2/3rds EVs by 2032... Realistic? (and time to horde diesels?)

turbobrick240

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Ever heard of an "M-TDI"? Under the electronics of an ALH or earlier TDI lies a mechanical fuel pump with it's roots in the first VW diesels of the 70s!
Have fun trying to convert your car to M-TDI with nukes going off overhead. Why bother investing in a solar array, when you could build a Faraday cage garage instead. Prepper priorities.
 

gearheadgrrrl

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Have fun trying to convert your car to M-TDI with nukes going off overhead. Why bother investing in a solar array, when you could build a Faraday cage garage instead. Prepper priorities.
Actually I'm over a hundred miles away from any likely targets, you think I should put a steel door on my concrete garage to complete the cage?
 

nwdiver

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when we are hardly a problem).
Why not stick with that? Why do y'all feel the need to peddle so much disinformation?

V Like this... V

What the EV cultists fail to note is that battery material shortages, limited charging capacity, limited renewable generating capacity, and the decades needed to add grid capacity will limit EV growth for the next few decades.
  • Nickel and Cobalt are the only substantive material bottlenecks both of which have been solved, LiFe are becoming more common and don't use Ni or Co. We'll be shifting to Na-Ion batteries long before lithium becomes an issue.
  • Renewables increased from 824TWh in 2020 to 875TWh in 2021. Enough to support an additional ~13M EVs while only ~750k were sold in the US. So... no... renewable generation additions are outpacing EVs by a significant margin.
  • The grid already has sufficient off-peak capacity even if all vehicles were electric. The US produces ~4,000TWh/yr with an average CF of 50%. Vehicle miles in the US is ~3.3T/yr. ~1.2TWh/yr of additional generation would be sufficient to cover that. That would only increase CF to ~70%.
And the concept that using biofuels are the solution is simply absurd. We have limited feedstock and it's all being used. The only solution is to burn less diesel. That was a motivation for me to upgrade from the Jetta. I was using B100 but realized I was buying everything from the guy that made it. So every gallon I bought just meant he would burn another gallon of diesel. It was accomplishing nothing. Same with how the EU started buying oil from India instead of from Russia. Russia is still selling the same volume of oil.... they're just selling it to India now instead...
 
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turbodieseldyke

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Have fun trying to convert your car to M-TDI with nukes going off overhead. Why bother investing in a solar array, when you could build a Faraday cage garage instead. Prepper priorities.
If you're the only guy in town with a running car, it's going to get stolen. You can keep a food stash secret, but the first time you use your car, everyone knows.
 

wxman

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Soybeans and Oilseed? Is there a glut of soybeans and oilseed? Do you want another spike in food prices? The dumbest thing we can do is to use farmland to make fuel.
It says in the letter:

...The additional biodiesel and renewable diesel gallons produced in the first four months of this year have filled three times over the increase in BBD volumes that EPA proposed for the entire year....

BBD = biomass-based diesel

Seed oil is a very small part of the potential feedstock for BBD.

There's enough WASTE organic material to produce as much as 55B gallons/year of BBD. The typical jet fuel + diesel fuel usage is ~85B gallons/year.
 
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nwdiver

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It says in the letter:

...The additional biodiesel and renewable diesel gallons produced in the first four months of this year have filled three times over the increase in BBD volumes that EPA proposed for the entire year....

BBD = biomass-based diesel
.... yeah.... they're exceeding the EPA quota and asking for more subsidies to convert more food into fuel. It's not like the food is going to waste... it's being used as food. Hence my point that 'all the feed stock is being used'. Food should be used as food not fuel.

~40% of the corn we grow is already used as fuel. We're well past the point of insanity. That's ~36M acres of prime farmland to produce ~5% of the liquid fuel we consume. ~30M acres of solar would cover 100% of ALL energy needs.
 
