Diesel prices have been steady to lower since October. Now set to rise.

[TornadoRed]

French refineries are closed by a strike.
The European Union declared an embargo on Russian fuel imports from February 5th.
In the US, refiners are preparing for maintenance season.
Inventories of middle distillates are below the bottom of the 5-year range in the US, and demand is still reasonably strong.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Diesel-Markets-Brace-For-A-Chaotic-February.html

 

[turbobrick240]

At least it sounds like a temporary short term problem, and prices are expected to drop this year.

 

[Golf Wang]

Yeah I saw news like this a week or two ago and prices have only continued to fall where I am. I got diesel for $4.25 in New Jersey yesterday. I hate to say it, but this is probably the trough. I don’t imagine it getting much cheaper, and if it does it won’t stay that low for long

 

[dhangejr]

I agree diesel price is probably never gonna get much lower. I think it will continue skyrocket. This is the main reason I wanna sell my PD wagon, they are not great for running grease

 

[AndyBees]

Yesterday, I saw the cheapest Diesel Fuel price in three to five years and maybe further back. $3.499 with RUG at $3.199. I saw it at several places with similar prices. The Truck Stops are still above $4.00 .......

 

[TornadoRed]

My prediction was wrong because I didn't think crude oil prices were going to fall so much during the last three months. I thought when Joe Biden said he would start refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when crude prices dropped into the $70's/barrel that he might actually do it.

And now we're headed into the brief period in most years when regular gasoline prices rise above the price of diesel. It might happen, at least in some states.

 

[AndyBees]

I've been driving VW Diesels since January, 1980. I never saw Diesel Fuel higher than Gasoline in my neck of the woods until 2005 during/after Katrina which was also about the time EPA required Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel. Since those days, in my neck of the woods diesel fuel has not been cheaper than RUG, not even seasonal. The Truck Stops tend to set the price here.......... next county over away from I-75, in the rural, diesel fuel and gasoline are cheaper.

 

[dieseldonato]

Paid $4.66 today filling the jetta up. Still took $50 to fill up, but 47mpg beat out both trucks and the expedition, and lasted almost 4 weeks. Last time diesel was cheaper then gas was sometime in 05 or 06 I think.. Haven't ever seen it cheaper since.

 

[AndyBees]

Yeah, I drove a lot on the job, especially the last 28 years of my career. So, I raked in some cash driving the diesel VWs.

 

[Ragdude]

Oddly diesel is now the same as rug, here in the Phx metro area $4.49/gal

 

[dhangejr]

It’s all a scam. Here in western wa reg is 3.99 diesel is 4.99 unless you drive to one of the native spots that offer it tax free so it’s about 4.30 for diesel

 

[dieseldonato]

We have a heck of a fuel tax here too.

 

[csstevej]

RUG $2.99 and diesel $3.96 in north New Jersey.

 

[dhangejr]

Saudi Arabia is cutting production by 1 million barrels on 1 May

 

[TornadoRed]

AAA says regular gasoline has gone up 20 cents/gallon in the last month, while diesel has gone down 13 cents/gallon. Normal seasonal factors.

Prices at this Holiday station are not typical, though I wish they were. Lots of stations are still charging $3.99-4.09 for ULSD.

 

[Steve Addy]

Our diesel declined to about $3.50 but that was short lived, as cheap gas prices surged back to $3.40 and now $3.50+, diesel has again moved back to $3.60-$4 depending on station.

This is even with SPR release over the last two weeks.

 

[740GLE]

Still at 4.69 at the local pump has been since it came off of $5-$6 late summer, RUG is at 3.29, HHO is down to 3.59.

I'd love to see D2 under $4 but i'd have to travel quite a while.

