2/3rds EVs by 2032... Realistic? (and time to horde diesels?)

[gearheadgrrrl]

What the EV cultists fail to note is that battery material shortages, limited charging capacity, limited renewable generating capacity, and the decades needed to add grid capacity will limit EV growth for the next few decades. In the meantime, running our ICs on renewable fuels can reduce GHG production as much or more than bidding up the price of scarce EVs.

 

[turbobrick240]

The Saudis, Russians, etc. can turn off their oil spigots any time they like and send diesel prices back over $6 a gallon. Aside from the very serious environmental concerns, electrifying transport is a national security issue. That's why it's following a typical disruptive technology adoption S-curve.

 

[oilhammer]

And the Chinese can shut the planet down with one bowl of undercooked bat soup, LOL. Or a leaky lab.... whatever. They also could shut it down based on manufacturing. Good ol' coal powered manufacturing.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

The Saudis, Russians, etc. can turn off their oil spigots any time they like and send diesel prices back over $6 a gallon. Aside from the very serious environmental concerns, electrifying transport is a national security issue. That's why it's following a typical disruptive technology adoption S-curve.

There's at least a dozen countries with nuclear weapons and all it takes is a low altitude detonation to destroy electronic components for hundreds of miles around= Most EVs permanently bricked. And you want to make us 100% reliant on such vulnerable technology?

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

electrifying transport is a national security issue.

Nice sound bite, but it flat out isn't. We have enough production capacity in the US to get along even if we were cut off. When prices were consistently higher a few years ago we were a net exporter of oil for a while.

I can't help but wonder where we'd be if instead of migrating our ICE fleet to 2 plus ton SUVs and trucks that are lucky to hit mid teens FE, we had moved towards low CO2 fuel efficient cars. Driving a Lupo-like vehicle getting 60+ MPG on gasoline or diesel would have to have had a positive effect on emissions, not to mention particulates and highway damage.

I think EVs can have a beneficial effect on climate change, but we're doing it all wrong. Manufacturers should build, and Americans should buy, small, shorter range EVs for suburban and city use. For the battery capacity of one Mercedes EQE you could build 4 Honda-es. And it would work better than the Mercedes for the vast majority of people's transportation needs. Keep a larger ICE car for trips, or rent one. Or take a train.

 

[gmenounos]

There's at least a dozen countries with nuclear weapons and all it takes is a low altitude detonation to destroy electronic components for hundreds of miles around= Most EVs permanently bricked. And you want to make us 100% reliant on such vulnerable technology?

Your 2003 Golf would be just as bricked. As would 99.99% (probably more) of the vehicles in the US.

 

[oilhammer]

Peter, that has been my point all along (and why I am continually scratching my head as to why the high-and-mighty nwdriver spends so much time here trying to indoctrinate US, when we are hardly a problem).

When the F150 (gasoline powered) is the single best selling model here, with the equally thirsty (and mostly gasoline powered) Silverado right behind it, preaching to a bunch of people driving 50+ MPG diesel Volkswagens seems really, really dumb. But chances are, if he spent some time on a Ford pickup forum, they'd find him and burn his house down, Tesla and all.

Dieselgate proved the absurdity of it, too, by vilifying these same 50 MPG cars, removing our access to them, and making sure plenty of pump suckers are still available (there is no Atlas ever going to be tagging even 35 MPG... but we can certainly buy those!).

 

[Daemon64]

Peter, that has been my point all along (and why I am continually scratching my head as to why the high-and-mighty nwdriver spends so much time here trying to indoctrinate US, when we are hardly a problem).

When the F150 (gasoline powered) is the single best selling model here, with the equally thirsty (and mostly gasoline powered) Silverado right behind it, preaching to a bunch of people driving 50+ MPG diesel Volkswagens seems really, really dumb. But chances are, if he spent some time on a Ford pickup forum, they'd find him and burn his house down, Tesla and all.

Dieselgate proved the absurdity of it, too, by vilifying these same 50 MPG cars, removing our access to them, and making sure plenty of pump suckers are still available (there is no Atlas ever going to be tagging even 35 MPG... but we can certainly buy those!).

Ya'know oil --> We don't always see eye to eye... but this has to be easily the strongest argument you've ever made. So much so *applauds*. Give me some god damned diesels back into the market. Especially if renewable diesel was available across the country.