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wxman

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.... yeah.... they're exceeding the EPA quota and asking for more subsidies to convert more food into fuel. It's not like the food is going to waste... it's being used as food. Hence my point that 'all the feed stock is being used'. Food should be used as food not fuel.
I agree, but there's a LOT of waste material that COULD be used for BBD feedstock.
 

nwdiver

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I agree, but there's a LOT of waste material that COULD be used for BBD feedstock.
What waste? Where? The letter isn't asking for waste to be converted. They're asking to get paid to turn more soybeans and Oilseed into fuel instead of selling it as food. 41 lbs of soybeans is better as 41 lbs of soybeans not 1 gallon of diesel.
 

wxman

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There's a HUGE supply of waste forest material that's not only potentially available, there's a desperate need for a market for it.

The main issue with massive wildfires is the massive fuel loadings in many forest lands in the U.S. If these lands were better managed and excess vegetation used for feedstock for BBD, we could solve two issues with one solution - reduce massive wildfires and provide a feedstock for renewable diesel.

 

gearheadgrrrl

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In my state of Minnesota about 85% of all crops harvested are used for... Animal feed mostly, and some biofuel production. There isn't enough biomass out there to replace all petroleum fuel use, but biofuels can take a big chunk out of that source of GHG. Same with EVs- Nowhere near enough materials and power to replace petroleum fuels, but they can take a big bite out of GHG production too. We need to dramatically reduce GHG production, and we need both biofuels, EVs, and more efficient vehicles like 50 MPG TDIs to accomplish that goal. So EV cultists, quit wasting your time promoting the technology you worship when it can't do the whole job!
 

gearheadgrrrl

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What waste? Where? The letter isn't asking for waste to be converted. They're asking to get paid to turn more soybeans and Oilseed into fuel instead of selling it as food. 41 lbs of soybeans is better as 41 lbs of soybeans not 1 gallon of diesel.
There are all kinds of applications out here in rural America that EVs won't be able to do for decades, but biofuels are ready to go to work reducing GHGs now. Sorry, the planet is on fire, and we can't wait for your EV cultist's EV tractor fantasies!
 

gearheadgrrrl

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.... yeah.... they're exceeding the EPA quota and asking for more subsidies to convert more food into fuel. It's not like the food is going to waste... it's being used as food. Hence my point that 'all the feed stock is being used'. Food should be used as food not fuel.

~40% of the corn we grow is already used as fuel. We're well past the point of insanity. That's ~36M acres of prime farmland to produce ~5% of the liquid fuel we consume. ~30M acres of solar would cover 100% of ALL energy needs.
So you want us to let almost half our fields go fallow and drive the farmers bankrupt and produce even more GHGs running our vehicles and tractors on oil instead of biofuels... And you call yourself an environmentalist?
 

TomJD

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Is most the web traffic on this site related to EV banter nowadays? I bet we can find a way to quantify that.
 

nwdiver

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can't do the whole job!
How precisely would wind, solar and storage be unable to 'do the whole job'?

The progression isn't complicated. Renewables are dirt cheap. Now ~$1/w and there's virtually no resource bottlenecks. Solar is Sand and Aluminum. Literally 2 of the most common materials on Earth. So you essentially 'flood the field'. The first challenge is curtailment. This already occurs where RE supply > demand. So... you need to create demand at 2am or noon when RE supply > demand. Batteries. Why not kill two birds and use these batteries for transportation? That's the synergistic relationship between EVs and RE. Once you've demand shifted as much as possible add grid storage. As surplus grows more you produce Hydrogen. H2 then fills all the remaining niches.

So how exactly can't this 'do the whole job'?

So you want us to let almost half our fields go fallow and drive the farmers bankrupt and produce even more GHGs running our vehicles and tractors on oil instead of biofuels... And you call yourself an environmentalist?
Farming more sustainably using cover crops for a fews seasons would REDUCE GHGs since it would require less fertilizer. And there's something to be said for 're-wilding' some areas. People complain about solar farms taking farmland but 1 acre of solar is ~40x more productive than an acre of corn if it's just being used for fuel.
 
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gearheadgrrrl

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There's a HUGE supply of waste forest material that's not only potentially available, there's a desperate need for a market for it.

