Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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SageBrush

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My Volt takes me on a 36 mile roundtrip to work every day. 9 1/2 months of the year there's no gasoline involved in that drive (which includes ~10 miles of 70 mph freeway).
I think the cold start issue is very significant.
Are you charging up with clean energy ? If not, then power plant emissions are 170x dirtier than a Prius using a national grid average.

However, let's take the good case of clean electricity. From a SAE paper, the Gen1 Plug-in Prius is run on the UDDS cycle of 2.4 miles 5 times in succession and emits these pollutants:



So over the 20 mile commute, somewhere in the range of 20 mg Nox is emitted if the engine fires up, for a whopping total of 1 mg/mile. Compare that to a current VW diesel that emits the same 20 mg in about 200 feet. After it is warmed up.

Or let's say your home consumes 2 kWh a month more of electricity than mine and we are both using 'average' grid electricity. We come out even in NOx emissions if your Volt NEVER fires up the engine and I drive 1100 miles a month in a Prius Plug-in.

YMMV, but I have bigger fish to fry than a car that emits 1 mg/mile NOx. As does the EPA, since they allow 70X for the passenger fleet.

Arguing over which super low NOx car is the cleanest is so besides the point when the grid is the elephant in the room. How about if we force every Prius owner to buy grid PV to offset the extra Nox emissions they could have averted by buying a Volt (and again, IF only clean energy runs the car and the Volt engine never turns on...) ?

$2 a watt
25 year operation
1.8 kWh/watt*year generation

Say the PHEV is good for 150k miles, then the Prius owes 150 grams of Nox
a watt installed generates ~ 45 kWh and each kWh displaces ~ 0.5 gram Nox
That is 6.6 watts owed please. Thirteen dollars. Since the Prius plug-in owner saved some $5000 between the cost of the cars and the subsidy, someone can afford thirteen dollars.
 
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gcodori

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For those who say they are going to go 500k miles with little to no maintenence on an electric vehicle needs to be shown the exit door. It's still a car just with a different motor.

They still have bearings, cooling systems, brakes, pumps (a/c, power steering, cooling, etc), differentials, etc. Sensors, traction control...

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nwdiver

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For those who say they are going to go 500k miles with little to no maintenence on an electric vehicle needs to be shown the exit door. It's still a car just with a different motor.

They still have bearings, cooling systems, brakes, pumps (a/c, power steering, cooling, etc), differentials, etc. Sensors, traction control...

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Myth 10; EVs need a lot of maintenance...

- AC synchronous motors can run continuously for years with no maintenance. We've got hundreds where I work that have been running >50k hours with no problems and no maintenance. That's easily over 1M miles.

- HVAC units can also run continuously for years with no maintenance. The AC unit in a typical home runs far more than the one in your car. Sure, things break... but that's not the norm.

- Every electric car has regenerative braking; using the motor as a generator to slow the car down. It's like driving a manual on steroids... I use my mechanical brakes >90% less than I did with my Jetta; I can slow to ~3mph just as fast as I normally would for a stop sign using only the motor; the brakes on an EV will likely last the life of the car.

- If you drive <10k miles per year then yes, you would will likely reach the calendar life of many components in your car before the 500k mile mark. I've already driven 75k miles and the most significant maintenance item has been tire rotations.

As a case-in-point... we've got an EV that's been driving on mars for the last 11 years that hasn't had any maintenance... unless NASA is keeping secrets about life there ;)
 
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VeeDubTDI

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For those who say they are going to go 500k miles with little to no maintenence on an electric vehicle needs to be shown the exit door. It's still a car just with a different motor.

They still have bearings, cooling systems, brakes, pumps (a/c, power steering, cooling, etc), differentials, etc. Sensors, traction control...

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While they won't be completely maintenance-free, maintenance costs will be significantly reduced compared to a traditional ICE car.

You will, of course, still have the routine items like tires, wipers, lights, infant mortality issues with parts, the random rogue failure, suspension components, brakes eventually maybe, etc.
 

TDI2000Zim

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If they can't tune the EA288 to meet emissions and get performance, maybe diesel isn't the way forward.

I read a pretty good article here. I would be concerned about your 09 and maybe consider a buy back or just not get it retrofitted if you have that option.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/09/20150921-vw2l.html

I have no respect for a website that peddles electric cars.

As long as we rely on electricity mostly produced by coal/methane/bunker oil/nuclear power, I think it is dishonest to paint diesel engines as dirty technologies; and particularly in view that a car which can only drive 200 miles per charge, or 200 miles per 8 hours, is not truly an AUTOMOBILE.

