2/3rds EVs by 2032... Realistic? (and time to horde diesels?)

gearheadgrrrl

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Isn't it all just a question of economics? The 'carbon negative' fuel is negative because it's sequestering carbon? How much is it per gallon?

It's a question of the economics of the system. So 10kW of PV + a BEV + carbon sequestration. 10kW provides ~18MWh/yr to power everything and sequester carbon. That's going to be a lot cheaper and a lot more carbon negative than any biofuel scheme. 1MWh can remove 4 tons of CO2 from the air.
$150 for E85 capability for my new van has cut that vehicles GHG production in half for the life of the vehicle, only comparable electric option is an electric F150 with a topper for $60,000+ and it would reduce GHG less... Sorry, your numbers don't make sense!
 

nwdiver

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$150 for E85 capability for my new van has cut that vehicles GHG production in half for the life of the vehicle, only comparable electric option is an electric F150 with a topper for $60,000+ and it would reduce GHG less... Sorry, your numbers don't make sense!
Wind farm is selling to you for ~$0.01/kWh? That's a sweet deal. For you solar 100% doesn't make any sense but a BEV sure would :)

Let's compare options that actually exist at scale. Some market segments like Vans haven't seen enough BEV action yet.

What's the most comparable vehicle to a Model 3? Dealers choice. You can get a Model 3 for ~$33k. Over 10 years you'd drive ~120,000 miles? With the incredible deal you're getting from your local wind farm the energy to drive 120,000 miles would cost (120,000miles)(3.5miles/kWh) = 34,286kWh => $0.01/kWh => $342.86 . What's the most comparable new ICE? How much would it cost to drive 120,000 miles on E85?
 

turbobrick240

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Burning E85 instead of gasoline doesn't reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It's just a shell game moving the carbon emissions around.
 

nwdiver

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As long as you people call it "fossil fuel", it's "part of the carbon cycle".
'Alright, imagine there's a big circle called the "carbon cycle." This circle is like a game where carbon moves around and changes forms. Carbon is a special element that can be found in lots of things, like plants, animals, and even the air we breathe.

Now, oil is a very thick, sticky liquid that comes from deep underground. It's like a special kind of juice that comes from the Earth. But here's the interesting part: oil is actually really old plants and tiny animals that lived a long, long time ago. They got buried underground and over millions of years, they turned into oil.

So, when we take oil out of the ground and burn it to make energy, something important happens. The carbon in the oil, which was trapped deep underground for a really long time, gets released into the air all at once. This is different from the normal carbon cycle, where carbon moves around slowly between plants, animals, and the air.

When we release too much carbon into the air from burning oil and other fossil fuels, it can cause problems for our planet. It's like adding too much of something to a recipe and making it taste funny. This extra carbon can make the Earth warmer, which we call "climate change." That's why we need to be careful and find other ways to make energy that don't release so much carbon into the air.'
- Chat GBT
 

gearheadgrrrl

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Wind farm is selling to you for ~$0.01/kWh? That's a sweet deal. For you solar 100% doesn't make any sense but a BEV sure would :)

Let's compare options that actually exist at scale. Some market segments like Vans haven't seen enough BEV action yet.

What's the most comparable vehicle to a Model 3? Dealers choice. You can get a Model 3 for ~$33k. Over 10 years you'd drive ~120,000 miles? With the incredible deal you're getting from your local wind farm the energy to drive 120,000 miles would cost (120,000miles)(3.5miles/kWh) = 34,286kWh => $0.01/kWh => $342.86 . What's the most comparable new ICE? How much would it cost to drive 120,000 miles on E85?
Problem is, EV won't do the job- Not enough charging points for a start as well as severe weather. Teslas are nonstarters, nearest dealer is almost 200 miles away so a service costs a minimum of $500. The only halfway viable EV out here is a Bolt, and only if I could buy it for $10k or less new. Again, EVs aren't ready for "prime time"...
 

wxman

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Forests burn. It's part of being a forest. The solution is more controlled burns. Whether they burn or rot the GHGs get returned to the atmosphere. Unlike oil they're part of the carbon cycle.
Controlled (prescribed) burns can't be safely completed if the fuel loadings are too high, thus substantial thinning is required before those burns can be done without the risk of the burn getting out of control. Up to 90% of the biomass needs to be removed before a prescribed burn can be safely done in some cases.

Whether they burn or rot the GHGs get returned to the atmosphere. Unlike oil they're part of the carbon cycle.
If biofuels are produced from those forest wastes, the carbon is recycled but useful work can be produced from the biofuels, unlike just letting the wildfires burn out of control. Criteria pollutants are also very well controlled in the biofuels scenario.

