Effects of burning fossil fuels:

[BioDiesel]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/02/16/60minutes/main1323169.shtml

Another report estimates that if the Greenland ice melts over the next few hundred years, sea water levels will rise 23 feet.
http://www.freedomblog.us/2006/06/21/the-shrinking-american-coastline/
[My mistake, if Greenland AND Antartica melt, sea levels will rise 23 feet. My apologies to the mathmaticians]

It doesn't take too much imagination to visual that effect on coastal cities. In NYC alone, millions would be homeless, the worlds banking and investment center inoperative.

 

[hank miller]

I call BS! Do you know how tiny greenland is compared to the size of the earth? In order to in order to raise the ocean levels 23 feet, greenland would have to have an ice covering that reaches well into outerspace!

The volume of a sphere is 4/3 pi r^3.

The earth is about 6000km in diameter. That is 210 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 meters cubed. Adding 23 feet (7 meters) is 6000007m which would be 216 000 756 000 882 000 343meters cubed. Subtract and the additional volume from greenland is 6 000 756 000 882 000 343 cubic meters. greenland is 2000000 km2. So divide that out and the icesheet of greenland is 1401512002m! That is about 870 859 miles - significantly more than the distance the moon is from earth.

Now you would be correct to argue that I destroyed all my significant digits in doing the math above, but even still, you can see that the ice sheet on greenland isn't nearly large enough to make a significant change in the level of the oceans.

Please feel free to replicate my results. While I didn't believe the 23feet number, I didn't think it could be that far off. However I cannot find a mistake in the above either.

 

[40X40]

cBS news, now with more crap and less science....

Please don't waste our time with bunk like this!!

Bill

 

[redlm]

I do believe that if sea levels rise 23 ft over the next 100 years or so, someone may notice before they become homeless.

 

[wjdell]

Its more serious then you may think, I wish it were not. For some of us not thinking about it is best - The 7 things most likely to ruin our civilization I think that warming is now number 1.

 

[Slave2school]

I'm sure we'll have a nice pandemic wipe a significant portion of the middle class out and the issue will be staved off for a at least 200 years

 

[GoFaster]

Hank, your numbers are wrong

The diameter of the earth is about 12,000 km; the *radius* is 6000 km. And you forgot to do the "4/3 pi" multiplication. Initial volume is 904 320 000 000 000 000 000 m3. With 7 m higher sea level one has to remember that only 70% of earth is covered by sea. The volume of a sphere of radius 6 000 007 m is 904 323 165 123 692 641 436 m3. The surplus is 70% (fraction of earth covered by sea) of the difference, 2 215 586 584 849 005 m3. I'll take your area of Greenland for granted. It works out to an ice sheet 1107 m thick over the area you quoted - which is not unreasonable.

And remember, Greenland is not the only ice sheet affected. The whole of the polar ice cap (north AND south) could be affected. I think you can rest assured that if ALL of the polar ice caps melted, the sea level would be raised by considerably more than 23 feet. This would be ruinous for not only low-lying urban areas but also the entire polar ecosystems and coastal ecosystems the world over (if there are any left by that time ...).

 

[40X40]

The value of coastal land continues to rise, and the banks would not
be loaning money on land soon to be underwater, now would they??

Bill

 

[GoFaster]

Just a quickie FYI, I deleted some posts that had controversial but definitely off-topic remarks in them.

40x40, I do not think the implications of rising seawater levels have sunk in to banking or insurance folks yet. Economic systems are notoriously short-sighted, but this is a long-term problem that is foreseen (by some people) but has not actually progressed to a point where there is physical evidence yet.

It's worth noting that Arctic polar bears in northern Canada are already suffering from habitat loss and changes to their environment due to reduction in sea ice. Melting sea ice doesn't change the sea level because sea ice that is frozen is still "there" taking up space of the water, even if it's solid rather than liquid. It's still a big, big problem.

 

[40X40]

Brian,
Thank you for the cleanup!
North America is no longer the 'big polluter' in the world and will soon no longer be the 'big consumer' on this planet.
The Far East is where the action will be, and that is where the 'problem'
can most effectively be addressed.

