2/3rds EVs by 2032... Realistic? (and time to horde diesels?)

[nwdiver]

Then why is <1% of electricity generated in the U.S. from biomass (0.3% according to GREET model)?

Um... probably a lack of feedstock. Just because there are piles of debris available in the forests doesn't mean it's logistically or economically feasible to go retrieve it.

Why aren't the folks who are concerned about cAGW at least as enthusiastic about biofuels as they are about BEV technology?

Cost and feedstock. It's pretty easy to achieve < $0.01/mile with an EV powered from solar or wind. Just the cost of converting any feedstock even if that feed stock is free is going to be >2x that. Solar and Wind are an effectively infinite 'feedstock'. We'll run out of ways to use them before we run out of solar or wind.

 

[wxman]

Um... probably a lack of feedstock. Just because there are piles of debris available in the forests doesn't mean it's logistically or economically feasible to go retrieve it.

So we're just going to proceed as usual and let those wildfires burn uncontrolled releasing not only massive amount of GHGs but criteria pollutants like PM2.5, which is being felt in much of the Eastern U.S. now?

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

How precisely would wind, solar and storage be unable to 'do the whole job'?

The progression isn't complicated. Renewables are dirt cheap. Now ~$1/w and there's virtually no resource bottlenecks. Solar is Sand and Aluminum. Literally 2 of the most common materials on Earth. So you essentially 'flood the field'. The first challenge is curtailment. This already occurs where RE supply > demand. So... you need to create demand at 2am or noon when RE supply > demand. Batteries. Why not kill two birds and use these batteries for transportation? That's the synergistic relationship between EVs and RE. Once you've demand shifted as much as possible add grid storage. As surplus grows more you produce Hydrogen. H2 then fills all the remaining niches.

So how exactly can't this 'do the whole job'?



Farming more sustainably using cover crops for a fews seasons would REDUCE GHGs since it would require less fertilizer. And there's something to be said for 're-wilding' some areas. People complain about solar farms taking farmland but 1 acre of solar is ~40x more productive than an acre of corn if it's just being used for fuel.

If you knew what you were talking about you'd be promoting wind instead of solar which only survives in the market as a visual virtue signal and because of mandates and heavy subsidies. Solar has a miserable 20% availability and after you add battery storage to a try to fix that problem the costs go through the roof because the whole bad investment has a life of only 10-20 years and the costs make diesel generators look tempting. Car batteries as storage? No way is the utility going to drain my batteries overnight so I can't make a medical appointment! As for that acre of solar being more productive than corn, that only happens if the solar comes with huge subsidies.

As for EVs inability to do the work, you priced out the megawatt batteries, storage, and solar you'd need to replace a big diesel farm tractor?

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Sure. Cheap and easy to burn wood to boil water. Converting it into diesel is another matter entirely. And that's another competitor for feedstock. Old coal plants are buying up every lb of biomass they can get their hands on to burn.

Like I said.... limited supply and it's ~all being used. The UK is importing it from Canada....

You want wood biomass, come and get it!

I sit on a small town city council and we've got scrap wood coming out our ears thanks to last summers derecho and winter's ice storm. The owner of our burn site won't take any more, fortunately we've got several wood stove owners in town that are helping us clean up these mountains of down wood!

 

[wxman]

Um... probably a lack of feedstock. Just because there are piles of debris available in the forests doesn't mean it's logistically or economically feasible to go retrieve it.



Cost and feedstock. It's pretty easy to achieve < $0.01/mile with an EV powered from solar or wind. Just the cost of converting any feedstock even if that feed stock is free is going to be >2x that. Solar and Wind are an effectively infinite 'feedstock'. We'll run out of ways to use them before we run out of solar or wind.

Are there ANY pathways in which BEVs can even be carbon neutral over its entire lifecycle, much less carbon negative? There aren't in GREET, even with 100% renewable electricity.

Is AGW a existential threat or isn't it?

 

[nwdiver]

So we're just going to proceed as usual and let those wildfires burn uncontrolled releasing not only massive amount of GHGs but criteria pollutants like PM2.5, which is being felt in much of the Eastern U.S. now?

Forests burn. It's part of being a forest. The solution is more controlled burns. Whether they burn or rot the GHGs get returned to the atmosphere. Unlike oil they're part of the carbon cycle.

If you knew what you were talking about you'd be promoting wind instead of solar which only survives in the market as a visual virtue signal and because of mandates and heavy subsidies. Solar has a miserable 20% availability and after you add battery storage to a try to fix that problem the costs go through the roof because the whole bad investment has a life of only 10-20 years and the costs make diesel generators look tempting. Car batteries as storage? No way is the utility going to drain my batteries overnight so I can't make a medical appointment! As for that acre of solar being more productive than corn, that only happens if the solar comes with huge subsidies.

As for EVs inability to do the work, you priced out the megawatt batteries, storage, and solar you'd need to replace a big diesel farm tractor?