Side note wife and I are BOTH getting rid our electrics when the lease is up. We've almost gotten stranded a few more times this season. We've picked out new cars when we're done and thats the deal. I'd buy a modern diesel VW or Audi but they dont exist and when I am in the market in 2025 I certainly am not looking to buy a nearly decade old car. So instead of buying say a GTD, or a SQ5 TDI --> 2024 RS3 for me ( I will pre-order it and it will take a while to get it ). Gets 33 MPG @75 MPH according to car and driver, sounds amazing to me for a 0-60 in mid 3s car. Wife --> Getting a Golf R Manual MK8. Why? We like small fast cars.... and there are no diesels, and Electrify America is so bad I've decided I'm not looking at an electric for another decade.

 

[turbobrick240]

Ya'know oil --> We don't always see eye to eye... but this has to be easily the strongest argument you've ever made. So much so *applauds*. Give me some god damned diesels back into the market. Especially if renewable diesel was available across the country.

Side note wife and I are BOTH getting rid our electrics when the lease is up. We've almost gotten stranded a few more times this season. We've picked out new cars when we're done and thats the deal. I'd buy a modern diesel VW or Audi but they dont exist and when I am in the market in 2025 I certainly am not looking to buy a nearly decade old car. So instead of buying say a GTD, or a SQ5 TDI --> 2024 RS3 for me ( I will pre-order it and it will take a while to get it ). Gets 33 MPG @75 MPH according to car and driver, sounds amazing to me for a 0-60 in mid 3s car. Wife --> Getting a Golf R Manual MK8. Why? We like small fast cars.... and there are no diesels, and Electrify America is so bad I've decided I'm not looking at an electric for another decade.

Diesel passenger cars will never come back to this market. They're even rapidly disappearing from what not long ago was their stronghold- the European market. I plan to run my 2010 Golf into the ground, and toss whatever money I can into the stock market and maybe real estate instead of into new cars and other depreciating assets.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Although I think you're right, they've left and come back before. And as I posted above, manufacturers are still investing in building production capacity for diesel pickups and large SUVs.

I think diesel powered luxury cars still make sense, but I may be in the minority. An Audi A8 or Range Rover with a diesel makes a lot of sense.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Your 2003 Golf would be just as bricked. As would 99.99% (probably more) of the vehicles in the US.

Ever heard of an "M-TDI"? Under the electronics of an ALH or earlier TDI lies a mechanical fuel pump with it's roots in the first VW diesels of the 70s!

 

[turbobrick240]

Ever heard of an "M-TDI"? Under the electronics of an ALH or earlier TDI lies a mechanical fuel pump with it's roots in the first VW diesels of the 70s!

Have fun trying to convert your car to M-TDI with nukes going off overhead. Why bother investing in a solar array, when you could build a Faraday cage garage instead. Prepper priorities.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Have fun trying to convert your car to M-TDI with nukes going off overhead. Why bother investing in a solar array, when you could build a Faraday cage garage instead. Prepper priorities.

Actually I'm over a hundred miles away from any likely targets, you think I should put a steel door on my concrete garage to complete the cage?

 

[nwdiver]

when we are hardly a problem).

Why not stick with that? Why do y'all feel the need to peddle so much disinformation?

V Like this... V

What the EV cultists fail to note is that battery material shortages, limited charging capacity, limited renewable generating capacity, and the decades needed to add grid capacity will limit EV growth for the next few decades.

• Nickel and Cobalt are the only substantive material bottlenecks both of which have been solved, LiFe are becoming more common and don't use Ni or Co. We'll be shifting to Na-Ion batteries long before lithium becomes an issue.
• Renewables increased from 824TWh in 2020 to 875TWh in 2021. Enough to support an additional ~13M EVs while only ~750k were sold in the US. So... no... renewable generation additions are outpacing EVs by a significant margin.
• The grid already has sufficient off-peak capacity even if all vehicles were electric. The US produces ~4,000TWh/yr with an average CF of 50%. Vehicle miles in the US is ~3.3T/yr. ~1.2TWh/yr of additional generation would be sufficient to cover that. That would only increase CF to ~70%.

And the concept that using biofuels are the solution is simply absurd. We have limited feedstock and it's all being used. The only solution is to burn less diesel. That was a motivation for me to upgrade from the Jetta. I was using B100 but realized I was buying everything from the guy that made it. So every gallon I bought just meant he would burn another gallon of diesel. It was accomplishing nothing. Same with how the EU started buying oil from India instead of from Russia. Russia is still selling the same volume of oil.... they're just selling it to India now instead...

