaper, and more effective per unit energy when centralized at the power plant, than they are at the tailpipe of an ICE.

FWIW, USA Grid mix in 2016 NOx numbers were right around where that diesel genset sit. Considering the rate of retrofits and/or decommissioning of older plants, and all new generation being a mere fraction of that intensity, however, that is rapidly decreasing year over year.

 

[VeeDubTDI]

CleanTechnia has an interesting article about the methane emissions from natural gas fracking projects in Pennsylvania. The Environmental Defense Fund is reporting that methane emissions from fracking are about five times higher than reported.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/2...mpaign=Feed:+IM-cleantechnica+(CleanTechnica)

 

[CraziFuzzy]

CleanTechnia has an interesting article about the methane emissions from natural gas fracking projects in Pennsylvania. The Environmental Defense Fund is reporting that methane emissions from fracking are about five times higher than reported.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/2...mpaign=Feed:+IM-cleantechnica+(CleanTechnica)

It's not something that can't be mitigated, they way I'm understanding it, the methane leakage is at the well site, which is capturable - nothing is going to be as clean as the nuke plants we are letting shut down though.

 

[El Dobro]

BAD NEWS the battery pack I have might last another 6-7 years with declining capacity. It will cost about $5500 to replace (but battery cost are dropping). So no savings in $$$$ in energy. HOWEVER the EV needs no maintenance..... NO oil changes, NO filters, NO transmission, NO pumps, no emission systems and CODES.... I suspect if I put a new battery in my LEAF I can sell it for almost what I paid. So cost of ownership may be less.

Also, brakes last a lot longer and you don't need any additives.

 

[Blue_Hen_TDI]

I was met by these when I stopped by the Wawa in Lewes (DE) this morning:

 

[VeeDubTDI]

I was met by these when I stopped by the Wawa in Lewes (DE) this morning:

Tesla has big partnerships with Wawa, Sheetz and Meijer. Superchargers are springing up all over the place.

 

[El Dobro]

They just installed Superchargers at the Wawa that's about 1 1/2 miles from here.

 

[DPM]

I've seen, I think, three Teslas in the past couple of years here. More than a little surprised then to see a bank of six or eight Superchargers at the M1 services both directions at Dundalk. Versus the total of three? chargers for all the other brands...

 

[bhtooefr]

So the charging networks for non-Teslas are often token chargers being put in with minimal investment.

The Supercharger network is being deployed as a transportation network, which means they need to handle expected travel through the area, not just enough to say "yes, there's a charger here".

 

[VeeDubTDI]

I've seen, I think, three Teslas in the past couple of years here. More than a little surprised then to see a bank of six or eight Superchargers at the M1 services both directions at Dundalk. Versus the total of three? chargers for all the other brands...

In addition to enabling road trips for out-of-towners, it's a matter of "build it and they will come." People are often hesitant to adopt a new technology if there isn't infrastructure to support it.

 

[kjclow]

It makes the prospect of owning an EV easier to plan if the charging stations are already there.

 

[GoFaster]

^ This is the aspect of EV ownership that Tesla "got" ... and the mainstream manufacturers still havent grasped.

 

[El Dobro]

This is why I like carrying my genset with me.

 

[El Dobro]

Not too shabby.https://www.greencarreports.com/new...r-all-electric-sedan-by-2022-debuts-in-geneva

 

[VeeDubTDI]

Not too shabby.https://www.greencarreports.com/new...r-all-electric-sedan-by-2022-debuts-in-geneva

I wish they'd show something a little less concepty and a little more realistic.

 

[El Dobro]

I wish they'd show something a little less concepty and a little more realistic.

Be glad it doesn't look like the new Prius.

 

[aja8888]

Be glad it doesn't look like the new Prius.

Hey it's: ......."the most personal, most emotional, and most individual Volkswagen of all times, according to Volkswagen brand head Herbert Diess.


How could anything be better!

 

[tadawson]

Sheesh . . . frapping marketing droids. When did "practical" and "functional" become irrelevant?

 

[Blue_Hen_TDI]

Sheesh . . . frapping marketing droids. When did "practical" and "functional" become irrelevant?

Better to ask NHTSA, EPA, CARB, and a panel of soccer moms. They know better than we do.

 

[tadawson]

Seriously, some of these designs are getting as stupid as the "IT" from SouthPark . . .

 

[Owain@malonetuning]

Hamster killer V2 was unveiled at Geneva

https://www.roadandtrack.com/car-sh...67/rimac-c-two-1914-hp-full-specs-and-photos/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvjvYzzBh-k&t=99s

 

[aja8888]

Hamster killer V2 was unveiled at Geneva
https://www.roadandtrack.com/car-sh...67/rimac-c-two-1914-hp-full-specs-and-photos/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvjvYzzBh-k&t=99s

Wow!

 

[turbobrick240]

Hamster killer V2 was unveiled at Geneva
https://www.roadandtrack.com/car-sh...67/rimac-c-two-1914-hp-full-specs-and-photos/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvjvYzzBh-k&t=99s

Those specs are pretty damn impressive. Too bad it'll be bugatti veyron expensive, and probably even more rare. They need to get Clarkson behind the wheel this time- he's had a pretty full life already.