As it is, short of a Diesel-Electric engine, there is no other automobile more thermally efficient, as a diesel automobile.
 

gcodori

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Myth 10; EVs need a lot of maintenance...

- AC synchronous motors can run continuously for years with no maintenance. We've got hundreds where I work that have been running >50k hours with no problems and no maintenance. That's easily over 1M miles.

- HVAC units can also run continuously for years with no maintenance. The AC unit in a typical home runs far more than the one in your car. Sure, things break... but that's not the norm.

- Every electric car has regenerative braking; using the motor as a generator to slow the car down. It's like driving a manual on steroids... I use my mechanical brakes >90% less than I did with my Jetta; I can slow to ~3mph just as fast as I normally would for a stop sign using only the motor; the brakes on an EV will likely last the life of the car.

- If you drive <10k miles per year then yes, you would will likely reach the calendar life of many components in your car before the 500k mile mark. I've already driven 75k miles and the most significant maintenance item has been tire rotations.

As a case-in-point... we've got an EV that's been driving on mars for the last 11 years that hasn't had any maintenance... unless NASA is keeping secrets about life there ;)
My argument is not that EV take MORE maintenance, but a similar amount. We just need to dispel the myth that trading gas for a battery suddenly renders all maintenance obsolete.

Besides...The Mars rover cost $2.5 Billion. It BETTER last 11 years.
 

nwdiver

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My argument is not that EV take MORE maintenance, but a similar amount. We just need to dispel the myth that trading gas for a battery suddenly renders all maintenance obsolete.
Besides...The Mars rover cost $2.5 Billion. It BETTER last 11 years.
Well... it was $400M... not $2.5B... which is coincidentally about the ratio of EV-ICE maintenance ;) Well... probably a bit closer to 1:10... no doubt the rover was engineered and QA'd a bit better than a Tesla but it's also operating in a much harsher environment; and it was only designed to last 90 days...

I probably could have phased it better than 'little to no' maintenance but you're going to reduce overall maintenance significantly... probably by >90%.

- no oil changes
- no glow/spark plugs
- no belts
- no fuel filters
- no oil filters
- no Urea to add
- no EGR coolers/valves to clog
- no transmission
- no fuel pump
- no fuel injectors

>75k miles and nothing more than new tires... certainly not a myth that EVs require less maintenance so far. Although most problems with reciprocating engines arise after ~150k miles... so we'll see ;)

Further case-in-point; My drive train (battery, motor & inverter) is covered by an 8 year UNLIMITED mile warranty... anyone else offer a warranty with unlimited miles as standard? Anyone?
 
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nj1266

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In SoCal, where electricity costs .47c per kWh at the top tier, this website showed some interesting numbers:

http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/findacar.shtml

EV plug-in:

Per 25 miles of driving = $3.46

Jetta SW TDI:

Per 25 miles of driving = $1.80

guess I'll keep the Jetta

I charge my EV at 0.10$ per kWh and I am in SoCal. I charge between 10pm and 8am at the cheapest rate. Only an idiot would charge at peak hours. I did the math and my electric car costs me way less than my diesel car for every 1000 miles of driving.

If VW offers me a decent buyback then I will take it right now. I suspect they will do it when they find that that 09-14 golf and Jetta will be near impossible to get them to pass emissions and maintain decent drive ability.


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saGhost

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Further case-in-point; My drive train (battery, motor & inverter) is covered by an 8 year UNLIMITED mile warranty... anyone else offer a warranty with unlimited miles as standard? Anyone?
Actually, there *is* another unlimited mile warranty out there, and one that's been around for much longer than Tesla's.

Rolls-Royce offers a 4 year, unlimited mile bumper to bumper warranty on all of their cars (except for tires and glass.)

Admittedly, it's not exactly a comparable car/price tag, and I actually agree with the point you're making (and have experienced a degree of it myself with the Volt) - but you asked. :p
Walter
 

nwdiver

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Rolls-Royce offers a 4 year, unlimited mile bumper to bumper warranty on all of their cars (except for tires and glass.)
Cool; I had no idea... Rolls-Royce isn't a brand I typically shop for ;)
 

gcodori

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Any data to support your argument ?
The fact that while the mode of propulsion is different, the car surrounding it is still A CAR. I somehow wonder why this needs to be explained on an auto site...

Some components are the same as ICE such as chassis (bearings, bushings, shocks, etc). Also body and exterior (glass, bulbs, etc). Steering and suspension will be nearly identical.

Some are similar, such as brakes (still has pumps fluids and sensors). Air condition system may be electric driven but still has fluids pumps and sensors.

