Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

aja8888 · Jan 30, 2018

VeeDubTDI said:
The best way is to sift through the pictures and look at the battery health meter. A 2012 - 2014 with all 12 capacity bars remaining probably means that it has a new traction battery. However, this is not a guarantee, as sneaky dealers can reset the battery health system with a scan tool and it can take 6 or more months for it to fully calibrate and show the current state of health (our roommate found this out the hard way).

I looked at a dozen or so ads on Craigslist for a 2011 - 2014 Leaf last night and not one ad had a picture of the battery health meter showing the status. Sneaky for sure.

Jaestar3000 · Jan 30, 2018

We're selling back our 2010 TDI JSW and I've really been pushing for a PHEV, (but the wife wants a Diesel Equinox, I'm not winning this one).
I noticed Mitsubishi running ads for their PHEV Outlander finally in the US. This really seems to be the best move from JSW to EV, plus you get AWD. Has anyone seen one of these in person yet?

Also there's the Kia Nero PHEV and well, a bunch of Hyundai / Kia Hybrid/ev/phev cars but they seem sort of a quality downgrade from the leaders right now, the Bolt and Leaf. Also, tiny EV range on that Nero, probably aimed at the Prius Prime. 15 miles hardly seems worth plugging in for.

tikal · Jan 30, 2018

If you look at the life cycle environmental impact using the Argonne National Labs GREET model then a SUV with a light duty diesel such as the GM Equinox is going to be superior to an equivalent gasoline PHEV using electricity from the U.S. Mix.

VeeDubTDI · Jan 30, 2018

aja8888 said:
I looked at a dozen or so ads on Craigslist for a 2011 - 2014 Leaf last night and not one ad had a picture of the battery health meter showing the status. Sneaky for sure.

Yeah, it’s a crap shoot most of the time. For anyone interested in a LEAF, buy LeafSpy and the appropriate OBD2 adapter for your smart phone before you test drive. You can view battery state of health and a bunch of other stats similar to viewing measuring blocks in VCDS.

dremd · Jan 30, 2018

As FYI: the developer of LeafSpy reccomeded LELink Bluetooth Low Energy BLE OBD-II OBD2 Car Diagnostic Tool For iPhone/iPod/iPad https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00QJRYMFC?ref=yo_pop_ma_swf to me and I do as well (I have 2 of them).

aja8888 · Jan 30, 2018

VeeDubTDI said:
Yeah, it’s a crap shoot most of the time. For anyone interested in a LEAF, buy LeafSpy and the appropriate OBD2 adapter for your smart phone before you test drive. You can view battery state of health and a bunch of other stats similar to viewing measuring blocks in VCDS.

You guys have me interested...

bizzle · Jan 30, 2018

My wife and I were set on a Niro but after participating on a couple Niro forums the owners say that the highway efficiency is lacking. It's much like any other EV or PHEV in that once you start going over 60 mph the mileage plummets, which is something we don't have to worry about with the TDI (it often seems like efficiency *increases* the faster one drives).

The deciding factor, though, was the difference between a Niro at around 30K compared to the 2015 GSW SEL I found for $15K. $15,000 buys a *lot* of diesel (and my payments are $250 instead of $550).

On top of all that, my wife and I live out in the desert where we get more sun that any other place on the planet (and one of the hottest region on Earth, too). We had solar on our condo and a full EV eGolf. Our electricity rates out here are about 1/2 to 1/3 that of the rest of coastal California at $.12/kwh. We just moved into our forever home and I doubt we are going to do solar again and I don't plan on an EV until 2020+. Having tried the experiment it hasn't really generated much savings...or at least difficult to justify laying out over $50K at this point in the technology curve (our 6K system was $17K and a $35K car is how I got to $50K "investment" in electric technology).

VeeDubTDI · Jan 30, 2018

Solar today is under $2/watt and there are several used EV options for under $15,000. By 2020, you should have a plethora of EV options, both new and used, as well as even less expensive solar.

Enjoy your forever home!

VeeDubTDI · Jan 30, 2018

aja8888 said:
You guys have me interested...