The main issue with massive wildfires is the massive fuel loadings in many forest lands in the U.S. If these lands were better managed and excess vegetation used for feedstock for BBD, we could solve two issues with one solution - reduce massive wildfires and provide a feedstock for renewable diesel.

Or Saint Paul district energy, which has been powering, heating, and cooling downtown Saint Paul with scrap wood for over four decades! https://www.districtenergy.com/about/history/
 

nwdiver

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Or Saint Paul district energy, which has been powering, heating, and cooling downtown Saint Paul with scrap wood for over four decades! https://www.districtenergy.com/about/history/
Sure. Cheap and easy to burn wood to boil water. Converting it into diesel is another matter entirely. And that's another competitor for feedstock. Old coal plants are buying up every lb of biomass they can get their hands on to burn.

Like I said.... limited supply and it's ~all being used. The UK is importing it from Canada....
 

wxman

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Sure. Cheap and easy to burn wood to boil water. Converting it into diesel is another matter entirely. And that's another competitor for feedstock. Old coal plants are buying up every lb of biomass they can get their hands on to burn.

Like I said.... limited supply and it's ~all being used. The UK is importing it from Canada....
Then why is <1% of electricity generated in the U.S. from biomass (0.3% according to GREET model)?
 

wxman

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Why aren't the folks who are concerned about cAGW at least as enthusiastic about biofuels as they are about BEV technology?

BBD has the potential to be carbon negative if properly configured.


Synthetic fuels ("efuels") can also be carbon negative

 

nwdiver

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Then why is <1% of electricity generated in the U.S. from biomass (0.3% according to GREET model)?
Um... probably a lack of feedstock. Just because there are piles of debris available in the forests doesn't mean it's logistically or economically feasible to go retrieve it.

Why aren't the folks who are concerned about cAGW at least as enthusiastic about biofuels as they are about BEV technology?
Cost and feedstock. It's pretty easy to achieve < $0.01/mile with an EV powered from solar or wind. Just the cost of converting any feedstock even if that feed stock is free is going to be >2x that. Solar and Wind are an effectively infinite 'feedstock'. We'll run out of ways to use them before we run out of solar or wind.
 
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wxman

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Um... probably a lack of feedstock. Just because there are piles of debris available in the forests doesn't mean it's logistically or economically feasible to go retrieve it.
So we're just going to proceed as usual and let those wildfires burn uncontrolled releasing not only massive amount of GHGs but criteria pollutants like PM2.5, which is being felt in much of the Eastern U.S. now?
 

gearheadgrrrl

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How precisely would wind, solar and storage be unable to 'do the whole job'?

The progression isn't complicated. Renewables are dirt cheap. Now ~$1/w and there's virtually no resource bottlenecks. Solar is Sand and Aluminum. Literally 2 of the most common materials on Earth. So you essentially 'flood the field'. The first challenge is curtailment. This already occurs where RE supply > demand. So... you need to create demand at 2am or noon when RE supply > demand. Batteries. Why not kill two birds and use these batteries for transportation? That's the synergistic relationship between EVs and RE. Once you've demand shifted as much as possible add grid storage. As surplus grows more you produce Hydrogen. H2 then fills all the remaining niches.

So how exactly can't this 'do the whole job'?



Farming more sustainably using cover crops for a fews seasons would REDUCE GHGs since it would require less fertilizer. And there's something to be said for 're-wilding' some areas. People complain about solar farms taking farmland but 1 acre of solar is ~40x more productive than an acre of corn if it's just being used for fuel.
If you knew what you were talking about you'd be promoting wind instead of solar which only survives in the market as a visual virtue signal and because of mandates and heavy subsidies. Solar has a miserable 20% availability and after you add battery storage to a try to fix that problem the costs go through the roof because the whole bad investment has a life of only 10-20 years and the costs make diesel generators look tempting. Car batteries as storage? No way is the utility going to drain my batteries overnight so I can't make a medical appointment! As for that acre of solar being more productive than corn, that only happens if the solar comes with huge subsidies.

