Diesel shortage.

[STDOUBT]

Making the rounds is this story about the US reserves of Diesel fuel at an all-time low.
Just wondering if anyone has industry insight as to how far this could go.
Bloomberg (paywall) October 25, 2022 at 2:11 PM PDT:
The US Diesel Crisis Is Here and It's Spreading Along the East Coast

The US Diesel Crisis Is Here and It's Spreading Along the East Coast

The diesel shortage that had the White House on edge last week is spreading from the Northeast to the Southeast, prompting at least one supplier to initiate emergency protocols.

www.bloomberg.com

Diesel inventories nationwide are at lowest seasonal level ever heading into winter, and some areas in the Northeast have already started rationing fuel.
New Eastern Outlook ~ 11.04.2022:
NATO Sanctions and the Coming Global Diesel Fuel Disaster

NATO Sanctions and the Coming Global Diesel Fuel Disaster | New Eastern Outlook

Amid the ongoing global inflation crisis, NATO heads of state and mainstream media repeat a mantra that high energy prices are a direct result of Putin’s actions in Ukraine since end of February. The reality is that it is the western sanctions that are responsible. Those sanctions including...

journal-neo.org

While most of us rarely think about diesel fuel as anything other than a pollutant, in fact it is essential to the entire world economy in a way few energy sources are. The director general of Fuels Europe, part of the European Petroleum Refiners Association, stated recently, “… there is a clear link between diesel and GDP, because almost everything that goes into and out of a factory goes using diesel.”

 

[[486]]

there really ain't much to be made for apolitical comments, heh

Prolly go much like the materials shortages and such that have been going on for the last couple years, ain't the end of the world, just the new normal

Keep an eye out for an old heating oil tank to plop in your yard somewhere, 265gal is a significant amount for our cars, almost uselessly small in the 10mpg truck world but almost worth the effort when paired with a 45mpg car

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

I've had a 275 gallon tank with a pump and fuel nozzle in my garage for 15 years. I usually get it filled when it gets down to half full, which gives me a buffer if delivery is delayed. Last fill cost $5.199 with taxes, which seemed like a lot at the time (a few weeks ago) but not so much now.

 

[lemoncurd]

I've had a 275 gallon tank with a pump and fuel nozzle in my garage for 15 years. I usually get it filled when it gets down to half full, which gives me a buffer if delivery is delayed. Last fill cost $5.199 with taxes, which seemed like a lot at the time (a few weeks ago) but not so much now.

How do you deal with winter time?

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Winter is no problem. The supplier sells winterized fuel in winter, and I also dose it with a lubricity and anti-gel additive when it's delivered. I usually have it filled every 2 months or so.

 

[Steve Addy]

Winterizing is simple, dump in sufficient PS white jug or some other cocktail with sufficient anti-gel properties.

Honestly I'd prefer it if they would just treat D2 instead of blending D2 / D1 (or kero) for winter. At least then we wouldn't have the decreased BTU content for winter that hits the mpg.

Steve

 

[[486]]

Honestly I'd prefer it if they would just treat D2 instead of blending D2 / D1 (or kero) for winter. At least then we wouldn't have the decreased BTU content for winter that hits the mpg.

plenty of places do
there are stations here that you can buy unwinterized #2, #1, and winterized "premium #2" just like the various types of gasoline on offer

 

[Steve Addy]

plenty of places do
there are stations here that you can buy unwinterized #2, #1, and winterized "premium #2" just like the various types of gasoline on offer

We apparently don't get that here in Iowa...all stations AFAIK get the same treatment package. I've asked and have never found a station in Iowa where I can get untreated D2 or even winterized D2...it's always a blend.

Steve

 

[hutchman]

Last news blurb I heard ... diesel supply is like 24 days left. I feel sorry for folks that use home heating oil. Gonna be interesting this year.

 

[lemoncurd]

Last news blurb I heard ... diesel supply is like 24 days left. I feel sorry for folks that use home heating oil. Gonna be interesting this year.

We literally cannot afford to fill our tank. We filled it half way couple months ago, and expect to be out of oil middle of winter.

Thankfully we only rely on it for hot water, not heat. When we run out of oil, we will be showering at my work's gym/rec center. (Will be a good incentive for me to finally hit the gym and work this covid weight off...)

Though, I am very sorry for people without this option and those who rely on oil for their heat. It is ridiculous.

