2/3rds EVs by 2032... Realistic? (and time to horde diesels?)

[Daemon64]

I'm in the same boat- haven't added any storage to my PV setup yet. Net metering is working well for now. Ultimately, I'd like to go completely off-grid once battery costs drop by 75% or so. Maybe sodium ion will be the dominant storage battery by then.

vehicle to grid might be my solution to that. In the future but for now the panels I have are offsetting my electricity usage.

 

[Tin Man]

I'm worried about the economic impact of many of the carbon-related arguments, especially the costs involved. China and other countries are gaining industrial capacity and market share while building more coal-fired plants than ever. Sure seems to me there needs to be a free-market boost to any clean energy which has not occurred yet (i.e. no subsidies). If our economy suffers, so will our capacity for research and development of needed solutions.

Why not put a carbon tax on everything including imports from countries not so motivated to go carbon-neutral?

My $.02.

 

[jmodge]

2/3rds EV’s by 2032, 9 years. I wouldn’t say impossible, but it doesn’t seem likely to me. Does anyone know their market share now and what percentage of EV’s manufactured are actually sold?

 

[turbobrick240]

The EV market share nation wide was about 6% last year. In California it was close to 19%. The numbers have been trending rapidly upward over the last 5 years.

Analysis: Boosting EV market share to 67% of new sales is a huge leap, but automakers can rise to the challenge

Automakers typically push back against tougher rules and often lobby to get standards relaxed. However, U.S. car companies have also shown that they can meet ambitious goals.

www-pbs-org.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[braddies]

More correctly it is what plants breath. Because we don't consider oxygen as food. It is a pollutant due to the warming effect. Just like many other things that come out of the tailpipe of cars. The point being is if we can reduce such particulate in existing cars it's massive and while giving these vehicles a better fuel for the boom is always a good thing. Win win

With plants "breathing" (transpiration) the effect is a seperation of the oxygen from the carbon, ecarbon is stored in the trees tissue as "wood" and the oxygen is released into our atmosphere

 

[jmodge]

I could see it in certain markets. I think it’s a reach to expect it will happen across the board that quick. Investors for infrastructure are essential. Perhaps if the oil and gas industry started investing (maybe they do?) into alternative energy, their profits could be transferred to where a nationwide charging infrastructure could be feasible. If not I would think both sides of that coin could suffer.
Supply and demand can be altered by low fuel costs. But if the government really wants to squeeze towards electric...., government runs on threats more than action, in my experience. It will be interesting to watch.

 

[JELLOWSUBMARINE]

Nope. Not missed. Named after the guy that discovered it. Milankovitch cycles. Cold ocean water is more soluble to CO2. CO2 cycled between the oceans and atmosphere. When there is more CO2 in the atmosphere this increases radiative forcing amplifying the tiny warming caused by the shift in Earths orbit. Not the sun. The sun doesn't have a cycle that would explain the Ice Ages.



The whole premise of 'The tragedy of the commons' is 'forcing' people to do something that's not in their individual self-interest to promote our collective interest.

The idea government stands in the way of innovation ignores all of history. .... are you not familiar with how VW was founded? Do you think we'd have Nuclear power without the Manhattan Project? To this day there isn't a single private source of enriched Uranium and not thru lack of trying. The internet started as a DARPA project. Do you like GPS? Should we not have cheap natural gas from fracking? That was a 30 year DOE project. Weather forecasting? Solar is only affordable because the German and Chinese governments scaled it to levels the private sector could only fantasize about. Etc, etc, etc.....

Oh xxxx,
here goes @ nwdiver stoking a good thread out of existance again again. Wasnt your last time out enough? We get you sold your 03 and have a Tesla now.
Lets refocus please.
"2/3rds EVs by 2032... Realistic? (and time to horde diesels?)"

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Let him say his piece... It's not going to change any minds here. We don't have the infrastructure for electric cars out here and may never have, and if I ever get to buy an electric car it sure as hell won't be a Tesla!

 

[turbodieseldyke]

Someone needs to sell their Tesla, replace it with a TDI, then go into EV forums and sidetrack all their threads by telling them The Future Is Fueloil, ad nauseum. What's the over/under on the tolerance that commenter would receive?

 

[nwdiver]

We don't have the infrastructure for electric cars out here and may never have,

Where is 'out here'? If there's electricity you have the infrastructure for electric cars. Even places without electricity it's not hard to add it.

Off-Grid Solar Charging For EV Cars In Parking Lots Makes More Sense Than You Might Think

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

I've already priced it out and it's no where near competitive- To have off grid charging, battery storage 'cause solar capacity factor is only about 20%, and the cheapest electric car would cost about $100K. The solar panels might last 20 years, but battery storage and the electric cars battery life will probably be closer to 10. And given that I'm in high wind area a wind turbine would make more sense, but why compete with the big wind farm operators who are signing contracts for less than a penny a KWH? Makes more sense to maximize use of renewable fuels until the electric companies can reliably supply clean electricity.

