2/3rds EVs by 2032... Realistic? (and time to horde diesels?)

[jmodge]

I don’t live in Sweden, Norway, or by what news stories tell me. Until I actually see it happening, it’s just projections or marketing. Anyone can think they know what the future is. I don’t see anywhere near even 3% EV’s wherever I go. I spot one on rare occasion in a parking lot or on the road. Go out and start counting EV’s, I would be surprised if your results will mirror what this thread is about

 

[dieseldonato]

Just on general observation driving around my area, you see a few ev's nothing even close to 1/3 of the vehicles, I'd bet I see more hybrids then pure ev on any given day, and even the hybrids arnt that many. By comparison to a few years ago, where a Tesla stuck out like a sore thumb, it's definatly more common to see ev now, but still rare enough you notice them driving by.

 

[turbodieseldyke]

EV sales rose to 62% of market share in Sweden last month. Diesel sales have absolutely cratered there over the last few years.

Have Swedes conquered the cold weather problem for EVs, or do they just hibernate for the winter now?

 

[turbobrick240]

Have Swedes conquered the cold weather problem for EVs, or do they just hibernate for the winter now?

The Norwegians conquered it, then the Swedes just looked over and realized it was no big thing.

 

[ekincaid]

Toyota has stated they will be getting out of EV.

Seems like that isn't the case.... Here is what is happening in NC.

MSN

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Was looking at some Ford sales stats the other day, despite all the PR about EV sales taking off they're still a single digit percentage of Ford sales and plug in hybrids are selling better. What's worrisome is that automakers are betting billions on electrification- Between them Ford and GM will have the capacity to build a couple million EVs a year. If electrification doesn't take off, and I see no signs it is, the automakers are facing billions of dollars in debt for EV factories and tooling that's barely being used. Clearly more conservative planning is needed- Looking at the underside of my Golf 7 it's obvious it was designed for IC, hybrid, or EV power- Why did VW waste billions to bring their slow selling "ID" EVs to market?

 

[turbobrick240]

The ID4 is selling quite well in Europe. I also live in a rural area where electrification of the auto fleet is in the very early stages. I wouldn't ignore global and national trends just because the transition is slower in my little corner of the world, though. It's hard to see much of anything with your head buried in the sand.

Tesla Model Y Was The World's Best-Selling Car In Q1 2023

The numbers show the Tesla Model Y was the best-selling car in the world for the first quarter of 2023.

www.motor1.com

 

[gulfcoastguy]

They are selling all of the ID4s that they can make. Unfortunately they were very vulnerable to supply chain disruption by the Ukrainian war( wiring harness) . VW opened production in Chattanooga about 10 months ago so the situation should slowly improve.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

That "head in the sand" stereotyping cannot go unchallenged. I follow the stats pretty closely and while electrics are dominating some markets, it's often because they're heavily subsidized and suit the market. But even with favorable market characteristics, some are selling poorly- For example the EV version of the Transit isn't even going in 10% of Transits, despite being almost a free upcharge and many Transits used in ideal urban environments and owned by government bodies that want to go EV. Same with the Mach E and F150 EV- Despite a lot of PR, the Mach E is one of Ford's slower selling SUVs and the EV version of the F150 isn't take a big share of F150 sales. The ID4 in this market is VW's 2nd worst selling SUV, edged out of last place only by the useless Atlas "Sport", with U.S. dealer deliveries running only about 40K a year.

As for on the ground observations, my rural county of 25K still has maybe a dozen electrics, and most of them plug in hybrids. Despite having Tesla chargers we don't see many. But on a trip to Minneapolis today I saw too many Teslas to count and not one but two Rivians. But the only ID4s I saw were in a VW dealers back lot...

 

[turbobrick240]

I bet there are many more than a dozen or so EVs in your county. The ID4s also don't jump out at you like the Teslas, Rivians, and Taycans do. I've only seen one Rivian in Maine that I can remember, but hundreds of Teslas(see them every day now), a few Taycans, and quite a few Hyundai, Kia, and ID4 EVs. The F150 Lightning will sell massively this decade. I think it will outsell the Cybertruck, in fact.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Dug up the updated data and they show 25 as of first of the year, but they don't break out EVs from PHEVs. Looking at the rural counties of Minnesota southwest of Mankato, with a population of about 160,000 we have only about 200 EVs and PHEVs. I remember 10 years ago when the first EV was sold in this area and for those 10 years I'be been repeatedly told that EV sales were about to take off. Yet a decade in and EVs including PHEVs are nowhere near 1% of the vehicle fleet. This strongly suggest that EVs will never become dominate here like they may in the cities after a decade or three of IC scrapage. If anything, we may see a cutback in EV investment out here as sponsoring agencies figure out how many actual EVs are using their $100+K charging stations, I wouldn't be surprised if in some cases it would have been cheaper to give the user an IC car instead of putting in a charging station for their EV.

