2/3rds EVs by 2032... Realistic? (and time to horde diesels?)

[dieseldonato]

Like any new platform, there are bugs to work out. I'm confident it will do well for Ford. People don't buy 1/2 ton pickups for heavy towing duty anyhow. Most of them do amazingly little work that a Golf couldn't do.

We're not talking about a bug. We're talking about a worthless truck.

Tow No! The Ford F-150 Lightning Struggled in Our Towing Test

We towed 3100-, 5300-, and 7200-pound travel trailers with Ford’s electric truck and didn’t get very far from home.

www.google.com

Towing With Ford F-150 Lightning A "Total Disaster," Owner Finds

While towing a total of around 3,700 pounds in 55-degree Fahrenheit rainy weather, the Ford F-150 Lightning lost 90 miles of range during a 32-mile drive.

insideevs.com

Mind you it's not hard to find these articles. It's not a truck if it can't haul or tow at least it's minimum rated capacity.
I'm fairly regualry towing between 10-14k lbs. Even if I decide to let my cummins sit and take the big block I can still manage to get over 200 miles on the front tank, averaging 9-10mpg. The f-150 with the extended range battery will make it 90 miles.... better yet, when I know I won't have to tow heavy, I'll take the expedition it gets a whopping 12mpg with 8k lbs behind it driving real nice. I'm perfectly in it tow capacity at that as well. I'll go all but 300 miles before needed to stop for fuel. Ev is great, I'm all for it, but it's not ready and it's not even a competitive to its ic cou teroarts when it come to anything that needs to do real work. A hybrid would have been a much better idea.....

 

[turbobrick240]

Here's a heavily loaded Tesla Semi pulling a grade up Donner Pass, and passing a diesel semi like it's standing still. It will regain a large chunk of that energy descending down the other side.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Damn, I didn't realize MN has like 100 counties! Some pretty colorful names too. Anyhow, just looking at a backwater county in Maine or Minnesota (or even the entire state) is pretty myopic. The change is happening all around us, and it won't be long before it comes to our towns. You'll come to love your EV. Mark my words.

I'd love to have an EV, but I can't afford one- I've done the numbers and the after rebates price of even a Bolt would have to come down to $10K for it to work for me. I need and bought a small van too and their are no EVs in that segment.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Here's a heavily loaded Tesla Semi pulling a grade up Donner Pass, and passing a diesel semi like it's standing still. It will regain a large chunk of that energy descending down the other side.

And there's what, 3 or 4 of them intermittently running? Only a Tesla cultist would fall for their semi as Volvo, Traton, Daimler, and Paccar have working models available for purchase. In fact, Volvo just got an order for over a thousand from Holcim in Europe.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Damn, I didn't realize MN has like 100 counties! Some pretty colorful names too. Anyhow, just looking at a backwater county in Maine or Minnesota (or even the entire state) is pretty myopic. The change is happening all around us, and it won't be long before it comes to our towns. You'll come to love your EV. Mark my words.

The pace of EV change here is so slow that it may not even be happening. The first EV in southwest Minnesota was delivered 10 years ago and even the delivery was a challenge, dealer I bought my last 2 TDIs from sold it and it ran out of juice on the 60 mile delivery run! After 10 years EVs here have probably multiplied by 100 fold but they're still barely .1% of the vehicle fleet here. So even given the same 100x acceleration of EV percentage in the fleet they'll maybe be 8% EVs in the fleet in another decade. Growth beyond that 8% will be difficult simply because it will require selling EVs into segments where even the advocates admit they won't work like heavy duty pickups, vans, and larger trucks. So makes more sense to ignore the EV cultists and see EVs as part of the global warming solution along with plug in hybrids and renewable fuels.

