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Diesel autos can be clean option in U.S., report says
Diesel and hybrid vehicles are both known for their fuel efficiency, but diesels are viewed as dirty because of exhaust pollutants, while gasoline-electric hybrids are considered a green product.
Consequently, with U.S. regulations reducing vehicles’ permitted exhaust pollution, there is a question about whether hybrids will supersede diesels in the U.S. market. Ricardo plc and UBS Ltd. don’t think they will.
Ricardo supplies technology and consulting services to the world’s auto industries. UBS is a global financial company. The two businesses studied diesel vehicles and wrote a joint report predicting those autos will remain viable in the U.S. through 2012 even as the country continues to tighten its emissions standards.
UBS and Ricardo presented their report in a May 25 conference call. “Is diesel set to boom in the US?” was written by UBS analysts Rob Hinchliffe, Max Warburton and Tatsuo Yoshida and by three Ricardo representatives: Adam Allsopp, strategic consultant; Neville Jackson, technology director; and Steve Parker, head of strategic consulting.
The following information comes from that report and from the conference call, during which Ricardo’s Jackson was the main presenter.
According to UBS and Ricardo, sales of diesel passenger vehicles (cars and trucks) will continue to increase and will continue to outsell hybrid passenger vehicles. U.S. auto sales in 2006 consisted of 545,000 diesel units and 255,000 hybrid units. UBS and Ricardo predicted that 1.5 million diesel autos and 1.2 million hybrid ones will be sold in 2012.
Diesel vehicles will remain viable because “clean diesel” technology can meet stringent U.S. emissions standards. Diesel power trains are more fuel efficient than hybrid power trains on open roads, such as freeways, though hybrids are more fuel efficient in congested city driving, according to UBS and Ricardo. Also, UBS and Ricardo data indicated that diesels appear to have a cost advantage over hybrids, especially with larger vehicles.
U.S. regulations are aggressive about reducing pollutants from emissions and are becoming more aggressive, so diesel vehicles in the U.S. are starting to run into problems with their emitting of pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides (NOx).
“Tailpipe emissions (particulates and NOx) remain diesel’s great weakness,” wrote Jackson and his co-authors in their report. However, they added that they believe diesel technology can meet the regulations, but doing so means a large diesel engine could cost about $4,000 more than a large gasoline one.
However, reducing emissions shouldn’t eliminate diesels’ benefits. “Careful work must be done to ensure diesels can be ‘cleaned up’ without giving up their mpg advantage over gasoline,” the report stated. It also noted that the reduction would decrease, but not eliminate, diesel autos’ cost advantage over hybrid ones.
Jackson and his co-authors wrote that the cost difference between hybrid power trains and diesel ones may decrease as more hybrids are being produced and because diesels require more equipment to treat their exhausts’ pollutants content. However, the authors wrote that they didn’t expect the difference to disappear even at large-volume production due to hybrids’ additional, complex equipment, such as batteries and electric motors.
In his presentation, Jackson contrasted that equipment situation with diesel’s. “The diesel engine is not really that much different than the gasoline engine,” he said.
The authors also showed the cost difference through comparison, though they wrote that comparing gasoline, diesel and hybrid engines and power trains is difficult due to differences in size and technical complexity. Nonetheless, they estimated that a U.S. emissions-compliant gasoline engine with a c4.0 liter V8 power train costs about $2,000; a compliant diesel with an exhaust-treatment system costs $3,000 to $4,000 more; and a full-hybrid engine and power train, like in the Lexus LX400h, costs $7,000 to $8,000 more. Thus, a U.S.-compliant diesel engine in a crossover vehicle or sport utility vehicle could cost $3,000 to $5,000 less than a full hybrid vehicle.
Jackson and his co-authors added in their report that the cost difference would be smaller for smaller autos and showed it by comparing the cost of a diesel version of a passenger car in the size range of a Toyota Camry to the cost of a full-hybrid version. The diesel version would cost about $2,000 to $3,000 less than the full hybrid.
In his conference call presentation, Jackson said diesel technology is a lower cost route to higher fuel efficiency than hybrid technology. However, he didn’t see demand for diesel vehicles eliminating demand for hybrids. “Our view is that hybrid and diesel will both thrive in the U.S. market.”