 

[nwdiver]

If anything, we may see a cutback in EV investment out here as sponsoring agencies figure out how many actual EVs are using their $100+K charging stations, I wouldn't be surprised if in some cases it would have been cheaper to give the user an IC car instead of putting in a charging station for their EV.

Those '$100+k charging stations' generally aren't for people that live there especially in rural areas where a higher percentage of people live in single family homes. It would be silly for those people to not just charge at home with a charger that cost ~$500 instead of $100,000. They're there to encourage people to visit that area. I helped a McDs owner install charging stations at 3 of his restaurants. He doesn't charge anything to charge. Why? Because it encourages people to go eat there; he gives away $1 in electricity and they buy a $40 meal for the family. Everyone wins except the oil companies and Ruzzia.

Fast chargers serve a similar function. The objective isn't to make money. It's to attract business. Gas stations work in a similar way. That's why Costco sells gas so cheap. It brings people into their stores. According to this article Costco actually sells gas at a loss.

 

[turbobrick240]

Dug up the updated data and they show 25 as of first of the year, but they don't break out EVs from PHEVs. Looking at the rural counties of Minnesota southwest of Mankato, with a population of about 160,000 we have only about 200 EVs and PHEVs. I remember 10 years ago when the first EV was sold in this area and for those 10 years I'be been repeatedly told that EV sales were about to take off. Yet a decade in and EVs including PHEVs are nowhere near 1% of the vehicle fleet. This strongly suggest that EVs will never become dominate here like they may in the cities after a decade or three of IC scrapage.

Damn, I didn't realize MN has like 100 counties! Some pretty colorful names too. Anyhow, just looking at a backwater county in Maine or Minnesota (or even the entire state) is pretty myopic. The change is happening all around us, and it won't be long before it comes to our towns. You'll come to love your EV. Mark my words.

 

[dieseldonato]

I bet there are many more than a dozen or so EVs in your county. The ID4s also don't jump out at you like the Teslas, Rivians, and Taycans do. I've only seen one Rivian in Maine that I can remember, but hundreds of Teslas(see them every day now), a few Taycans, and quite a few Hyundai, Kia, and ID4 EVs. The F150 Lightning will sell massively this decade. I think it will outsell the Cybertruck, in fact.

The f150 lightning is a terrible bad joke of a pickup truck. Even with the largest battery it can barely manage a load of groceries, let alone anything close to its claimed payload without a generator hooked up to it. There have been, many, many reviews on this fatal flaw. It's not taking any market my storm out side of the soccer dad that is trying to virtue signal his manliness. Even the gm hummer ev can manage to go farther with weight behind it, and it's range is pathetic.

 

[JELLOWSUBMARINE]

Hybrids seem to make more sense for us when the wife had to have one. 2019 Prius prime = 50 - 60 mpg hybrid mode. The daily use is within the full EV charge usually, pay bills, runaround, etc... The below are the numbers. In summery

1- $.07 to $.17 a kWh on 110v @ home (full charge 4 hrs)
2- 5 kWh charge storage = 25 to 40 miles = $.35 to $.85 full charge
3- @ $5 a gallon RUG @ 25 to 40 miles = apx. say 1/2 gallon = $2.50
4- equal driving = $2.50 hybrid/
$aves apx $1.65 to $2.15 for 25 to 40 miles


The numbers are way different for a friend who lives in the bay area with a less efficient RAV4. He pays 3 to 5 times the kWh, needs more electrons per mile. This is uncle sams foot in the door to the majority of EV users who are urban @ skyrocketing electric prices. He has found it WAY more cost effection to never plug it in and go hybrid only. Even IF he wanted to leave it blocks away to charge while at work, he has found that the (2 available) spots are more often than not used by other patrons as full day free parking.

Would never own a full EV though. Whole other subject. Ever try to ask hybrid questions on an EV site? Holy xxxx pucker up and run.

 

[turbobrick240]

The f150 lightning is a terrible bad joke of a pickup truck. Even with the largest battery it can barely manage a load of groceries, let alone anything close to its claimed payload without a generator hooked up to it. There have been, many, many reviews on this fatal flaw. It's not taking any market my storm out side of the soccer dad that is trying to virtue signal his manliness. Even the gm hummer ev can manage to go farther with weight behind it, and it's range is pathetic.

Like any new platform, there are bugs to work out. I'm confident it will do well for Ford. People don't buy 1/2 ton pickups for heavy towing duty anyhow. Most of them do amazingly little work that a Golf couldn't do.