Some will be unique such as the cooling system for battery, motor and electrical (inverters get hot).

Are you saying that because the motor is electric that all of these systems are maintenence proof?

All I said was they have similar needs as gas powered vehicles minus the ICE components.

Also note that I am not knocking EVs. In fact I'd love to own a model S if I could. I think it's the future. A Passat GTE can't get here soon enough. Full electric would be better.


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saGhost

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The fact that while the mode of propulsion is different, the car surrounding it is still A CAR. I somehow wonder why this needs to be explained on an auto site...

Some components are the same as ICE such as chassis (bearings, bushings, shocks, etc). Also body and exterior (glass, bulbs, etc). Steering and suspension will be nearly identical.

Some are similar, such as brakes (still has pumps fluids and sensors). Air condition system may be electric driven but still has fluids pumps and sensors.

Some will be unique such as the cooling system for battery, motor and electrical (inverters get hot).

Are you saying that because the motor is electric that all of these systems are maintenence proof?

All I said was they have similar needs as gas powered vehicles minus the ICE components.

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The ICE parts (including the transmission, starter motor, and alternator) leaving takes out most of the things that fail often or require routine maintenance.

More importantly, removing the ICE changes the operating environment for the rest of the pieces...

If you have any experience with reliability testing, you'll know that a lot of it is done as "accelerated" testing - they make things wear out faster by running them in hotter environments than they normally see in service.

Also, a major factor in reliability is the vibration environment - this is why we have so much trouble making things that fly in helicopters reliable and long lasting.

So here's my point: By removing the engine and it's 200F coolant and 1400F exhaust pipes from under the hood, the thermal environment gets much less stressful for everything left under there (power electronics aren't permitted to reach 200F - all the modern EVs I know of use liquid cooling systems to keep the temps down.)

By removing the engine, the vibration levels throughout the car dropped significantly.

Both of these changes should make otherwise identical components last substantially longer than they would in a typical car.

No, it isn't maintenance proof - and there are a couple parts that see more load, like the struts and wheel bearings (EVs tend to be heavier for the power/load capacity.) But the brakes see far less load/wear because of regeneration, and the car as a whole should be much more reliable, with far fewer maintenance items - and most of them "on condition" rather than fixed mileage.
Walter
 

gcodori

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The ICE parts (including the transmission, starter motor, and alternator) leaving takes out most of the things that fail often or require routine maintenance.

More importantly, removing the ICE changes the operating environment for the rest of the pieces...

If you have any experience with reliability testing, you'll know that a lot of it is done as "accelerated" testing - they make things wear out faster by running them in hotter environments than they normally see in service.

Also, a major factor in reliability is the vibration environment - this is why we have so much trouble making things that fly in helicopters reliable and long lasting.

So here's my point: By removing the engine and it's 200F coolant and 1400F exhaust pipes from under the hood, the thermal environment gets much less stressful for everything left under there (power electronics aren't permitted to reach 200F - all the modern EVs I know of use liquid cooling systems to keep the temps down.)

By removing the engine, the vibration levels throughout the car dropped significantly.

Both of these changes should make otherwise identical components last substantially longer than they would in a typical car.

No, it isn't maintenance proof - and there are a couple parts that see more load, like the struts and wheel bearings (EVs tend to be heavier for the power/load capacity.) But the brakes see far less load/wear because of regeneration, and the car as a whole should be much more reliable, with far fewer maintenance items - and most of them "on condition" rather than fixed mileage.
Walter
Agreed! My only beef was the "little to none" for maintenence. All good in the hood.

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SageBrush

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the car surrounding it is still A CAR.
I am saying that all cars do not have identical maintenance costs. You asserted that the costs will be about the same. If you have useful data to back up your claim I'm interested in reading it.

I'll also emphasize that the original statement was wrt maintenance rather than repairs. Although nwdiver was not explicit I imagine he was thinking of the kinds of things that are handled during scheduled mileage checks in conventional cars like oil and transmission changes/flushes, brake flushes, spark plugs, injector cleaning, belts etc.

Here is CR's take on the routine maintenance of a Nissan LEAF. Nissan recommends relatively frequent brake flushes which is unusual for a car that relies on regen for most braking. Owners will have to decide if the recommendation has merit, but in any case it does not reflect the reccs of other manufacturers. I think Toyota recommends every 60k with the Prius, while this MIT educated engineer and Prius Guru found pristine brake fluid when he analyzed the fluid at 100k miles.
 