Which part? LEAF Spy, the LEAF itself, the hunt for a new vehicle?

aja8888 · Jan 30, 2018

VeeDubTDI said:
Which part? LEAF Spy, the LEAF itself, the hunt for a new vehicle?

Well, I am getting more interested in the EV technology and after reading these threads and some publications, find myself wanting to go try a Leaf and maybe a Volt. Both look like good buys for a low mile one that is a few years old.

bizzle · Jan 30, 2018

VeeDubTDI said:
Solar today is under $2/watt and there are several used EV options for under $15,000. By 2020, you should have a plethora of EV options, both new and used, as well as even less expensive solar.

Enjoy your forever home!

My system cost 3.61/watt and it varies according to area. After the tax incentives it dropped to nearly $2.50/watt and this was two years ago so pricing hasn't changed much or if anything it's more likely to have gone up. There exists a range of things one could invest the same $20K that I spent on my system into something else that would generate much better returns in the same timeframe, but that's not really the point. The point is that EV options and alternative energy sources will be much more plentiful in another decade.

Looking at the raw cost per watt misses a number of important factors (how the interconnect plans are handled by your local utility, weather patterns, cost to R&R when it's time to reroof, etc.) but for my wife and I it's not a question of viability so much as having already tried a solar powered home with an all electric vehicle, we aren't likely to do it again on this home.

Oilerlord · Jan 31, 2018

bizzle said:
Looking at the raw cost per watt misses a number of important factors (how the interconnect plans are handled by your local utility, weather patterns, cost to R&R when it's time to reroof, etc.) but for my wife and I it's not a question of viability so much as having already tried a solar powered home with an all electric vehicle, we aren't likely to do it again on this home.

^^This. Cost per watt is only the beginning of the conversation.

I'm in the same boat, and not sure that we'd do it again either. Our solar *might* pay for itself given another 15 year or so, but given that my price per kWh has dropped from $0.08 down to about $0.03 - getting our full ROI back is a coin flip. Even though I managed to find a way to install 9.2 kW for CDN$19,000...financially, it would have been a much better move putting that money into the market back in 2015. Hindsight is 20/20. With that said, solar isn't only about saving money.

turbobrick240 · Jan 31, 2018

I think you'd be crazy not to seriously consider PV on a "forever home" in sunny Southern California. Being moderately handy can really cut down on installation costs.

dremd · Jan 31, 2018

aja8888 said:
You guys have me interested...

I got my Leaf pretty much because I was interested. I ended up liking and using it about 3x as much as I expected.

reince · Jan 31, 2018

dremd said:
I got my Leaf pretty much because I was interested. I ended up liking and using it about 3x as much as I expected.

Great to hear Leaf exceeded your expectations

compu_85 · Feb 1, 2018

dremd said:
I ended up liking and using it about 3x as much as I expected.

We've already put 10,000 miles on our Fiat (since April)... It's always amazing to me how quick the tech is maturing.

-J

Jaestar3000 · Feb 1, 2018

tikal said:
If you look at the life cycle environmental impact using the Argonne National Labs GREET model then a SUV with a light duty diesel such as the GM Equinox is going to be superior to an equivalent gasoline PHEV using electricity from the U.S. Mix.

True and that's how I stomach buying another oil burner until EVs are really viable for every type of vehicle and driving duty.

But for PHEVs just taking the numbers on the mpg sticker (and lab estimates) don't apply to the real world at all. My daily miles are usually under 35 so my Volt has a running lifetime MPG of 170 and from June - Nov 2016 I didn't put gas in it and drove nearly 4000 miles. That distorts emissions estimates into EV territory and in NC, we only have 25% coal gen power, the rest is a mix of NGAS, Nuclear and renewables. Of course if I plug in during the day I am pulling more from utility solar too.

So the wife drives 30 - 40 miles round trip daily, she could get a PHEV Outlander with it's 25 mile range and get 90 MPG daily but taking a 200 mile trip is going to drop it down to 30 MPG or something. It's a wash between this AWD SUV and the Equinox AWD SUV for that kind of use. They're the same price, have the same gadgets but there's no Mitsubishi dealer in town so that favors the Equinox.