 

[hskrdu]

I paid $3.34 in Texas two weeks ago, and $3.79 last week in Maryland. Gas was a penny higher at the station I used in Texas, north of Fort Worth. The spread is higher in Maryland, lately around .35 cents. IMO, the better comparison is as a percentage, where (for example) at a nearby Sam's club regular gas is $3.40, and D2 is $3.75, so about 10% higher for D2. If my TDI averages, say, 47 mpg in mixed use, and an alternate car in question (GTI) averages 26 mpg, diesel would also have to be nearly double the price of gasoline (about $6.15 a gallon) to be at a "comparable" price for considerations of fuel costs.*

Of course, the GTI might do better with a light foot (and your comparison car might be more efficient, or your TDI less efficient), but my imagined GTI (along with other comparison cars) would likely be getting higher octane, so the regular gas vs D2 price comparison isn't accurate. The same Sam's Club currently has premium gas at $3.84, and D2 at $3.75, so with premium gasoline 3% more costly in a car that gets only about 55% of the fuel mileage of the TDI, the numbers change significantly. I think this is a better way to frame pricing and price comparisons.

For fun:

TDI at 47mpg, 15,000mi per year, fuel cost average $4/gal = 319.15 gal used. Fuel cost for that year = $1,277.
GTI at 26 mpg, 15,000mi per year, fuel cost average $3.50/gal = 576.92 gal used. Fuel cost for that year = $2,019.
GTI using premium fuel, 15,000mi per year, fuel cost average $4.00?/gal = $2,308.

Using national average prices for 2023 ($4.01 regular gas, $4.56 D2, depending on source):

TDI at 47mpg, 15,000mi per year, fuel cost average $4.56 gal = 319.15 gal used. Fuel cost for that year = $1,455.
GTI at 26 mpg, 15,000mi per year, fuel cost average $4.01/gal = 576.92 gal used. Fuel cost for that year = $2,313.
GTI using premium fuel, 15,000mi per year, fuel cost average $4.50?/gal = $2,596.

*Obviously pricing will differ and fluctuate. Check my math.

 

[Steve Addy]

Diesel in Des Moines still over cheap gasoline prices by about 30 cents. Diesel in town $3.90 but that's under 8 cents a mile with the TDI (at 50mpg) and you'd be hard pressed to find gas power to match that.

Suburb north of Des Moines always seems to be a bit cheaper...running at $3.57 / gallon...probably a little battle right now.

Steve

 

[Johhny04]

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-slowing-down-just-003529065.html

Prices might be coming down but along with it the economy............which isn't good.

 

[740GLE]

Well if there is less tourists pounding down the highways, Thursday thru Sunday I'll be happy.

 

[Golf Wang]

Yeah I saw news like this a week or two ago and prices have only continued to fall where I am. I got diesel for $4.25 in New Jersey yesterday. I hate to say it, but this is probably the trough. I don’t imagine it getting much cheaper, and if it does it won’t stay that low for long

this aged… surprisingly well. I’m now paying under $4 a gallon for diesel in NJ and around 4.25 in PA

 

[TornadoRed]

Diesel in Des Moines still over cheap gasoline prices by about 30 cents. Diesel in town $3.90 but that's under 8 cents a mile with the TDI (at 50mpg) and you'd be hard pressed to find gas power to match that.

Suburb north of Des Moines always seems to be a bit cheaper...running at $3.57 / gallon...probably a little battle right now.

Prices in Ankeny -- the 1st and 2nd exits north of I-80 along I-35 -- are always the best in central Iowa. Lots of competition from Kwik Star, Fleet Farm, Sam's Club, Casey's, and Murphy USA. All currently in the range of $3.49-$3.69 while $3.79 is common just a few miles away.

 

[Steve Addy]

Prices in Ankeny -- the 1st and 2nd exits north of I-80 along I-35 -- are always the best in central Iowa. Lots of competition from Kwik Star, Fleet Farm, Sam's Club, Casey's, and Murphy USA. All currently in the range of $3.49-$3.69 while $3.79 is common just a few miles away.

It's rare to find better pricing than Ankeny.

When I drove to fetch the B6 wagon out in Ohio I took 50 gallons of fuel in 5 gallon jugs on the truck with me because price in Ankeny was down around $3.55 and everything east was $4+ or higher. Quad Cities was $4.25 and it was that high or higher all the way out. Cut a big chunk off the fuel bill hauling it all with me.

Next best stop south past Des Moines is usually Eagleville MO.

Steve