The 'carbon negative' fuel is negative because it's sequestering carbon? How much is it per gallon?
Yes, it's a process to sequestering carbon. Not sure of the cost of this fuel, but EPA did a rigorous study in its RFS documents that would produce BBD without CCS) at about $3.50/gallon in today's dollars.
 

turbobrick240

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gulfcoastguy

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There are several videos on ewetube where goats are used to eat firebreaks . They eat down all shrubbery, completely destroying seeds. Plus surplus goats get turned into stew or dog food.
 

gearheadgrrrl

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Junk "Science"- That study has been widely criticized because they tried to estimate acreage used for growing corn from aerial photos, an inexact science at best. Building their scientific "house of cards" on that unstable foundation, they then made a bunch of questionable assumptions to support their anti-ethanol conclusion. Interesting to see supposed environmental groups that funded this "study" supporting big oil...
 

turbobrick240

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With the advances in quantum computing it will just be couple of years before scientists can do MUCH more accurate modeling. This will reveal the extent of the US corn ethanol industry fugazi beyond any doubt.
 

gearheadgrrrl

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With the advances in quantum computing it will just be couple of years before scientists can do MUCH more accurate modeling. This will reveal the extent of the US corn ethanol industry fugazi beyond any doubt.
Problem is not lack of computing power, the problem is unreliable data. Garbage In= Garbage Out!
 

rwthomas1

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An interesting thread. I would recommend that y'all read Vaclav Smils book, How the World Really Works. Its largely apolitical, filled with well researched information. The conclusion you will come to is we are doing it all wrong, and the solution isnt easy, or short term, meaning it will likely never be implemented.
 

pkhoury

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There are several videos on ewetube where goats are used to eat firebreaks . They eat down all shrubbery, completely destroying seeds. Plus surplus goats get turned into stew or dog food.
Or delicious burgers. I had some unwanted dairy goat bucks a few years ago turned into hamburger. Delicious!
 

jmodge

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Or delicious burgers. I had some unwanted dairy goat bucks a few years ago turned into hamburger. Delicious!
Please tell me you didn’t cook them on a solar powered electric stovetop
 

pkhoury

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Well, indirectly, my stovetop might be solar powered - whatever's feeding into the Texas grid. I know I've taken some on a past trip out west, and those were cooked on a Coleman stove running zero emissions 87 octane gasoline.
 

pkhoury

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When we release too much carbon into the air from burning oil and other fossil fuels, it can cause problems for our planet. It's like adding too much of something to a recipe and making it taste funny. This extra carbon can make the Earth warmer, which we call "climate change." That's why we need to be careful and find other ways to make energy that don't release so much carbon into the air.' - Chat GBT
I would post the ChatGPT response to this, but it has so much profanity, it would make a sailor blush.
 

pkhoury

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Enjoying a nice steak for dinner tonight, cooked on a charcoal grill, and a ride into town in the big block F250 for ice cream afterwards....in nwdriver's honor.
In Mr. Dizon's honor, I got rid of my WMO along with the rest of my trash, in four burn barrels last night. That stuff burns HOT!
 

jmodge

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jmodge

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Need a couple BIG fans set up around that fire and you’ll have one heck of a “fire tornado”
No electricity, but we do have several water bottles with combustible liquid placed within the teepee. Set off with either a Roman candle or a wick along the ground made of combustible liquid. Full ignition is promptly obtained 🔥
 

turbobrick240

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Ah, nothing like a nice juicy steak grilled over a garbage and gasoline fire! ;)
 

pkhoury

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In Michigan I guess we’re lucky, no need for burn barrels. We just pile our crap up and then when beer goes on sale... spring cleaning!

We do the same here in Texas, but it's easier to pour WMO in a 55 gallon drum and burn your trash in there. The best is when I have things like car upholstery or plastic crap laying around. Seeing flames that turn purple, blue, green, an off color of orange.
 

pkhoury

That guy with the goats
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Need a couple BIG fans set up around that fire and you’ll have one heck of a “fire tornado”
A friend of mine in northern Alabama has a harbor freight blower, attached to some piping to his fire pit. I drill holes in all my barrels for air to get in, but nothing like his forced induction burn pit. He's melted all kinds of crazy s#it in his pit.

Ah, nothing like a nice juicy steak grilled over a garbage and gasoline fire! ;)
Last thing that got grilled in there were some mice I caught trying to eat vintage computer documentation. I would also say grilled wasps, but I hit those directly with the map gas torch.
 
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