Jaestar3000 · Feb 1, 2018

Also looking forward to the new 48V partial hybrid systems going on everything not fully electric. Chrysler / Fiat has a couple out this year. When I step on the brakes in a normal car with no regen I'm thinking I'M WASTING SO MUCH ENERGY THAT'S JUST TURNING INTO HEAT. These systems should have been put on diesels in particular years ago. It's been a gripe of mine that the Prius had all that technology and poor performance just to match the MPG of a TDI, just in an attempt to make gasoline efficient - really lame.

oilhammer · Feb 1, 2018

Yeah, THAT is what makes the Prius lame.

Oilerlord · Feb 1, 2018

Jaestar3000 said:
These systems should have been put on diesels in particular years ago. It's been a gripe of mine that the Prius had all that technology and poor performance just to match the MPG of a TDI, just in an attempt to make gasoline efficient - really lame.

Stay tuned.

Years ago, there was no business case for manufacturers to install expensive battery / regenerative braking systems to make cars more efficient. MPG (especially with diesels) was "good enough". Putting advanced tech like that into a TDI would have put too large a price premium on the car compared with their gasoline counterparts.

That's changed. As CAFE regulations continue to force manufacturers to push for higher MPG, we're going to see more plug-in hybrids and regen technology come standard on mainstream gasoline & diesel cars.

Oilerlord · Feb 1, 2018

turbobrick240 said:
I think you'd be crazy not to seriously consider PV on a "forever home" in sunny Southern California. Being moderately handy can really cut down on installation costs.

Read his post again.

When you're retired, making a big investment in solar may not be the one of the smartest financial moves you can make. Personally, I'd rather use that money to enjoy the rest of my years instead of putting it on the roof. I totally get where he's coming from.

turbobrick240 · Feb 1, 2018

Oilerlord said:
Read his post again.

When you're retired, making a big investment in solar may not be the one of the smartest financial moves you can make. Personally, I'd rather use that money to enjoy the rest of my years instead of putting it on the roof. I totally get where he's coming from.

I get that. I wasn't under the impression that he is retired or even approaching retirement in the very near future. He's also living in a geographic region that gets superb solar exposure. Seems like a no brainer to me- but we all have different priorities.

Oilerlord · Feb 1, 2018

Guess I should have read his post again...around our parts, "forever home" loosely translates into empty nesters downsizing into retirement. He did solar once, and figured the savings / payback didn't justify doing it again. Perhaps I read too much into it.

Jaestar3000 · Feb 1, 2018

Oilerlord said:
Stay tuned.

Years ago, there was no business case for manufacturers to install expensive battery / regenerative braking systems to make cars more efficient. MPG (especially with diesels) was "good enough". Putting advanced tech like that into a TDI would have put too large a price premium on the car compared with their gasoline counterparts.

That's changed. As CAFE regulations continue to force manufacturers to push for higher MPG, we're going to see more plug-in hybrids and regen technology come standard on mainstream gasoline & diesel cars.

I'd like to think that, maybe at least on trucks in the US. With the exception of the Chevy Cruise, they'll be no more diesel in cars, just SUVs but honestly since that's mostly what Americans buy now, it's where it could have the most impact - you might be right. I would bet that battery tech will get better and cheaper before that happens though, that's were all the R&D money is going. I've always thought it was odd they didn't mix the two. Demographically diesel and hybrid owners do their homework, it wouldn't have been a stretch to sell us a hybrid diesel, just more icing on the cake.

DPM · Feb 1, 2018

Diesel hybrid sounds great, and I'd love one myself; but it just doesn't work out.
PSA dabbled in it a couple of years back. But it's a financial non-starter; all the expensive emissions kit a modern diesel needs PLUS all the expensive hybrid stuff.

There is a fair bit of light-hybrid tech tho- stop-start systems recharging ultracapacitors under braking, ecu controlled alternators that are commanded to put a high charge into the battery under braking etc.

Methinks tho if diesels aren't killed off this side of the Pond, then the move to gasoline engines that have particle filters might just give diesel-hybrid a second life...

