I think VW is very very confident you won't hit 162k on stock emissions hardware and phase 1 or 2A fix.
It has nothing to do with emissions equipment NOT making it to 162k. The replacement of the DPF and other parts was strictly due to EPA emissions.
As emissions components rack up miles the amount of NOx and other emissions goes up slightly. The EPA mandated that emissions needed to be kept within the legal federal range. THIS is what mandated the DPF and other parts be replaced at 70k miles. Emissions would be non-compliant when the vehicle passes 70k miles.
It has nothing to do with whether the DPF stops functioning or is full of ash at 70k miles. That is why I see not doing phase 2b until either a CEL is on or the the in service warranty is nearing its end.
Compare a 2015 with only phase 1 done to a 2014 where there is a single phase. You could buy a 2014 that is fixed at 30k miles. It will have warranty for 10 years or 120k miles for original in service date. On a 2014 that was sold in 2013 that means the warranty is up in 2023. Unless you can put 90k miles on the car in three years you will hit the end of line for in-service warranty coverage in 2023. Assuming a dealer just did the warranty repair in 2020 then you would have an additional 4 years or 48,000 miles from the date of the repair.
In the above scenario the 48,000 miles is meaningless since the the in service warranty mileage is longer. The four years gets you to 2024 (one more year), but this means you can only average 12k miles per year before the mileage portion runs out.
On a 2015 MY you get 11 years or 162k miles from in service. This pushes you to 2025 minimum. This also give you 26k miles per year for those five years. Say this is normal for you. Then in 2025 you go in for phase 2b (VW has to comply with the court order. There is no expiration date). The warranty is then extended to 2030 or an additional 60k miles.
Potentially this means a 2014 MY runs out of coverage somewhere around 2024. A 2015 potentially has coverage until 2030 (six additional years vs the 2014) or up to 212k miles.
If you were really lucky and got one of those NEW stop sale vehicles that was sold in 2017 as new then you could have warranty until 2032.
"Emissions" warranty covers a LOT more than most people think: Essentially everything from the high pressure fuel pump to past the DPF. It also includes the engine long block. So essentially ALL of the diesel engine parts that are expensive and not wear parts.
A 2014 should be worth thousands less than a 2015 with only phase one. For the 2009-2011 model year vehicles it is vitally important to ONLY buy them if the emissions warranty was RECENTLY completed. Anything fixed in 2017-2018 time frame has half the warranty gone already. The ONLY exception would be if the car was fixed by a VW dealer and then sat for two years. If a VW dealer sells a "Fixed" car then the warranty starts when the first purchaser post fix buys the car. This ONLY applies if a VW DEALER sells the car. If the emissions warranty is pretty much gone on a 2009-2012 TDI then it should be priced similar to a used car lot on good condition or maybe closer to private party value.
If you find a 2011 with a fix done in the last month or two that could be a really good deal that would include four years/48k miles of warranty. I would still argue that a 2015 with only phase one is a better long term value. If it is a CPO as well then it is an even better value as long as the dealer isn't assigning thousands of $$ of value to CPO. It has about $750-800 of value and no more.
