Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

[turbobrick240]

I think any high voltage line has the potential to be incredibly dangerous. I have no plans to jab a fork in a lowly 120 V receptacle(even a gfci protected one) . A couple of years ago a tree took down a transmission line next to my uncles house. I just saw smoke and thought a car had gone off the road. As I approached I noticed a coil of line arcing away on the ground and glowing red hot. Not a safe situation.

 

[bhtooefr]

AFAIK, Tesla's plan for Megachargers (and Superchargers too) is to have solar panels, a battery bank, and a grid connection - the battery acting to smooth things and reduce load (time-shifting some of it to when the a truck isn't being charged).

 

[migbro]

Maybe this is where the money is to be made for Tesla. Let's say they are $1M each including Supercharger, and the company can somehow squeeze $200K out of each sale. 20% margin...is that possible? With the sale of only 1,000 trucks; Tesla would pocket a cool $2B.

Er, no. $200K x 1,000 equals $200 million not $2 billion.

And we already know Tesla's business plan is to lose money on every vehicle but make it up on volume.

 

[nwdiver]

2. I am amazed at how people can expound on new major product developments, huge infrastructure projects, super cars and trucks and how successful they will immediately be while only hearing a news release and seeing an artists sketch.

My enthusiasm is based on the car I've been driving for ~5 years without any oil changes and using the energy from my roof. The sketches help but it's not really the basis Also the rocket landings... those are cool too.

 

[Oilerlord]

Er, no. $200K x 1,000 equals $200 million not $2 billion.

And we already know Tesla's business plan is to lose money on every vehicle but make it up on volume.

Yup, the post was wrong on several levels. First by starting out with 10,000 units sold that I reduced to 1,000 for simplicity, but I left the $2B number intact. Surprised you didn't bust me on the ridiculous $1M price tag per truck - I wanted to edit that but it was already quoted. Oh well, we have our moments

Anyway, I was more interested in what profit margin Tesla is building into every sale - if any at all.

 

[GoFaster]

I have a hard time believing the Semi will ever be profitable at the prices quoted. I have a hard time believing it will ever recover its development costs. Heck, I have a hard time believing the Model 3 will ever be profitable, and I know I'm not the only one in the auto industry who thinks that.

 

[2015vwgolfdiesel]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

[turbobrick240]

The Tesla model X & S displaced the VW golf as the top selling cars in Norway in December. Over 50% of the new car sales there are EV's now!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/electrek.co/2017/12/19/tesla-breaks-new-records-norway-most-popular-automaker/amp/

 

[Oilerlord]

The Tesla model X & S displaced the VW golf as the top selling cars in Norway in December. Over 50% of the new car sales there are EV's now!

To add some context, there are a few reasons for that:

- Gasoline in Norway is $7 per gallon.
- EV charging in Norway is free.
- EV drivers don't pay road tolls.

However, the biggest reason Tesla's are so popular in Norway is because government incentives make a Tesla half the price of their luxury petrol counterparts. I found this:

"Tesla’s $73,000-price tag makes it far more expensive than other electric cars. Yet its size, speed, style and features put it in the same league as luxury BMWs and Audis—but at less than half the price. It is no surprise Norwegians are enthusiastic."

The article is a few years old, but I believe it's still relevant for why EV's are so popular there.

https://qz.com/119662/why-tesla-is-focused-on-oil-rich-norway-as-it-expands-beyond-the-us/

Put in perspective, the MSRP of a BMW 7 Series in the US is $83,000. I'm pretty sure we'd see a lot more Model S's sold if they were priced at $41,500 - and gasoline was at 7 bucks per gallon. The article mentions that the average fuel savings is $8,100 per year. That's big. If you live in Norway, it's crazy NOT to buy an electric car.

 

[oilhammer]

Yep, the reasons why are pretty good in favor of EVs there. Plus, they probably have better mass transit in urban areas, and of course the country is not as big and the populace isn't spread out all over the place.

Ironically, Norway's economy is in large part prosperous due to petroleum products.