German_1er_diesel · Feb 2, 2018

Jaestar3000 said:
I've always thought it was odd they didn't mix the two.

bhtooefr · Feb 2, 2018

DPM said:
Methinks tho if diesels aren't killed off this side of the Pond, then the move to gasoline engines that have particle filters might just give diesel-hybrid a second life...

However, particulate filters aren't necessarily required to bring gasoline engines into compliance. Turbocharged DI engines can be particularly bad, especially in boost enrichment, but there's plenty of examples of engines that are fine.

Let's use the 2015 2.0 DSG TDIs (they're all certified together, using a Jetta as the representative model) as our baseline.

2015 Volkswagen Jetta TDI, DSG: .0020 g/mi on "CVS 75 and later (w/o can. load)" test cycle

For comparison, there's four production gasoline engines at or above 40% thermal efficiency - the Toyota ESTEC 2ZR-FXE as used in the 2016+ Prius and Prius Prime, the Hyundai Kappa III 1.6 GDI Atkinson as used in the Ioniq and Kia Niro, the Toyota A25A-FKS as used in the 2018+ Camry, and the Toyota A25A-FXS as used in the 2018+ Camry Hybrid. There's no PM results for the Ioniq or Niro, so they'll be left out.

So...

2018 Toyota Prius, Li-ion battery: .0003 g/mi on "California fuel 3-day exhaust" test cycle, .0013 g/mi on US06 test cycle
2018 Toyota Prius, NiMH battery: .0002 g/mi on "California fuel 3-day exhaust" and US06 test cycles
2018 Toyota Camry Hybrid LE: .0001 g/mi on "Federal fuel 2-day exhaust (w/can load)" test cycle, .0002 g/mi on US06 test cycle
2018 Toyota Camry Hybrid XLE/SE: .0001 g/mi on "Federal fuel 2-day exhaust (w/can load)" test cycle, .0007 g/mi on US06 test cycle
2018 Toyota Camry XLE/XSE: .0001 g/mi on "Federal fuel 3-day exhaust" test cycle, .0015 g/mi on US06 test cycle

Note that all of these are unfiltered gasoline engines, and the Camrys are even direct injection, and they're beating the (filtered) TDI. The last one isn't even a hybrid. The solution is more displacement and Atkinsonization through variable valve timing, really.

Of course, this isn't considering PN, just PM, so microfines could be a problem especially on the Camrys.

Edit: Let's add ADAC EcoTest results, for the European market. The Camry isn't sold there, and the A25A hasn't appeared in anything destined for Europe yet (best bet will be the RAV4 I'd guess), but there are ADAC EcoTest results for the Ioniq.

Toyota Prius Executive: PM: 0.2 mg/km, PN: 2.22183 10¹¹/km
Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid Premium: PM: 0.0 mg/km, PN: 29.3351 10¹¹/km (read: holy crap the microfines)
Skoda Octavia Combi RS TDI DSG: PM: 1.5 mg/km, PN: 0.00473 10¹¹/km (this is the closest I could get to the US cars within VAG for the September 2016+ version of the EcoTest)

So, basically, the TDIs are able to control the microfines better, but the gassers have lower mass.

German_1er_diesel · Feb 2, 2018

bhtooefr said:
So, basically, the TDIs are able to control the microfines better, but the gassers have lower mass.

Lower mass, but 100-1000x the particle count, and more respirable microfines.
Most new gassers coming out in EU have particle filters.

kjclow · Feb 2, 2018

Oilerlord said:
Read his post again.

When you're retired, making a big investment in solar may not be the one of the smartest financial moves you can make. Personally, I'd rather use that money to enjoy the rest of my years instead of putting it on the roof. I totally get where he's coming from.

As I approach retirement, I'm looking more at paying the house off, not adding to the mortgage. I don't want to have to plan my retirement fund payout around a mortgage payment.

bhtooefr · Feb 2, 2018

German_1er_diesel said:
Lower mass, but 100-1000x the particle count, and more respirable microfines.
Most new gassers coming out in EU have particle filters.

Well, most new gassers coming out in EU are also undersized DI turbo engines, no?

Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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