 

[nwdiver]

I've already priced it out and it's no where near competitive- To have off grid charging, battery storage 'cause solar capacity factor is only about 20%, and the cheapest electric car would cost about $100K. The solar panels might last 20 years, but battery storage and the electric cars battery life will probably be closer to 10. And given that I'm in high wind area a wind turbine would make more sense, but why compete with the big wind farm operators who are signing contracts for less than a penny a KWH? Makes more sense to maximize use of renewable fuels until the electric companies can reliably supply clean electricity.

??? Where are you getting the idea that the cheapest electric car is ~$100k? There's a wide selection available for less than half that.

If you're in an area with abundant wind doesn't wind energy at less than a penny per kWh beat any renewable fuel by ~95%? For a 50mpg car that's the equivalent of ~$0.17 per gallon. Why not use that?

If you look at the available feedstocks aren't we already pretty much maximizing our use of renewable fuels? Why does it need to be reliable if you're using clean energy to charge a battery (EVs are batteries)? Isn't that the whole point of having batteries? To buffer the unreliability?

 

[oilhammer]

I thought she got booted? Or was it just temporary?

 

[turbobrick240]

I've already priced it out and it's no where near competitive- To have off grid charging, battery storage 'cause solar capacity factor is only about 20%, and the cheapest electric car would cost about $100K. The solar panels might last 20 years, but battery storage and the electric cars battery life will probably be closer to 10. And given that I'm in high wind area a wind turbine would make more sense, but why compete with the big wind farm operators who are signing contracts for less than a penny a KWH? Makes more sense to maximize use of renewable fuels until the electric companies can reliably supply clean electricity.

It's not difficult to factor in the capacity factor when sizing your PV system. You'd have to do that with a wind turbine as well. Solar is super cheap now if you're a DIY kind of person. And batteries are getting cheaper (and better) all the time. You don't have to go off grid with solar or wind- most states have some type of net metering.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

First off the grid here fails at least once a month and probably wouldn't support charging two electric cars at once, so my own power source would be needed for me to use an electric car. I've had situations where I have to drive the range of an electric car on back to back days, so I'd need 5 times the battery capacity of the electric car in both generating capacity and probably more in storage. 50 KWH is a small electric car battery and that's 4 Tesla power walls at about $50K. Figuring on an average 12 hour day times that 20% CF I'd need about 20KW solar panel capacity at the going price of $3-4/Watt and were looking at $60-80K there. Add it up and I'd have to spend over $100K just to get the capability to run an electric car here, plus the cost of the electric car. Keep in mind too that these batteries and solar cells have a life only 10-20 years before they have to be expensively replaced... Going solar to get "free" electricity is damn expensive!

Meanwhile, the 20 year old TDI I paid $17K for new is ready for more...

 

[turbobrick240]

Sorry, but none of those numbers are accurate. The capacity factor is based on a 24 hour day first of all. And if you can't afford one $25-30k EV, why do you expect to need to charge two? There are cheaper battery storage options than a Powerwall, but you really don't need batteries if you have a grid connection. With third world like grid service, you're an ideal candidate for solar/wind. I assume you already have a backup generator that gets used frequently.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

I need extra capacity to compensate for solar's miserable 20% CF and the fact that I often need to drive hundreds of miles on back to back days. My backup generators are TDIs with 12V DC to 120V AC inverters, if I got an electric car then I'd need a big diesel generator.

 

[jmodge]

Electric cars were very popular when I was a kid. There were two places within walking distance you could rent one or bring your own to race on a multi lane track, not to mention the track in our basement. Alas, history repeated itself and the electric car fad faded away, I miss electric cars Now I just stick with the old dependable historic standby, LONG LIVE DIESELS

 

[turbobrick240]

I need extra capacity to compensate for solar's miserable 20% CF and the fact that I often need to drive hundreds of miles on back to back days. My backup generators are TDIs with 12V DC to 120V AC inverters, if I got an electric car then I'd need a big diesel generator.

The capacity factor isn't a problem when you can get a pallet of mono-crystalline panels that last 25-30 years for dirt cheap. Of course you still need a property with an area that has some decent sun exposure. I typically use my car as the backup power too. Not worth dragging out the 6kW genset for half a day. I only lose power a few times per year, fortunately.

 

[nwdiver]

TDIs

Why have 2 TDIs? Or why would you replace both? Why not 1 TDI for the rare occasion you need to drive 'hundreds of miles back to back' which also corresponds with a power outage and an EV for the other ~99.99% of miles?

 

[gmenounos]

Someone needs to sell their Tesla, replace it with a TDI, then go into EV forums and sidetrack all their threads by telling them The Future Is Fueloil, ad nauseum. What's the over/under on the tolerance that commenter would receive?