Cheers

Bill

 

[Slave2school]

We could still stand to have a few less coal plants and fewer whiners about wind turbines cluttering up the ocean view here. By far east do you mean China?

 

[spaceman12321]

"The ice captures everything in the air, laying down a record covering half a million years... Mayewski says we haven't seen a temperature rise to this level going back at least 2,000 years, and arguably several thousand years. "


We call that a 2,000 year cycle.


"In Iceland, he showed 60 Minutes glaciers that were growing until the 1990s and are now melting. In fact, 98 percent of the world's mountain glaciers are melting. "


Again, known as a cycle.



Should we do what we can? Sure. But the world isn't going to end on our accord. Mr Gore will be meeting our maker long before anybody dies of drowning in NYC.

 

[BioDiesel]

" I do not think the implications of rising seawater levels have sunk in to banking or insurance folks yet."

Insurance has noticed. Several no longer right policies in coastal southern states or have doubled or tripled premiums.
"..climate change projections indicate that by 2020, the risk premium will have to be increased.."
http://64.233.161.104/search?q=cach...ion+increase+premium&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=1

"... Virtually all segments of the industry have a degree of vulnerability to the likely impacts of climate change, .."
"... Stresses unrelated to weather but conspiring with climate change impacts to amplify the net adverse impact...."
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/309/5737/1040.pdf

 

[Long_Range]

I must take issue with the op's prediction of any collapse in the banking sector. My American Express card kept working after 9/11.
Can't help but believe Nero will be counting his money as his ship sinks.


That said it's not our fault. Our as in us in the USA.
The hard core tree huggers want to par down the population of the world in order to save it! Someone should tell them about volcanoes and earthquakes. Also I've yet to see any of these environmentalist volunteer to be castrated in order to stay world population growth. Where is their commitment.

 

[GoFaster]

To blame climate change on volcanic eruptions while disregarding the human input is like having one's head in the sand. YES, volcanoes can have a significant influence but that influence has ALWAYS been there. The increase in atmospheric CO2 since the beginning of the industrial revolution (mostly in the last 50 years) is overwhelmingly due to human influence - not volcanoes.

YES, there is natural fluctuation in climates, but EVERY credible climatologist recognizes the contribution to global warming that mankind has made and continues to make.

And, to place all responsibility on the Far East to not increase their CO2 emissions while simultaneously not reducing ours in North America is selfish and irresponsible. YES, the Far East is expected to be a big contributor to further *increases* in CO2 emissions, but here in North America we are still per capita contributing far more than our share. Canada has not been living up to our Kyoto responsibilities (Too much talk, not enough action) and the USA did not subscribe to it at all ... even though the Kyoto reductions can only be regarded as "a start", we have not even done THAT and have continued in the wrong direction.

Why have national building codes not been changed to improve insulation and reduce heating/cooling loads? We know how to do it, we just haven't implemented it.

Why are we not putting more into actually implementing renewable energy sources?

I agree that there are too many people in this world for our resources to continue to support. My perspective is from the engineering point of view, but there are limits to what can be done. The socioeconomic implications are a whole different matter ...

 

[KS_Jetta]

I just watched a Discovery Channel program on Greenland. It is colder there now than when the Vikings "discovered" it. While there is no denying the fact that we are taking more carbon out of the earth than we are removing from the atmosphere (currently), there are examples out there that suggest we don't look far enough back in history before we cite climate issues.

 

[BioDiesel]

If cimate change isn't happening as a result of fossil fuel usage, why is Exxon Mobil spending millions to refute it?

"In 2005, Exxon contributed $2.9 million to 39 groups that, according to the Royal Society (UK), misrepresent the science of climate change. The Royal Society issued a letter to Exxon asking the company to end its support of such groups.

Bob Ward of the society wrote: "It is now more crucial than ever that we have a debate which is properly informed by the science. For people to be still producing information that misleads people about climate change is unhelpful. The next [UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climat Change] report should give people the final push that they need to take action and we can't have people trying to undermine it." "

Info on the Royal Society:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Society
Isaac Newton, Samuel Pepys, and others.