 

[wxman]

...And the concept that using biofuels are the solution is simply absurd. We have limited feedstock and it's all being used....

Apparently, it's not yet.

News & Featured Stories - Clean Fuels Alliance America

 

[nwdiver]

Apparently, it's not yet.

News & Featured Stories - Clean Fuels Alliance America

Soybeans and Oilseed? Is there a glut of soybeans and oilseed? Do you want another spike in food prices? The dumbest thing we can do is to use farmland to make fuel.

 

[wxman]

Soybeans and Oilseed? Is there a glut of soybeans and oilseed? Do you want another spike in food prices? The dumbest thing we can do is to use farmland to make fuel.

It says in the letter:

...The additional biodiesel and renewable diesel gallons produced in the first four months of this year have filled three times over the increase in BBD volumes that EPA proposed for the entire year....

BBD = biomass-based diesel

Seed oil is a very small part of the potential feedstock for BBD.

There's enough WASTE organic material to produce as much as 55B gallons/year of BBD. The typical jet fuel + diesel fuel usage is ~85B gallons/year.

 

[nwdiver]

It says in the letter:

...The additional biodiesel and renewable diesel gallons produced in the first four months of this year have filled three times over the increase in BBD volumes that EPA proposed for the entire year....

BBD = biomass-based diesel

.... yeah.... they're exceeding the EPA quota and asking for more subsidies to convert more food into fuel. It's not like the food is going to waste... it's being used as food. Hence my point that 'all the feed stock is being used'. Food should be used as food not fuel.

~40% of the corn we grow is already used as fuel. We're well past the point of insanity. That's ~36M acres of prime farmland to produce ~5% of the liquid fuel we consume. ~30M acres of solar would cover 100% of ALL energy needs.

 

[wxman]

.... yeah.... they're exceeding the EPA quota and asking for more subsidies to convert more food into fuel. It's not like the food is going to waste... it's being used as food. Hence my point that 'all the feed stock is being used'. Food should be used as food not fuel.

I agree, but there's a LOT of waste material that COULD be used for BBD feedstock.

 

[nwdiver]

I agree, but there's a LOT of waste material that COULD be used for BBD feedstock.

What waste? Where? The letter isn't asking for waste to be converted. They're asking to get paid to turn more soybeans and Oilseed into fuel instead of selling it as food. 41 lbs of soybeans is better as 41 lbs of soybeans not 1 gallon of diesel.

 

[wxman]

There's a HUGE supply of waste forest material that's not only potentially available, there's a desperate need for a market for it.

The main issue with massive wildfires is the massive fuel loadings in many forest lands in the U.S. If these lands were better managed and excess vegetation used for feedstock for BBD, we could solve two issues with one solution - reduce massive wildfires and provide a feedstock for renewable diesel.

Red Rock Biofuels

www.redrockbio.com

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

In my state of Minnesota about 85% of all crops harvested are used for... Animal feed mostly, and some biofuel production. There isn't enough biomass out there to replace all petroleum fuel use, but biofuels can take a big chunk out of that source of GHG. Same with EVs- Nowhere near enough materials and power to replace petroleum fuels, but they can take a big bite out of GHG production too. We need to dramatically reduce GHG production, and we need both biofuels, EVs, and more efficient vehicles like 50 MPG TDIs to accomplish that goal. So EV cultists, quit wasting your time promoting the technology you worship when it can't do the whole job!

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

What waste? Where? The letter isn't asking for waste to be converted. They're asking to get paid to turn more soybeans and Oilseed into fuel instead of selling it as food. 41 lbs of soybeans is better as 41 lbs of soybeans not 1 gallon of diesel.

There are all kinds of applications out here in rural America that EVs won't be able to do for decades, but biofuels are ready to go to work reducing GHGs now. Sorry, the planet is on fire, and we can't wait for your EV cultist's EV tractor fantasies!

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

.... yeah.... they're exceeding the EPA quota and asking for more subsidies to convert more food into fuel. It's not like the food is going to waste... it's being used as food. Hence my point that 'all the feed stock is being used'. Food should be used as food not fuel.

~40% of the corn we grow is already used as fuel. We're well past the point of insanity. That's ~36M acres of prime farmland to produce ~5% of the liquid fuel we consume. ~30M acres of solar would cover 100% of ALL energy needs.