 

[dieseldonato]

Here's a heavily loaded Tesla Semi pulling a grade up Donner Pass, and passing a diesel semi like it's standing still. It will regain a large chunk of that energy descending down the other side.

even more worthless in the range department and can't even haul the same weight as a diesel powered semi. Everyone wants to point out all the power the ev have, and all that extra power does is burn up the charge faster. Sorry, not sorry, it's years away from being a viable option.

 

[turbobrick240]

even more worthless in the range department and can't even haul the same weight as a diesel powered semi. Everyone wants to point out all the power the ev have, and all that extra power does is burn up the charge faster. Sorry, not sorry, it's years away from being a viable option.

They go 500 miles with a full 82k lb. That's plenty for 2/3 of trucking routes in this country today. Pepsi/Frito Lay is already saving bundles on fuel and maintenance with their fleet of electric semis. Maintenance costs (and associated downtime costs) alone on a fleet of today's diesel semis is staggering.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Truckers look at that Tesla truck racing up the pass and have a different verdict... The truck is overpowered and overweight. There are legends among truck drivers of the V12 Detroits, KT Cummins, and V8 Cat diesels but they've all gone pretty much extinct in trucking because trucking is a business and they prefer to carry more payload at lesser cost to showing off on the upgrades. Tesla's being quiet about the weight, and even with the 2000 extra pounds federal law allows electric trucks they can't compete on payload if you want the battery capacity for the allowed 11 hours of daily driving. As for the "fleet" of Pepsico Teslas, truckers have been following them, it looks like there's only 2, and they're frequently seen being towed by diesel trucks...

 

[dieseldonato]

They go 500 miles with a full 82k lb. That's plenty for 2/3 of trucking routes in this country today. Pepsi/Frito Lay is already saving bundles on fuel and maintenance with their fleet of electric semis. Maintenance costs (and associated downtime costs) alone on a fleet of today's diesel semis is staggering.

even PepsiCo won't disclose what real world millage is. The last article I read about the Tesla trucks were, they are only used for short range trips and not loaded close to their max weight so they can be recharged after a trip. They use cng powered Volvos for their long haul operations. btw just about any diesel semi can triple that range. Also, like I said before it can't haul as much weight as a diesel powered semi. The Tesla truck weighs more then the diesel powered truck. Ie can't haul as much weight. But it's electric so your getting an additional 2k lbs because the feds want electric so bad. We can move on the charging... wait that infilstructure doesn't exist yet. Ok, that old chestnut eventually they will get there. No one knows what the maintenance costs are, it's reported Tesla is doing the maintenance free of charge for PepsiCo/lays. A disease powered truck goes for 10k miles at least before needing an oil change and hundreds of thousands of miles before much of anything else is needed. It's all virtue signaling at this point. When like can actually replace the capabilities of like then I'll get excited about it. Till then it's a waste of space.

 

[dieseldonato]

Truckers look at that Tesla truck racing up the pass and have a different verdict... The truck is overpowered and overweight. There are legends among truck drivers of the V12 Detroits, KT Cummins, and V8 Cat diesels but they've all gone pretty much extinct in trucking because trucking is a business and they prefer to carry more payload at lesser cost to showing off on the upgrades. Tesla's being quiet about the weight, and even with the 2000 extra pounds federal law allows electric trucks they can't compete on payload if you want the battery capacity for the allowed 11 hours of daily driving. As for the "fleet" of Pepsico Teslas, truckers have been following them, it looks like there's only 2, and they're frequently seen being towed by diesel trucks...

Beat me to it... yes the big V engines all died out 15-20 years ago now and took the 19L cummins with it. Replaced by 15L and more typically 12-13L and even smaller 9L engines depending on application. One of the big topics at last year's towman show in Baltimore was ev rescue and emergency charging. Lots of calls for stranded cars. One of the "portable charger" ie gas/ diesel.powered generator unveiled its latest gadget which was a 150kw diesel generator on a small trailer.... it was cool buy made a lot of us laugh... another need for gas/diesel to power an electric vehicle.