--CUTTING TOOL ENGINEERING, August 2007
Diesel and hybrid vehicles are both known for their fuel efficiency, but diesels are viewed as dirty because of exhaust pollutants, while gasoline-electric hybrids are considered a green product.
Consequently, with U.S. regulations reducing vehicles’ permitted exhaust pollution, there is a question about whether hybrids will supersede diesels in the U.S. market. Ricardo plc and UBS Ltd. don’t think they will.
Ricardo supplies technology and consulting services to the world’s auto industries. UBS is a global financial company. The two businesses studied diesel vehicles and wrote a joint report predicting those autos will remain viable in the U.S. through 2012 even as the country continues to tighten its emissions standards.
UBS and Ricardo presented their report in a May 25 conference call. “Is diesel set to boom in the US?” was written by UBS analysts Rob Hinchliffe, Max Warburton and Tatsuo Yoshida and by three Ricardo representatives: Adam Allsopp, strategic consultant; Neville Jackson, technology director; and Steve Parker, head of strategic consulting.
The following information comes from that report and from the conference call, during which Ricardo’s Jackson was the main presenter.
According to UBS and Ricardo, sales of diesel passenger vehicles (cars and trucks) will continue to increase and will continue to outsell hybrid passenger vehicles. U.S. auto sales in 2006 consisted of 545,000 diesel units and 255,000 hybrid units. UBS and Ricardo predicted that 1.5 million diesel autos and 1.2 million hybrid ones will be sold in 2012.
Diesel vehicles will remain viable because “clean diesel” technology can meet stringent U.S. emissions standards. Diesel power trains are more fuel efficient than hybrid power trains on open roads, such as freeways, though hybrids are more fuel efficient in congested city driving, according to UBS and Ricardo. Also, UBS and Ricardo data indicated that diesels appear to have a cost advantage over hybrids, especially with larger vehicles.
U.S. regulations are aggressive about reducing pollutants from emissions and are becoming more aggressive, so diesel vehicles in the U.S. are starting to run into problems with their emitting of pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides (NOx).
“Tailpipe emissions (particulates and NOx) remain diesel’s great weakness,” wrote Jackson and his co-authors in their report. However, they added that they believe diesel technology can meet the regulations, but doing so means a large diesel engine could cost about $4,000 more than a large gasoline one.
However, reducing emissions shouldn’t eliminate diesels’ benefits. “Careful work must be done to ensure diesels can be ‘cleaned up’ without giving up their mpg advantage over gasoline,” the report stated. It also noted that the reduction would decrease, but not eliminate, diesel autos’ cost advantage over hybrid ones.
Jackson and his co-authors wrote that the cost difference between hybrid power trains and diesel ones may decrease as more hybrids are being produced and because diesels require more equipment to treat their exhausts’ pollutants content. However, the authors wrote that they didn’t expect the difference to disappear even at large-volume production due to hybrids’ additional, complex equipment, such as batteries and electric motors.
In his presentation, Jackson contrasted that equipment situation with diesel’s. “The diesel engine is not really that much different than the gasoline engine,” he said.
The authors also showed the cost difference through comparison, though they wrote that comparing gasoline, diesel and hybrid engines and power trains is difficult due to differences in size and technical complexity. Nonetheless, they estimated that a U.S. emissions-compliant gasoline engine with a c4.0 liter V8 power train costs about $2,000; a compliant diesel with an exhaust-treatment system costs $3,000 to $4,000 more; and a full-hybrid engine and power train, like in the Lexus LX400h, costs $7,000 to $8,000 more. Thus, a U.S.-compliant diesel engine in a crossover vehicle or sport utility vehicle could cost $3,000 to $5,000 less than a full hybrid vehicle.
Jackson and his co-authors added in their report that the cost difference would be smaller for smaller autos and showed it by comparing the cost of a diesel version of a passenger car in the size range of a Toyota Camry to the cost of a full-hybrid version. The diesel version would cost about $2,000 to $3,000 less than the full hybrid.
In his conference call presentation, Jackson said diesel technology is a lower cost route to higher fuel efficiency than hybrid technology. However, he didn’t see demand for diesel vehicles eliminating demand for hybrids. “Our view is that hybrid and diesel will both thrive in the U.S. market.”
--CUTTING TOOL ENGINEERING, August 2007