So you want us to let almost half our fields go fallow and drive the farmers bankrupt and produce even more GHGs running our vehicles and tractors on oil instead of biofuels... And you call yourself an environmentalist?

 

[TomJD]

Is most the web traffic on this site related to EV banter nowadays? I bet we can find a way to quantify that.

 

[nwdiver]

can't do the whole job!

How precisely would wind, solar and storage be unable to 'do the whole job'?

The progression isn't complicated. Renewables are dirt cheap. Now ~$1/w and there's virtually no resource bottlenecks. Solar is Sand and Aluminum. Literally 2 of the most common materials on Earth. So you essentially 'flood the field'. The first challenge is curtailment. This already occurs where RE supply > demand. So... you need to create demand at 2am or noon when RE supply > demand. Batteries. Why not kill two birds and use these batteries for transportation? That's the synergistic relationship between EVs and RE. Once you've demand shifted as much as possible add grid storage. As surplus grows more you produce Hydrogen. H2 then fills all the remaining niches.

So how exactly can't this 'do the whole job'?

So you want us to let almost half our fields go fallow and drive the farmers bankrupt and produce even more GHGs running our vehicles and tractors on oil instead of biofuels... And you call yourself an environmentalist?

Farming more sustainably using cover crops for a fews seasons would REDUCE GHGs since it would require less fertilizer. And there's something to be said for 're-wilding' some areas. People complain about solar farms taking farmland but 1 acre of solar is ~40x more productive than an acre of corn if it's just being used for fuel.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

There's a HUGE supply of waste forest material that's not only potentially available, there's a desperate need for a market for it.

The main issue with massive wildfires is the massive fuel loadings in many forest lands in the U.S. If these lands were better managed and excess vegetation used for feedstock for BBD, we could solve two issues with one solution - reduce massive wildfires and provide a feedstock for renewable diesel.

Red Rock Biofuels

www.redrockbio.com

Or Saint Paul district energy, which has been powering, heating, and cooling downtown Saint Paul with scrap wood for over four decades! https://www.districtenergy.com/about/history/

 

[nwdiver]

Or Saint Paul district energy, which has been powering, heating, and cooling downtown Saint Paul with scrap wood for over four decades! https://www.districtenergy.com/about/history/

Sure. Cheap and easy to burn wood to boil water. Converting it into diesel is another matter entirely. And that's another competitor for feedstock. Old coal plants are buying up every lb of biomass they can get their hands on to burn.

Like I said.... limited supply and it's ~all being used. The UK is importing it from Canada....

 

[wxman]

Sure. Cheap and easy to burn wood to boil water. Converting it into diesel is another matter entirely. And that's another competitor for feedstock. Old coal plants are buying up every lb of biomass they can get their hands on to burn.

Like I said.... limited supply and it's ~all being used. The UK is importing it from Canada....

Then why is <1% of electricity generated in the U.S. from biomass (0.3% according to GREET model)?

 

[wxman]

Why aren't the folks who are concerned about cAGW at least as enthusiastic about biofuels as they are about BEV technology?

BBD has the potential to be carbon negative if properly configured.

Negative-emission fuel agreement - Velocys

Velocys’ Bayou Fuels project set to produce negative emission fuels after signing CCUS agreement with Oxy Low Carbon Ventures. Velocys, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Velocys plc (Velocys), announced today it has signed an agreement with Oxy Low Carbon Ventures, LLC (OLCV), to capture carbon...

velocys.com

Strategic Biofuels licenses Johnson Matthey-bp FT CANS technology for Louisiana plant

Strategic Biofuels has selected Johnson Matthey’s (JM’s) Fischer Tropsch (FT) CANS technology—co-developed with bp—for its Louisiana Green Fuels project (LGF) in Caldwell Parish, Louisiana. Located on a 327-acre site at the Port of Columbia, the LGF plant plans to convert 1 million tons of...

www.greencarcongress.com

TerraStar Energy to license Emerging Fuels Technology’s Fischer-Tropsch and Maxx Jet/Maxx Diesel upgrading technology

TerraStar Energy signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Emerging Fuels Technology (EFT) to license EFT’s Fischer-Tropsch (FT) and Maxx Jet/Maxx Diesel proprietary technology (earlier post) to build a fleet of FLEX plants—small-scale, modular renewable diesel facilities. Each plant will...

www.greencarcongress.com

Synthetic fuels ("efuels") can also be carbon negative

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.0c05893