 

[turbobrick240]

Truckers look at that Tesla truck racing up the pass and have a different verdict... The truck is overpowered and overweight. There are legends among truck drivers of the V12 Detroits, KT Cummins, and V8 Cat diesels but they've all gone pretty much extinct in trucking because trucking is a business and they prefer to carry more payload at lesser cost to showing off on the upgrades. Tesla's being quiet about the weight, and even with the 2000 extra pounds federal law allows electric trucks they can't compete on payload if you want the battery capacity for the allowed 11 hours of daily driving. As for the "fleet" of Pepsico Teslas, truckers have been following them, it looks like there's only 2, and they're frequently seen being towed by diesel trucks...

PepsiCo has at least 54 of the electric Semis in operation today. With more getting delivered on a regular basis. They have a max payload of 44k lbs, which is enough for more than 90% of the loads on the road. They are being bought by fleet operators, not truck drivers.

The Semis Keep Rolling In For Tesla: PepsiCo Takes 18 More Semis For Delivery

We have word that PepsiCo has taken delivery of 18 more Tesla Semis

www-torquenews-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[oilhammer]

Seems odd that Tesla does not use their own trucks to deliver their own cars. Do they themselves not believe in them? Or is the short term gain of profits more important than long term usefulness?

The local Tesla [car] rescue truck is still a diesel powered F250+trailer. It stays busy.

 

[turbobrick240]

Seems odd that Tesla does not use their own trucks to deliver their own cars. Do they themselves not believe in them? Or is the short term gain of profits more important than long term usefulness?

The local Tesla [car] rescue truck is still a diesel powered F250+trailer. It stays busy.

They do. They just don't have nearly enough to meet demand yet. They're going to be opening up a full production facility for the Semi in Nevada quite soon. Then it's off to the races.

 

[oilhammer]

I wish they'd put the freight back on rails, we don't need any MORE semi trucks on the Interstates, I don't care how they are powered.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

even PepsiCo won't disclose what real world millage is. The last article I read about the Tesla trucks were, they are only used for short range trips and not loaded close to their max weight so they can be recharged after a trip. They use cng powered Volvos for their long haul operations. btw just about any diesel semi can triple that range. Also, like I said before it can't haul as much weight as a diesel powered semi. The Tesla truck weighs more then the diesel powered truck. Ie can't haul as much weight. But it's electric so your getting an additional 2k lbs because the feds want electric so bad. We can move on the charging... wait that infilstructure doesn't exist yet. Ok, that old chestnut eventually they will get there. No one knows what the maintenance costs are, it's reported Tesla is doing the maintenance free of charge for PepsiCo/lays. A disease powered truck goes for 10k miles at least before needing an oil change and hundreds of thousands of miles before much of anything else is needed. It's all virtue signaling at this point. When like can actually replace the capabilities of like then I'll get excited about it. Till then it's a waste of space.

Thanks for pointing out the real success story of PepsiCo's fleet, the CNG powered trucks which have been quietly delivering the goods with lower costs and GHG while the PR operation franticly tries to keep a Tesla running for the photo ops!

 

[gulfcoastguy]

I wish they'd put the freight back on rails, we don't need any MORE semi trucks on the Interstates, I don't care how they are powered.

I found something that I agree with you on. I will go further and say that most of the freight railways converted to bike paths should be reconverted. Then the railways should be electrified. That makes them agnostic on the source of electricity while being 20 times as efficient as trucks.

 

[turbobrick240]

I wish they'd put the freight back on rails, we don't need any MORE semi trucks on the Interstates, I don't care how they are powered.

Rail is good, but the electric Semis will be directly displacing diesel semis, so won't really be adding trucks to the roads. Rail should be displacing OTR trucking, but there are a number of logistical reasons that make trucks attractive to shippers.

 

[oilhammer]

Well if the electric semi truck idea is so fantastic, it will make them (trucks) MORE plentiful on the road, not less.

