2/3rds EVs by 2032... Realistic? (and time to horde diesels?)

[gearheadgrrrl]

I live in the middle of a couple billion KW of wind turbine capacity so all the companies that maintain wind turbines are here. Drive by their building and you'll see maybe a half ton pickup or three out front, that's for the managers. Out back you'll find everything from 1 ton crew cab long wheelbase pickups often with utility bodies through heavier single and tandem drive work trucks and maybe a big mobile crane or three, and other than the half ton most everything is diesel powered. The crews that do routine maintenance often do several wind turbines a day and some travel around for a week at a time, so they need a truck with the capacity to carry lubricants for several turbines. They could lift all this one person or a couple pails at a time with a helicopter or drive it there with a Tesla, but that'd take many more trips and produce more of the dreaded GHG.

nwdiver, sorry to expose you to these inconvenient truths about Teslas, may I should add trigger warnings?

 

[turbobrick240]

A couple billion KW? That would be enough to power all of the US, Canada, and a chunk of Mexico. Even after accounting for capacity factor, that's a wee bit optimistic.

 

[nwdiver]

I live in the middle of a couple billion KW of wind turbine capacity so all the companies that maintain wind turbines are here. Drive by their building and you'll see maybe a half ton pickup or three out front, that's for the managers. Out back you'll find everything from 1 ton crew cab long wheelbase pickups often with utility bodies through heavier single and tandem drive work trucks and maybe a big mobile crane or three, and other than the half ton most everything is diesel powered. The crews that do routine maintenance often do several wind turbines a day and some travel around for a week at a time, so they need a truck with the capacity to carry lubricants for several turbines. They could lift all this one person or a couple pails at a time with a helicopter or drive it there with a Tesla, but that'd take many more trips and produce more of the dreaded GHG.

nwdiver, sorry to expose you to these inconvenient truths about Teslas, may I should add trigger warnings?

I'm just amused that you feel the need to come up with such implausible arguments. The range of cargo is a clipboard or ~3 tons of gear but nothing in between? Really? People are creative. If they want something to happen good chance they'll find a way. If they don't want something to happen good chance they'll find excuses. They might be implausible excuses but they'll think of some.

2/3rds EVs is NEW vehicles. I suspect few people here plan to buy a new vehicles anytime soon if ever anyway. And isn't the argument that a used vehicle is better because you're not expending resources to build a new car? So why waste resources building new ICE? Keep the old ones around as long as possible and just build new EVs.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Back on topic, I've seen a couple articles about Ford's low EV sales. Seems if you read carefully it has as much to do with supply as demand, but the Mustang Mach-e isn't selling that well, even after Ford re-started production. And sales of the Lightening are a little confusing: they've had production issues, but it's not clear whether or not a high percentage of people with reservations will take delivery.

Ford's overall sales are a tiny percentage of its total sales, and a tiny percentage of EV sales overall, with Tesla (no surprise) dominating. But the take rate doesn't yet seem to be increasing at the velocity needed to get to 2/3 by 2032.

Side note: GM has announced two major investments this week: first is close to $1B to re-configure the Flint, MI plants to make the next gen Silverado 2500 and 3500 (read: diesel), and $500M to retool Arlington TX for the next gen Escalade, which they also plant to continue to offer with a diesel.

CNBC says that GM needs revenue from these "traditional" vehicles to fund their transition to low margin EVs. Seems that shareholders might want to have a say in a strategy that trades high margin products for low or negative margin products.

 

[gulfcoastguy]

News lately, both FORD and GM are changing to the Tesla charging plug.

 

[turbobrick240]

News lately, both FORD and GM are changing to the Tesla charging plug.

That's big news. I suspect VW will join the NACS party quite soon as well. Which would undoubtedly lead to EA adopting the standard.

GM to use Tesla charging network, joining Ford in leveraging the EV leader's tech

GM, like Ford, will begin installing a charging port used by Tesla, known as NACS, instead of the current industry-standard CCS in its EVs starting in 2025.

www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[nwdiver]

But the take rate doesn't yet seem to be increasing at the velocity needed to get to 2/3 by 2032.

Allow me to introduce you to the 'S-Curve' for consumer adoption.

EV sales in the US were 462k in 2021 and 763k in 2022. That's a ~60% increase. EV sales will hit >9M (2/3rds) in < 6 years at that rate.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Who made that up? Seems you could draw that as steep or as shallow as your opinions incline you to.

Maybe this one is a little more logical:

 

[nwdiver]

Who made that up? Seems you could draw that as steep or as shallow as your opinions incline you to.

Maybe this one is a little more logical:

??? That's the same curve. The S-curve just show % market share.