 

[Oilerlord]

The article mentioned it can cost $50 in tolls to drive 250 KM, but you pay nothing if you drive an EV. The government stacked the deck against petrol vehicles.

I read another article where they are looking to implement a "Tesla Tax" of around $8,000 per vehicle. Still, I can't see that slowing down Tesla sales much given the operating costs of a similar petrol-based vehicle.

 

[turbobrick240]

Yeah, Norway certainly has been very strong in incentivizing EV's. But they aren't the only European nation with expensive petroleum fuels and EV incentives. Much of Europe(and China) is heading in the same direction:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/cleantechnica.com/2017/09/02/electric-car-incentives-norway-uk-france-germany-netherlands-belgium/amp/

 

[VeeDubTDI]

A Medium sized substation can handle ~100MW. I suspect the Mega-Chargers might take 13.8kV instead of the 480v that superchargers use.

As mentioned up thread... most trucks will be charged overnight at a more reasonable power level.

I was thinking something more along the lines of 4,160 volts for Megacharger installations.

 

[nwdiver]

I was thinking something more along the lines of 4,160 volts for Megacharger installations.

Yeah... that's possible too. 4160 and 13.8 are the same voltage class. I think it would depend on the local grid. I'm not familiar enough with primary voltages to know which is more common. I know that where I used to work our step-down was 115kV => 13.8kV => 480 => 208/120. The Aircraft Carrier I was on used 4160 for shore power.

I suppose they could parallel ~10 SC cabinets fed with 480 but that seems like an aweful lot of current.

In other news;

The Falcon Heavy is now assembled for launch; Still not sure if Elon is joking about putting his old roadster into Mars orbit...

 

[Oilerlord]

Yeah, Norway certainly has been very strong in incentivizing EV's. But they aren't the only European nation with expensive petroleum fuels and EV incentives.

You did read the part I posted where a Model S is half the cost of a BMW 7 series (or other comparable luxury vehicle) in Norway - right?

It's a LOT more than just $7 gasoline driving sales of Teslas in Norway. It's like "perfect storm" conditions for the sales of EV's.

A few European governments may choose to subsidize the proliferation of EV's but it's expensive. As mentioned earlier, the Norway government was considering a tax on EV's over 2 metric tons (a "Tesla Tax") - but it got overturned.

https://qz.com/1137704/norway-is-abandoning-its-plan-for-a-tesla-tax-on-electric-cars/

I'm not about to research GDP or other economic data for Norway - but clearly, they feel they are able to collect enough tax in other areas to keep EV incentives going while providing the level of social services that their voting public expect.

I look at these incentives a lot like how solar was subsidized all over Europe. Problem is, these incentives come & go on the whims of global & local economies - and the latest fashionable problem du jour a government can throw money at to attract voters.

Solar incentives were all the rage in Europe, and particularly in Spain. They contributed to every solar stock rocketing like Bitcoin. No doubt nwdiver will interpret that as how environmentally forward-thinking people living in Spain are, and how stupid WE are - but he'd be wrong. The government of Spain was paying highly lucrative feed-in-tariffs to people with solar - that is, until they decided they couldn't afford it anymore.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christ...spains-solar-policy-it-just-did/#59496fe792bb

Solar & EV subsidies in the US are far from safe, and it isn't just because the Great Pumpkin is in charge.

 

[nwdiver]

No doubt nwdiver will interpret that as how environmentally forward-thinking people living in Spain are, and how stupid WE are - but he'd be wrong. The government of Spain was paying highly lucrative fee-in-tariffs to people with solar - that is, until they decided they couldn't afford it anymore.

No; I've always been in favor of removing ALL subsidies including Price-Anderson. In place of subsidies we need a revenue neutral carbon tax that starts at ~$100/ton and increases ~5% every year. Let the market pick the winners. Maybe biodiesel is better than EVs... let the market decide... There's now a way to convert CO2 into rock... maybe keeping oil for fuel then paying to have it sucked from the air is better than EV+PV... let the market decide.