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VeeDubTDI

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I am saying that all cars do not have identical maintenance costs. You asserted that the costs will be about the same. If you have useful data to back up your claim I'm interested in reading it.
I think this issue has been resolved. Next?
 

nwdiver

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I think this issue has been resolved. Next?
Yes... I should have phrased what I stated more specifically... the components that are unique to electric cars... the motor, battery and inverter... require little to no maintenance as compared to the components unique to an ICE ;)

You obviously still need new tires from time to time.
 

bhtooefr

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And it's worth noting that EVs may be a bit harder on tires than ICE vehicles, due to additional weight.
 

turbovan+tdi

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Further case-in-point; My drive train (battery, motor & inverter) is covered by an 8 year UNLIMITED mile warranty... anyone else offer a warranty with unlimited miles as standard? Anyone?
Mitsubishi has a 10 year 100,000 mile warranty.
 

gcodori

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With the shift in VW to electric what are everyone's opinion regarding:
Would you purchase an electric vw?

Would your opinion change if vw purchased Tesla?

What if VW utilized the patents Tesla opened to the public?

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Tdijarhead

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I don't know if anyone has seen this article yet. The Telsa may yet be relegated to the forgotten dustbin of history as a short lived unworkable anomaly. A good idea in cities but not something that works in the rest of world.
The worlds largest automotive manufacturer has this to say about electric cars and their goal for future auto production.


Toyota Motor Corp. Chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada speaks during the 2015 Toyota Environmental Forum in Tokyo Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2015. Toyota, under ambitious environmental targets, is aiming to sell hardly any regular gasoline vehicles by 2050, only hybrids and fuel cells, to radically reduce emissions. Uchiyamada, known as the "father of the Prius," said the company was taking the environment seriously because it has always tried to contribute to a better society. (AP Photo/Yuri Kageyama)

Toyota, under ambitious environmental targets, is aiming to sell hardly any regular gasoline vehicles by 2050, only hybrids and fuel cells, to radically reduce emissions.
The automaker promised to involve governments, affiliated companies and other "stakeholders" in its push to reduce average emissions from Toyota cars by 90 percent by about 2050, compared with 2010 levels.
Electric cars weren't part of their vision, outlined by top Toyota Motor Corp. officials at a Tokyo museum on Wednesday, striking a contrast with rivals such as Nissan Motor Co., which has banked on that zero-emissions technology.
Toyota's commitments come at a time when the auto industry has been shaken by a scandal at Germany's Volkswagen AG, in which it admitted it cheated on diesel emissions tests covering millions of cars.
Toyota projected its annual sales of fuel cell vehicles will reach more than 30,000 by about 2020, which is 10 times its projected figure for 2017.
Fuel cells run on hydrogen and are zero-emissions. Toyota's Mirai fuel cell went on sale late last year. Toyota has received 1,500 orders for the Mirai in Japan, and it just went on sale in the U.S. and Europe.
Annual sales of hybrid vehicles will reach 1.5 million and by 2020 Toyota would have sold 15 million hybrids, nearly twice what it has sold so far around the world, it said.
Hybrids switch back and forth between a gasoline engine and an electric motor to deliver an efficient ride.
The Toyota Prius, which went on sale in 1997, is the top-selling hybrid, with about 4 million sold globally so far. Toyota is promising to develop a hybrid version in every category, including usually gas-guzzling sport-utility vehicles, as well as luxury models.
"You may think 35 years is a long time," Senior Managing Officer Kiyotaka Ise told reporters. "But for an automaker to envision all combustion engines as gone is pretty extraordinary."
Ise acknowledged some gasoline engine cars would remain in less developed markets, but only in small numbers.
He and other Toyota officials insisted on the inevitability of their overall vision, stressing that the problems of global warming and environmental destruction made a move toward a hydrogen-based society a necessity.
Experts agree more has to be done to curtail global warming and pollution, and nations are increasingly tightening emissions standards.
But they are divided on whether all gasoline engines will disappear, or they'll stay on, thanks to greener internal combustion engines, as well as the arrival of clean diesel technology.
Tatsuo Yoshida, senior analyst at Barclays Securities Japan in Tokyo, said Toyota's goals weren't far-fetched.
"The internal combustion engine is developing and metamorphosing into hybrids," he said. "Toyota has been working on this technology for a long time. When officials speak out like this, it means they are 120 percent confident this is their scenario."
As part of its environmental vision, Toyota also promised to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from production lines during manufacturing in 2030 to about a third of 2001 levels.
Toyota said it will develop manufacturing technology that uses hydrogen, and will use wind power at its Tahara plant, both by 2020. It also promised to beef up various recycling measures, including developing ways to build vehicles from recycled ones.
When asked why Toyota remained so cautious on electric vehicles, they said they take too long to recharge, despite battery innovations that have made them smaller, restricting them for short-range travel in cities.
Toyota Chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada, known as the "father of the Prius," said the company was taking the environment seriously because it has always tried to contribute to a better society.
"We have the same principles since our founding," he said, showing on stage a photo of Sakichi Toyoda, the Toyota founder's father, who invented a textile loom in 1891. "That is Toyota's DNA."
 