 

[BioDiesel]

Greenland ice melting [despite being colder]: http://sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/289/5478/428
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/313/5795/1958
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn9717-greenland-ice-cap-may-be-melting-at-triple-speed.html
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn4864 [with volume estimates for the kitchen mathamaticians]

Runaway melting in Greenland:
"Gregory has analysed 35 different predictions of climate change from seven global climate models. All but one forecast that the threshold for runaway melting on Greenland will be exceeded, in some cases as early as 2035.

He says that if the world warms above this threshold, melting will accelerate. If warming stabilises at 3 degrees Celsius, the ice sheet could survive for several thousand years. But if temperatures rise by 8 degrees Celsius, which several scenarios predict, then it would disappear in 1000 years."

 

[BioDiesel]

my AmEx card worked after 9/11...

True, but 91,000 NY'ers lost their jobs.....

"While the terrorist attack caused massive and heartwrenching loss of life and property, its economic impact so far has been on the scale of a medium-sized recession. Private employment in New York as of July stood 91,000 jobs below the July 2001 level "

 

[BioDiesel]

"Mr Gore will be meeting our maker long before anybody dies of drowning in NYC."

People may well be drowning in NYC long before levels rise 20 feet.
Levels have only risen 8" so far, but a storm surge lasting only a couple days
wiped out New Orleans. Don't forget, storms are predicted to increase in frequency and severity.

"Overpeck and his colleagues have used computer models to create a series of maps that show how susceptible coastal cities and island countries are to the sea rising at different levels. The maps show that a 1-meter (3-foot) rise would swamp cities all along the U.S. eastern seaboard. A 6-meter (20-foot) sea level rise would submerge a large part of Florida."

Some models show that 150 ft of land is flooded for every 1 foot rise in sea level in Florida.
So thats 150 * 20 = 3,000 feet of lost coastline. Having been to Jacksonville, and Daytona and Ft. LAuderdale,
I'd estimate that would leave 20% of Florida homeless or jobless. Of course thats over many hundred years.
It's enough time to bulldoze the subterranean structures and create a new beach that would last 100 years.

 

[KS_Jetta]

Aircraft laser-altimeter surveys over northern Greenland in 1994 and 1999

From the sciencemag article. Might be a little more difficult to compare ice tickness from 1994 to 900 AD.

Don't get me wrong - I work every day to lessen the environmental impact I and the company I work for leave behind.

 

[BioDiesel]

T-shirt weather in New England in January?

Record warmth in the Northeast-

It was 70*F today in CT, Boston, NYC.
Warmest winter in 111 years.

"A cold front coming into the Northeast was expected to begin lowering temperatures Saturday night, said Neil Stuart, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service.

Eight of the 12 warmest years on record have happened since 1990, and the big culprit for the overall trend has been global warming, said David Robinson, the New Jersey state climatologist at Rutgers University.

"You can't explain this without including the enhancement of greenhouse gases," Robinson said ".

England is having it's warmest season since it took records in the 1600's.

 

[TornadoRed]

The sea level rose 6" in the 20th century -- was that one of the more significant events in 20th century history?

If the sea level rises 12" in the 21st century, will 22nd-century humans rank that as one of the more significant events?

A recent report claimed that increased precipitation was causing the Antarctic icecap to grow, not shrink. As Hank Miller suggested, the Antarctic icecap dwarfs the Greenland glaciers. And coastal Greenland was warmer 1000 years ago than it is today, according to the Norse explorers.

As for the polar bears, they will have plenty of time to make their way to land. Then they can compete with grizzly bears for the abundant caribou. Polar bear populations have doubled in the last 30 years.

I'm not sure if seal populations will rise or fall, or what is happening with the grizzlies.

 

[BioDiesel]

Banks and climate change

from ICF, International Finance Corp.:

"IFC is the first multi-lateral development bank and private sector lender to assess and require climate change impacts of its annual investment portfolio."

and:

"Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are inducing global changes in our natural environment. As the climate change debate and private sector market solutions evolve, ICF International continues to offer its clients around the globe unparalleled analytical, policy, and business management services. Since 1987, ICF International has been at the forefront of preparing leading-edge climate change technical and policy analyses, identifying viable market solutions, and building real-world management tools."