Home heating oil near me has been more expensive than diesel for some time. Until recently atleast. Due to that I was contemplating on putting a hitch on my TDI, getting a trailer, and buying a 1000L water tub crate to fill with pump diesel and then dump into my tank at home.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

I haven't had my home heating oil tank filled recently, but recent fills have cost less per gallon than the over the road diesel I buy for my vehicles. I'm on a budget plan for my home heating, and although the monthly cost is twice what it was during the lowest oil price period in the pandemic, it's about the same as it was in 2008. And of course dollars are smaller now than they were 14 years ago.

So although I understand that the change in cost is a shocker, I don't think our actual cost of heating oil adjusted for inflation is at an all time high.

 

[TDIDaveNH]

Inflation never has anything to do with the physical thing that got inflated...its just the dollar loosing value...by design. The more you know...(cue stardust trail)

 

[lemoncurd]

I haven't had my home heating oil tank filled recently, but recent fills have cost less per gallon than the over the road diesel I buy for my vehicles. I'm on a budget plan for my home heating, and although the monthly cost is twice what it was during the lowest oil price period in the pandemic, it's about the same as it was in 2008. And of course dollars are smaller now than they were 14 years ago.

So although I understand that the change in cost is a shocker, I don't think our actual cost of heating oil adjusted for inflation is at an all time high.

Yeah it's just poor timing, I'll recover end of winter but I run the risk of being out of oil before next fill up. Not a huge deal, I think I can make another half fill work

Regardless, it isnt fun, and this looming diesel shortage isnt helping things.

 

[[486]]

Home heating oil near me has been more expensive than diesel for some time. Until recently atleast. Due to that I was contemplating on putting a hitch on my TDI, getting a trailer, and buying a 1000L water tub crate to fill with pump diesel and then dump into my tank at home.

just fill a jerry can or two every time you're in town
doesn't take long to fill your tank at home

delivery charges are a real big deal, funny how it can more than completely eat up the cost benefit of buying non-road-taxed heating oil

 

[lemoncurd]

delivery charges are a real big deal, funny how it can more than completely eat up the cost benefit of buying non-road-taxed heating oil

yup, why i was thinking about doing the liquid crate + trailer thing lol

though finding un-taxed heating oil/farm diesel here has been difficult..

 

[oilhammer]

I've got several 55 gal drums at the farm, we use it primarily for the tractors, but if necessary the TDIs will consume it. I've been driving diesels since 1989, and I've never paid a lot of attention to price, but lately it has been a shocker because I've never seen it this high here.

 

[[486]]

yup, why i was thinking about doing the liquid crate + trailer thing lol

but that is a large expense that cuts into your savings instead of a li'l disposacan or whatever

see also: IBC tote full of diesel is over a thousand pounds and very much into hazmat territory where even 55 gallon drums are a legal load

 

[oilhammer]

There are rural folks running around with 200 gal fuel tanks in the bed of their pickup trucks everywhere, with no "hazmat" anything required. How do you think they go out into the field to fill up those big combines? It isn't with jerry cans or 55 gal drums, LOL.

(BTW, I literally live right smack in the middle of farms, I see this often... the house with the green roof is mine)

 

[[486]]

There are rural folks running around with 200 gal fuel tanks in the bed of their pickup trucks everywhere, with no "hazmat" anything required. How do you think they go out into the field to fill up those big combines? It isn't with jerry cans or 55 gal drums, LOL.

transfer tanks can be up to 110 gallons before you run into DOT issues, thus the explosion of multi-tank fuel trailers that have a multitude of 110 gallon tanks all valved together

transfer tanks also garner a lot less attention than an IBC tote on a little trailer behind an NB

 

[oilhammer]

DOT must be pretty lax on that here, because these are not the 110 gal saddle tanks that slide in and under a bed mounted toolbox I am talking about (I see plenty of those, too). I'm talking about the ones that take up all the useful bed space of a full size pickup. Some of these big JD Combines have tanks that hold over 300 gallons of diesel. And they don't stop during harvest. They'll run them 24-7 non-stop until the job is done.

Unless these farmers DO have the proper permits, I suppose. They also haul a lot of that ammonia that is used for fertilizer that is an ingredient in making meth, so it has to be under lock and key.

 

[Jr mason]

It probably varies state to state but here farmers are required to have an applicators license. Without one you are severely limited in the amount of chemicals and pesticides you are able to purchase. Many just opt to let the farm Co Ops spray the fields rather than deal with all the regulation and liability.