A recent rate case in NM could be the poster child for how badly we need price on carbon. My previous employer URENCO is concerned about higher electric rates so they tried to kill a 1GW wind farm because there was the POTENTIAL of an increase of $0.00025/kWh in rates. No where in the rate case was any consideration for the massive external costs of our addiction to fossil fuels. A $100/ton tax would have made the wind farm a 'no-brainer' economically. The consensus for how much CO2 is costing us in terms of wildfires, flooding, droughts, civil unrest, famine, refugees, rising sea levels etc, etc is as high as $220/ton

 

[Oilerlord]

Ironically, Norway's economy is in large part prosperous due to petroleum products.

Ironic, yes. To your point. Norway is #5 in oil production per capita. An affluent population can afford to buy a brand new Model S especially when it's cheap.

http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Energy/Oil/Production/Per-capita

 

[Oilerlord]

Ok, couldn't stop myself...had to look more into the shangri-la country of Norway. This was interesting:

https://mic.com/articles/78751/ever...a-millionaire-last-week-here-s-how#.uAUOOxZ9M

The oil b'ness be booming in Norway. Good thing they are saving the planet one subsidized Model S at at time. Not sure that quite makes up for their environmental sins though. A brain on this board may have been broken. Mr. Diver, this one is for you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbHtzqCge_8&t=90s

Logic is a wreath of pretty flowers which smell bad. Merry Christmas my friend!

 

[turbobrick240]

Ok, couldn't stop myself...had to look more into the shangri-la country of Norway. This was interesting:

https://mic.com/articles/78751/ever...a-millionaire-last-week-here-s-how#.uAUOOxZ9M

The oil b'ness be booming in Norway. Good thing they are saving the planet one subsidized Model S at at time. Not sure that makes up for their environmental sins though. A brain on this board may have been broken.

Yup, Norway is actually #2 in oil production per capita now. What I got from the article is that Norway is very smart when it comes to investing, and there is a strong correlation between EV ownership and happiness.

 

[migbro]

The Tesla model X & S displaced the VW golf as the top selling cars in Norway in December. Over 50% of the new car sales there are EV's now!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/electr...ew-records-norway-most-popular-automaker/amp/

Norway is a strange and messed up country. Tesla is doing well solely because the Norwegian gubmint wants it to for whatever reason in their weird, managed economy.

The Norwegian government publishes the salary of everyone in the country on a gubmint web site. Want to know how much your neighbor makes? Just look it up.

 

[turbobrick240]

Well, Norway consistently ranks at the top of happiness metrics(not sure how that's determined), so at least having that information publicly available doesn't seem to be making them miserable.
In Norway, happiness is not a warm gun. And yes, Norwegian wood is good. Sorry for that, but I'm a fan of the beetle and The Beatles.

 

[nwdiver]

Norway is a strange and messed up country. Tesla is doing well solely because the Norwegian gubmint wants it to for whatever reason in their weird, managed economy.

The Norwegian government publishes the salary of everyone in the country on a gubmint web site. Want to know how much your neighbor makes? Just look it up.

Whatever Norway is doing it's obviously working. Norway is almost always near the top of all the 'good' lists.

 

[2015vwgolfdiesel]

$7,500 gov subsidy still in the tax cut - jobs bill

$7,500 gov subsidy still in the tax cut - jobs bill.

 

[Oilerlord]

Norway is a strange and messed up country. Tesla is doing well solely because the Norwegian gubmint wants it to for whatever reason in their weird, managed economy.

The Norwegian government publishes the salary of everyone in the country on a gubmint web site.

Really...have you been there, or is the picture you're attempting to paint of Norway limited to the size of a 15" laptop screen? Their "weird" economy is oil based. They have the resource, and fund their country from it. Not sure where you find the weird in that.

Alberta has roughly the same population of Norway, and our economy is oil based too. If you visited Calgary, you'd think you're in Texas - of course, if Texas was 18 degrees in December and covered with snow.

On the contrary, there may be a few reasons that a person living in Norway could view the US as a strange & messed up country too.