Summary of recent ins. and banking industry activities related to c.g.:
teasers:

" "The insurance business is the first in line to be affected by climate change ... it could bankrupt the industry," "

"Munich Re, another of the world's largest reinsurers, takes a similar stand, recently stating that "the threatened climate changes demand urgent and drastic measures.""

""[A]s bankers to those industries and companies which are really threatened by climate change, we have to be concerned and we must recognize that the financial markets will be affected by climate change....ite contamination and lender liability are only the tip of the banker's 'environmental iceberg.' Climate change is, from my perspective, the mass lying underneath the water line and...[it] will probably surface soon.""

above quotes are found here--v
http://www.smartcommunities.ncat.org/articles/warming_di.shtml



"According to many experts around the world, including a U.N.-commissioned panel of 2,500 scientists, weather-related threats to U.S. coastal areas and countless other regions have been intensified by human activities, primarily the burning of carbon-based fuels."

 

[40X40]

Summary of recent ins. and banking industry activities related to c.g.:
teaser:
" "The insurance business is the first in line to be affected by climate change ... it could bankrupt the industry," "
http://www.smartcommunities.ncat.org...rming_di.shtml

Your 'recent summary' is from 1996....

'If you don't like the weather, stick around... It'll change.' Very old saying
and still true.

You can keep selling the fear thing all you want, I ain't buyin'. And I
hope to have a nice crop of soybeans this year too.

Here is a forcast for ya'll: Periods of warming and cooling with constant
whining for the forseeable future.

Cheer up!

Bill

 

[BioDiesel]

..As for the polar bears, they will have plenty of time to make their way to land...

Looks like they'll have less weight to carry too. :^

" Polar bears are threatened with extinction because global warming is causing rapid environmental change in the Arctic, including the melting of the polar bear’s sea ice habitat."

" A shorter spring hunting season caused by progressively earlier breakup of sea ice, reduces the chances of reproductive success for female polar bears.

Ian Stirling, a research scientist with the Canadian Wildlife Service, noted that the average weight of adult female polar bears in western Hudson Bay have fallen from 650 pounds in 1980 to just 507 pounds in 2004, a 22 percent reduction. "

U of A biologist doesn't share your optimism:
"Derocher says if global warming continues unchecked, some remnant populations of polar bears may manage to hang on in the high Canadian archipelago or on permanent polar ice at very high latitudes."

 

[Long_Range]

My comment to my American Express card working after 9/11 was simply to to point out the resiliency or the world economic infrastructure.

For the very few of you out their in Internet land that don't know. The AMEX home office was next door to the twin towers and suffered complete destruction.

Point being the total futility of some fools thinking they could bring down our economy by knocking down a few buildings and murdering a few thousand innocent people.

Then their is the fact that our enemies blame the weather on us here in the USA along with every new disease.

What riles me up is when citizens of the USA spout this Communist or **** propaganda.

 

[TornadoRed]

the average weight of adult female polar bears in western Hudson Bay have fallen from 650 pounds in 1980 to just 507 pounds in 2004, a 22 percent reduction. "

How do they get those bears to sit on the scale?

And what exactly is a healthy weight for female polar bears? Are they real skinny now, or were they obese previously?

 

[mparker326]

Record warmth in the Northeast-

It was 70*F today in CT, Boston, NYC.
Warmest winter in 111 years.

Did global warming cause the warm winter 111 years ago?

 

[BioDiesel]

"Did global warming cause the warm winter 111 years ago?"

Obviously not. A random variation is expected. Having a 'warmest year' is not remarkable, as you point out. But that is not the complete story as you will discover below ....


" ... The last ten years has seen 9 of the 10 warmest years on record with only 1996 not making the top ten.

Phil Jones of the Climate Research Unit at the UEA said, "That 9 of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred in the last decade is truly remarkable."

Met Office climate scientist David Parker added, "Average global temperature has risen by around 0.7 °C since the end of the 19th century and it is very likely that the warming over the past 50 years is mainly due to human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels." "