Even though I've owned a TDI for over 20 years, I didn't buy it because I had some innate love for the diesel engine. I bought it because I had just started a longer commute and wanted to save some money on gas. I also figured it was better for the environment. And I grew to like the car a lot, enough that 14 years ago I bought another one. But when it became time to replace one of the TDIs, I bought an EV, because I believe that is the future. At some point when I can't keep the Golf running anymore, I'll probably get another EV, but until then I'm happy with one TDI and one EV, and like probably a few others here, I don't mind also hearing about EVs (at least in threads with "EV" in the title). Like TDIs, they're cheap to fuel and have good torque.

 

[JELLOWSUBMARINE]

vrs

I thought she got booted? Or was it just temporary?

The slightest mention of electric.... guaranteed there it goes

 

[turbobrick240]

Global demand for EVs is growing:

Demand for electric cars is booming, with sales expected to leap 35% this year after a record-breaking 2022 - News - IEA

Demand for electric cars is booming, with sales expected to leap 35% this year after a record-breaking 2022 - News from the International Energy Agency

www.iea.org

 

[Andyinchville1]

yeah i just wish those could actually be used in modern diesels w/ DPF. From what I understand biofuel is a no go at all in those situations. When my lease is up on the P2 in 23 months and counting down, I'm going for a 2018 BMW 328D XDrive. I looked into making my own biodiesel and every thing i read basically said if I'm emissions equipment intact on this, or a golf or etc, it will just kill the emissions components.

Can any of you diesel gearheads comment on this? If I could find a reliable source of Syn Diesel, or bio-diesel that would work for my application I'd be running towards it in due time.

I have looked into making bio diesel from veggie oil but my lo tech brain cannot figure that all out ..... I'd be more along the lines all mechanical engine (or at least non common rail) burning W85 as an additive (85% Waste oil 15% gas mixed and centrifuged ).

I think that would be easier to do BUT I have heard through burning old tires / plastics in a distillation tower a person can make actual Diesel and other fractions ( I would love to be able to buy a system to do that (they actually sell them ) BUT big $$,,
(pyrolysis I think is the process name).

Andrew

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Why have 2 TDIs? Or why would you replace both? Why not 1 TDI for the rare occasion you need to drive 'hundreds of miles back to back' which also corresponds with a power outage and an EV for the other ~99.99% of miles?

2nd TDI is a spare. I've researched electric cars and for my application they won't work.

 

[gulfcoastguy]

Even though I've owned a TDI for over 20 years, I didn't buy it because I had some innate love for the diesel engine. I bought it because I had just started a longer commute and wanted to save some money on gas. I also figured it was better for the environment. And I grew to like the car a lot, enough that 14 years ago I bought another one. But when it became time to replace one of the TDIs, I bought an EV, because I believe that is the future. At some point when I can't keep the Golf running anymore, I'll probably get another EV, but until then I'm happy with one TDI and one EV, and like probably a few others here, I don't mind also hearing about EVs (at least in threads with "EV" in the title). Like TDIs, they're cheap to fuel and have good torque.

Especially in a subforum labeled General Automotive. A question could be asked about discussing VW TDI’s when a subforum devoted to VW automotive exists:

 

[jmodge]

0A359463-A744-4DB6-B682-150297B9D40A.jpeg

• jmodge
• Jun 4, 2023

EV

Here is what I believe is an EV, son took the pic in Amsterdam. Not likely to see anything like this in our country. It would be the ticket for traveling in town, maybe someday, but not by 2032 in this country. Supply and demand is the main driving force. Nowhere I go do I see or hear 2/3 of the crowd demanding EV’s, irregardless of what a media story may say. Doubt it will get there in 9 years, Definitely more than one of three people I know are not getting an EV.

 

[turbobrick240]

EV sales rose to 62% of market share in Sweden last month. Diesel sales have absolutely cratered there over the last few years.

Sweden Hits 62% Plugin EV Market Share In May, Tesla Model Y High - CleanTechnica

Plugin electric vehicles saw strong growth in market share in Sweden, taking 61.9% of the market, from 47.5% in May 2022. Sweden Tesla High!

cleantechnica-com.cdn.ampproject.org

And 89% of new cars sold in Norway last month came with a charging port:

Tesla Model Y outsells 2nd place ID.4 by 4x in Norway, 97% electrified in May

Monthly Norwegian auto sales numbers are in, showing once again how heavily dominant EVs are in the country, with one...

electrek.co

.

 

[x1800MODMY360x]

One reason I won't get an EV. I ask my Uncle who is a Paramedic Firefighter, If the fire doesn't kill you, it's the toxic fumes that will.

1 Week for EV Fire to be put out!

 

[turbobrick240]

One reason I won't get an EV. I ask my Uncle who is a Paramedic Firefighter, If the fire doesn't kill you, it's the toxic fumes that will.

1 Week for EV Fire to be put out!

If you're under 50, you'll own an EV. You just don't realize it yet.