I promote both. Wind and Solar are great partners. Wind and solar peak at opposite times of day/year. Not sure how you got so corrupted with so much misinformation about solar. The warranty is 25 years. There are panels from 1980 that still work fine. Not much to go wrong. 40 years of life should be easy. You're paying ~$20k for >$80k worth of electricity over 40 years. No need for batteries anytime soon.

Call the UK. If it's not too expensive to ship they'll gladly take anything you can send that will burn relatively clean.

Drax: UK power station owner cuts down primary forests in Canada

 

[nwdiver]

Are there ANY pathways in which BEVs can even be carbon neutral over its entire lifecycle, much less carbon negative? There aren't in GREET, even with 100% renewable electricity.

Is AGW a existential threat or isn't it?

Isn't it all just a question of economics? The 'carbon negative' fuel is negative because it's sequestering carbon? How much is it per gallon?

It's a question of the economics of the system. So 10kW of PV + a BEV + carbon sequestration. 10kW provides ~18MWh/yr to power everything and sequester carbon. That's going to be a lot cheaper and a lot more carbon negative than any biofuel scheme. 1MWh can remove 4 tons of CO2 from the air.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

I would love to use wind to supplement my solar, but zoning in my town and towns all around me prohibit towers for windmills.

 

[nwdiver]

I would love to use wind to supplement my solar, but zoning in my town and towns all around me prohibit towers for windmills.

Wind doesn't scale down like solar does. Anything < 100kW isn't worth it. Only commercial scale wind is economically viable.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Wind doesn't scale down like solar does. Anything < 100kW isn't worth it. Only commercial scale wind is economically viable.

Thanks for agreeing with my decision not to "invest" in solar- Nearby wind farm has contracted long term to produce at less than a penny per KW/hour, no way I can compete with that!

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Isn't it all just a question of economics? The 'carbon negative' fuel is negative because it's sequestering carbon? How much is it per gallon?

It's a question of the economics of the system. So 10kW of PV + a BEV + carbon sequestration. 10kW provides ~18MWh/yr to power everything and sequester carbon. That's going to be a lot cheaper and a lot more carbon negative than any biofuel scheme. 1MWh can remove 4 tons of CO2 from the air.

$150 for E85 capability for my new van has cut that vehicles GHG production in half for the life of the vehicle, only comparable electric option is an electric F150 with a topper for $60,000+ and it would reduce GHG less... Sorry, your numbers don't make sense!

 

[nwdiver]

$150 for E85 capability for my new van has cut that vehicles GHG production in half for the life of the vehicle, only comparable electric option is an electric F150 with a topper for $60,000+ and it would reduce GHG less... Sorry, your numbers don't make sense!

Wind farm is selling to you for ~$0.01/kWh? That's a sweet deal. For you solar 100% doesn't make any sense but a BEV sure would

Let's compare options that actually exist at scale. Some market segments like Vans haven't seen enough BEV action yet.

What's the most comparable vehicle to a Model 3? Dealers choice. You can get a Model 3 for ~$33k. Over 10 years you'd drive ~120,000 miles? With the incredible deal you're getting from your local wind farm the energy to drive 120,000 miles would cost (120,000miles)(3.5miles/kWh) = 34,286kWh => $0.01/kWh => $342.86 . What's the most comparable new ICE? How much would it cost to drive 120,000 miles on E85?

 

[oilhammer]

Enjoying a nice steak for dinner tonight, cooked on a charcoal grill, and a ride into town in the big block F250 for ice cream afterwards....in nwdriver's honor.

 

[turbobrick240]

Burning E85 instead of gasoline doesn't reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It's just a shell game moving the carbon emissions around.

 

[nwdiver]

As long as you people call it "fossil fuel", it's "part of the carbon cycle".

'Alright, imagine there's a big circle called the "carbon cycle." This circle is like a game where carbon moves around and changes forms. Carbon is a special element that can be found in lots of things, like plants, animals, and even the air we breathe.

Now, oil is a very thick, sticky liquid that comes from deep underground. It's like a special kind of juice that comes from the Earth. But here's the interesting part: oil is actually really old plants and tiny animals that lived a long, long time ago. They got buried underground and over millions of years, they turned into oil.

So, when we take oil out of the ground and burn it to make energy, something important happens. The carbon in the oil, which was trapped deep underground for a really long time, gets released into the air all at once. This is different from the normal carbon cycle, where carbon moves around slowly between plants, animals, and the air.

When we release too much carbon into the air from burning oil and other fossil fuels, it can cause problems for our planet. It's like adding too much of something to a recipe and making it taste funny. This extra carbon can make the Earth warmer, which we call "climate change." That's why we need to be careful and find other ways to make energy that don't release so much carbon into the air.' - Chat GBT

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Wind farm is selling to you for ~$0.01/kWh? That's a sweet deal. For you solar 100% doesn't make any sense but a BEV sure would

Let's compare options that actually exist at scale. Some market segments like Vans haven't seen enough BEV action yet.