 

[bhtooefr]

Seems like the current balance (of publicly, but not anonymously, searchable income records) is working well: http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-40669239

 

[Oilerlord]

A recent rate case in NM could be the poster child for how badly we need price on carbon. My previous employer URENCO is concerned about higher electric rates so they tried to kill a 1GW wind farm because there was the POTENTIAL of an increase of $0.00025/kWh in rates. No where in the rate case was any consideration for the massive external costs of our addiction to fossil fuels. A $100/ton tax would have made the wind farm a 'no-brainer' economically. The consensus for how much CO2 is costing us in terms of wildfires, flooding, droughts, civil unrest, famine, refugees, rising sea levels etc, etc

I wasn't logged in, so I guess guess the ignore list didn't kick in. Interesting post. Slanted of course, but interesting.

If we take your post literally, the economic "no-brainer" for URENCO was the attempt at killing a project that could have potentially costed them an increase of $0.00025 /kWh. Limited to that scope - it makes perfect sense.

I'm not opposed to pricing carbon / carbon taxes, only the way these taxes are sometimes implemented, and revenue distributed. In Alberta, we now pay carbon tax:

So everyone pays their fair share, and all the money collected goes to fight climate change, right? Nope. If you make less than $47,500 per year in Alberta, you get a Carbon levy rebate cheque every three months. Doesn't matter if you live in an apartment cranked up to 80 degrees in winter with the windows open. Doesn't matter if you drive an old diesel truck, or how much you drive it. You don't need to be environmentally responsible in any way - the only requirement is that you earn less than $47,500 per year. (or $95,000 as a couple).

I have 41 solar panels on my roof. Have planted trees. Have rain barrels. Grow some of our own food, and drive an electric car. Simply because my wife and I make over $95,000 per year - we don't get a rebate. My brother in law however, who burns firewood all winter in his wood stove to lower his natural gas bill however - does get a rebate.

Our Alberta government constantly high-fives themselves for being leaders on climate change. In my opinion, they are leaders disguising wealth distribution as a climate change solution.

 

[nwdiver]

I have 41 solar panels on my roof. Have planted trees. Have rain barrels. Grow some of our own food, and drive an electric car. Simply because my wife and I make over $95,000 per year - we don't get a rebate. My brother in law however, who burns firewood all winter in his wood stove to lower his natural gas bill however - does get a rebate.

The objective of a Carbon Tax isn't to 'reward' people that have Solar Panels and EVs. It's to internalize the external costs of fossil fuels. The primary argument against a carbon tax is that it disproportionately hurts people that cannot reduce their use of fossil fuels with Solar Panels and EVs. Shifting the revenue from a carbon tax to low income people is meant to address this argument.

EVERYONE still pays the external cost of fossil fuels so the cost deference between wind or gas reflects the external costs and will factor into decisions. If you're paying the FULL cost of using natural gas suddenly wind is much cheaper.

 

[aja8888]

The objective of a Carbon Tax isn't to 'reward' people that have Solar Panels and EVs. It's to internalize the external costs of fossil fuels. The primary argument against a carbon tax is that it disproportionately hurts people that cannot reduce their use of fossil fuels with Solar Panels and EVs. Shifting the revenue from a carbon tax to low income people is meant to address this argument.

EVERYONE still pays the external cost of fossil fuels so the cost deference between wind or gas reflects the external costs and will factor into decisions. If you're paying the FULL cost of using natural gas suddenly wind is much cheaper.

The old low income discussion. That's generally just vote buying.

I am retired and have no taxable income. We live off pre-taxed savings, pay NO state or federal TAXES, drive a big gas guzzeling truck, heat with oil and throw away aluminum beer cans. Under that scenario, we would get the rebate in Canada. Really funny stuff.

 

[nwdiver]

The old low income discussion. That's generally just vote buying.

I am retired and have no taxable income. We live off pre-taxed savings, pay NO state or federal TAXES, drive a big gas guzzeling truck, heat with oil and throw away aluminum beer cans. Under that scenario, we would get the rebate in Canada. Really funny stuff.

Ok... in your own words... describe the purpose of a revenue neutral carbon tax.

 

[aja8888]

Ok... in your own words... describe the purpose of a revenue neutral carbon tax.

Are you on this site all day long?