Here's what it looks like in the real world;

 

[turbobrick240]

It's the time scale on the S-curve graph that adds another dimension.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

I'm just amused that you feel the need to come up with such implausible arguments. The range of cargo is a clipboard or ~3 tons of gear but nothing in between? Really? People are creative. If they want something to happen good chance they'll find a way. If they don't want something to happen good chance they'll find excuses. They might be implausible excuses but they'll think of some.

2/3rds EVs is NEW vehicles. I suspect few people here plan to buy a new vehicles anytime soon if ever anyway. And isn't the argument that a used vehicle is better because you're not expending resources to build a new car? So why waste resources building new ICE? Keep the old ones around as long as possible and just build new EVs.

The vehicle needs to be able to handle the heaviest loads, as making multiple trips loses the efficiency of a smaller vehicle. I've seen this lesson learned the hard way many times in fleets over the years- Like when the Postal Service tried to downsize they're maintainence vans from full size to minivans- They quickly found the minivans usually didn't have the capacity to carry all the tools and parts they needed to carry.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Allow me to introduce you to the 'S-Curve' for consumer adoption.

EV sales in the US were 462k in 2021 and 763k in 2022. That's a ~60% increase. EV sales will hit >9M (2/3rds) in < 6 years at that rate.

You expect EV sales to follow a normal curve? I can give you a heck of a deal on a bridge...

 

[turbodieseldyke]

Now insert Uncle Sam and Auntie EUnice pushing the curve to places it wouldn't go naturally in a free market.

 

[turbobrick240]

Governments always have had and always will have influence on trade markets. That's just how the real world works.

 

[nwdiver]

You expect EV sales to follow a normal curve? I can give you a heck of a deal on a bridge...

Nope. I expect consumer adoption to follow a typical consumer adoption curve

Which it is. Some countries are just more ahead of the curve than others Norway went from ~5% to 2/3rds in ~6 years. The US is ~5% now.

 

[oilhammer]

Good ol' Norway, always that shining example. 50% taxes, 97% lily white people, and a GIANT oil/gas export industry funding most of it. Yes, a fantastic place we should all strive to be like.

At least they don't need air conditioning.

 

[Zak99b5]

Average commute in Norway is about 10 miles. In the US it's about 40. Nevermind that the US is 30x the size of Norway.

 

[oilhammer]

It is a ridiculous comparison, that always comes up.

They also do not have hordes of non-native people risking their lives to get in.

 

[nwdiver]

Average commute in Norway is about 10 miles. In the US it's about 40. Nevermind that the US is 30x the size of Norway.

That's probably why they hit ~5% ~10 years earlier than the US did but it's hardly relevant with EVs available today.

In 2013 a $35k EV had a range of ~80 miles and a 500 mile road trip took days. In 2023 a $35k EV has a range of ~300 miles and a 500 mile road trip takes 8 hours.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

What the EV cultists fail to note is that battery material shortages, limited charging capacity, limited renewable generating capacity, and the decades needed to add grid capacity will limit EV growth for the next few decades. In the meantime, running our ICs on renewable fuels can reduce GHG production as much or more than bidding up the price of scarce EVs.

 

[turbobrick240]

The Saudis, Russians, etc. can turn off their oil spigots any time they like and send diesel prices back over $6 a gallon. Aside from the very serious environmental concerns, electrifying transport is a national security issue. That's why it's following a typical disruptive technology adoption S-curve.

 

[oilhammer]

And the Chinese can shut the planet down with one bowl of undercooked bat soup, LOL. Or a leaky lab.... whatever. They also could shut it down based on manufacturing. Good ol' coal powered manufacturing.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

The Saudis, Russians, etc. can turn off their oil spigots any time they like and send diesel prices back over $6 a gallon. Aside from the very serious environmental concerns, electrifying transport is a national security issue. That's why it's following a typical disruptive technology adoption S-curve.

There's at least a dozen countries with nuclear weapons and all it takes is a low altitude detonation to destroy electronic components for hundreds of miles around= Most EVs permanently bricked. And you want to make us 100% reliant on such vulnerable technology?

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

electrifying transport is a national security issue.

Nice sound bite, but it flat out isn't. We have enough production capacity in the US to get along even if we were cut off. When prices were consistently higher a few years ago we were a net exporter of oil for a while.

I can't help but wonder where we'd be if instead of migrating our ICE fleet to 2 plus ton SUVs and trucks that are lucky to hit mid teens FE, we had moved towards low CO2 fuel efficient cars. Driving a Lupo-like vehicle getting 60+ MPG on gasoline or diesel would have to have had a positive effect on emissions, not to mention particulates and highway damage.