 

[dieseldonato]

Like any new platform, there are bugs to work out. I'm confident it will do well for Ford. People don't buy 1/2 ton pickups for heavy towing duty anyhow. Most of them do amazingly little work that a Golf couldn't do.

We're not talking about a bug. We're talking about a worthless truck.

Tow No! The Ford F-150 Lightning Struggled in Our Towing Test

We towed 3100-, 5300-, and 7200-pound travel trailers with Ford’s electric truck and didn’t get very far from home.

www.google.com

Towing With Ford F-150 Lightning A "Total Disaster," Owner Finds

While towing a total of around 3,700 pounds in 55-degree Fahrenheit rainy weather, the Ford F-150 Lightning lost 90 miles of range during a 32-mile drive.

insideevs.com

Mind you it's not hard to find these articles. It's not a truck if it can't haul or tow at least it's minimum rated capacity.
I'm fairly regualry towing between 10-14k lbs. Even if I decide to let my cummins sit and take the big block I can still manage to get over 200 miles on the front tank, averaging 9-10mpg. The f-150 with the extended range battery will make it 90 miles.... better yet, when I know I won't have to tow heavy, I'll take the expedition it gets a whopping 12mpg with 8k lbs behind it driving real nice. I'm perfectly in it tow capacity at that as well. I'll go all but 300 miles before needed to stop for fuel. Ev is great, I'm all for it, but it's not ready and it's not even a competitive to its ic cou teroarts when it come to anything that needs to do real work. A hybrid would have been a much better idea.....

 

[turbobrick240]

Here's a heavily loaded Tesla Semi pulling a grade up Donner Pass, and passing a diesel semi like it's standing still. It will regain a large chunk of that energy descending down the other side.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Damn, I didn't realize MN has like 100 counties! Some pretty colorful names too. Anyhow, just looking at a backwater county in Maine or Minnesota (or even the entire state) is pretty myopic. The change is happening all around us, and it won't be long before it comes to our towns. You'll come to love your EV. Mark my words.

I'd love to have an EV, but I can't afford one- I've done the numbers and the after rebates price of even a Bolt would have to come down to $10K for it to work for me. I need and bought a small van too and their are no EVs in that segment.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Here's a heavily loaded Tesla Semi pulling a grade up Donner Pass, and passing a diesel semi like it's standing still. It will regain a large chunk of that energy descending down the other side.

And there's what, 3 or 4 of them intermittently running? Only a Tesla cultist would fall for their semi as Volvo, Traton, Daimler, and Paccar have working models available for purchase. In fact, Volvo just got an order for over a thousand from Holcim in Europe.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Damn, I didn't realize MN has like 100 counties! Some pretty colorful names too. Anyhow, just looking at a backwater county in Maine or Minnesota (or even the entire state) is pretty myopic. The change is happening all around us, and it won't be long before it comes to our towns. You'll come to love your EV. Mark my words.

The pace of EV change here is so slow that it may not even be happening. The first EV in southwest Minnesota was delivered 10 years ago and even the delivery was a challenge, dealer I bought my last 2 TDIs from sold it and it ran out of juice on the 60 mile delivery run! After 10 years EVs here have probably multiplied by 100 fold but they're still barely .1% of the vehicle fleet here. So even given the same 100x acceleration of EV percentage in the fleet they'll maybe be 8% EVs in the fleet in another decade. Growth beyond that 8% will be difficult simply because it will require selling EVs into segments where even the advocates admit they won't work like heavy duty pickups, vans, and larger trucks. So makes more sense to ignore the EV cultists and see EVs as part of the global warming solution along with plug in hybrids and renewable fuels.

 

[dieseldonato]

Here's a heavily loaded Tesla Semi pulling a grade up Donner Pass, and passing a diesel semi like it's standing still. It will regain a large chunk of that energy descending down the other side.

even more worthless in the range department and can't even haul the same weight as a diesel powered semi. Everyone wants to point out all the power the ev have, and all that extra power does is burn up the charge faster. Sorry, not sorry, it's years away from being a viable option.

 

[turbobrick240]

even more worthless in the range department and can't even haul the same weight as a diesel powered semi. Everyone wants to point out all the power the ev have, and all that extra power does is burn up the charge faster. Sorry, not sorry, it's years away from being a viable option.

They go 500 miles with a full 82k lb. That's plenty for 2/3 of trucking routes in this country today. Pepsi/Frito Lay is already saving bundles on fuel and maintenance with their fleet of electric semis. Maintenance costs (and associated downtime costs) alone on a fleet of today's diesel semis is staggering.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Truckers look at that Tesla truck racing up the pass and have a different verdict... The truck is overpowered and overweight. There are legends among truck drivers of the V12 Detroits, KT Cummins, and V8 Cat diesels but they've all gone pretty much extinct in trucking because trucking is a business and they prefer to carry more payload at lesser cost to showing off on the upgrades. Tesla's being quiet about the weight, and even with the 2000 extra pounds federal law allows electric trucks they can't compete on payload if you want the battery capacity for the allowed 11 hours of daily driving. As for the "fleet" of Pepsico Teslas, truckers have been following them, it looks like there's only 2, and they're frequently seen being towed by diesel trucks...