What's the most comparable vehicle to a Model 3? Dealers choice. You can get a Model 3 for ~$33k. Over 10 years you'd drive ~120,000 miles? With the incredible deal you're getting from your local wind farm the energy to drive 120,000 miles would cost (120,000miles)(3.5miles/kWh) = 34,286kWh => $0.01/kWh => $342.86 . What's the most comparable new ICE? How much would it cost to drive 120,000 miles on E85?

Problem is, EV won't do the job- Not enough charging points for a start as well as severe weather. Teslas are nonstarters, nearest dealer is almost 200 miles away so a service costs a minimum of $500. The only halfway viable EV out here is a Bolt, and only if I could buy it for $10k or less new. Again, EVs aren't ready for "prime time"...

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Burning E85 instead of gasoline doesn't reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It's just a shell game moving the carbon emissions around.

No, the feedstocks absorb carbon while growing.

 

[wxman]

Forests burn. It's part of being a forest. The solution is more controlled burns. Whether they burn or rot the GHGs get returned to the atmosphere. Unlike oil they're part of the carbon cycle.

Controlled (prescribed) burns can't be safely completed if the fuel loadings are too high, thus substantial thinning is required before those burns can be done without the risk of the burn getting out of control. Up to 90% of the biomass needs to be removed before a prescribed burn can be safely done in some cases.

Whether they burn or rot the GHGs get returned to the atmosphere. Unlike oil they're part of the carbon cycle.

If biofuels are produced from those forest wastes, the carbon is recycled but useful work can be produced from the biofuels, unlike just letting the wildfires burn out of control. Criteria pollutants are also very well controlled in the biofuels scenario.

The 'carbon negative' fuel is negative because it's sequestering carbon? How much is it per gallon?

Yes, it's a process to sequestering carbon. Not sure of the cost of this fuel, but EPA did a rigorous study in its RFS documents that would produce BBD without CCS) at about $3.50/gallon in today's dollars.

 

[turbobrick240]

No, the feedstocks absorb carbon while growing.

U.S. corn-based ethanol worse for the climate than gasoline, study finds

Corn-based ethanol, which for years has been mixed in huge quantities into gasoline sold at U.S. pumps, is likely a much bigger contributor to global warming than straight gasoline, according to a study published Monday.

www.reuters.com

 

[gulfcoastguy]

There are several videos on ewetube where goats are used to eat firebreaks . They eat down all shrubbery, completely destroying seeds. Plus surplus goats get turned into stew or dog food.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Junk "Science"- That study has been widely criticized because they tried to estimate acreage used for growing corn from aerial photos, an inexact science at best. Building their scientific "house of cards" on that unstable foundation, they then made a bunch of questionable assumptions to support their anti-ethanol conclusion. Interesting to see supposed environmental groups that funded this "study" supporting big oil...

 

[turbobrick240]

With the advances in quantum computing it will just be couple of years before scientists can do MUCH more accurate modeling. This will reveal the extent of the US corn ethanol industry fugazi beyond any doubt.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

With the advances in quantum computing it will just be couple of years before scientists can do MUCH more accurate modeling. This will reveal the extent of the US corn ethanol industry fugazi beyond any doubt.

Problem is not lack of computing power, the problem is unreliable data. Garbage In= Garbage Out!

 

[rwthomas1]

An interesting thread. I would recommend that y'all read Vaclav Smils book, How the World Really Works. Its largely apolitical, filled with well researched information. The conclusion you will come to is we are doing it all wrong, and the solution isnt easy, or short term, meaning it will likely never be implemented.

 

[J_dude]

oil is actually really old plants and tiny animals that lived a long, long time ago. They got buried underground and over millions of years, they turned into oil.

 

[dieseldonato]

Star wars......

 

[pkhoury]

There are several videos on ewetube where goats are used to eat firebreaks . They eat down all shrubbery, completely destroying seeds. Plus surplus goats get turned into stew or dog food.

Or delicious burgers. I had some unwanted dairy goat bucks a few years ago turned into hamburger. Delicious!

 

[jmodge]

Or delicious burgers. I had some unwanted dairy goat bucks a few years ago turned into hamburger. Delicious!

Please tell me you didn’t cook them on a solar powered electric stovetop

 

[pkhoury]

Well, indirectly, my stovetop might be solar powered - whatever's feeding into the Texas grid. I know I've taken some on a past trip out west, and those were cooked on a Coleman stove running zero emissions 87 octane gasoline.

 

[pkhoury]

When we release too much carbon into the air from burning oil and other fossil fuels, it can cause problems for our planet. It's like adding too much of something to a recipe and making it taste funny. This extra carbon can make the Earth warmer, which we call "climate change." That's why we need to be careful and find other ways to make energy that don't release so much carbon into the air.' - Chat GBT

I would post the ChatGPT response to this, but it has so much profanity, it would make a sailor blush.