 

[turbobrick240]

That may be true. Who's to say that fully electrified rail won't also become much more competitive. But those same logistical advantages of trucking will remain.

 

[oilhammer]

I don't care if a team of thousands of cocaine-fed squirrels is pulling the train, I just miss the days of not having to weave in and out and around semi trucks clogging up I44 every day like I do now. Really stupid to see lines of them passing a vacant rail line that runs right alongside.

Taking something that is stupid, and making it [supposedly] cheaper and easier, doesn't fix the stupid.

The electric F150 is a good example of a solution to a problem that is only a problem because of stupidity. Because we certainly need more overpowered yet speed limited empty full sized pickups with giant cabs, long wheelbases, and tiny beds all over the roads, too.

I pass all those dolts, too. Funny when that 105 MPH speed limiter on some micro-penis guy's new Ram gets slapped down by a 23 year Golf with most of its paint gone.

Full disclosure: I love both my F-trucks. But I use them when I need them, not to drive around with empty. The 8ft bed on the F150 also insures I'm not the D-bag at Home Depot trying to figure out a way to stuff 10ft lumber in my 5.5ft bed.

 

[TomJD]

Not to mention the massive increase in road damage from the added weight of more semis and EVs.

 

[turbobrick240]

Not to mention the massive increase in road damage from the added weight of more semis and EVs.

Probably a draw when you factor in the reduction of asphalt damage caused by fuel and oil leaks. I know the Austin roadways turn into Mario kart after a decent rain if you don't have good tires. Lots of leakers driving around down there.

 

[wxman]

The massive amount of resources needed to manufacture electric semis relative to diesel semis precludes much environmental benefit for them, including GHG emissions.

 

[jmodge]

I'll definitely agree with putting freight on rails. Especially since they seem to put any video game champ behind the wheel of a rolling assault weapon nowadays. M57, A simple straight road running east and west to US131, semi truck rearends a car turning left, pinballs that car head on into an ambulance. ***? I'm pulling up to a light turning red at a major intersection and a semi blasts through the amber coming from the other way. Light was red as he went through it. I'm glad no one decided to jump out as soon as the light turned green, they might have ended up in my lap. Good thing there are still people who look both ways before crossing the street or slow down when they are coming to a congested area.
But, this is the generation that will influence the future more than mine. If they want to use "Megasites," or better known as large tracts of pristine wilderness, as locations for their battery plants rather than redeveloping dilapidated areas of Detroit, St. Louis, etc., oh well. I think overpopulation is going to get solved by people outsmarting themselves with machinery that thinks for itself so they don't have to pay attention to what's going outside their computors.

 

[jmodge]

Neighboring trees won't loot the factory or kill its workers on the way home.

Another downside I missed

 

[turbobrick240]

Pepsi’s Tesla Semi Trucks Will Change Cargo Haulage Forever

Many have been skeptical that batteries would work for long-distance road freight transport. Pepsi's new Tesla Semis are about to prove them wrong.

www.forbes.com

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

"Forbes" doesn't have much credit in the trucking industry, they prefer "Fleet Owner".

 

[turbobrick240]

They probably prefer Asian Massage Monthly, but that's not of great import.

With Tesla Semi, the 500-mile run is a new benchmark

Last week, Tesla delivered its first battery-electric heavy-duty vehicle, the Semi, to PepsiCo. The long-awaited delivery (Tesla CEO Elon Musk initially promised delivery in 2019...

www.fleetowner.com

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Quit insulting truckers and anyone else who hasn't joined your Tesla cult. There's actually quite a bit of science in trucking, for example there's a group of truckers trying to achieve 9 MPG with 18 wheelers on Facebook and some of them are getting 10 and better.

 

[turbobrick240]

Not insulting, just poking fun. Whichever trucker solves the scientific dilemma of how to get a load of Coors from Texarkana to Atlanta in 28 hours will probably win the Nobel Prize.