 

[dieseldonato]

They go 500 miles with a full 82k lb. That's plenty for 2/3 of trucking routes in this country today. Pepsi/Frito Lay is already saving bundles on fuel and maintenance with their fleet of electric semis. Maintenance costs (and associated downtime costs) alone on a fleet of today's diesel semis is staggering.

even PepsiCo won't disclose what real world millage is. The last article I read about the Tesla trucks were, they are only used for short range trips and not loaded close to their max weight so they can be recharged after a trip. They use cng powered Volvos for their long haul operations. btw just about any diesel semi can triple that range. Also, like I said before it can't haul as much weight as a diesel powered semi. The Tesla truck weighs more then the diesel powered truck. Ie can't haul as much weight. But it's electric so your getting an additional 2k lbs because the feds want electric so bad. We can move on the charging... wait that infilstructure doesn't exist yet. Ok, that old chestnut eventually they will get there. No one knows what the maintenance costs are, it's reported Tesla is doing the maintenance free of charge for PepsiCo/lays. A disease powered truck goes for 10k miles at least before needing an oil change and hundreds of thousands of miles before much of anything else is needed. It's all virtue signaling at this point. When like can actually replace the capabilities of like then I'll get excited about it. Till then it's a waste of space.

 

[dieseldonato]

Truckers look at that Tesla truck racing up the pass and have a different verdict... The truck is overpowered and overweight. There are legends among truck drivers of the V12 Detroits, KT Cummins, and V8 Cat diesels but they've all gone pretty much extinct in trucking because trucking is a business and they prefer to carry more payload at lesser cost to showing off on the upgrades. Tesla's being quiet about the weight, and even with the 2000 extra pounds federal law allows electric trucks they can't compete on payload if you want the battery capacity for the allowed 11 hours of daily driving. As for the "fleet" of Pepsico Teslas, truckers have been following them, it looks like there's only 2, and they're frequently seen being towed by diesel trucks...

Beat me to it... yes the big V engines all died out 15-20 years ago now and took the 19L cummins with it. Replaced by 15L and more typically 12-13L and even smaller 9L engines depending on application. One of the big topics at last year's towman show in Baltimore was ev rescue and emergency charging. Lots of calls for stranded cars. One of the "portable charger" ie gas/ diesel.powered generator unveiled its latest gadget which was a 150kw diesel generator on a small trailer.... it was cool buy made a lot of us laugh... another need for gas/diesel to power an electric vehicle.

 

[turbobrick240]

Truckers look at that Tesla truck racing up the pass and have a different verdict... The truck is overpowered and overweight. There are legends among truck drivers of the V12 Detroits, KT Cummins, and V8 Cat diesels but they've all gone pretty much extinct in trucking because trucking is a business and they prefer to carry more payload at lesser cost to showing off on the upgrades. Tesla's being quiet about the weight, and even with the 2000 extra pounds federal law allows electric trucks they can't compete on payload if you want the battery capacity for the allowed 11 hours of daily driving. As for the "fleet" of Pepsico Teslas, truckers have been following them, it looks like there's only 2, and they're frequently seen being towed by diesel trucks...

PepsiCo has at least 54 of the electric Semis in operation today. With more getting delivered on a regular basis. They have a max payload of 44k lbs, which is enough for more than 90% of the loads on the road. They are being bought by fleet operators, not truck drivers.

The Semis Keep Rolling In For Tesla: PepsiCo Takes 18 More Semis For Delivery

We have word that PepsiCo has taken delivery of 18 more Tesla Semis

www-torquenews-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[oilhammer]

Seems odd that Tesla does not use their own trucks to deliver their own cars. Do they themselves not believe in them? Or is the short term gain of profits more important than long term usefulness?

The local Tesla [car] rescue truck is still a diesel powered F250+trailer. It stays busy.

 

[turbobrick240]

Seems odd that Tesla does not use their own trucks to deliver their own cars. Do they themselves not believe in them? Or is the short term gain of profits more important than long term usefulness?

The local Tesla [car] rescue truck is still a diesel powered F250+trailer. It stays busy.

They do. They just don't have nearly enough to meet demand yet. They're going to be opening up a full production facility for the Semi in Nevada quite soon. Then it's off to the races.

 

[oilhammer]

I wish they'd put the freight back on rails, we don't need any MORE semi trucks on the Interstates, I don't care how they are powered.