The delta between highway fuel and off road fuel is the smallest its ever been that I've seen. The higher the price the smaller the difference. Fed highway tax is around .45 cents per gallon. That tax is eliminated from offroad fuel but state sales tax is now added - Ohio is .07 cents on the dollar. If off road is $5 per gallon, add .35 cents per gallon sales tax. The difference is negligible.

Even the commercial fuel card I have that has traditionally been good for a healthy savings has vanished. The purchasing power of the big fuel buyers is gone. Crazy times.

 

[JONZDOG]

Maybe the western nations are stockpiling for military purposes after November elections

 

[Jr mason]

It dang sure ain't us. Our coo coo in chief has purposely depleted our reserves.

 

[[486]]

That tax is eliminated from offroad fuel but state sales tax is now added

Ah! that's what I wasn't thinking about. Huh.
I wanna guess that specifically purchased heating oil would be tax exempt, because there's a form you can fill out to tax-exempt your electric bill if you heat with electric in the winter...

 

[Jr mason]

I couldn't tell you for sure, but it didn't used to be exempt. I heated with oil a number of years and always had to pay sales tax.
The only way I'm aware of to claim tax exemption is to own a farm or similar....but again I'm not familiar enough with the tax codes to say for sure. I also am sure these things vary state to state.
When our home was built 20 years ago there was a big push to go electric. Our electric Co op was offering substantial all electric rates. Monetarily it worked out well for several years....until they (the state) axed the subsidized program. Now all the sudden the same all electric home was producing an electric bill in the dead of winter that would make a car payment blush. I dealt with it for a winter and went back to the wood heat I grew up with. It's a little work (10-12 cords per year) but that's what kids are for
Not to mention the heat is so much better. The house is actually warm when it's below zero outside.....

 

[Ragdude]

Making the rounds is this story about the US reserves of Diesel fuel at an all-time low.
Just wondering if anyone has industry insight as to how far this could go.
Bloomberg (paywall) October 25, 2022 at 2:11 PM PDT:
The US Diesel Crisis Is Here and It's Spreading Along the East Coast

The US Diesel Crisis Is Here and It's Spreading Along the East Coast

The diesel shortage that had the White House on edge last week is spreading from the Northeast to the Southeast, prompting at least one supplier to initiate emergency protocols.

www.bloomberg.com

Diesel inventories nationwide are at lowest seasonal level ever heading into winter, and some areas in the Northeast have already started rationing fuel.
New Eastern Outlook ~ 11.04.2022:
NATO Sanctions and the Coming Global Diesel Fuel Disaster

NATO Sanctions and the Coming Global Diesel Fuel Disaster | New Eastern Outlook

Amid the ongoing global inflation crisis, NATO heads of state and mainstream media repeat a mantra that high energy prices are a direct result of Putin’s actions in Ukraine since end of February. The reality is that it is the western sanctions that are responsible. Those sanctions including...

journal-neo.org

While most of us rarely think about diesel fuel as anything other than a pollutant, in fact it is essential to the entire world economy in a way few energy sources are. The director general of Fuels Europe, part of the European Petroleum Refiners Association, stated recently, “… there is a clear link between diesel and GDP, because almost everything that goes into and out of a factory goes using diesel.”

huh? who thinks of diesel as a pollutant?

 

[atc98002]

went back to the wood heat I grew up with.

Never been able to heat with wood. The wife and both kids suffered asthma with any sort of smoke. Even a sealed pellet stove has too much leakage into the home. Nat gas and now a heat pump (with gas backup) keeps us comfortable.

 

[Jr mason]

Never been able to heat with wood. The wife and both kids suffered asthma with any sort of smoke. Even a sealed pellet stove has too much leakage into the home. Nat gas and now a heat pump (with gas backup) keeps us comfortable.

Heat pump was our primary source of heat prior to wood. I guess they're ok for mild climates but when it gets cold all they do is run constantly and blow luke warm air to boot. I didn't realize how mediocre it was until we went to wood heat.

I know what you mean about the dust and allergens. I grew up heating with wood, it's a dirty heat no matter how you slice it. That's why I bought an outdoor unit.

 

[J_dude]

Never been able to heat with wood. The wife and both kids suffered asthma with any sort of smoke. Even a sealed pellet stove has too much leakage into the home. Nat gas and now a heat pump (with gas backup) keeps us comfortable.

Wonder if one of those “rocket” stoves would work for you, virtually no smoke with those units

 

[J_dude]

I know what you mean about the dust and allergens. I grew up heating with wood, it's a dirty heat no matter how you split it. That's why I bought an outdoor unit.

There, I fixed it for you.