I think EVs can have a beneficial effect on climate change, but we're doing it all wrong. Manufacturers should build, and Americans should buy, small, shorter range EVs for suburban and city use. For the battery capacity of one Mercedes EQE you could build 4 Honda-es. And it would work better than the Mercedes for the vast majority of people's transportation needs. Keep a larger ICE car for trips, or rent one. Or take a train.

 

[gmenounos]

There's at least a dozen countries with nuclear weapons and all it takes is a low altitude detonation to destroy electronic components for hundreds of miles around= Most EVs permanently bricked. And you want to make us 100% reliant on such vulnerable technology?

Your 2003 Golf would be just as bricked. As would 99.99% (probably more) of the vehicles in the US.

 

[oilhammer]

Peter, that has been my point all along (and why I am continually scratching my head as to why the high-and-mighty nwdriver spends so much time here trying to indoctrinate US, when we are hardly a problem).

When the F150 (gasoline powered) is the single best selling model here, with the equally thirsty (and mostly gasoline powered) Silverado right behind it, preaching to a bunch of people driving 50+ MPG diesel Volkswagens seems really, really dumb. But chances are, if he spent some time on a Ford pickup forum, they'd find him and burn his house down, Tesla and all.

Dieselgate proved the absurdity of it, too, by vilifying these same 50 MPG cars, removing our access to them, and making sure plenty of pump suckers are still available (there is no Atlas ever going to be tagging even 35 MPG... but we can certainly buy those!).

 

[Daemon64]

Peter, that has been my point all along (and why I am continually scratching my head as to why the high-and-mighty nwdriver spends so much time here trying to indoctrinate US, when we are hardly a problem).

When the F150 (gasoline powered) is the single best selling model here, with the equally thirsty (and mostly gasoline powered) Silverado right behind it, preaching to a bunch of people driving 50+ MPG diesel Volkswagens seems really, really dumb. But chances are, if he spent some time on a Ford pickup forum, they'd find him and burn his house down, Tesla and all.

Dieselgate proved the absurdity of it, too, by vilifying these same 50 MPG cars, removing our access to them, and making sure plenty of pump suckers are still available (there is no Atlas ever going to be tagging even 35 MPG... but we can certainly buy those!).

Ya'know oil --> We don't always see eye to eye... but this has to be easily the strongest argument you've ever made. So much so *applauds*. Give me some god damned diesels back into the market. Especially if renewable diesel was available across the country.

Side note wife and I are BOTH getting rid our electrics when the lease is up. We've almost gotten stranded a few more times this season. We've picked out new cars when we're done and thats the deal. I'd buy a modern diesel VW or Audi but they dont exist and when I am in the market in 2025 I certainly am not looking to buy a nearly decade old car. So instead of buying say a GTD, or a SQ5 TDI --> 2024 RS3 for me ( I will pre-order it and it will take a while to get it ). Gets 33 MPG @75 MPH according to car and driver, sounds amazing to me for a 0-60 in mid 3s car. Wife --> Getting a Golf R Manual MK8. Why? We like small fast cars.... and there are no diesels, and Electrify America is so bad I've decided I'm not looking at an electric for another decade.

 

[turbobrick240]

Ya'know oil --> We don't always see eye to eye... but this has to be easily the strongest argument you've ever made. So much so *applauds*. Give me some god damned diesels back into the market. Especially if renewable diesel was available across the country.

Side note wife and I are BOTH getting rid our electrics when the lease is up. We've almost gotten stranded a few more times this season. We've picked out new cars when we're done and thats the deal. I'd buy a modern diesel VW or Audi but they dont exist and when I am in the market in 2025 I certainly am not looking to buy a nearly decade old car. So instead of buying say a GTD, or a SQ5 TDI --> 2024 RS3 for me ( I will pre-order it and it will take a while to get it ). Gets 33 MPG @75 MPH according to car and driver, sounds amazing to me for a 0-60 in mid 3s car. Wife --> Getting a Golf R Manual MK8. Why? We like small fast cars.... and there are no diesels, and Electrify America is so bad I've decided I'm not looking at an electric for another decade.

Diesel passenger cars will never come back to this market. They're even rapidly disappearing from what not long ago was their stronghold- the European market. I plan to run my 2010 Golf into the ground, and toss whatever money I can into the stock market and maybe real estate instead of into new cars and other depreciating assets.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Although I think you're right, they've left and come back before. And as I posted above, manufacturers are still investing in building production capacity for diesel pickups and large SUVs.

I think diesel powered luxury cars still make sense, but I may be in the minority. An Audi A8 or Range Rover with a diesel makes a lot of sense.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Your 2003 Golf would be just as bricked. As would 99.99% (probably more) of the vehicles in the US.

Ever heard of an "M-TDI"? Under the electronics of an ALH or earlier TDI lies a mechanical fuel pump with it's roots in the first VW diesels of the 70s!