bhtooefr

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Hydrogen is ridiculously inefficient, though. And, for daily driving, Tesla's vehicles would be fine for almost everyone - the whole trend in the US of buying a vehicle to use for the exceptional cases that happen a couple times a year, when it makes it far worse for the daily usage, is ridiculous, when rental cars and other forms of transportation exist.
 

meerschm

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might be too early to condemn H2. have to see the details and how the fuel cell/drivetrain/body mass work out.

and if you are going to project, may as well include automated cars that show up like elevators, which charge while not in use.

2050 is a ways out.
 

gcodori

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Hydrogen is ridiculously inefficient, though. And, for daily driving, Tesla's vehicles would be fine for almost everyone - the whole trend in the US of buying a vehicle to use for the exceptional cases that happen a couple times a year, when it makes it far worse for the daily usage, is ridiculous, when rental cars and other forms of transportation exist.

In addition to this, Hydrogen is Toyota's option. Any news article from them will explain how this will be a wonder fuel and an answer to our problems.

Elon has already addressed the hydrogen issue. Basically the power (electricity) needed to convert hydrogen is better spent being used to power a car, not wasted to convert to a fuel to power a car. It's more efficient to skip that step and use the electricity directly.
 

saGhost

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I don't know if anyone has seen this article yet. The Telsa may yet be relegated to the forgotten dustbin of history as a short lived unworkable anomaly. A good idea in cities but not something that works in the rest of world.
The worlds largest automotive manufacturer has this to say about electric cars and their goal for future auto production.
Cost, safety, environment, reliability: Fuel cells are much worse across the board.

Right now, there are exactly nine places in california where you can refuel a hydrogen car:

http://www.cafcp.org/stationmap

Most of the time, several of those are down:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/513010068843714/?fref=nf

Building new fueling stations is expected to cost ~$3 million *a piece*:

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/56412.pdf

That's almost all taxpayer money, by the way. The $3 million station can only refuel 30 cars per day, by the way - and not in 5 minutes each if they all arrive right together.

(For reference, a standard Supercharger site costs about 10% of that and has 8 stalls, each of which can *fully* refuel a Model S in 75 minutes, or more likely do an 80% charge in 40 minutes - 216 cars in a day @ 80%.)

I don't want to spend too much time on safety, but the idea of storing the most mobile and dangerous gas we know of in a car at ten thousand psi is crazy. Here's a thread about what happened when a compressed natural gas car burned at one third the pressure and the safety device didn't work:

http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/gene...xplosion-dialup-warning-many-photos-7555.html

Oh, a here's a filling station that burned because someone used the wrong alloy of metal and the hydrogen got through it:

http://prod.sandia.gov/techlib/access-control.cgi/2012/128642.pdf

Any release of hydrogen is almost certain to lead to fire because of the wide range of combustion ratios and low activation energy...

As for the environmental part, they say it's renewable, and it can be - if you electrolyze water using 100% renewable electricity - which costs around 5x as much as steam reformation of natural gas; steam reformation would make a hydrogen driven mile cost about the same as a gas hybrid one.

http://www.fsec.ucf.edu/en/consumer/hydrogen/basics/production.htm

http://www.caloric.com/upload/Downloads/hydro.pdf

I don't have a link handy aside from a discussion thread, but when we assemble the numbers you get about half as far on electricity used to create hydrogen and run through a fuel cell as you do on electricity used to charge an EV from the grid.

Looked at the other way, that means if your fuel source isn't 100% renewable, the hydrogen car running off electrolyzed water pollutes twice as much as an EV. If it is 100% renewable, it requires twice as much renewable investment for the same result.

I don't have much data on reliability/durability, but right now the DoE says some state of the art cells can last 75,000 miles with only 10% degradation:

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/pdfs/accomplishments.pdf

And after all, DoE thinks the Mirai fuel cell stack might be as cheap as $4700 if manufactured in large volumes...

TL;DR: Hydrogen cars are foolish, wasteful, and dangerous. :)
Walter
 
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