As for EVs inability to do the work, you priced out the megawatt batteries, storage, and solar you'd need to replace a big diesel farm tractor?
 

gearheadgrrrl

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Sure. Cheap and easy to burn wood to boil water. Converting it into diesel is another matter entirely. And that's another competitor for feedstock. Old coal plants are buying up every lb of biomass they can get their hands on to burn.

Like I said.... limited supply and it's ~all being used. The UK is importing it from Canada....
You want wood biomass, come and get it!

I sit on a small town city council and we've got scrap wood coming out our ears thanks to last summers derecho and winter's ice storm. The owner of our burn site won't take any more, fortunately we've got several wood stove owners in town that are helping us clean up these mountains of down wood!
 

wxman

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Um... probably a lack of feedstock. Just because there are piles of debris available in the forests doesn't mean it's logistically or economically feasible to go retrieve it.



Cost and feedstock. It's pretty easy to achieve < $0.01/mile with an EV powered from solar or wind. Just the cost of converting any feedstock even if that feed stock is free is going to be >2x that. Solar and Wind are an effectively infinite 'feedstock'. We'll run out of ways to use them before we run out of solar or wind.
Are there ANY pathways in which BEVs can even be carbon neutral over its entire lifecycle, much less carbon negative? There aren't in GREET, even with 100% renewable electricity.

Is AGW a existential threat or isn't it?
 

nwdiver

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So we're just going to proceed as usual and let those wildfires burn uncontrolled releasing not only massive amount of GHGs but criteria pollutants like PM2.5, which is being felt in much of the Eastern U.S. now?
Forests burn. It's part of being a forest. The solution is more controlled burns. Whether they burn or rot the GHGs get returned to the atmosphere. Unlike oil they're part of the carbon cycle.


If you knew what you were talking about you'd be promoting wind instead of solar which only survives in the market as a visual virtue signal and because of mandates and heavy subsidies. Solar has a miserable 20% availability and after you add battery storage to a try to fix that problem the costs go through the roof because the whole bad investment has a life of only 10-20 years and the costs make diesel generators look tempting. Car batteries as storage? No way is the utility going to drain my batteries overnight so I can't make a medical appointment! As for that acre of solar being more productive than corn, that only happens if the solar comes with huge subsidies.

As for EVs inability to do the work, you priced out the megawatt batteries, storage, and solar you'd need to replace a big diesel farm tractor?
I promote both. Wind and Solar are great partners. Wind and solar peak at opposite times of day/year. Not sure how you got so corrupted with so much misinformation about solar. The warranty is 25 years. There are panels from 1980 that still work fine. Not much to go wrong. 40 years of life should be easy. You're paying ~$20k for >$80k worth of electricity over 40 years. No need for batteries anytime soon.

Call the UK. If it's not too expensive to ship they'll gladly take anything you can send that will burn relatively clean.

Drax: UK power station owner cuts down primary forests in Canada
 

nwdiver

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Are there ANY pathways in which BEVs can even be carbon neutral over its entire lifecycle, much less carbon negative? There aren't in GREET, even with 100% renewable electricity.

Is AGW a existential threat or isn't it?
Isn't it all just a question of economics? The 'carbon negative' fuel is negative because it's sequestering carbon? How much is it per gallon?

It's a question of the economics of the system. So 10kW of PV + a BEV + carbon sequestration. 10kW provides ~18MWh/yr to power everything and sequester carbon. That's going to be a lot cheaper and a lot more carbon negative than any biofuel scheme. 1MWh can remove 4 tons of CO2 from the air.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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I would love to use wind to supplement my solar, but zoning in my town and towns all around me prohibit towers for windmills.
 

nwdiver

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I would love to use wind to supplement my solar, but zoning in my town and towns all around me prohibit towers for windmills.
Wind doesn't scale down like solar does. Anything < 100kW isn't worth it. Only commercial scale wind is economically viable.
 

gearheadgrrrl

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Wind doesn't scale down like solar does. Anything < 100kW isn't worth it. Only commercial scale wind is economically viable.
Thanks for agreeing with my decision not to "invest" in solar- Nearby wind farm has contracted long term to produce at less than a penny per KW/hour, no way I can compete with that!
 
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